3 Picks: Rockin' the Kazmir

Wednesday, August 8: Carlos Zambrano (14-7)(CHC) vs. Roy Oswalt (11-6)(HOU)

With no Chris Carpenter this year these two are the undisputed aces of the NL Central. The Cubs are making a good run at the division title and could use a good series in Houston.

Cubs 2, Astros 8

(Win Probability graphing by Fangraphs)
Cubs player of the game: (3B) Mark DeRosa - WPA +.064
2/5, 0R, 0HR, 0RBI, 0BB, 0SO
Cubs lowest contributor: (SP) Carlos Zambrano - WPA -.196
5.2IP, 8H, 7R, 7ER, 3BB, 6SO, 2HR

Astros player of the game: (SP) Roy Oswalt - WPA +.288
6.0IP, 6H, 0R, 0ER, 4BB, 4SO, 0HR
Astros lowest contributor: (CF) Jason Lane - WPA -.063
0/5, 0R, 0HR, 0RBI, 0BB, 2SO

Carlos Zambrano: 5.2IP, 8H, 7R, 7ER, 3BB, 6SO, 2HR - L

Roy Oswalt: 6.0IP, 6H, 0R, 0ER, 4BB, 4SO, 0HR - W

Roy Oswalt pitched well enough for even the Astros' offense to pick him up. And Zambrano certainly did what he could to bring that offense to life. Bad game for the Cubs' ace at a time when they needed a good outing to take the division lead.

Thursday, August 9: Scott Kazmir (8-7)(TB) vs. Jeremy Bonderman (10-4)(DET)

The Tigers will be looking to rock the Kazmir in Motown. Bonderman has come a long way since his 6-19 rookie year back when the Tigers where far from contending in 2003.

Devil Rays 8, Tigers 1

(Win Probability graphing by Fangraphs)
Devil Rays player of the game: (SP) Scott Kazmir - WPA +.330
6.0IP, 3H, 0R, 0ER, 1BB, 7SO, 0HR
Devil Rays lowest contributor: (1B) Carlos Pena - WPA -.091
0/5, 0R, 0HR, 0RBI, 0BB, 4SO

Tigers player of the game: (DH) Gary Sheffield - WPA +.049
1/4, 0R, 0HR, 0RBI, 0BB, 0SO
Tigers lowest contributor: (SP) Jeremy Bonderman - WPA -.153
6.0IP, 10H, 7R, 7ER, 3BB, 4SO, 1HR

Scott Kazmir: 6.0IP, 3H, 0R, 0ER, 1BB, 7SO, 0HR - W

Jeremy Bonderman: 6.0IP, 10H, 7R, 7ER, 3BB, 4SO, 1HR - L

The Kazmir rocks! Six innings of work from each starter with a world of difference between them for results. Fanning 7 hitters works a lot better than allowing 7 earned runs. That kind of baseball math is easy.

Friday, August 10: Daisuke Matsuzaka (13-8)(BOS) vs. Brian Burres (5-5)(BAL)

Dice-K comes to my town.

Red Sox 5, Orioles 6(Win Probability Graphing by Fangraphs)
Red Sox player of the game: (SP) Diasuke Matsuzaka - WPA +.232
7.0IP, 4H, 1R, 1ER, 4BB, 7SO, 0HR
Red Sox lowest contributor: (RP) Hideki Okajima - WPA -.489
1.1IP, 2H, 1R, 1ER, 0BB, 1SO, 0HR

Orioles player of the game: (SP) Erik Bedard - WPA +.234
7.2IP, 4H, 3R, 3ER, 2BB, 7SO, 0HR
Orioles lowest contributor: (RP) Chad Bradford - WPA -.260
0.0IP, 2H, 2R, 2ER, 0BB, 0SO, 0HR

Daisuke Matsuzaka: 7.0IP, 4H, 1R, 1ER, 4BB, 7SO, 0HR - ND
Hideki Okajima: 1.1IP, 2H, 1R, 1ER, 0BB, 1SO, 0HR - BS, L

Erik Bedard: 7.2IP, 4H, 3R, 3ER, 2BB, 7SO, 0HR - ND
Jim Hoey: 1.1IP, 1H, 0R, 0ER, 1BB, 1SO, 0HR - W

Congratulations to Jim Hoey for his first career, major league win. This was an unusual game in that all the big positive and negative Win Probability points fell on the pitching with examples of great and poor pitching from both sides. This is especially surprising considering the kind of offense Boston typically features.