3 Picks: The Rocket Limps Into July Seeking That Elusive Second Win

Sunday, July 1: James Shields (6-3)(TB) vs. Cliff Lee (4-4)(CLE)

Shields has been a real shot in the arm for my fantasy rotation. And the best part is that he wasn't on any one's radar before this season started. It's a little like the season Cliff Lee had a couple years back now. Cleveland will throw a good offense at Shields as he tries to work the pitching-friendly confines of Jacobs Field.

Devil Rays 2, Indians 3(Win Probability graphing by Fangraphs)
Devil Rays player of the Game: (DH) Ty Wigginton - WPA +.122
1/3, 0R, 0HR, 0RBI, 1BB, 0SO
Devil Rays lowest contributor: (CF) Delmon Young - WPA -.227
0/3, 0R, 0HR, 1RBI, 0BB, 2SO

Indians player of the Game: (SP) Cliff Lee - WPA +.425
8.0IP, 4H, 1R, 1ER, 2BB, 9SO, 1HR
Indians lowest contributor: (2B) Josh Barfield - WPA -.134
0/3, 0R, 0HR, 0RBI, 0BB, 1SO

James Shields: 6.1IP, 6H, 3R, 2ER, 0BB, 10SO, 1HR - L

Cliff Lee: 8.0IP, 4H, 1R, 1ER, 2BB, 9SO, 1HR - W

Ten strikeouts wasn't going to get the job done with the shoddy Devil Rays defense (allowing one unearned run - the difference in this ballgame) combined with Cliff Lee's 4-hit/1-run effort. But in fantasy-land, 10 K's is golden. Keep 'em coming James.

Monday, July 2: Boof Bonser (5-4)(MIN) vs. Roger Clemens (1-3)(NYY)

Clemens is about to set a record for the most money spent per win as he adds his expensive arm to the sputtering Yankees rotation. And today he faces indignities handed out by a fine pitcher named Boof.

Twins 1, Yankees 5

(Win Probability Graphing by Fangraphs)
Twins player of the game: (C) Joe Mauer - WPA +.064
2/4, 0R, 0HR, 0RBI, 0BB, 0SO
Twins lowest contributer of the game: (CF) Torii Hunter - WPA -.104
0/3, 0R, 0HR, 0RBI, 0BB, 1SO

Yankees player of the game: (SP) Roger Clemens - WPA +.317
8.0IP, 2H, 1R, 1ER, 1BB, 4SO, 0H
Yankees lowest contributer of the game: (LF) Hideki Matsui - WPA -.133
0/4, 0R, 0HR, 0RBI, 0BB, 0SO

Boof Bonser: 5.1IP, 9H, 4R, 4ER, 3BB, 6SO, 1HR - L

Roger Clemens: 8.0IP, 2H, 1R, 1ER, 1BB, 4SO, 0HR - W

Clemens looked much better in this start than he did in Baltimore. Perhaps the cooler weather helped the old man out. Whatever it was, he put up some vintage Rocket numbers and the Twins - normally a better hitting team - couldn't figure him out.

Tuesday, July 3: Scott Kazmir (5-4)(TB) vs. Daisuke Matsuzaka (9-5)(BOS)

I've been going into Dice-K withdrawals and I don't know if I can wait until Tuesday for this one. Big Papi will be looking to rock the Kazmir in this one.

Devil Rays 1, Red Sox 4

(Win Probability graphing by Fangraphs)
Devil Rays player of the game: (RP) Jason Hammel - WPA +.007
1.0IP, 1H, 0R, 0ER, 2BB, 2SO, 0HR
Devil Rays lowest contributor: (SP) Scott Kazmir - WPA -.146
6.0IP, 6H, 4R, 3ER, 3BB, 6SO, 0HR
Red Sox player of the Game: (SP) Daisuke Matsuzaka - WPA +.349
8.0IP, 4H, 0R, 0ER, 1BB, 9SO, 0HR
Red Sox lowest contributor: (RF) Wily Mo Pena - WPA -.090
0/4, 0R, 0HR, 0RBI, 0BB, 4SO

Scott Kazmir: 6.0IP, 6H, 4R, 3ER, 3BB, 6SO, 0HR - L

Daisuke Matsuzaka: 8.0IP, 4H, 0R, 0ER, 1BB, 9SO, 0HR - W

Dice-K shuts out the lowly Devil Rays through 8 innings. The shutout would have been complete if Jonathan Papelbon hadn't allowed Carlos Pena to hit the only home run of the game. But it still goes down as a W. And on a day when the Yankees win, it keeps that distance over their rival.

Pythagorean Win % Projections - NL Central

I like to run Pythagorean Win % Projections in mid season because it's a good indicator of which teams have been lucky so far and which teams are due for a correction unless they find a way to dramatically improve their ratio of runs scored to runs allowed. And I'm starting with the NL Central Division because it's a quirky one this year. The Milwaukee Brewers - a team that hasn't had a season over .500 since 1992 (back when they were in the AL East) - are currently at the top of the division as the only team out of 6 with a winning record so far. All their plum draft picks over the lean years seem to be paying dividends this season. At this point, I think the odds favor them to take the division title.

	NL Central - Projections as of June 28, 2007
	projected final record based on win%
1	Milwaukee Brewers	.590	96 - 66
2	Chicago Cubs	.494	80 - 82
3	St. Louis Cardinals	.453	73 - 89
4	Pittsburgh Pirates	.423	69 - 93
5	Houston Astros	.410	66 - 96
6	Cincinnati Reds	.380	62 - 100

And here is the Pythagorean Win % projection:

	NL Central - Projections as of June 28, 2007
	projected final record based on Pythagorean Win%
1	Milwaukee Brewers		.553	90 - 72
2	Chicago Cubs		.541	88 - 74
3	Cincinnati Reds		.446	72 - 90
4	Houston Astros		.437	71 - 91
5	Pittsburgh Pirates		.412	67 - 95
6	St. Louis Cardinals		.403	65 - 97

This projection shows no change in the top two spots - though it does suggest a tighter race forming between the Brewers and Cubs with Chicago due for an improved record down the stretch as Milwaukee fades somewhat. The 3 - 6 slots are flipped from their current standings with the Pythagorean Win Percentage showing the defending World Champion Cardinals headed for last place. It should be interesting to see if the Cubs can pull over .500 by the end of the season. Though I don't think an 88 - 74 record would be good enough to make them a factor in the Wild Card race. It looks like the Brew-Crew is for real this year and poised to be a factor in the playoffs.

3 Picks: AL Cy Young vs. the No-Hit Wonder & Two in Houston

Thursday, June 28: Aaron Cook (4-5)(COL) vs. Roy Oswalt (7-5)(HOU)

It's the battle of NL righties as Oswalt tries to lead the Houston toward .500. And Cook looks to keep the balls in the yard.

Rockies 5, Astros 8

(Win Probability graphing by Fangraphs)

Rockies Player of the Game: (SS) Troy Tulowitzki - WPA +.324
3/5, 2R, 1HR, 1RBI, 0BB, 1SO
Rockies lowest contributor of the game: (RP) Brian Fuentes - WPA -.791
0.2IP, 3H, 4R, 4ER, 0BB, 1SO, 1HR

Astros Player of the Game: (OF) Carlos Lee - WPA +.637 (walk-off grand slam home run)
2/6, 1R, 1HR, 4RBI, 0BB, 0SO
Astros lowest contributor of the game: (RP) Chad Qualls - WPA -.385
0.0IP, 3H, 2R, 2ER, 0BB, 0SO, 1HR

Aaron Cook: 7.0IP, 7H, 1R, 1ER, 1BB, 2SO, 0HR - ND
LaTroy Hawkins: 0.2IP, 4H, 3R, 3ER, 0BB, 0SO, 2HR - BS
Brian Fuentes: 0.2IP, 3H, 4R, 4ER, 0BB, 1SO, 1HR - BS, L

Roy Oswalt: 7.0IP, 9H, 1R, 1ER, 2BB, 4SO, 1HR - ND
Brian Moehler: 1.0IP, 1H, 1R, 1ER, 0BB, 1SO, 1HR - W

With each starting pitcher just giving up one run in 7 innings of work it's a shame that they both come away with a no decision. But a walk-off grand slam with 2 out in the bottom of the seventh is a treat for the fans.

Friday, June 29: Johan Santana (8-6)(MIN) vs. Justin Verlander (9-2)(DET)

This is one of those match-ups that just leaps out with so much potential as the two best of the AL Central - possibly the best in the AL - square off in this one.

Twins 11, Tigers 1

(Win Probability graphing by Fangraphs)

Minnesota Twins player of the Game: (SP) Johan Santana - WPA +.245
6.0IP, 5H, 1R, 1ER, 1BB, 6SO, 1HR

Twins lowest contributor: (OF) Torii Hunter - WPA -.049
2/5, 1R, 2H, 0HR, 1RBI, 0BB, 1SO

Detroit Tigers player of the Game: (2B) Placido Polanco - WPA +.040
3/4, 1R, 1HR, 1RBI, 0BB, 0SO

Detroit Tigers lowest contributor: (SP) Justin Verlander - WPA -.228
5.0IP, 4H, 6R, 6ER, 5BB, 5SO, 1HR

Johan Santana: 6.0IP, 5H, 1R, 1ER, 1BB, 6SO, 1HR - W

Justin Verlander: 5.0IP, 4H, 6R, 6ER, 5BB, 5SO, 1HR - L

The one-time no-hit wonder gave up 4 hits in this one and 6 of the 11 runs that the Twins put on the board in this blowout. Johan is amazing. And there's a lot of understatement in that.

Saturday, June 30: Jeff Francis (7-5)(COL) vs. Jason Jennings (1-2)(HOU)

It's the Rockies pitcher versus the former Rockies pitcher as Jennings puts his nasty sinker to work in Houston. I really expected Jennings to be much more successful than 1-2 with the Astros.

Rockies 5, Astros 0(Win Probability graphing by Fangraphs)

Rockies Player of the Game: (SP) Jeff Francis - WPA +.391
7.0IP, 3H, 0R, 0ER, 4BB, 4SO, 0HR

Rockies lowest contributer of the game: (C) Chris Iannetta - WPA -.065
0/4, 0R, 0HR, 0RBI, 0BB, 2SO

Astros Player of the Game: (2B) Craig Biggio - WPA +.040
2/4, 0R, 0HR, 0RBI, 0BB, 1SO

Astros lowest contributer of the game: (OF) Hunter Pence - WPA -.112
0/4, 0R, 0HR, 0RBI, 0BB, 1SO

Jeff Francis: 7.0IP, 3H, 0R, 0ER, 4BB, 4SO, 0HR - W

Jason Jennings: 7.0IP, 5H, 3R, 3ER, 2BB, 6SO, 0HR - L

Despite the quality start for Jennings, he gets charged with the loss. He goes to 1-3 on the year thanks to the lackluster Astros offense (those three words just go together somehow) and Francis' ability to shut out the impatient bats of Houston.

3 Picks: Interleague Intrigue

Monday, June 18: Curt Schilling (6-3)(BOS) vs. Chuck James (5-6)(ATL)

Purists may have issues with interleague play - or even the pairing of Boston and Atlanta as "natural" interleague rivals. But match ups like this one make me a big fan of the format. And anyone who knows the history of the Boston Braves can see a natural fit toward this particular rivalry.(Win Probability graphing by Fangraphs)
Curt Schilling: 4.1IP, 10H, 6R, 6ER, 2BB, 0SO, 1HR - L

Chuck James: 5.1IP, 5H, 2R, 2ER, 4BB, 4SO, 2HR - W

All told, 11 different pitchers took to the mound in this game and only the starters came away with the decision - no holds or saves for the relievers in this one. This was a rough outing for Schilling.

Tuesday, June 19: Johan Santana (6-6)(MIN) vs. Jorge Sosa (6-2)(NYM)

Johan is only 6-6 so far this season? An uncharacteristic lack of run support is holding el Presidente (and defending AL Cy Young Award winner) from a 12-0 record. Equally shocking is Sosa's 6-2. Jorge has a winning record? In the NL East? Really? Santana pitching at Shea? Cool.(Win Probability graphing by Fangraphs)
Johan Santana: 9.0IP, 4H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 1SO, 0HR - W

Jorge Sosa: 3.1IP, 8H, 7R, 5ER, 2BB, 1SO, 0HR - L

Santana continues to pitch like the best pitcher in the American League (which makes him the best pitcher in the majors) with a complete game shutout against the Jorge Sosa I'd expected to see all year.

Wednesday, June 20: Andy Pettitte (4-4)(NYY) vs. Jeff Francis (6-5)(COL)

The suddenly resurgent Yankees play a little humidor ball at the mile high as Jeff Francis matches up against the former rival Astros starter. The real question is: can A-Rod handle a Francis curve-ball?(Win Probability graphing by Fangraphs)
Andy Pettite: 6.2IP, 9H, 6R, 6ER, 2BB, 4SO, 1HR - L
Jeff Francis: 7.0IP, 5H, 1R, 1ER, 1BB, 9SO, 0HR - W

The Francis quality start - and 9 strikeouts - beats the Andy Pettitte not-quality start in this one. And in the process, Jeff Francis endears himself to fans everywhere for his good deed of beating the Yankees.

- 3 picks will go on a brief hiatus... possibly missing a Dice-K start or two in the process -

3 Picks: Birds, Sox and Mile High

Friday, June 15: Micah Owings (4-1)(ARI) vs. Erik Bedard (4-4)(BAL)

Micah Owings is one of the more interesting rookie starting pitchers this year. The future looks bright for the D-backs with a talent like that in the rotation.(Win Probability graphing by Fangraphs)
Micah Owings: 6.0IP, 6H, 3R, 3ER, 1BB, 0SO, 0HR - ND
Doug Slaten: 1.0IP, 1H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 0SO, 0HR - W
Tony Pena: 1.0IP, 2H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 0SO, 0HR - H

Erik Bedard: 7.0IP, 6H, 2R, 2ER, 0BB, 9SO, 1HR - ND
Jamie Walker: 0.1IP, 0H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 0SO, 0HR - H
Todd Williams: 0.2IP, 2H, 2R, 2ER, 1BB, 0SO, 1HR - BS, L

The Orioles can't catch a break as they waste a quality start from Bedard. 9 strikeouts in 7 innings for a no decision? I don't know what is up with that bullpen, but it isn't working. The O's seem to be losing a lot of games this way. Actually, they've found a lot of ways to lose games lately.

Saturday, June 16: Matt Cain (2-6)(SF) vs. Daisuke Matsuzaka (7-5)(BOS)

Still tracking those gyro-ballin' starts.(Win Probability graphing by Fangraphs)
Matt Cain: 7.0IP, 3H, 1R, 1ER, 1BB, 3SO, 1HR - L

Daisuke Matsuzaka: 7.0IP, 3H, 0R, 0ER, 3BB, 8SO, 0HR - W
Hideki Okajima: 1.0IP, 1H, 0R, 0ER, 1BB, 1SO, 0HR - H
Jonathan Papelbon: 1.0IP, 0H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 0SO, 0HR - SV

Wow! That is my kind of game. Both starters give up 3 hits in 7 innings of work. But it's the one that went out of the yard for a home run off the bat of Manny Ramirez that makes the difference in this 1-0 ballgame. This has to be a fun time to be a BoSox fan.

Sunday, June 17: Scott Kazmir (4-3)(TB) vs. Aaron Cook (4-3)(COL)

It's interesting that both these starters are 4-3 at this point in the season. I wonder if where they would be if they played for teams with a more competitive lineup.(Win Probability graphing by Fangraphs)
Scott Kazmir: 6.0IP, 6H, 3R, 3ER, 4BB, 5SO, 2HR - W
Jay Witasick: 1.0IP, 1H, 0R, 0ER, 2BB, 0SO, 0HR - H
Al Reyes: 1.0IP, 0H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 2SO, 0HR - SV

Aaron Cook: 6.0IP, 10H, 6R, 6ER, 0BB, 0SO, 3HR - L

These two expansion clubs from different leagues may be the future of major league baseball as each works through "rebuilding mode" with actual signs of building (the Orioles should take some notes). Mariano Rivera may have the reputation as the sandman as a closer. But it's call me Al Reyes who's actually getting the saves in the AL East this year.

3 Picks: Time to Throw a Sinker

Tuesday, June 12: Brandon Webb (6-3)(ARI) vs. Chien-Ming Wang (5-4)(NYY)

There should be lots of defense in this game as two of the best sinker-ball pitchers in either league try to induce ground-ball outs all night long. And the Diamondbacks get to rekindle their rivalry as the team that beat the Yankees in the World Series in 2001.(Win Probability graphing by Fangraphs)
Brandon Webb: 7.0IP, 5H, 4R, 3ER, 2BB, 4SO, 1HR - L

Chien-Ming Wang: 7.0IP, 6H, 1R, 1ER, 0BB, 2SO, 1HR - W
Kyle Farnsworth: 1.0IP, 1H, 0R, 0ER, 1BB, 1SO, 0HR - H
Mariano Rivera: 1.0IP, 0H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 1SO, 0HR - SV

When Webb couldn't get out of the first inning without giving up the home run to Bobby Abreu the sinking feeling that the Yankees weren't going to lose this one began. Even with Chad Tracy answering back with his own blast in the fourth inning - his first game since coming off the DL - the damage was already too much for the D-backs to battle back.

Wednesday, June 13: Jorge Sosa (6-1)(NYM) vs. Brad Penny (7-1)(LAD)

Jorge Sosa wasn't really on my radar at the start of the season. Other than his 13-3 record in 2005 with the Braves, recent history did not suggest a 6-1 record for Jorge at this point in the season. Penny is pitching like the ace of the Dodgers' staff. And that's not surprising given his ability.(Win Probability graphing by Fangraphs)
Jorge Sosa: 5.2IP, 8H, 6R, 6ER, 1BB, 1SO, 1HR - L

Brad Benny: 7.0IP, 7H, 1R, 1ER, 0BB, 7SO, 0HR - W

Jorge regressed to last year's form in this one as he allows 6 runs on 8 hits.

Thursday, June 14: Jeff Francis (5-5)(COL) vs. Josh Beckett (9-0)(BOS)

Francis will test the patience of the Red Sox hitters while Beckett looks to stay perfect. Rockies at Fenway? Interleague play does bring out unusual situations.(Win Probability graphing by Fangraphs)
Jeff Francis: 5.0IP, 7H, 0R, 0ER, 2BB, 6SO, 0HR - W

Josh Beckett: 5.0IP, 10H, 6R, 6ER, 1BB, 1SO, 2HR - L

Well, Beckett had to lose a decision eventually. And giving up a grand slam to Garrett Atkins put the loss squarely on his shoulders. Jeff Francis' particular blend of finesse - and one of the best curve balls in the business - had the Red Sox hitters off balance in a big way. Boston has been looking impatient at the plate in recent games.

Rockies 2, Orioles 4

June 8, 2007: Jeff Francis (COL) vs. Steve Tracshel (BAL)

Some observations from attending the game at Camden Yards this evening:

Temperature at game time: 96-degrees. It might be summer time.

Jeff Francis is 26, but looks like he's only 17. He has a disciplined warm-up routine and maintains his composure no matter what situation he's pitching in. He has great potential.

The Jeff Francis fastball seems to top out in the mid to high 80s. Which isn't overpowering. What he does do extremely well is mix up his pitches, speeds and location. I saw curve balls coming in at any point in the count. And I saw a lot of weak ground balls on his curve when batters were swinging way in front of the pitch.

Jeff Francis pitches for contact. And when some of those hits get through he can get into a bit of a jam. Also, Nick Markakis is an excellent hitter and he demonstrated what he could do when he's sitting on a fastball. His two-run home run was the difference in the ballgame.

As a left-handed pitcher, if Francis had a slightly better fastball his speed differential could be devastating. He's one to keep an eye on.

The Steve Tracshel fastball barely cracks 90. But he'll use it often. He's effective at getting the first two outs of an inning. Then he starts to nibble at the strike zone. Both of his runs allowed came after two outs.

For a veteran, Tracshel rattles easily. After allowing a run to score on a balk, he was clearly not as sharp and would not be back for the next inning.

I got to see the Orioles manager get ejected from the game. That was fun.

Oriole Ballpark at Camden Yards is a nice ballpark architecturally. It could use some upgrades. After experiencing the crispness of the video screen and wrap-around LCD at Angel Stadium the last couple of years the display at Camden Yards looks like a tiny, blurry throw-back to a bygone era. The sound system is also decidedly lo-fi.

Bad American League teams can out-hit bad National League teams.
(Win Probability graphing by Fangraphs)

3 Picks: Dice-K meets the Big Unit

Saturday, June 9: James Shields (5-0)(TB) vs. Dontrelle Willis (7-4)(FLA)

I'm deeply intrigued by this match-up. James Shields is one of the great stories of this season and an incredibly lucky pick-up for my fantasy team. Dontrelle Willis is an old favorite of mine.
(Win Probability graphing by Fangraphs)
James Shields: 7.0IP, 6H, 2R, 2ER, 0BB, 9SO, 1HR - W

Dontrelle Willis: 7.0IP, 8H, 4R, 4ER, 4BB, 5SO, 0HR - L

I was watching this one online as this was probably one of the most interesting match-ups of the season. James Shields is having an amazing year and he pitches a 9 strikeout game with no walks for the win while Dontrelle matched him inning for inning - even if he struggled with the base on balls. This was probably the only time Shields will be starting in Miami this year. So where were the fans? It doesn't seem right that this game was so lightly attended. (I had the same feeling last night at the O's game when there were so few on hand to see Jeff Francis.) Perhaps there isn't a proper fan base in Florida...

Sunday, June 10: Daisuke Matsuzaka (7-4)(BOS) vs. Randy Johnson (3-2)(ARI)

This is another great interleague match-up as Dice-K meets the Big Unit for the first, and potentially final, time.(Win Probability graphing by Fangraphs)
Daisuke Matsuzaka: 6.0IP, 4H, 2R, 2ER, 4BB, 9SO, 0HR - L

Randy Johnson: 6.0IP, 4H, 1R, 1ER, 3BB, 9SO, 0HR - W
Jailen Peguero: 1.0IP, 1H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 0SO, 0HR - H
Tony Pena: 1.0IP, 0H, 0R, 0ER, 1BB, 2SO, 0HR - H

Both starters racked up 9 strikeouts in 6 innings of work. But history has recorded the Big Unit as the victor in this particular match-up. Holding down that Red Sox offense is no easy feat and that big 43-year-old lefty from Walnut Creek still has plenty of gas.

Monday, June 11: Cha Seung Baek (3-2)(SEA) vs. Paul Byrd (6-2)(CLE)

With only 5 games on the schedule for this day I'm reverting to my Seattle instincts and taking an interest in this pairing.(Win Probability graphing by Fangraphs)
Cha Seung Baek: 5.1IP, 9H, 5R, 5ER, 1BB, 4SO, 0HR - ND
Sean Green: 0.1IP, 1H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 1SO, 0HR - H
George Sherrill: 1.1IP, 1H, 1R, 1ER, 0BB, 1SO, 0HR - H
Brandon Morrow: 2.0IP, 3H, 1R, 1ER, 4BB, 1SO, 0HR - BS, W

Paul Byrd: 4.0IP, 11H, 7R, 7ER, 0BB, 0SO, 3HR - ND
Joe Borowski: 1.0IP, 3H, 1R, 1ER, 0BB, 0SO, 0HR - L

One of the more quirky aspects of the way baseball scoring works is that someone like Brandon Morrow can get the blown save and yet pick up a win on a terrible performance with 4 walks, 3 hits and an earned run in just two innings pitched. (Congratulations Morrow). Both starters pitched poorly and were lucky to escape with only the no decision. It was a sloppy win for the M's. But they'll take it as they squeeze these make-up game pit-stops in Cleveland over the course of the season to make up for that 4-game snow cancellation from April.

3 Picks: Snakes in the Field

Wednesday, June 6: Matt Morris (6-2)(SF) vs. Brandon Webb (5-3)(ARI)

After pitching a real gem in New York last week it's time to see what Webb can do at home against a key division rival. The Giants go with Morris against the defending NL Cy Young Award winner.(Win Probability graphing by Fangraphs)
Matt Morris: 8.0IP, 7H, 1R, 1ER, 2BB, 6SO, 1HR - L

Brandon Webb: 7.0IP, 6H, 0R, 0ER, 4BB, 7SO, 0HR - W
Brandon Lyon: 1.0IP, 1H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 2SO, 0HR - H
Jose Valverde: 1.0IP, 0H, 0R, 0ER, 1BB, 2SO, 0HR - SV

Eight complete innings with only one run allowed is a long way to go for a loss. Webb is pitching in real Cy Young form so far this June.

Thursday, June 7: Cole Hamels (8-2)(PHI) vs. John Maine (6-3)(NYM)

Hamels has been the Philly stud this year. And pairing off against Maine makes this one compelling... on paper anyway.(Win Probability graphing by Fangraphs)
Cole Hamels: 7.0Ip, 10H, 3R, 3ER, 1BB, 5SO, 3HR - ND
Mike Zagurski: 1.0IP, 1H, 0R, 0ER, 1BB, 1SO, 0HR - W
Antonio Alfonseca: 1.0IP, 1H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 0SO, 0HR - SV

John Maine: 7.0IP, 6H, 2R, 2ER, 0BB, 2SO, 0HR - ND
Pedro Feliciano: 0.2IP, 0H, 0R, 0ER, 1BB, 0SO, 0HR - H
Billy Wagner: 1.1IP, 1H, 1R, 1ER, 1BB, 3SO, 1HR - BS
Scott Schoenweis: 0.1IP, 2H, 3R, 3ER, 1BB, 0SO, 0HR - L

It took 10 innings, but the Phillies got the sweep at Shea that they needed at this point. We'll see if they have any pitching left going into interleague play against the dreaded (er... dreadful) Royals. Congratulations to Mike Zagurski for recording his career first major league win.

Friday, June 8: Josh Beckett (8-0)(BOS) vs. Doug Davis (4-6)(ARI)

Beckett takes his "undefeated" status and his bat into the National League West where he'll need to take some at bats and keep snakes off the base paths.(Win Probability graphing by Fangraphs)
Josh Beckett: 8.0IP, 5H, 3R, 2ER, 0BB, 8SO, 1HR - W

Doug Davis: 4.0IP, 6H, 5R, 5ER, 5BB, 2SO, 2HR - L

No walks in 8 innings of work and 8 strikeouts. That's outstanding! Beckett goes to 9-0 with a rout of the D-Backs. Newsflash: excellent offensive American League team with great pitching beats anemic hitting National League team.

3 Picks: BoSox & Yanks... it's an East Coast Bias

Sunday, June 3: Andy Pettitte (3-4)(NYY) vs. Josh Beckett (8-0)(BOS)

Still undefeated and running with a hot Red Sox lineup and rotation Josh Beckett wages more baseball warfare at home against the last place Yankees. It's been a long, long time since "Yankees" and "last place" have been strung together with accuracy. And Andy Pettitte - much like the pending return of the Rocket on Monday - is indicative of the Bronx Bombers' efforts to reclaim their past greatness and falling just short.(Win Probability graphing by Fangraphs)
Andy Pettitte: 4.1IP, 7H, 5R, 5ER, 1BB, 3SO, 0HR - ND
Brian Bruney: 1.0IP, 1H, 0R, 0ER, 1BB, 0SO, 0HR - W
Mariano Rivera: 1.0IP, 0H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 2SO, 0HR - SV

Josh Beckett: 6.1IP, 8H, 4R, 4ER, 3BB, 5SO, 0HR - ND
Brendan Donnelly: 0.1IP, 0H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 0SO, 0HR - H
Hideki Okajima: 1.1IP, 2H, 1R, 1ER, 0BB, 1SO, 0HR - BS
Jonathan Papelbon: 1.0IP, 1H, 1R, 1ER, 0BB, 2SO, 1HR - L

Anybody else notice that Pettitte hasn't been as sharp as he used to be? He wasn't on his game last year with the Astros and returning to the AL East hasn't brought back the old Andy. This was not a good start from him. Beckett looked very good. And gets to remain undefeated via the no decision. The Yankees still have a very good offensive lineup and they can still get inside the Red Sox pitchers' heads. They'll improve over the next few months. So Boston had better work on keeping their lead in the division race.

Monday, June 4: Roger Clemens (0-0)(NYY) vs. Jon Garland (3-3)(CHW)

The Rocket - mercenary starting pitcher for hire in his late years - returns to save the Yankees. It must be nice to sit out the first couple months of the season before collecting $18+ million for the most desparate, deep pocket organization running. The Yanks will probably pull themselves out of their current tail spin. But Clemens' contribution to that move will probably not be overwhelming. Plus, Garland has the goods to match up against the old ace.(Win Probability graphing by Fangraphs)
Matt DeSalvo: 1.1IP, 4H, 3R, 2ER, 1BB, 0SO, 0HR - L

Jon Garland: 8.1IP, 7H, 2R, 1ER, 3BB, 3SO, 0HR - W
Bobby Jenks: 0.2IP, 1H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 0SO, 0HR - SV

No old aces for Garland this time. With the uncomfortable proximity of the words "Rocket" and "fatigued groin," Clemens was "scratched" (oh my) from this start. Rookie starter Matt DeSalvo couldn't pitch his way out of the second inning as the Yankees' starting rotation continues to look like an emergency situation.

Tuesday, June 5: Daisuke Matsuzaka (7-3)(BOS) vs. Lenny DiNardo (1-2)(OAK)

Can't... take... eyes... off... every... Dice-K... start...(Win Probability graphing by Fangraphs)
Daisuke Matsuzaka: 7.0IP, 7H, 2R, 2ER, 2BB, 8SO, 1HR - L

Lenny DiNardo: 6.0IP, 2H, 0R, 0ER, 6BB, 0SO, 0HR - W
Kiko Calero: 1.0IP, 1H, 0R, 0ER, 1BB, 1SO, 0HR - H
Jay Marshall: 0.2IP, 0H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 0SO, 0HR - H
Colby Lewis: 0.1IP, 0H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 0SO, 0HR - H
Alan Embree: 1.0IP, 0H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 1SO, 0HR - SV

A strong outing from Dice-K, but he's defeated by the combined shutout from Oakland's pitching staff. DiNardo was a little wild - with 6 walks and no strike outs - but it's the no runs allowed on 2 hits that earns him a win. Let the talk of June Swoon begin in bean town.