3 Picks: Eyes on the American League

Thursday, August 23: Jake Westbrook (4-7)(CLE) vs. Nate Robertson (7-10)(DET)

There's no way I would have anticipated losing records for both of these starters back in April. Two starters having off-years go at it in this one.

Indians 3, Tigers 1 (10)

(Win Probability graphing by Fangraphs)
Indians player of the game: (SP) Jake Westbrook - WPA +.563
8.0IP, 5H, 0R, 0ER, 2BB, 3SO, 0HR
Indians lowest contributor: (RF) Franklin Gutierrez - WPA -.320
0/4, 0R, 0HR, 0RBI, 0BB, 2SO

Tigers player of the game: (SP) Nate Robertson - WPA +.600
8.2IP, 4H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 3SO, 0HR
Tigers lowest contributor: (RP) Joel Zumaya - WPA -.358
1.0IP, 3H, 3R, 3ER, 2BB, 1SO, 0HR

Jake Westbrook: 8.0IP, 5H, 0R, 0ER, 2BB, 3SO, 0HR - ND
Rafael Perez: 0.1IP, 0H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 1SO, 0BB - W
Joe Borowski: 1.0IP, 3H, 1R, 1ER, 0BB, 0SO, 0HR - SV

Nate Robertson: 8.2IP, 4H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 3SO, 0HR - ND
Joel Zumaya: 1.0IP, 3H, 3R, 3ER, 2BB, 1SO, 0HR - L

A rough end to a well pitched game. This victory puts the Tribe 2 1/2 games over the Tigers in the division race. It figures that this would be the day I put Zumaya on the fantasy roster...

Friday, August 24: CC Sabathia (14-6)(CLE) vs. Zack Greinke (5-5)(KC)

Greinke returns as a starter in this one. Which is a good sign as there's plenty of reason to build the Royals' future around his talent.

Indians 1, Royals 2

(Win Probability graphing by Fangraphs)
Indians player of the game: (2B) Asdrubal Cabrera - WPA +.188
2/3, 0R, 0HR, 0RBI, 0BB, 0SO
Indians lowest contributor: (3B) Casey Blake - WPA -.189
0/4, 0R, 0HR, 0RBI, 0BB, 0SO

Royals player of the game: (RP) John Bale - WPA +.204
3.0IP, 2H, 0R 0ER, 0BB, 5SO, 0HR
Royals lowest contributor: (C) John Buck - WPA -.084
0/3, 0R, 0HR, 0RBI, 0BB, 0SO

CC Sabathia: 8.0IP, 5H, 2R, 2ER, 2BB, 6SO, 0HR - L

Zack Greinke: 3.0IP, 1H, 0R, 0ER, 1BB, 2SO, 0HR - ND
John Bale: 3.0IP, 2H, 0R 0ER, 0BB, 5SO, 0HR - W
Jimmy Gobble: 0.2IP, 0H, 1R, 1ER, 1BB, 0SO, 0HR - H
Joel Peralta: 0.1IP, 1H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 1SO, 0HR - H
David Riske: 1.0IP, 1H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 1SO, 0HR - H
Joakim Soria: 1.0IP, 1H, 0R, 0ER, 1BB, 0SO, 0HR - SV

Saturday, August 25: Chien-Ming Wang (14-6)(NYY) vs. Jeremy Bonderman (10-6)(DET)

Wang hasn't pitched well over his last three starts even though he's gone 1-1 over that span. And it was the Tigers that failed to capitalize on Wang's last start. We'll see if Bonderman can keep the cat bats in the game this time around.

Yankees 7, Tigers 2

(Win Probability graphing by Fangraphs)
Yankees player of the game: (SP) Chien-Ming Wang - WPA +.163
8.0IP, 5H, 2R, 1ER, 2BB, 6SO, 0HR
Yankees lowest contributor: (C) Jorge Posada - WPA -.117
0/5, 0R, 0HR, 0RBI, 0BB, 0SO

Tigers player of the game: (3B) Brandon Inge - WPA +.163
2/3, 1R, 0HR, 0RBI, 0BB, 0SO
Tigers lowest contributor: (SP) Jeremy Bonderman - WPA -.352
5.2IP, 8H, 7R, 7ER, 4BB, 0SO, 1HR

Chien-Ming Wang: 8.0IP, 5H, 2R, 1ER, 2BB, 6SO, 0HR - W

Jeremy Bonderman: 5.2IP, 8H, 7R, 7ER, 4BB, 0SO, 1HR - L

3-picks will be on hiatus for the next couple of weeks...

3 Picks: Red Sox at the Trop

Monday, August 20: Tim Wakefield (14-10)(BOS) vs. Scott Kazmir (9-7)(TB)

I find this match up of veteran knuckle-baller against the young flame-thrower compelling. Though I suspect the real story will be the Boston bats and how well they'll contrast compared to all the Devil Rays not named Carl Crawford.

Red Sox 6, Devil Rays 0

(Win Probability graphing by Fangraphs)
Red Sox player of the game: (3B) Mike Lowell - WPA +.207
2/2, 1R, 1HR, 3RBI, 2BB, 0SO
Red Sox lowest contributor: (LF) Bobby Kielty - WPA -.075
0/5, 1R, 0HR, 0RBI, 0BB, 1SO

Devil Rays player of the game: (3B) Akinori Iwamura - WPA +.016
0/3, 0R, 0HR, 0RBI, 1BB, 1SO
Devil Rays lowest contributor: (SP) Scott Kazmir - WPA -.305
5.2IP, 7H, 6R, 6ER, 4BB, 8SO, 1HR

Tim Wakefield: 7.0IP, 4H, 0R, 0ER, 1BB, 5SO, 0HR - W

Scott Kazmir: 5.2IP, 7H, 6R, 6ER, 4BB, 8SO, 1HR - L

The Rays were bedeviled by the knuckleball as Wakefield danced his way to victory. Or at least his knuckler did. Kazmir had the strikeouts. But the 6 earned runs were his undoing.

Tuesday, August 21: Chris Young (9-4)(SD) vs. John Maine (13-7)(NYM)

This one is an easy call. Two of the best NL starting pitchers working it at Shea.

Padres 6, Mets 7

(Win Probability graphing by Fangraphs)
Padres player of the game: (CF) Mike Cameron - WPA +.372
2/3, 2R, 1HR, 2RBI, 2BB, 0SO
Padres lowest contributor: (RP) Trevor Hoffman - WPA -.791
0.1IP, 4H, 2R, 2ER, 0BB, 0SO, 0HR

Mets player of the game: (CF) Carlos Beltran - WPA +.547
3/3, 1R, 1HR, 5RBI, 1BB, 0SO
Mets lowest contributor: (RP) Jorge Sosa - WPA -.353
0.1IP, 2H, 1R, 1ER, 0BB, 1SO, 0HR

Chris Young: 5.0IP, 5H, 4R, 4ER, 2BB, 5SO, 1HR - ND
Heath Bell: 1.0IP, 2H, 1R, 1ER, 1BB, 1SO, 0HR - BS
Trevor Hoffman: 0.1IP, 4H, 2R, 2ER, 0BB, 0SO, 0HR - BS, L

John Maine: 5.2IP, 6H, 3R, 3ER, 4BB, 4SO, 1HR - ND
Scott Schoeneweis: 1.0IP, 1H, 1R, 1ER, 0BB, 1SO, 0HR - H
Jorge Sosa: 0.1IP, 2H, 1R, 1ER, 0BB, 1SO, 0HR - BS
Billy Wagner: 1.0IP, 1H, 1R, 1ER, 1BB, 2SO, 0HR - W

You look at the bullpen performance in this game and there's reason for concern for both of these contenders. Three blown saves and the win is credited to a closer despite a shaky outing. This does not bode well for the final push down the stretch for either of these teams.

Wednesday, August 22: Daisuke Matsuzaka (13-9)(BOS) vs. Edwin Jackson (3-12)(TB)

I'm in this one more for the Dice-K saga than the Edwin Jackson record of pain. But I'm sure that 3-12 record looks worse than it is given the team he's pitching for.

Red Sox 1, Devil Rays 2

(Win Probability graphing by Fangraphs)
Red Sox player of the game: (DH) David Ortiz - WPA +.215
2/2, 0R, 0HR, 0RBI, 3BB, 0SO
Red Sox lowest contributor: (C) Jason Varitek - WPA -.338
0.5, 0R, 0HR, 0RBI, 0BB, 2SO

Devil Rays player of the game: (SP) Edwin Jackson - WPA +.217
6.0IP, 5H, 1R, 1ER, 5BB, 3SO, 0HR
Devil Rays lowest contributor: (1B) Joel Guzman - WPA -.091
0/3, 0R, 0HR, 0RBI, 1BB, 2SO

Daisuke Matsuzaka: 6.0IP, 2H, 2R, 2ER, 4BB, 8SO, 1HR - L

Edwin Jackson: 6.0IP, 5H, 1R, 1ER, 5BB, 3SO, 0HR - W
Dan Wheeler: 1.0IP, 2H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 2SO, 0HR - H
Gary Glover: 1.0IP, 1H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 1SO, 0HR - H
Al Reyes: 1.0IP, 1H, 0R, 0ER, 1BB, 0SO, 0HR - SV

The Devil Rays only gave him 2 runs of support to work with, but that was enough for Edwin Jackson to overcome the Dice-K machine.

3 Picks: The Action's in Boston

Friday, August 17: John Lackey (15-6)(LAA) vs. Josh Beckett (15-5)(BOS) - game 2 of the day/night double-header

Two teams trying to hang on to their increasingly tentative leads in their respective division races send their 15-game winning pitchers to the mound in this night-cap of the double-header. I'm looking for the Mariners to close their gap on the Angels so I'm pulling for a little home field advantage in this one.
--
The Angels went and switched the order of their starting pitchers for this double header. I imagine they couldn't recall Ervin Santana from triple-A in time to get him for the first game.
Game 1

Angels 4, Red Sox 8

(Win Probability graphing by Fangraphs)
Angels player of the game: (1B) Casey Kotchman - WPA +.132
4/4, 1R, 0HR, 0RBI, 0BB, 0SO
Angels lowest contributor: (SP) John Lackey - WPA -.428
4.0IP, 11H, 7R, 6ER, 0BB, 3SO, 1HR

Red Sox player of the game: (DH) David Ortiz - WPA +.151
2/5, 1R, 1HR, 2RBI, 0BB, 0SO
Red Sox lowest contributor: (1B) Kevin Youkilis - WPA -.050
1/4, 1R, 0HR, 0RBI, 1BB, 1SO

John Lackey: 4.0IP, 11H, 7R, 6ER, 0BB, 3SO, 1HR - L

Clay Buchholz: 6.0IP, 8H, 4R, 3ER, 3BB, 5SO, 0HR - W
Hideki Okajima: 1.2IP, 2H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 3SO, 0HR - H
Jonathan Papelbon: 1.1IP, 1H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 2SO, 0HR - SV

Game 2

Angels 7, Red Sox 5

(Win Probability graphing by Fangraphs)
Angels player of the game: (DH) Vladimir Guerrero - WPA +.585
3/5, 2R, 0HR, 3RBI, 0BB, 0SO
Angels lowest contributor: (RP) Francisco Rodriguez - WPA -.488
1.2IP, 2H, 1R, 1ER, 0BB, 1SO, 0HR

Red Sox player of the game: (DH) David Ortiz - WPA +.450
2/4, 2R, 0HR, 2RBI, 0BB, 2SO

Red Sox lowest contributor: (RP) Eric Gagne - WPA -.735

1.0IP, 3H 3R, 3ER, 1BB, 0SO, 0HR

Ervin Santana: 6.1IP, 4H, 1R, 1ER, 0BB, 5SO, 0HR - ND
Justin Speier: 0.2IP, 0H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 1SO, 0HR - H
Scot Shields: 0.1IP, 1H, 3R, 3ER, 2BB, 1SO, 0HR - H
Francisco Rodriguez: 1.2IP, 2H, 1R, 1ER, 0BB, 1SO, 0HR - BS, W

Josh Beckett: 7.0IP, 5H, 2R, 1ER, 1BB, 8SO, 0HR - ND
Eric Gagne: 1.0IP, 3H 3R, 3ER, 1BB, 0SO, 0HR - BS, L

So there's the split on the double-header. David Ortiz was swinging a hot bat today and there was an impressive bullpen collapse on both sides in the second game with a pair of blown saves.

Saturday, August 18: Jered Weaver (8-5)(LAA) vs. Curt Schilling (6-5)(BOS)

Once again, the interesting match up of the day can be found in Boston as the series goes on.

Angels 5, Red Sox 10

(Win Probability graphing by Fangraphs)
Angels player of the game: (LF) Reggie Willits - WPA +.138
2/4, 1R, 0HR, 1RBI, 0BB, 1SO
Angels lowest contributor: (SP) Jered Weaver - WPA -.455
4.1IP, 8H, 6R, 6ER, 1BB, 5SO, 1HR

Red Sox player of the game: (DH) David Ortiz - WPA +.251
1/3, 2R, 1HR, 4RBI, 2BB, 1SO
Red Sox lowest contributor: (SP) Curt Schilling - WPA -.166
6.0IP, 8H, 5R, 5ER, 0BB, 3SO, 2HR

Jered Weaver: 4.1IP, 8H, 6R, 6ER, 1BB, 5SO, 1HR - L

Curt Schilling: 6.0IP, 8H, 5R, 5ER, 0BB, 3SO, 2HR - W
Mike Timlin: 1.0IP, 1H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 0SO, 0HR - H
Hideki Okajima: 1.0IP, 0H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 0SO, 0HR - H

Curt Schilling's bad start happens to beat Jered Weaver's bad start as Weaver continues the sophomore slump I was afraid he'd have this season.

Sunday, August 19: CC Sabathia (14-6)(CLE) vs. James Shields (9-8)(TB)

The only mis-match in this game is the offense. If Shields had the Indians hitting (and playing defense) behind him he'd probably have a Sabathia-like win record.

Indians 3, Devil Rays 4 (12)

(Win Probability graphing by Fangraphs)
Indians player of the game: (SP) CC Sabathia - WPA +.263
8.0IP, 5H, 2R, 2ER, 0BB, 6SO, 2HR
Indians lowest contributor: (RP) Joe Borowski - WPA -.291
1.0IP, 2H, 1R, 1ER, 1BB, 2SO, 0HR

Devil Rays player of the game: (LF) Carl Crawford - WPA +.350
1/5, 1R, 0HR, 1RBI, 0BB, 1SO
Devil Rays lowest contributor of the game: (2B) Brendan Harris - WPA -.159
2/5, 0R, 0HR, 0RBI, 0BB, 1SO

CC Sabathia: 8.0IP, 5H, 2R, 2ER, 0BB, 6SO, 2HR - ND
Joe Borowski: 1.0IP, 2H, 1R, 1ER, 1BB, 2SO, 0HR - BS
Rafael Perez: 1.0IP, 2H, 1R, 1ER, 0BB, 1SO, 0HR - L

James Shields: 6.0IP, 6H, 2R, 2ER, 1BB, 6SO, 0HR - ND
Scott Dohmann: 2.0IP, 1H, 0R, 0ER, 1BB, 1SO, 0HR - W

Some nice oscillation in the extra innings of the win probability graph. Sabathia is denied the victory despite an excellent outing. And the D-Rays take this one despite some shaky relief pitching.

3 Picks: Contending Teams at Home Playing Against Non-contenders

Tuesday, August 14: Aaron Harang (11-3)(CIN) vs. Carlos Zambrano (14-8)(CHC)

It's staff ace versus staff ace as Chicago looks to pick up some ground on the Brewers in this one.

Reds 6, Cubs 5

(Win Probability graphing by Fangraphs)
Reds player of the game: (RP) David Weathers - WPA +.280
1.1IP, 0H, 0R, 0ER, 2BB, 0SO, 0HR
Reds lowest contributor: (LF) Adam Dunn - WPA -.085
0/4, 0R, 0HR, 0RBI, 1BB, 0SO

Cubs player of the game: (1B) Derrek Lee - WPA +.144
2/4, 1R, 1HR, 2RBI, 0BB, 1SO
Cubs lowest contributor: (SP) Carlos Zambrano
7.0IP, 13H, 6R, 6ER, 2BB, 0SO, 0HR

Aaron Harang: 7.0IP, 4H, 5R, 5ER, 1BB, 7SO, 3HR - W
Jared Burton: 0.2IP, 1H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 1SO, 0HR - H
David Weathers: 1.1IP, 0H, 0R, 0ER, 2BB, 0SO, 0HR - SV

Carlos Zambrano: 7.0IP, 13H, 6R, 6ER, 2BB, 0SO, 0HR - L

Only when Zambrano is off his game can you go into the friendly confines and give up 3 home runs and still come away with the win. Carlos put up some ugly numbers for the loss, but at least he kept the ball in the yard. And that's saying something in that ballpark. But tip your cap to the 7 K's from Harang. The Cubs will need to dig deep to stay in the division race.

Wednesday, August 15: Andy Sonnanstine (1-8)(TB) vs. Daisuke Matsuzaka (13-8)(BOS)

I smell a substantial mis-match as Boston looks to keep their dwindling l ead over the Yankees alive.

Devil Rays 6, Red Sox 5

(Win Probability graphing by Fangraphs)
Devil Rays player of the game: (SP) Andy Sonnanstine - WPA +.183
6.2IP, 4H, 3R, 3ER, 2BB, 3SO, 1HR
Devil Rays lowest contributor: (C) Dioner Navarro - WPA -.051
0/3, 0R, 0HR, 1RBI, 0BB, 2SO

Red Sox player of the game: (SS) Julio Lugo - WPA +.297
2/4, 0R, 0HR, 1RBI, 0BB, 0SO
Red Sox lowest contributor: (SP) Daisuke Matsuzaka - WPA -.268
6.0IP, 8H, 6R, 6ER, 3BB, 5SO, 0HR

Andy Sonnanstine: 6.2IP, 4H, 3R, 3ER, 2BB, 3SO, 1HR - W
Dan Wheeler: 1.0IP, 1H, 1R, 1ER, 2BB, 0SO, 0HR - H
Al Reyes: 1.0IP, 2H, 1R, 1ER, 1BB, 3SO, 0HR - SV

Daisuke Matsuzaka: 6.0IP, 8H, 6R, 6ER, 3BB, 5SO, 0HR - L

What a stunning upset. The unlikely Andy Sonnanstine staves off a sweep with a gutsy, winning quality start while Dice-K labored through this one.

Thursday, August 16: Tim Lincecum (6-3)(SF) vs. Chuck James (9-8)(ATL)

James is a good left handed starting pitcher, far better than what his 9-8 record would suggest. And he'll have his hands full as he's charged with keeping the NL East division race hopes alive with a quality outing against the surprising Lincecum.

Giants 9, Braves 3

(Win Probability graphing by Fangraphs)
Giants player of the game: (C) Bengie Molina - WPA +.194
2/3, 1R, 1HR, 4RBI, 0BB, 0SO
Giants lowest contributor: (2B) Ray Durham - WPA -.022
0/3, 0R, 0HR, 0RBI, 1BB, 1SO

Braves player of the game: (CF) Andruw Jones - WPA +.075
2/4, 0R, 0HR, 0RBI, 0BB, 0SO
Braves lowest contributor: (SP) Chuck James - WPA -.380
3.2IP, 5H, 6R, 6ER, 1BB, 2SO, 4HR

Tim Lincecum: 5.0IP, 5H, 3R, 3ER, 1BB, 4SO, 0HR - W

Chuck James: 3.2IP, 5H, 6R, 6ER, 1BB, 2SO, 4HR - L

Four home runs allowed in just 3 and two-thirds innings... ouch! That doesn't give his team much of a chance. If the Braves fall short of the playoffs again this year it will be on games like this one where they seemed to have the advantage on paper going into it. On the other hand, as a long-time Braves detractor, there's some satisfaction in seeing a team as completely out of any race like the Giants knocking this Atlanta team down.

3 Picks: A Couple of Games with AL Wild Card Implications.... and one without

Saturday, August 11: Dan Haren (13-3)(OAK) vs. Justin Verlander (11-4)(DET)

The Tigers turn to Verlander to keep them in the AL Wild Card race. With the Yankees taking the lead in that race they'll need to make a good push down the stretch.

Athletics 2, Tigers 5

(Win Probability graphing by Fangraphs)
Athletics player of the game: (LF) Shannon Stewart - WPA +.133
2/4, 0R, 0HR, 1RBI, 1BB, 0SO
Athletics lowest contributor: (2B) Mark Ellis - WPA -.231
0/4, 0R, 0HR, 0RBI, 0BB, 2SO

Tigers player of the game: (RF) Magglio Ordonez - WPA +.262
3/4, 1R, 1HR, 2RBI, 0BB, 0SO
Tigers lowest contributor: (SP) Justin Verlander - WPA -.086
6.0IP, 7H, 2R, 2ER, 3BB, 7SO, 0HR

Dan Haren: 6.1IP, 9H, 3R, 3ER, 1BB, 4SO, 2HR - L

Justin Verlander: 6.0IP, 7H, 2R, 2ER, 3BB, 7SO, 0HR - W
Bobby Seay: 0.1IP, 0H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 1SO, 0HR - H
Aquilino Lopez: 0.2IP, 0H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 1SO, 0HR - H
Fernando Rodney: 1.0IP, 0H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 2SO, 0HR - H
Todd Jones: 1.0IP, 0H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 0SO, 0HR - SV

It's impressive that the Tigers player with the lowest WPA is the pitcher that comes away with the win. It speaks to some suspicions about how WPA is attributed to pitching as well as the kind of game the team as a whole was having at the plate. With the Tigers, Yankees and Mariners all winning their contests today the Wild Card race continues to be a mad dash to the finish. Though at least the Tigers and Mariners can expect to be factors in their respective division races. The Yankees... not so much.

Sunday, August 12: AJ Burnett (5-6)(TOR) vs. Brian Bannister (8-6)(KC)

By a strange twist of fortune AJ Burnett is the pitcher I drafted for my fantasy team back in March and now Brian Bannister is the one pitching for my Oriole Blue Wave. Burnett really hasn't been the pitcher the Blue Jays expected. And I wonder if it's more than the injuries behind his under performance.

Blue Jays 4, Royals 1

(Win Probability graphing by Fangraphs)
Blue Jays player of the game: (SP) AJ Burnett - WPA +.299
7.1IP, 3H, 1R, 1ER, 3BB, 5SO, 1HR
Blue Jays lowest contributor: (CF) Vernon Wells - WPA -.089
0/4, 0R, 0HR, 1RBI, 0BB, 1SO

Royals player of the game: (3B) Alex Gordon - WPA +.030
1/2, 1R, 1HR, 1RBI, 1BB, 0SO
Royals lowest contributor: (SP) Brian Bannister - WPA -.103
4.2IP, 7H, 3R, 3ER, 1SO, 0HR

AJ Burnett: 7.1IP, 3H, 1R, 1ER, 3BB, 5SO, 1HR - W
Brian Wolfe: 0.1IP, 0H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 0SO, 0HR - H
Scott Downs: 0.1IP, 0H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 0SO, 0HR - H
Jeremy Accardo: 1.0IP, 1H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 1SO, 0HR - SV

Brian Bannister: 4.2IP, 7H, 3R, 3ER, 1SO, 0HR - L

If I didn't have a good lead at the top of my fantasy league I might get upset about a rough start like this from Brian Bannister. But my inner Blue Jay fan is pleased to see AJ producing after such a long stint on the DL. It's too late to get Toronto back into the race, but there needs to be concerted effort to keep Burnett healthy for their run next year. Accardo is filling in the void left by BJ Ryan nicely. It could be a long time before Toronto is firing on all J's - blue or otherwise.

Monday, August 13: Johan Santana (12-9)(MIN) vs. Felix Hernandez (8-6)(SEA)

El Presidente takes on the King. I'll admit it, the M's being in the Wild Card race (and with the division title not out of reach) has me a little excited. Taking on last year's AL Cy Young award winning pitcher will be a good test for the King.

Twins 3, Mariners 4

(Win Probability graphing by Fangraphs)
Twins player of the game: (C) Joe Mauer - WPA +.267
3/4, 0R, 0HR, 2RBI, 0BB, 0SO
Twins lowest contributor: (RP) Matt Guerrier - WPA -.240
1.0IP, 1H, 1R, 1ER, 0BB, 0SO, 1HR

Mariners player of the game: (1B) Richie Sexson - WPA +.480
2/4, 1R, 1HR, 3RBI, 0BB, 2SO
Mariners lowest contributor: (RF) Jose Guillen - WPA -.149
0/4, 1R, 0HR, 0RBI, 0BB, 1SO

Johan Santana: 7.0IP, 7H, 3R, 3ER, 0BB, 4SO, 0HR - ND
Matt Guerrier: 1.0IP, 1H, 1R, 1ER, 0BB, 0SO, 1HR - L

Felix Hernandez: 6.0IP, 4H, 1R, 1ER, 2BB, 6SO, 0HR - ND
John Parrish: 0.1IP, 1H, 2R, 2ER, 1BB, 0SO, 0HR - H
Sean Green: 1.2IP, 2H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 1SO, 0HR - BS
JJ Putz: 1.0IP, 1H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 1SO, 0HR - W

Now if that doesn't make this old Mariners fan tingle... King Felix out-pitched the best pitcher in baseball and the M's came away with a victory - albeit an ugly one. No decisions for either starter, a blown save and the win is credited to the closer. But it keeps Seattle in the hunt for a post season berth.

Mariners 8, Orioles 4

Temperature at game time: 101-degrees

Believe it or not, that was cooler than the highs earlier on the day. And it was hardly a dry heat.

(Win Probability graphing by Fangraphs)
Mariners player of the game: (DH) Jose Vidro - WPA +.195
3/3, 2R, 1HR, 4RBI, 0BB, 0SO

Mariners lowest contributor: (C) Kenji Johjima - WPA -.081
0/4, 0R, 0HR, 0RBI, 0BB, 0SO

Orioles player of the game: (SS) Miguel Tejada - WPA +.135
3/4, 0R, 0HR, 1RBI, 0BB, 1SO

Orioles lowest contributor: (SP) Jeremy Guthrie - WPA -.436

4.0IP, 8H, 6R, 5ER, 0BB, 3SO, 2HR

Felix Hernandez: 6.2IP, 10H, 4R, 4ER, 0BB, 2SO, 0HR - W
George Sherrill: 0.2IP, 0H, 0R, 0ER, 1BB, 1SO, 0HR
Brandon Morrow: .01IP, 1H, 0R, 0ER, 1BB, 1SO, 0HR
JJ Putz: 1.1IP, 0H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 2SO, 0HR - SV

Jeremy Guthrie: 4.0IP, 8H, 6R, 5ER, 0BB, 3SO, 2HR - L
Rob Bell: 3.0IP, 4H, 2R, 2ER, 0BB, 0SO, 1HR
Paul Shuey: 1.0IP, 0H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 0SO, 0HR
John Parrish: 1.0IP, 3H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 0SO, 0HR

The heat didn't bother King Felix (and his 98 mile-an-hour fastball). He wasn't the strike out machine I had expected to see. But he was effective at mixing his speed and location and spreading those 10-hits around to limit the damage. The Mariner bullpen was a revelation. JJ Putz is a solid closer (surprisingly the best in the majors this year, in my opinion) and the bridge from starter to closer proved capable with Sherrill as the lefty in the pen followed by Morrow.

Guthrie did seem to be affected by the heat. While all his pitches were at or around 94 miles an hour about a week and a half ago against the Yankees, in this one he rarely had that kind of velocity. Though he was featuring a lot more sliders and curves.

Raul Ibanez saw exactly one pitch from Rob Bell and promptly deposited it in the bullpen out beyond center field. It's good to see him coming around at long last. If he keeps hitting like he has over the last couple of games and Jose Vidro continues to hit like a designated hitter (something he did in this game, not something he's done a lot of this year) the M's could prove to be a surprise in the division or wild card race. They really only need a steady, consistent push from here on out to get noticed.

3 Picks: Rockin' the Kazmir

Wednesday, August 8: Carlos Zambrano (14-7)(CHC) vs. Roy Oswalt (11-6)(HOU)

With no Chris Carpenter this year these two are the undisputed aces of the NL Central. The Cubs are making a good run at the division title and could use a good series in Houston.

Cubs 2, Astros 8

(Win Probability graphing by Fangraphs)
Cubs player of the game: (3B) Mark DeRosa - WPA +.064
2/5, 0R, 0HR, 0RBI, 0BB, 0SO
Cubs lowest contributor: (SP) Carlos Zambrano - WPA -.196
5.2IP, 8H, 7R, 7ER, 3BB, 6SO, 2HR

Astros player of the game: (SP) Roy Oswalt - WPA +.288
6.0IP, 6H, 0R, 0ER, 4BB, 4SO, 0HR
Astros lowest contributor: (CF) Jason Lane - WPA -.063
0/5, 0R, 0HR, 0RBI, 0BB, 2SO

Carlos Zambrano: 5.2IP, 8H, 7R, 7ER, 3BB, 6SO, 2HR - L

Roy Oswalt: 6.0IP, 6H, 0R, 0ER, 4BB, 4SO, 0HR - W

Roy Oswalt pitched well enough for even the Astros' offense to pick him up. And Zambrano certainly did what he could to bring that offense to life. Bad game for the Cubs' ace at a time when they needed a good outing to take the division lead.

Thursday, August 9: Scott Kazmir (8-7)(TB) vs. Jeremy Bonderman (10-4)(DET)

The Tigers will be looking to rock the Kazmir in Motown. Bonderman has come a long way since his 6-19 rookie year back when the Tigers where far from contending in 2003.

Devil Rays 8, Tigers 1

(Win Probability graphing by Fangraphs)
Devil Rays player of the game: (SP) Scott Kazmir - WPA +.330
6.0IP, 3H, 0R, 0ER, 1BB, 7SO, 0HR
Devil Rays lowest contributor: (1B) Carlos Pena - WPA -.091
0/5, 0R, 0HR, 0RBI, 0BB, 4SO

Tigers player of the game: (DH) Gary Sheffield - WPA +.049
1/4, 0R, 0HR, 0RBI, 0BB, 0SO
Tigers lowest contributor: (SP) Jeremy Bonderman - WPA -.153
6.0IP, 10H, 7R, 7ER, 3BB, 4SO, 1HR

Scott Kazmir: 6.0IP, 3H, 0R, 0ER, 1BB, 7SO, 0HR - W

Jeremy Bonderman: 6.0IP, 10H, 7R, 7ER, 3BB, 4SO, 1HR - L

The Kazmir rocks! Six innings of work from each starter with a world of difference between them for results. Fanning 7 hitters works a lot better than allowing 7 earned runs. That kind of baseball math is easy.

Friday, August 10: Daisuke Matsuzaka (13-8)(BOS) vs. Brian Burres (5-5)(BAL)

Dice-K comes to my town.

Red Sox 5, Orioles 6(Win Probability Graphing by Fangraphs)
Red Sox player of the game: (SP) Diasuke Matsuzaka - WPA +.232
7.0IP, 4H, 1R, 1ER, 4BB, 7SO, 0HR
Red Sox lowest contributor: (RP) Hideki Okajima - WPA -.489
1.1IP, 2H, 1R, 1ER, 0BB, 1SO, 0HR

Orioles player of the game: (SP) Erik Bedard - WPA +.234
7.2IP, 4H, 3R, 3ER, 2BB, 7SO, 0HR
Orioles lowest contributor: (RP) Chad Bradford - WPA -.260
0.0IP, 2H, 2R, 2ER, 0BB, 0SO, 0HR

Daisuke Matsuzaka: 7.0IP, 4H, 1R, 1ER, 4BB, 7SO, 0HR - ND
Hideki Okajima: 1.1IP, 2H, 1R, 1ER, 0BB, 1SO, 0HR - BS, L

Erik Bedard: 7.2IP, 4H, 3R, 3ER, 2BB, 7SO, 0HR - ND
Jim Hoey: 1.1IP, 1H, 0R, 0ER, 1BB, 1SO, 0HR - W

Congratulations to Jim Hoey for his first career, major league win. This was an unusual game in that all the big positive and negative Win Probability points fell on the pitching with examples of great and poor pitching from both sides. This is especially surprising considering the kind of offense Boston typically features.

3 Picks: Snakes Look to Swallow Penny

Sunday, August 5: Brandon Webb (10-8)(ARI) vs. Brad Penny (13-2)(LAD)

An ace versus ace match up that has the potential to be a great pitchers duel. The snakes find themselves precariously perched in first place and this is exactly the team they need to beat to build up a little breathing room at the top. Taking their game directly to Los Angeles with Brandon Webb on the mound is just about the only time they really control their own destiny.

Diamondbacks 3, Dodgers 0

(Win Probability graphing by Fangraphs)
Diamondbacks player of the game: (SP) Brandon Webb - WPA +.484
9.0IP, 7H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 4SO, 0HR
Diamondbacks lowest contributor: (SP) Brandon Webb (as hitter) - WPA -.080
0/4, 0R, 0HR, 0RBI, 0BB, 0SO

Dodgers player of the game: (RF) Andre Ethier - WPA +.069
2/3, 0R, 0HR, 0RBI, 0BB, 0SO
Dodgers lowest contributor: (SS) Rafael Furcal - WPA -.147
0/4, 0R, 0HR, 0RBI, 0BB, 0SO

Brandon Webb: 9.0IP, 7H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 4SO, 0HR - W

Brad Penny: 7.0IP, 6H, 3R, 3ER, 0BB, 5SO, 0HR - L

And the Snakes do manage to swallow the Penny as Webb was unbelievable. With a complete game effort, no walks and 4 strike outs on a 7-hit shutout. It's August and it might be time to take the D-Back threat of a post season run seriously.

Monday, August 6: Curt Schilling (6-4)(BOS) vs. Jered Weaver (7-5)(LAA)

The Angels and Red Sox have played some intensely watchable baseball over the years and this match up of veteran versus young phenom (with similar records this year) is as compelling as they come.

Red Sox 2, Angels 4

(Win Probability graphing by Fangraphs)
Red Sox player of the game: (RF) JD Drew - WPA - +.153
3/4, 0R, 0HR, 0RBI, 0BB, 0SO
Red Sox lowest contributor: (CF) Coco Crisp - WPA -.193
0/4, 0R, 0HR, 0RBI, 0BB, 2SO

Angels player of the game: (2B) Maicer Izturis - WPA +.160
1/4, 1R, 1HR, 1RBI, 0BB, 1SO
Angels lowest contributor: (LF) Reggie Willits - WPA -.055
0/2, 0R, 0HR, 0RBI, 0BB, 1SO

Curt Schilling: 6.0IP, 9H, 4R, 4ER, 0BB, 5SO, 1HR - L

Jered Weaver: 6.0IP, 6H, 2R, 2ER, 2BB, 4SO, 1HR - ND
Justin Speier: 1.0IP, 1H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 0SO, 0HR - W
Scot Shields: 1.0IP, 1H, 0R, 0ER, 1BB, 2SO, 0HR - H
Francisco Rodriguez: 1.0IP, 0H, 0R, 0ER, 1BB, 1SO, 0HR - SV

After more than 130 career saves at the age of 25 and a career ERA around 2.33 I'm starting to think that K-Rod is a decent closer. This was a good win for the Angels as it was a key long ball from Izturis that gave them enough offense to beat Schilling. If they were relying on Vlad to get things done every night then the Mariners might start to loom much larger in the rear view mirror.

Tuesday, August 7: Jake Peavy (11-5)(SD) vs. Anthony Reyes (1-10)(STL)

This is less of a pick-for-excellent match up as an eye-popping mismatch as Anthony Reyes takes his 6+ ERA and 1-10 record up against the leading candidate for the NL Cy Young Award. The defending world champion Cardinals are way, way out of contention and on paper Reyes looks like a sacrificial offering to the strike-out machine that is Jake Peavy.

Padres 4, Cardinals 0

(Win Probability graphing by Fangraphs)
Padres player of the game: (SP) Jake Peavy - WPA +.363
6.0IP, 3H, 0R, 0ER, 2BB, 5SO, 0HR
Padres lowest contributor: (CF) Mike Cameron - WPA -.129
0/4, 0R, 0HR, 0RBI, 1BB, 1SO

Cardinals player of the game: (SP) Anthony Reyes - WPA +.232
7.0IP, 6H, 1R, 1ER, 1BB, 2SO, 0HR
Cardinals lowest contributor: (3B) Scott Rolen - WPA -.250
0/4, 0R, 0HR, 0RBI, 0BB, 0SO

Jake Peavy: 6.0IP, 3H, 0R, 0ER, 2BB, 5SO, 0HR - W
Cla Meredith: 1.0IP, 1H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 0SO, 0HR - H
Heath Bell: 1.0IP, 1H, 0R, 0ER, 1BB, 1SO, 0HR - H

Anthony Reyes: 7.0IP, 6H, 1R, 1ER, 1BB, 2SO, 0HR - L

Reyes may go to 1-11 on the season with this loss. But you've got to tip your hat to him for pitching well enough to win most ball games. It was the anemic Cardinals offense that lost this one for him.

3 Picks: Into August with the Contenders (and the White Sox)

Thursday, August 2: Jon Garland (8-7)(CHW) vs. Roger Clemens (3-5)(NYY)

If the Yankees continue to light up the White Sox they way they have been in this home series then even the Rocket should pick up a win in this one. But I don't think Garland will be quite the pushover the Yankee offense has seen over the last couple of games.

White Sox 13, Yankees 9

(Win Probability graphing by Fangraphs)
White Sox player of the game: (RF) Jermaine Dye - WPA +.381
4/5, 3R, 2HR, 4RBI, 0BB, 1SO
White Sox lowest contributor: (SP) Jon Garland - WPA -.301
1.1IP, 9H, 8R, 8ER, 0BB, 1SO, 1HR

Yankees player of the game: (C) Jorge Posada - WPA +.176
2/4, 1R, 0HR, 2RBI, 0BB, 1SO
Yankees lowest contributor: (SP) Roger Clemens - WPA -.419
1.2IP, 9H, 8R, 3ER, 0BB, 0SO, 0HR

Jon Garland: 1.1IP, 9H, 8R, 8ER, 0BB, 1SO, 1HR - ND
Boone Logan: 2.0IP, 2H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 2SO, 0HR - W
Matt Thornton: 0.2IP, 0H, 0R, 0ER, 1BB, 2SO, 0HR - H
Mike MacDougal: 2.0IP, 1H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 3SO, 0HR - H

Roger Clemens: 1.2IP, 9H, 8R, 3ER, 0BB, 0SO, 0HR - ND
Jeff Karstens: 3.1IP, 5H, 3R, 3ER, 0BB, 1SO, 1HR - L

One doesn't expect a Jon Garland/Roger Clemens match up to turn into a total slug-fest as neither starter could pitch their way out of the second inning. And when it comes down to a battle of the White Sox bullpen versus the Yankees bullpen after tying everything up at 8 runs apiece after two innings my money is on the White Sox relievers. There was a total of 12 pitchers used in this game. That is ugly. Though one thing jumps out at me from Roger Clemens line: 8-runs, 3-earned runs. Only 3 of 8 were earned? What does that say about the Bombers' defense? Ugly, ugly game.

Friday, August 3: Jeff Francis (11-5)(COL) vs. John Smoltz (10-5)(ATL)

Jeff Francis can and will test the patience of the Braves' bats in this one. It should be interesting to see how the Francis-Teixeira at-bats shake out in this one. I can't wait to see how well Teixeira tees off of National League pitching as a newly acquired rental for Atlanta.

Rockies 9, Braves 2

(Win Probability graphing by Fangraphs)
Rockies player of the game: (SP) Jeff Francis - WPA +.226
6.0IP, 6H, 1R, 1ER, 0BB, 8SO, 0HR
Rockies lowest contributor: (SP) Jeff Francis (as hitter) - WPA -.057
0/3, 0R, 0HR, 0RBI, 0BB, 1SO

Braves player of the game: (2B) Kelly Johnson - WPA +.087
2/3, 0R, 0HR, 0RBI, 1BB, 0SO
Braves lowest contributor: (SP) John Smoltz - WPA -.253
6.2IP, 9H, 7R, 5ER, 4BB, 5SO, 1HR

Jeff Francis: 6.0IP, 6H, 1R, 1ER, 0BB, 8SO, 0HR - W

John Smoltz: 6.2IP, 9H, 7R, 5ER, 4BB, 5SO, 1HR - L

An impressive outing for Jeff Francis. I continue to be impressed by his approach with the off-speed stuff. And John Smoltz actually had things in hand until the seventh inning. Smoltz didn't have his best stuff today, but he battled and was simply left out on the mound a bit too long.

Saturday, August 4: Daisuke Matsuzaka (12-8)(BOS) vs. Jarrod Washburn (8-7)(SEA)

Dice-K gets another chance against the Seattle Mariners. And this time he doesn't match up against the King as Washburn looks to work on his home record.

Red Sox 4, Mariners 3

(Win Probability graphing by Fangraphs)
Red Sox player of the game: (SP) Daisuke Matsuzaka - WPA +.243
7.0IP, 6H, 2R, 2ER, 2BB, 10SO, 2HR
Red Sox lowest contributor: (2B) Dustin Pedroia - WPA -.114
0/4, 0R, 0HR, 0RBI, 1BB, 0SO

Mariners player of the game: (C) Kenji Johjima - WPA +.099
2/4, 0R, 0HR, 1RBI, 0BB, 0SO
Mariners lowest contributor: (CF) Ichiro Suzuki - WPA -.231
0/5, 0R, 0HR, 0RBI, 0BB, 1SO

Daisuke Matsuzaka: 7.0IP, 6H, 2R, 2ER, 2BB, 10SO, 2HR - W
Eric Gagne: 1.0IP, 3H, 1R, 1ER, 0BB, 1SO, 0HR - H
Jonathan Papelbon: 1.0IP, 0H, 0R, 0ER, 2BB, 2SO, 0HR - SV

Jarrod Washburn: 6.1IP, 8H, 4R, 4ER, 2BB, 4SO, 0HR - L

Whatever dim hope the Yankees may have entertained of catching up to the Red Sox in the division race evaporated completely when Boston acquired Eric Gagne at the trade deadline. And for the BoSox pitching crew this game unfolded exactly the way it was engineered: Dice-K rings up 10 strikeouts in 7 innings of work, Gagne pitches one inning for the hold and the Papelbon Speed Shop comes in to slam the door. The thing that makes the BoSox even more terrifying is the fact that they have so many other capable arms in the rotation and bullpen that weren't on display in this outing.