Saturday, August 04, 2007

3 Picks: Snakes Look to Swallow Penny


Sunday, August 5: Brandon Webb (10-8)(ARI) vs. Brad Penny (13-2)(LAD)

An ace versus ace match up that has the potential to be a great pitchers duel. The snakes find themselves precariously perched in first place and this is exactly the team they need to beat to build up a little breathing room at the top. Taking their game directly to Los Angeles with Brandon Webb on the mound is just about the only time they really control their own destiny.
Diamondbacks 3, Dodgers 0
(Win Probability graphing by Fangraphs)
Diamondbacks player of the game: (SP) Brandon Webb - WPA +.484
9.0IP, 7H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 4SO, 0HR
Diamondbacks lowest contributor: (SP) Brandon Webb (as hitter) - WPA -.080
0/4, 0R, 0HR, 0RBI, 0BB, 0SO

Dodgers player of the game: (RF) Andre Ethier - WPA +.069
2/3, 0R, 0HR, 0RBI, 0BB, 0SO
Dodgers lowest contributor: (SS) Rafael Furcal - WPA -.147
0/4, 0R, 0HR, 0RBI, 0BB, 0SO

Brandon Webb: 9.0IP, 7H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 4SO, 0HR - W

Brad Penny: 7.0IP, 6H, 3R, 3ER, 0BB, 5SO, 0HR - L

And the Snakes do manage to swallow the Penny as Webb was unbelievable. With a complete game effort, no walks and 4 strike outs on a 7-hit shutout. It's August and it might be time to take the D-Back threat of a post season run seriously.

Monday, August 6: Curt Schilling (6-4)(BOS) vs. Jered Weaver (7-5)(LAA)

The Angels and Red Sox have played some intensely watchable baseball over the years and this match up of veteran versus young phenom (with similar records this year) is as compelling as they come.
Red Sox 2, Angels 4
(Win Probability graphing by Fangraphs)
Red Sox player of the game: (RF) JD Drew - WPA - +.153
3/4, 0R, 0HR, 0RBI, 0BB, 0SO
Red Sox lowest contributor: (CF) Coco Crisp - WPA -.193
0/4, 0R, 0HR, 0RBI, 0BB, 2SO

Angels player of the game: (2B) Maicer Izturis - WPA +.160
1/4, 1R, 1HR, 1RBI, 0BB, 1SO
Angels lowest contributor: (LF) Reggie Willits - WPA -.055
0/2, 0R, 0HR, 0RBI, 0BB, 1SO

Curt Schilling: 6.0IP, 9H, 4R, 4ER, 0BB, 5SO, 1HR - L

Jered Weaver: 6.0IP, 6H, 2R, 2ER, 2BB, 4SO, 1HR - ND
Justin Speier: 1.0IP, 1H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 0SO, 0HR - W
Scot Shields: 1.0IP, 1H, 0R, 0ER, 1BB, 2SO, 0HR - H
Francisco Rodriguez: 1.0IP, 0H, 0R, 0ER, 1BB, 1SO, 0HR - SV

After more than 130 career saves at the age of 25 and a career ERA around 2.33 I'm starting to think that K-Rod is a decent closer. This was a good win for the Angels as it was a key long ball from Izturis that gave them enough offense to beat Schilling. If they were relying on Vlad to get things done every night then the Mariners might start to loom much larger in the rear view mirror.

Tuesday, August 7: Jake Peavy (11-5)(SD) vs. Anthony Reyes (1-10)(STL)

This is less of a pick-for-excellent match up as an eye-popping mismatch as Anthony Reyes takes his 6+ ERA and 1-10 record up against the leading candidate for the NL Cy Young Award. The defending world champion Cardinals are way, way out of contention and on paper Reyes looks like a sacrificial offering to the strike-out machine that is Jake Peavy.
Padres 4, Cardinals 0
(Win Probability graphing by Fangraphs)
Padres player of the game: (SP) Jake Peavy - WPA +.363
6.0IP, 3H, 0R, 0ER, 2BB, 5SO, 0HR
Padres lowest contributor: (CF) Mike Cameron - WPA -.129
0/4, 0R, 0HR, 0RBI, 1BB, 1SO

Cardinals player of the game: (SP) Anthony Reyes - WPA +.232
7.0IP, 6H, 1R, 1ER, 1BB, 2SO, 0HR
Cardinals lowest contributor: (3B) Scott Rolen - WPA -.250
0/4, 0R, 0HR, 0RBI, 0BB, 0SO

Jake Peavy: 6.0IP, 3H, 0R, 0ER, 2BB, 5SO, 0HR - W
Cla Meredith: 1.0IP, 1H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 0SO, 0HR - H
Heath Bell: 1.0IP, 1H, 0R, 0ER, 1BB, 1SO, 0HR - H

Anthony Reyes: 7.0IP, 6H, 1R, 1ER, 1BB, 2SO, 0HR - L

Reyes may go to 1-11 on the season with this loss. But you've got to tip your hat to him for pitching well enough to win most ball games. It was the anemic Cardinals offense that lost this one for him.

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