Thursday, August 16, 2007

3 Picks: The Action's in Boston


Friday, August 17: John Lackey (15-6)(LAA) vs. Josh Beckett (15-5)(BOS) - game 2 of the day/night double-header

Two teams trying to hang on to their increasingly tentative leads in their respective division races send their 15-game winning pitchers to the mound in this night-cap of the double-header. I'm looking for the Mariners to close their gap on the Angels so I'm pulling for a little home field advantage in this one.
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The Angels went and switched the order of their starting pitchers for this double header. I imagine they couldn't recall Ervin Santana from triple-A in time to get him for the first game.
Game 1
Angels 4, Red Sox 8
(Win Probability graphing by Fangraphs)
Angels player of the game: (1B) Casey Kotchman - WPA +.132
4/4, 1R, 0HR, 0RBI, 0BB, 0SO
Angels lowest contributor: (SP) John Lackey - WPA -.428
4.0IP, 11H, 7R, 6ER, 0BB, 3SO, 1HR

Red Sox player of the game: (DH) David Ortiz - WPA +.151
2/5, 1R, 1HR, 2RBI, 0BB, 0SO
Red Sox lowest contributor: (1B) Kevin Youkilis - WPA -.050
1/4, 1R, 0HR, 0RBI, 1BB, 1SO
John Lackey: 4.0IP, 11H, 7R, 6ER, 0BB, 3SO, 1HR - L

Clay Buchholz: 6.0IP, 8H, 4R, 3ER, 3BB, 5SO, 0HR - W
Hideki Okajima: 1.2IP, 2H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 3SO, 0HR - H
Jonathan Papelbon: 1.1IP, 1H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 2SO, 0HR - SV


Game 2
Angels 7, Red Sox 5
(Win Probability graphing by Fangraphs)
Angels player of the game: (DH) Vladimir Guerrero - WPA +.585
3/5, 2R, 0HR, 3RBI, 0BB, 0SO
Angels lowest contributor: (RP) Francisco Rodriguez - WPA -.488
1.2IP, 2H, 1R, 1ER, 0BB, 1SO, 0HR

Red Sox player of the game: (DH) David Ortiz - WPA +.450
2/4, 2R, 0HR, 2RBI, 0BB, 2SO
Red Sox lowest contributor: (RP) Eric Gagne - WPA -.735
1.0IP, 3H 3R, 3ER, 1BB, 0SO, 0HR

Ervin Santana: 6.1IP, 4H, 1R, 1ER, 0BB, 5SO, 0HR - ND
Justin Speier: 0.2IP, 0H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 1SO, 0HR - H
Scot Shields: 0.1IP, 1H, 3R, 3ER, 2BB, 1SO, 0HR - H
Francisco Rodriguez: 1.2IP, 2H, 1R, 1ER, 0BB, 1SO, 0HR - BS, W

Josh Beckett: 7.0IP, 5H, 2R, 1ER, 1BB, 8SO, 0HR - ND
Eric Gagne: 1.0IP, 3H 3R, 3ER, 1BB, 0SO, 0HR - BS, L

So there's the split on the double-header. David Ortiz was swinging a hot bat today and there was an impressive bullpen collapse on both sides in the second game with a pair of blown saves.

Saturday, August 18: Jered Weaver (8-5)(LAA) vs. Curt Schilling (6-5)(BOS)

Once again, the interesting match up of the day can be found in Boston as the series goes on.
Angels 5, Red Sox 10
(Win Probability graphing by Fangraphs)
Angels player of the game: (LF) Reggie Willits - WPA +.138
2/4, 1R, 0HR, 1RBI, 0BB, 1SO
Angels lowest contributor: (SP) Jered Weaver - WPA -.455
4.1IP, 8H, 6R, 6ER, 1BB, 5SO, 1HR

Red Sox player of the game: (DH) David Ortiz - WPA +.251
1/3, 2R, 1HR, 4RBI, 2BB, 1SO
Red Sox lowest contributor: (SP) Curt Schilling - WPA -.166
6.0IP, 8H, 5R, 5ER, 0BB, 3SO, 2HR

Jered Weaver: 4.1IP, 8H, 6R, 6ER, 1BB, 5SO, 1HR - L

Curt Schilling: 6.0IP, 8H, 5R, 5ER, 0BB, 3SO, 2HR - W
Mike Timlin: 1.0IP, 1H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 0SO, 0HR - H
Hideki Okajima: 1.0IP, 0H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 0SO, 0HR - H

Curt Schilling's bad start happens to beat Jered Weaver's bad start as Weaver continues the sophomore slump I was afraid he'd have this season.

Sunday, August 19: CC Sabathia (14-6)(CLE) vs. James Shields (9-8)(TB)

The only mis-match in this game is the offense. If Shields had the Indians hitting (and playing defense) behind him he'd probably have a Sabathia-like win record.
Indians 3, Devil Rays 4 (12)
(Win Probability graphing by Fangraphs)
Indians player of the game: (SP) CC Sabathia - WPA +.263
8.0IP, 5H, 2R, 2ER, 0BB, 6SO, 2HR
Indians lowest contributor: (RP) Joe Borowski - WPA -.291
1.0IP, 2H, 1R, 1ER, 1BB, 2SO, 0HR

Devil Rays player of the game: (LF) Carl Crawford - WPA +.350
1/5, 1R, 0HR, 1RBI, 0BB, 1SO
Devil Rays lowest contributor of the game: (2B) Brendan Harris - WPA -.159
2/5, 0R, 0HR, 0RBI, 0BB, 1SO

CC Sabathia: 8.0IP, 5H, 2R, 2ER, 0BB, 6SO, 2HR - ND
Joe Borowski: 1.0IP, 2H, 1R, 1ER, 1BB, 2SO, 0HR - BS
Rafael Perez: 1.0IP, 2H, 1R, 1ER, 0BB, 1SO, 0HR - L

James Shields: 6.0IP, 6H, 2R, 2ER, 1BB, 6SO, 0HR - ND
Scott Dohmann: 2.0IP, 1H, 0R, 0ER, 1BB, 1SO, 0HR - W

Some nice oscillation in the extra innings of the win probability graph. Sabathia is denied the victory despite an excellent outing. And the D-Rays take this one despite some shaky relief pitching.

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