Monday, August 13, 2007

3 Picks: Contending Teams at Home Playing Against Non-contenders


Tuesday, August 14: Aaron Harang (11-3)(CIN) vs. Carlos Zambrano (14-8)(CHC)

It's staff ace versus staff ace as Chicago looks to pick up some ground on the Brewers in this one.
Reds 6, Cubs 5
(Win Probability graphing by Fangraphs)
Reds player of the game: (RP) David Weathers - WPA +.280
1.1IP, 0H, 0R, 0ER, 2BB, 0SO, 0HR
Reds lowest contributor: (LF) Adam Dunn - WPA -.085
0/4, 0R, 0HR, 0RBI, 1BB, 0SO

Cubs player of the game: (1B) Derrek Lee - WPA +.144
2/4, 1R, 1HR, 2RBI, 0BB, 1SO
Cubs lowest contributor: (SP) Carlos Zambrano
7.0IP, 13H, 6R, 6ER, 2BB, 0SO, 0HR
Aaron Harang: 7.0IP, 4H, 5R, 5ER, 1BB, 7SO, 3HR - W
Jared Burton: 0.2IP, 1H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 1SO, 0HR - H
David Weathers: 1.1IP, 0H, 0R, 0ER, 2BB, 0SO, 0HR - SV

Carlos Zambrano: 7.0IP, 13H, 6R, 6ER, 2BB, 0SO, 0HR - L

Only when Zambrano is off his game can you go into the friendly confines and give up 3 home runs and still come away with the win. Carlos put up some ugly numbers for the loss, but at least he kept the ball in the yard. And that's saying something in that ballpark. But tip your cap to the 7 K's from Harang. The Cubs will need to dig deep to stay in the division race.

Wednesday, August 15: Andy Sonnanstine (1-8)(TB) vs. Daisuke Matsuzaka (13-8)(BOS)

I smell a substantial mis-match as Boston looks to keep their dwindling l ead over the Yankees alive.
Devil Rays 6, Red Sox 5
(Win Probability graphing by Fangraphs)
Devil Rays player of the game: (SP) Andy Sonnanstine - WPA +.183
6.2IP, 4H, 3R, 3ER, 2BB, 3SO, 1HR
Devil Rays lowest contributor: (C) Dioner Navarro - WPA -.051
0/3, 0R, 0HR, 1RBI, 0BB, 2SO

Red Sox player of the game: (SS) Julio Lugo - WPA +.297
2/4, 0R, 0HR, 1RBI, 0BB, 0SO
Red Sox lowest contributor: (SP) Daisuke Matsuzaka - WPA -.268
6.0IP, 8H, 6R, 6ER, 3BB, 5SO, 0HR

Andy Sonnanstine: 6.2IP, 4H, 3R, 3ER, 2BB, 3SO, 1HR - W
Dan Wheeler: 1.0IP, 1H, 1R, 1ER, 2BB, 0SO, 0HR - H
Al Reyes: 1.0IP, 2H, 1R, 1ER, 1BB, 3SO, 0HR - SV

Daisuke Matsuzaka: 6.0IP, 8H, 6R, 6ER, 3BB, 5SO, 0HR - L

What a stunning upset. The unlikely Andy Sonnanstine staves off a sweep with a gutsy, winning quality start while Dice-K labored through this one.

Thursday, August 16: Tim Lincecum (6-3)(SF) vs. Chuck James (9-8)(ATL)

James is a good left handed starting pitcher, far better than what his 9-8 record would suggest. And he'll have his hands full as he's charged with keeping the NL East division race hopes alive with a quality outing against the surprising Lincecum.
Giants 9, Braves 3
(Win Probability graphing by Fangraphs)
Giants player of the game: (C) Bengie Molina - WPA +.194
2/3, 1R, 1HR, 4RBI, 0BB, 0SO
Giants lowest contributor: (2B) Ray Durham - WPA -.022
0/3, 0R, 0HR, 0RBI, 1BB, 1SO

Braves player of the game: (CF) Andruw Jones - WPA +.075
2/4, 0R, 0HR, 0RBI, 0BB, 0SO
Braves lowest contributor: (SP) Chuck James - WPA -.380
3.2IP, 5H, 6R, 6ER, 1BB, 2SO, 4HR

Tim Lincecum: 5.0IP, 5H, 3R, 3ER, 1BB, 4SO, 0HR - W

Chuck James: 3.2IP, 5H, 6R, 6ER, 1BB, 2SO, 4HR - L

Four home runs allowed in just 3 and two-thirds innings... ouch! That doesn't give his team much of a chance. If the Braves fall short of the playoffs again this year it will be on games like this one where they seemed to have the advantage on paper going into it. On the other hand, as a long-time Braves detractor, there's some satisfaction in seeing a team as completely out of any race like the Giants knocking this Atlanta team down.

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