Monday, June 11, 2007

3 Picks: Time to Throw a Sinker


Tuesday, June 12: Brandon Webb (6-3)(ARI) vs. Chien-Ming Wang (5-4)(NYY)

There should be lots of defense in this game as two of the best sinker-ball pitchers in either league try to induce ground-ball outs all night long. And the Diamondbacks get to rekindle their rivalry as the team that beat the Yankees in the World Series in 2001.(Win Probability graphing by Fangraphs)
Brandon Webb: 7.0IP, 5H, 4R, 3ER, 2BB, 4SO, 1HR - L

Chien-Ming Wang: 7.0IP, 6H, 1R, 1ER, 0BB, 2SO, 1HR - W
Kyle Farnsworth: 1.0IP, 1H, 0R, 0ER, 1BB, 1SO, 0HR - H
Mariano Rivera: 1.0IP, 0H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 1SO, 0HR - SV

When Webb couldn't get out of the first inning without giving up the home run to Bobby Abreu the sinking feeling that the Yankees weren't going to lose this one began. Even with Chad Tracy answering back with his own blast in the fourth inning - his first game since coming off the DL - the damage was already too much for the D-backs to battle back.

Wednesday, June 13: Jorge Sosa (6-1)(NYM) vs. Brad Penny (7-1)(LAD)

Jorge Sosa wasn't really on my radar at the start of the season. Other than his 13-3 record in 2005 with the Braves, recent history did not suggest a 6-1 record for Jorge at this point in the season. Penny is pitching like the ace of the Dodgers' staff. And that's not surprising given his ability.(Win Probability graphing by Fangraphs)
Jorge Sosa: 5.2IP, 8H, 6R, 6ER, 1BB, 1SO, 1HR - L

Brad Benny: 7.0IP, 7H, 1R, 1ER, 0BB, 7SO, 0HR - W

Jorge regressed to last year's form in this one as he allows 6 runs on 8 hits.

Thursday, June 14: Jeff Francis (5-5)(COL) vs. Josh Beckett (9-0)(BOS)

Francis will test the patience of the Red Sox hitters while Beckett looks to stay perfect. Rockies at Fenway? Interleague play does bring out unusual situations.(Win Probability graphing by Fangraphs)
Jeff Francis: 5.0IP, 7H, 0R, 0ER, 2BB, 6SO, 0HR - W

Josh Beckett: 5.0IP, 10H, 6R, 6ER, 1BB, 1SO, 2HR - L

Well, Beckett had to lose a decision eventually. And giving up a grand slam to Garrett Atkins put the loss squarely on his shoulders. Jeff Francis' particular blend of finesse - and one of the best curve balls in the business - had the Red Sox hitters off balance in a big way. Boston has been looking impatient at the plate in recent games.

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