Pythagorean Win % Projections - NL Central

I like to run Pythagorean Win % Projections in mid season because it's a good indicator of which teams have been lucky so far and which teams are due for a correction unless they find a way to dramatically improve their ratio of runs scored to runs allowed. And I'm starting with the NL Central Division because it's a quirky one this year. The Milwaukee Brewers - a team that hasn't had a season over .500 since 1992 (back when they were in the AL East) - are currently at the top of the division as the only team out of 6 with a winning record so far. All their plum draft picks over the lean years seem to be paying dividends this season. At this point, I think the odds favor them to take the division title.

	NL Central - Projections as of June 28, 2007
	projected final record based on win%
1	Milwaukee Brewers	.590	96 - 66
2	Chicago Cubs	.494	80 - 82
3	St. Louis Cardinals	.453	73 - 89
4	Pittsburgh Pirates	.423	69 - 93
5	Houston Astros	.410	66 - 96
6	Cincinnati Reds	.380	62 - 100

And here is the Pythagorean Win % projection:

	NL Central - Projections as of June 28, 2007
	projected final record based on Pythagorean Win%
1	Milwaukee Brewers		.553	90 - 72
2	Chicago Cubs		.541	88 - 74
3	Cincinnati Reds		.446	72 - 90
4	Houston Astros		.437	71 - 91
5	Pittsburgh Pirates		.412	67 - 95
6	St. Louis Cardinals		.403	65 - 97

This projection shows no change in the top two spots - though it does suggest a tighter race forming between the Brewers and Cubs with Chicago due for an improved record down the stretch as Milwaukee fades somewhat. The 3 - 6 slots are flipped from their current standings with the Pythagorean Win Percentage showing the defending World Champion Cardinals headed for last place. It should be interesting to see if the Cubs can pull over .500 by the end of the season. Though I don't think an 88 - 74 record would be good enough to make them a factor in the Wild Card race. It looks like the Brew-Crew is for real this year and poised to be a factor in the playoffs.