Wednesday, August 01, 2007

3 Picks: Into August with the Contenders (and the White Sox)


Thursday, August 2: Jon Garland (8-7)(CHW) vs. Roger Clemens (3-5)(NYY)

If the Yankees continue to light up the White Sox they way they have been in this home series then even the Rocket should pick up a win in this one. But I don't think Garland will be quite the pushover the Yankee offense has seen over the last couple of games.
White Sox 13, Yankees 9
(Win Probability graphing by Fangraphs)
White Sox player of the game: (RF) Jermaine Dye - WPA +.381
4/5, 3R, 2HR, 4RBI, 0BB, 1SO
White Sox lowest contributor: (SP) Jon Garland - WPA -.301
1.1IP, 9H, 8R, 8ER, 0BB, 1SO, 1HR

Yankees player of the game: (C) Jorge Posada - WPA +.176
2/4, 1R, 0HR, 2RBI, 0BB, 1SO
Yankees lowest contributor: (SP) Roger Clemens - WPA -.419
1.2IP, 9H, 8R, 3ER, 0BB, 0SO, 0HR

Jon Garland: 1.1IP, 9H, 8R, 8ER, 0BB, 1SO, 1HR - ND
Boone Logan: 2.0IP, 2H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 2SO, 0HR - W
Matt Thornton: 0.2IP, 0H, 0R, 0ER, 1BB, 2SO, 0HR - H
Mike MacDougal: 2.0IP, 1H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 3SO, 0HR - H

Roger Clemens: 1.2IP, 9H, 8R, 3ER, 0BB, 0SO, 0HR - ND
Jeff Karstens: 3.1IP, 5H, 3R, 3ER, 0BB, 1SO, 1HR - L

One doesn't expect a Jon Garland/Roger Clemens match up to turn into a total slug-fest as neither starter could pitch their way out of the second inning. And when it comes down to a battle of the White Sox bullpen versus the Yankees bullpen after tying everything up at 8 runs apiece after two innings my money is on the White Sox relievers. There was a total of 12 pitchers used in this game. That is ugly. Though one thing jumps out at me from Roger Clemens line: 8-runs, 3-earned runs. Only 3 of 8 were earned? What does that say about the Bombers' defense? Ugly, ugly game.

Friday, August 3: Jeff Francis (11-5)(COL) vs. John Smoltz (10-5)(ATL)

Jeff Francis can and will test the patience of the Braves' bats in this one. It should be interesting to see how the Francis-Teixeira at-bats shake out in this one. I can't wait to see how well Teixeira tees off of National League pitching as a newly acquired rental for Atlanta.
Rockies 9, Braves 2
(Win Probability graphing by Fangraphs)
Rockies player of the game: (SP) Jeff Francis - WPA +.226
6.0IP, 6H, 1R, 1ER, 0BB, 8SO, 0HR
Rockies lowest contributor: (SP) Jeff Francis (as hitter) - WPA -.057
0/3, 0R, 0HR, 0RBI, 0BB, 1SO

Braves player of the game: (2B) Kelly Johnson - WPA +.087
2/3, 0R, 0HR, 0RBI, 1BB, 0SO
Braves lowest contributor: (SP) John Smoltz - WPA -.253
6.2IP, 9H, 7R, 5ER, 4BB, 5SO, 1HR
Jeff Francis: 6.0IP, 6H, 1R, 1ER, 0BB, 8SO, 0HR - W

John Smoltz: 6.2IP, 9H, 7R, 5ER, 4BB, 5SO, 1HR - L

An impressive outing for Jeff Francis. I continue to be impressed by his approach with the off-speed stuff. And John Smoltz actually had things in hand until the seventh inning. Smoltz didn't have his best stuff today, but he battled and was simply left out on the mound a bit too long.

Saturday, August 4: Daisuke Matsuzaka (12-8)(BOS) vs. Jarrod Washburn (8-7)(SEA)

Dice-K gets another chance against the Seattle Mariners. And this time he doesn't match up against the King as Washburn looks to work on his home record.
Red Sox 4, Mariners 3
(Win Probability graphing by Fangraphs)
Red Sox player of the game: (SP) Daisuke Matsuzaka - WPA +.243
7.0IP, 6H, 2R, 2ER, 2BB, 10SO, 2HR
Red Sox lowest contributor: (2B) Dustin Pedroia - WPA -.114
0/4, 0R, 0HR, 0RBI, 1BB, 0SO

Mariners player of the game: (C) Kenji Johjima - WPA +.099
2/4, 0R, 0HR, 1RBI, 0BB, 0SO
Mariners lowest contributor: (CF) Ichiro Suzuki - WPA -.231
0/5, 0R, 0HR, 0RBI, 0BB, 1SO
Daisuke Matsuzaka: 7.0IP, 6H, 2R, 2ER, 2BB, 10SO, 2HR - W
Eric Gagne: 1.0IP, 3H, 1R, 1ER, 0BB, 1SO, 0HR - H
Jonathan Papelbon: 1.0IP, 0H, 0R, 0ER, 2BB, 2SO, 0HR - SV

Jarrod Washburn: 6.1IP, 8H, 4R, 4ER, 2BB, 4SO, 0HR - L

Whatever dim hope the Yankees may have entertained of catching up to the Red Sox in the division race evaporated completely when Boston acquired Eric Gagne at the trade deadline. And for the BoSox pitching crew this game unfolded exactly the way it was engineered: Dice-K rings up 10 strikeouts in 7 innings of work, Gagne pitches one inning for the hold and the Papelbon Speed Shop comes in to slam the door. The thing that makes the BoSox even more terrifying is the fact that they have so many other capable arms in the rotation and bullpen that weren't on display in this outing.

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