3 Picks: No Snow Delays in May

Tuesday, May 1: AJ Burnett (2-1)(TOR) vs. CC Sabathia (3-0)(CLE)

It's AJ versus CC as the initials of the American League go at it in Cleveland.(Win Probability Graphing by Fangraphs)
AJ Burnett: 5.0IP, 8H, 7R, 7ER, 4BB, 7SO, 2HR - L

CC Sabathia: 6.0IP, 4H, 3R, 3ER, 0BB, 9SO, 3HR - W

I had expected a better start from AJ in this one. CC getting 9 strikeouts in 6 innings of work is ace-like. He clearly outpitched the Jays in this one.

Wednesday, May 2: Freddy Garcia (1-1)(PHI) vs. Chuck James (3-2)(ATL)

I'm a long time Freddy Garcia fan. And I'm intrigued by Chuck James given his great numbers in his rookie year last year. That makes for a compelling match up.
(Win Probability Graphing by Fangraphs)
Freddy Garcia: 5.0IP, 7H, 4R, 4ER, 2BB, 2SO, 0HR - L

Chuck James: 5.0IP, 8H, 3R, 3ER, 1BB, 6SO, 1HR - ND
Chad Paronto: 1.0IP, 0H, 0R, 0ER, 1BB, 0SO, 0HR - W
Tyler Yates: 1.0IP, 0H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 1SO, 0HR - H
Mike Gonzalez: 1.0IP, 0H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 2SO, 0HR - H
Rafael Soriano: 1.0IP, 1H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 0SO, 0HR - SV

The Braves bullpen showed a lot of depth in this contest. I'm still unhappy with the Soriano for Ramirez trade that gave Atlanta this outstanding reliever. He picked up his second save of the season in this one and could go on to be Atlanta's closer in the long run.

Thursday, May 3: Horacio Ramirez (2-1)(SEA) vs. Daisuke Matsuzaka (3-2)(BOS)

The smart money is not on Ramirez in this one. The D-Mat saga continues.(Win Probability Graphing by Fangraphs)

Horacio Ramirez: 4.0IP, 11H, 7R, 7ER, 3BB, 4SO, 1HR - ND
Chris Reitsma: 2.0IP, 3H, 1R, 1ER, 0BB, 2SO, 1HR - L

Daisuke Matsuzaka: 5.0IP, 5H, 7R, 7ER, 5BB, 1SO, 0HR - ND
Brendan Donnelly: 1.1IP, 0H, 0R, 0ER, 1BB, 0SO, 0HR - W
JC Romero: 1.0IP, 0H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 0SO, 0HR - SV

This one was had some poor pitching. Which is sadly only surprising on the Boston end side of the equation. Former Angels pitchers Donnelly and Romero brought their familiarity with their former division foe to pick up the win and save respectively.

3-picks: April Baseball Winding Down

Saturday, April 28: Jered Weaver (0-2)(LAA) vs. Jon Garland (0-1)(CHW)

Jered Weaver and Jon Garland were the best starting pitchers for their respective teams last year. Now they both come into this game looking for their first win of the '07 campaign.(Win Probability Graphing by Fangraphs)

Jered Weaver: 5.2IP, 6H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 5SO, 0HR - W
Justin Speier: 1.0IP, 2H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 1SO, 0HR - H
Scot Shields: 1.1IP, 0H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 0SO, 0HR - H
Francisco Rodriguez: 1.0IP, 0H, 0R, 0ER, 1BB, 3SO, 0HR - SV

Jon Garland: 7.0IP, 5H, 3R, 3ER, 1BB, 0SO, 1HR - L

Angels get the shutout! Only one walk allowed by the entire staff for this one. On both sides. This one was a real display of control. Weaver gets that first win recorded while K-Rod gets save number 7.

Sunday, April 29: Johan Santana (3-2)(MIN) vs. Mike Maroth (2-0)(DET)

Santana pitching on a Sunday afternoon. It doesn't get any better than that.(Win Probability Graphing by Fangraphs)

Johan Santana: 6.0IP, 3H, 3R, 3ER, 3BB, 6SO, 2HR - ND
Jesse Crain: 1.0IP, 2H, 1R, 1ER, 0BB, 1SO, 1HR - L

Matt Maroth: 6.2IP, 9H, 3R, 3ER, 1BB, 3SO, 1HR - ND
Todd Jones: 1.0IP, 0H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 0SO, 0HR - W

The walk off homer from Brandon Inge made the Detroit closer the winning pitcher in this contest. Santana gave up 2 long balls and walked 3 in 6 innings. That's a little unusual for the normally dominant Santana.

Monday, April 30: Brandon Webb (1-1)(ARI) vs. Randy Wolf (3-2)(LAD)

Randy Wolf has exceeded expectations thus far for the Dodgers. And he goes up against a guy who hit the ceiling of expectation last year with that NL Cy Young Award. This should be a low scoring game.

Wily Mo Pena - Grand Slammer

I made it out to Camden Yards for the first time this evening. Adam Loewen came out strong in the top of the first - striking out the first three batters he faced with a fastball in the low-to-mid 90s. After that inning, though, he seemed to lose his command and velocity and walked 5 batters - equal to the total number of strikeouts he recorded in 6 innings of work. He threw a lot of pitches in that time. Josh Beckett was much more efficient as he went 8 innings before Chris Ray blew the save opportunity with a grand slam off the bat of Wily Mo Pena to put the win right into Beckett's lap. Jonathan Papelbon picked up the save and he was impressive. Pena's hit had an amazing high arc as it sailed out to center field.

Watching Brian Roberts steal third base off of Beckett in the third inning was a lot of fun to see.

The energy of the crowd at Camden Yard was surprising. Red Sox fans clearly outnumbered the home team fans and they erupted in a big way for that grand slam. It has clearly been too long since Baltimore fielded a winning team.

3 picks: Still Watching the Dice-K

Wednesday, April 25: Jake Peavy (3-0)(SD) vs. Brandon Webb (1-1)(ARI)

Peavy's off to a good start this year and he gets to take on the reigning NL Cy Young Award winner in this one.(Win Probability graphing by Fangraphs)
That is what a walk-off home run by the home team looks like on a win probability graph. Dramatic.
Jake Peavy: 7.0IP, 2H, 0R, 0ER, 3BB, 16SO, 0HR - ND
Scott Linebrink: 1.0IP, 1H, 1R, 1ER, 0BB, 2SO, 1HR - H
Trevor Hoffman: 0.2IP, 1H, 2R, 2ER, 1BB, 0SO, 1HR - BS, L

Brandon Webb: 8.0IP, 6H, 2R, 2ER, 1BB, 6SO, 1HR - ND
Tony Pena: 1.0IP, 1H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 1SO, 0HR - W

Peavy gets a no-decision on 7 innings of shutout baseball with 16 strikeouts! That's a tough break. But a great game for the fans.

Thursday, April 26: Nate Robertson (2-0)(DET) vs. Jose Contreras (1-2)(CHW)

Robertson is as consistent as they come in that Detroit rotation. And Contreras has the odd flash of his brilliance every now and then. This is a good match up.

PPD. Too much rain in Chicago for this one. Though I did make out to see the O's play this evening.

Friday, April 27: Daisuke Matsuzaka (2-2)(BOS) vs. Jeff Karstens (0-1)(NYY)

Karstens drew the short straw and gets to oppose the gyro-ballin' Dice-K. There's an undeniable pleasure to watching the Yankees struggle. I don't know how long they'll be on this slide. They have a way of turning things around.(Win Probability Graphing by Fangraphs)

Daisuke Matsuzaka: 6.0IP, 5H, 4R, 4ER, 4BB, 7SO, 0HR - W
Mike Timlin: 1.0IP, 1H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 1SO, 0HR - H
Hideki Okajima: 1.0IP, 1H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 1SO, 0HR - H

Andy Pettitte: 4.2IP, 6H, 5R, 5ER, 5BB, 5SO, 1HR - L

In the end the Yankees turned to Andy Pettitte to face the Dice Dice Baby. This year's Red Sox/Yankees rivalry is tale of two totally different starting rotations. And the Dice-K story is going to be a focal point for some time.

3 Picks: 3 from the Junior Circuit

Sunday, April 22: Chase Wright (1-0)(NYY) vs. Daisuke Matsuzaka (1-2)(BOS)
Just a couple of "rookie" pitchers playing in the storied rivalry between the Yankees and Red Sox. As if anything that transpires between these teams could be called "just." D-Mat mania goes up a notch for this outing. Watch for gyro-balls.(Win Probability Graphing by Fangraphs)

Chase Wright: 3.0IP, 5H, 4R, 4ER, 3BB, 3SO, 4HR - ND
Andy Pettitte: 1.0IP, 0H, 0R, 0ER, 1BB, 0SO, 0HR - H
Scott Proctor: 0.0IP, 3H, 3R, 3ER, 0BB, 0SO, 1HR - BS, L

Daisuke Matsuzaka: 7.0IP, 8H, 6R, 6ER, 1BB, 7SO, 1HR - W
Hideki Okajima: 0.1IP, 1H, 0R, 0ER, 1BB, 0SO, 0HR - H
Brendan Donnelly: 0.2IP, 0H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 0SO, 0HR - H
Jonathan Papelbon: 1.0IP, 0H, 0R, 0ER, 1BB, 1SO, 0HR - SV

Crazy, crazy game. Andy Pettitte gets a hold in relief - unusual for a starter. And that burns his arm a bit for his next start for a rotation already hobbled. D-Mat gets a win despite giving up the 6 earned runs. This one was all offense.

Monday, April 23: Cha Seung Baek (0-0)(SEA) vs. Kevin Millwood (2-2)(TEX)
Baek gets the call to fill in for the King as Felix Hernandez spends some time recovering from his injuries. Baek quietly put up some good numbers as a starter late last year and shows a lot of promise. Millwood flirts with being the staff ace. If that's possible to do in the hitting paradise that is Arlington, Texas.(Win Probability Graphing by Fangraphs)
Cha Seung Baek: 4.1IP, 8H, 4R, 4ER, 2BB, 1SO, 1HR - ND
Brandon Morrow: 3.1IP, 1H, 0R, 0ER, 2BB, 2SO, 0HR - W
JJ Putz: 1.1IP, 0H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 0SO, 0HR - SV

Kevin Millwood: 6.0IP, 10H, 5R, 5ER, 2BB, 5SO, 0HR - L

10 hits allowed in just six innings pitched? That's asking for trouble in that small Texas ballpark.

Tuesday, April 24: Chien-Ming Wang (0-0)(NYY) vs. Scott Kazmir (1-1)(TB)
Wang gets his first start coming off the disabled list and comes up against the only pitcher to beat Johan Santana in Minnesota in over a year: Scott Kazmir.(Win Probability Graphing by Fangraphs)

Chien-Ming Wang: 6.1IP, 9H, 4R, 4ER, 0BB, 3SO, 0HR - L
Luis Vizcaino: 0.1IP, 0H, 1R, 1ER, 1BB, 0SO, 0HR - H
Mike Myers: 0.0IP, 1H, 1R, 1ER, 0BB, 0SO, 1HR - BS

Scott Kazmir: 6.2IP, 5H, 3R, 1ER, 2BB, 5SO, 1HR - ND
Juan Salas: 0.1IP, 0H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 0HR - W
Shawn Camp: 1.0IP, 1H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 1SO, 0HR - H
Al Reyes: 1.0IP, 0H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 2SO, 0HR - SV

It must be nice to pick up a win on just one-third of an inning of work. Tough break for Kazmir though. I doubt Wang will put together another 19-win season this year.

3 picks: The Return of Bart

Thursday, April 19: Jamie Moyer (1-1)(PHI) vs. John Patterson (0-2)(WAS)
Moyer gets the start in what could be the only interesting match up in Washington this year.
(Win Probability graphing by Fangraphs)
Jamie Moyer: 8.0IP, 4H, 2R, 2ER, 4BB, 5SO, 0HR - W
Tom Gordon: 1.0IP, 1H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 1SO, 0HR - SV

John Patterson: 4.0IP, 7H, 3R, 3ER, 4BB, 1SO, 1HR - L

Way to go Jamie Moyer!

Friday, April 20: AJ Burnett (1-1)(TOR) vs. Daniel Cabrera (1-1)(BAL)
Cabrera is off to a nice start this year. For my roto-fantasy team I wish I could say the same for AJ Burnett. He's had his quota of poor starts this year and needs a quality start.(Win Probability graphing by Fangraphs)

AJ Burnett: 7.0IP, 3H, 2R, 2ER, 5BB, 2SO, 1HR - ND
Shaun Marcum: 0.1IP, 2H, 2R, 2ER, 0BB, 1SO, 0HR - H
Casey Janssen: 0.2IP, 1H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 0SO, 0HR - BS
Victor Zambrano: 0.1IP, 2H, 1R, 1ER, 2BB, 0SO, 0HR - L

Daniel Cabrera: 6.2IP, 8H, 4R, 4ER, 2BB, 7SO, 0HR - ND
Chris Ray: 1.0IP, 2H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 1SO, 0HR - W

The Toronto bullpen lost this one despite a good outing from Burnett. The loss of closer BJ Ryan is putting a real strain on the relief corps and it cost them.

Saturday, April 21: Horacio Ramirez (1-0)(SEA) vs. Bartolo Colon (0-0)(LAA)
Bart's back! The Angels will need him back in fine form to reverse the nasty skid they're on.(Win Probability graphing by Fangraphs)
Horacio Ramirez: 4.0IP, 7H, 6R, 6ER, 6BB, 1SO, 1HR - L
(Wow! That's a terrible line! Look at all those walks in just 4 innings! Seattle traded Rafael Soriano for this?)

Bartolo Colon: 7.0IP, 7H, 1R, 1ER, 0BB, 1SO, 0HR - W
(Nice! Where's the strikeouts, Bart? Good start. The skid's on Seattle now.)
Francisco Rodriguez: 1.0IP, 0H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 2SO, 0HR - SV

Brett Myers Moved to the Bullpen??????

Simply stated: worst move ever.

Wasn't this guy the opening day starter? I had the Phillies picked to go all the way this year... but they're imploding fast. This has gone from a slow start to a serious meltdown. You don't demote your #1 starter in April no matter how bad things are when you get out of the gate. It's officially panic time in Philly.

I'm now looking at a roto-league roster with just 3 starters and 8 relievers (and a disastrous team ERA of 6.10).

3 Picks: Jered Weaver Returns, More D-Mat and Harang Takes on Oswalt

Monday, April 16: Jered Weaver (0-0)(LAA) vs. Julian Tavarez (0-1)(BOS)
Set your alarm clocks for this one as Patriot's Day pushes the start time to 10:05am in Boston. Jered Weaver comes off the DL to make his first start of the season in this one.(Win Probability graph by Fangraphs)
Ervin Santana: 4.0IP, 7H, 7R, 5ER, 3BB, 4SO, 1HR - L

Josh Beckett: 6.0IP, 6H, 1R, 1ER, 1BB, 5SO, 1HR - W

All the rain delays pushed Jered Weaver's first start of the season off for at least another day. Josh Beckett was also give the ball over Tavarez for Patriot's Day. Ervin Santana was roughed up early in this one.

Tuesday, April 17: Daisuke Matsuzaka (1-1)(BOS) vs. Gustavo Chacin (1-0)(TOR)
D-Mat seems well worth the hype. And so far he's been squaring off against some of my personal favorite starting pitchers. Chacin is a hard-throwing lefty who should have a real breakout year in his near future.(Win Probability graph by Fangraphs)
Daisuke Matsuzaka: 6.0IP, 3H, 2R, 2ER, 3BB, 10SO, 0HR - L

Gustavo Chacin: 6.2IP, 6H, 1R, 1ER, 0BB, 3SO, 1HR - W
Casey Janssen: 1.0IP, 1H, 0R, 0ER, 1BB, 0SO, 0HR - H
Jason Frasor: 1.1IP, 0H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 0SO, 0HR - SV

10 strikeouts and a loss? Nice start by D-Mat. He's had a couple of rough breaks given how well he's pitched. Nice job by Chacin - no walks issued by the Toronto starter. And that made all the difference.

Wednesday, April 18: Roy Oswalt (2-0)(HOU) vs. Aaron Harang (2-0)(CIN)
Oswalt has been facing off against the high-strikeout pitchers (his last start was against Brett Myers) - and winning ballgames. I'll be pulling for Harang to keep the Houston bats quiet in this one.(Win Probability graph by Fangraphs)
Chris Sampson: 7.0IP, 5H, 2R, 2ER, 2SO, 2HR - W

Aaron Harang: 6.0IP, 3H, 1R, 1ER, 2BB, 8SO, 0HR - ND
Victor Santos: 1.0IP, 0H, 0R, 0ER, 1SO, 0HR - H
Todd Coffey: 0.2IP, 1H, 3R, 3ER, 1BB, 1SO, 0HR - BS, L

No Roy Oswalt in this one. Chris Sampson picks up the win despite just the 2 strikeouts in 7 innings pitched. Harang gets no decision despite pitching well.

3 Picks: 3 from the Senior Circuit

Friday, April 13: Roy Oswalt (1-0)(HOU) vs. Brett Myers (0-1)(PHI)
Oswalt will probably be in the running for the NL Cy Young this year. And Myers is a steady source of strikeouts for fantasy players. This is a good match up.(Win Probability graphing by Fangraphs)
Roy Oswalt: 5.0IP, 7H, 6R, 6ER, 6BB, 6SO, 0HR - W
Brad Lidge: 1.0IP, 1H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 1SO - H
Rick White: 1.0IP, 1H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 0SO, 0HR - H
Trever Miller: 0.1IP, 2H, 0R, 0ER, 1BB, 0SO, 0HR - H
Chad Qualls: 0.2IP, 0H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 0SO, 0HR - H
Dan Wheeler: 1.0IP, 0H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 3SO, 0HR - S

Brett Myers: 3.1IP, 7H, 7R, 5ER, 4BB, 2SO - L

Saturday, April 14: Jason Jennings (0-1)(HOU) vs. Cole Hamels (0-0)(PHI)
Jennings brings his sinker-ball out to the city of brotherly love. It amazes me that anyone can rely on just one pitch and still have a career as a starter. Cole Hamels gets the call to oppose him as he looks to avoid the sophomore jinx.
(Win Probability graphing by Fangraphs)
Woody Williams: 5.1IP, 8H, 6R, 5ER, 3BB, 4SO, 2HR - L

Cole Hamels: 6.0IP, 8H, 5R, 5ER, 0BB, 3SO, 1HR - W
Francisco Rosario: 1.0IP, 0H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 1SO, 0HR - H
Antonio Alfonseca: 1.0IP, 1H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 0SO, 0HR - H
Tom Gordon: 1.0IP, 0H, 0R, 0ER, 2BB, 0SO, 0HR - SV

No Jennings in this one after all. Go Phils!

Sunday, April 15: Chris Young (1-0)(SD) vs. Jason Schmidt (1-1)(LAD)
This is a good meeting between two of the best of the NL West. A division strangely rich with good starting pitchers this year.(Win Probability graphing by Fangraphs)
Chris Young: 2.0IP, 7H, 5R, 4ER, 5BB, 2SO, 0HR - L

Randy Wolf: 6.0IP, 6H, 3R, 3ER, 1BB, 7SO, 1HR - W
Joe Beimel: 1.0IP, 0H, 0R, 0ER, 1BB, 0SO, 0HR - H
Jonathan Broxton: 1.0IP, 0H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 2SO, 0HR - H

Wolf got the start over Schmidt in this one.

Fantasy: Week 1 Head-to-Head Results

With week 1 of the 2007 season in the books it's time to recap how my head-to-head teams fared this week. The summary is: not well.

Orix Blue Wave
(Head-to-Head, 12-teams, MLB.com hosted league)
Result: loss. (0-1-0)
Point tally: 108.5 to 140.5

The MLB.com version of fantasy baseball is vastly simplified by using entire team pitching staffs for a roster spot as opposed to managing individual pitchers. Managing pitchers is part of the fun of fantasy baseball. But limiting managers to team staffs does bring back a team element that is missing in other fantasy formats. But ultimately, I'm not fond of this approach.

You also lock in your roster before each week starts - eliminating day-to-day management. And in my case, eliminating a lot of third-base stats from Adrian Beltre due to all the Seattle-Cleveland postponed games. Not that he could have overcome a 38 point deficit.

Two things beat the Orix Blue Wave. (1) A bad week for pitching from the Philadelphia Phillies. This was not a good week to pick their staff. Freddy Garcia is injured and the relief pitching was just awful (I'm looking at you and your blown saves, Tom Gordon). Jamie Moyer brought in the only victory of the week. (2) Hanley Ramirez. Last season's NL Rookie of the Year put up numbers for my opponent that nearly single-handedly did me in. He went 8/25, 8 runs scored, 1 home run, 2RBI and 3 stolen bases last week. That's just amazing.

Leather, Runs & Repeat
(Head-to-Head, 10-teams, ESPN.com hosted league)
Result: tie. (0-0-1)
Point tally: 4-4-2. On a 5x5 stat sheet we were deadlocked. I led in runs scored, batting average, strikeouts and wins. I trailed in home runs, saves, ERA and WHIP. I tied for RBIs and stolen bases.

The team of "geriatrics and invalids" held their own this week. Though my pitching continued to be terrible across the board for all fantasy teams.

ESPN had technical problems and glitches all over the place this week. But I give them credit for being open and active about their issues and communicating their efforts to fix things. And I do enjoy the many mis-spellings on their fantasy page today (or should I say fatnasy?).

Gyro Ballerz
(Head-to-Head, 8-teams, FoxSports.com hosted league)
Result: loss. (0-1-0)
Point tally: 215.3 to 156.7

Fox has a nice interface for fantasy baseball. Though I wish there was a better way to differentiate between daily and cumulative point tallies for individual players.

Despite a strong week from Carlos Beltran, I was beat across the board in this one. My opponent had the highest point total in the league for the week and would have beat anyone.

3-picks: 3 on the Eastern Seaboard

Tuesday April, 10: Nate Robertson (DET)(1-0) vs. Jaret Wright (BAL)(0-1)
With the home opener the night before out of the way it's time to see if Wright will give the O's the kind of starting pitching they desperately need. They may have won 2-of-3 against the Yankees this past weekend. But the defending AL Champions don't have the starting pitching woes the bombers have and - in my opinion - Robertson is the most steady part of the Tigers' rotation.(Win Probability graphing by Fangraphs)
Nate Robertson: 7.1IP, 4H, 0R, 0ER, 1BB, 5SO, 0HR - W
Joel Zumaya: 0.2IP, 1H, 1R, 1ER, 0BB, 1SO, 1HR - H
Todd Jones: 1.0IP, 0H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 0SO, 0HR - S

Jaret Wright: 5.0IP, 4H, 2R, 1ER, 1BB, 5SO, 0HR - L

Wednesday April 11: Miguel Batista (SEA)(0-1) vs. Daisuke Matsuzaka (BOS)(1-0)
D-Mat makes his home debut in this one and Batista would seem to be in over his head in this one. Perhaps the Mariners will have a few gyro balls bouncing off the green monster yet.(Win Probability graphing by Fangraphs)
"King" Felix Hernandez got the call to start this one! What a fantastic game! A 1-hit complete game shutout from the 20-year-old phenom! Long live the king! Only 4K's from Dice-K? Wow!

Felix Hernandez: 9.0IP, 1H, 0R, 0ER, 2BB, 6SO, 0HR - W

Daisuke Matsuzaka: 7.0IP, 8H, 3R, 3ER, 1BB, 4SO, 0HR - L

Thursday April 12: Jamie Moyer (PHI)(1-0) vs. Tom Glavine (NYM)(1-1)
Two left-handed veterans who know how to win ballgames go head-to-head in this one. Moyer's an all time favorite of mine and these are the two clubs that will be fighting each other off for the NL East division title this year.(Win Probability graphing by Fangraphs)
Jamie Moyer: 6.0IP, 7H, 4R, 3ER, 2BB, 6SO, 0HR - L

Tom Glavine: 6.0IP, 4H, 3R, 3ER, 3BB, 4SO, 2HR - W
Joe Smith: 1.0IP, 1H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 1SO, 0HR - H
Scott Schoeneweis: 1.0IP, 0H, 0R, 0ER, 1BB, 0SO, 0HR - H
Billy Wagner: 1.0IP, 1H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 0SO, 0HR - SV

3-picks: Second Try at the Igawa Debut

April 7: Steve Trachsel (0-0)(BAL) vs. Kei Igawa (0-0)(NYY) The April 4 rain delay pushed Igawa's first start in the majors by a day. Today should be the day to see what this lefty brings.
(Win Probability graphing by Fangraphs)
Steve Trachsel: 6.2IP, 4H, 3R, 3ER, 2BB, 3SO, 1HR - ND
Jamie Walker: 0.2IP, 0H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 1SO, 0HR - H
Chris Ray: 0.2IP, 2H, 4R, 4ER, 1BB, 1SO, 1HR - BS, L

Kei Igawa: 5.0IP, 8H, 7R, 7ER, 3BB, 2SO, 2HR - ND
Mariano Rivera: 1.0IP, 1H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 1SO, 0HR - W

April 8: Roy Halladay (0-0)(TOR) vs. Scott Kazmir (0-0)(TB) Two of the best aces in the AL East opposing each other in this one.(Win Probability graphing by Fangraphs)
Roy Halladay: 7.0IP, 7H, 3R, 3ER, 3BB, 7SO, 1HR - W
Casey Janssen: 2.0IP, 0H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 1SO, 0HR - S

Scott Kazmir: 7.0IP, 7H, 4R, 4ER, 2BB, 10SO, 2HR - L

April 9: Jeff Francis (0-0)(COL) vs. Jason Schmidt (1-0)(LAD) Schmidt has proven to be a fine addition to my fantasy team (Gyro Ballerz) so far this year. And his heater is only supposed to get better as the season goes along. And Francis gets to bring his game to a pitcher's park after that tough game at home against Arizona.(Win Probability graphing by Fangraphs)
Jason Schmidt: 4.0IP, 7H, 4R, 3ER, 0BB, 6SO, 1HR - L

Jeff Francis: 6.2IP, 5H, 2R, 2ER, 3BB, 6SO, 1HR - W
Ramon Ramirez: 0.1IP, 0H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 1SO, 0HR - H
Manny Corpas: 1.0IP, 0H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 0SO, 0HR - H

Fantasy: Big Shifts for the Oriole Blue Wave

Oriole Blue Wave
(6x6 Rotisserie, Yahoo leagues, 17 teams)
Currently tied for 4th with 123 points - 29.5 points behind the leader.

After hitting at least one RBI in every game to start the season - and flashing a healthy big of home run power - I traded Vladimir Guerrero while his value was extremely high.

Trade: Vladimir Guerrero (LAA, OF) for Ryan Howard (PHI, 1B) and Luke Scott (HOU, OF).

Howard is off to a slow start. He's hitting just .214 with just 2 runs scored and no RBIs. But last year's NL MVP (with those 58 homers) can only heat up. While Guerrero (the AL MVP of 2004) can only cool down. Luke Scott is a bit of a gamble, but my out field bench is deep enough to take a chance on him. Howard was #2 on my list going into the draft.

With a newly acquired elite first baseman there was no reason to hold on to Casey Kotchman (LAA, 1B) - who hit well as a backup option - or Lyle Overbay (TOR, 1B) - who is a steady, .300+ hitter.

Overbay is an excellent backup at first, but I opted to open up his roster spot to deal with my weak shortstop position. I had been playing Maicer Izturis (LAA, SS, 3B). He hits well, delivering some runs, RBIs and the odd stolen base. But he typically hits 9th in that lineup and is unlikely to deliver any power from that position. And I don't know if he'll be an every-day player when Chone Figgins returns from the DL. If there's anything I learned from fantasy baseball last year it is that home runs make all the difference in all offensive stats. So I plucked Kahlil Greene (SD, SS) from the free agency pool. He's probably good for at least 15 home runs and may be looking at a breakout year.

Anyone looking to add speed to their fantasy team should take a look at Chris Duffy (PIT, OF). I expect his average to improve this year and he should pick up a nice pile of stolen bases.

Anyone looking for saves should monitor this closer site. The pitchers first and second in line are the guys to grab when somebody goes down to injury or blows too many save opportunities.

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Oriole Blue Wave lineup going into Saturday, April 7

C - Mike Piazza (OAK) @ LAA
1B - Ryan Howard (PHI) @ FLA
2B - Chris Burke (HOU) v. STL
3B - Edwin Encarnacion (CIN) v. PIT
SS - Maicer Izturis (LAA) v. OAK
OF - Jeff Francouer (ATL) v. NYM
OF - Alex Rios (TOR) @ TB
OF - Luke Scott (HOU) v. STL
U - Chris Duffy (PIT) @ CIN

SP - Brandon Webb (ARI) @ WAS
SP - Brett Myers (PHI) @ FLA
RP - Mariano Rivera (NYY) v. BAL
RP - Al Reyes (TB) v. TOR
RP - Salomon Torres (PIT) @ CIN
RP - Luis Vizcaino (NYY) v. BAL
RP - David Riske (KC) v. BOS

3-picks: Three American League Games - 2 Japanese Pitching Debuts

Wednesday April 4: AJ Burnett (0-0)(TOR) vs. Nate Robertson (0-0)(DET) This is a good match up as Burnett looks to be the #2 starter Toronto was looking for last year before the injuries sidelines him and Nate Robertson was the most underrated of Detroit's outstanding rotation on their pennant run.(Win Probability Graphing by Fangraphs)
AJ Burnett: 2.0IP, 5H, 6R, 6ER, 4BB, 2SO, 0HR - L
Nate Robertson: 5.2IP, 7H, 2R, 2ER, 2BB, 4SO, 1HR - W
Todd Jones: 1.0IP, 1H, 0R, 0ER, 1BB, 0SO, 0HR - S

Thursday April 5: Daisuke Matsuzaka (0-0)(BOS) vs. Zack Greinke (0-0)(KC) There's plenty of hype around D-Mat's major league debut and his mysterious gyro ball. But I'm also equally intrigued with Zack Greinke's return after missing most of last year to get his head together. Greinke has enormous potential and he's my #1 sleeper candidate for starting pitchers in fantasy baseball this year.(Win Probability Graphing by Fangraphs)
Daisuke Matsuzaka: 7.0IP, 6H, 1R, 1ER, 1BB, 10SO, 1HR - W
Jonathan Papelbon: 1.0IP, 0H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 2SO, 0HR - SV
Zack Greinke: 7.0IP, 8H, 2R, 1ER, 1BB, 7SO, 0HR - L


Friday April 6: Adam Loewen (0-0)(BAL) vs. Kei Igawa (0-0)(NYY) Igawa didn't draw all the hype (and big bucks) of D-Mat's Boston saga. Both of these pitchers have a lot riding on their shoulders as they come in with big expectations for their respective teams. And oddly, both of these rivals have a lot of uncertainty about the quality of their rotations this year.(Win Probability Graphing by Fangraphs)

Adam Loewen: 5.0IP, 5H, 2R, 2ER, 3BB, 2SO, 0HR - W
Chad Bradford: 0.1IP, 2H, 1R, 0ER, 0BB, 1SO, 0HR - H
Jamie Walker: 0.2IP, 1H, 0R, 0ER, 1BB, 1SO, 0HR - H
Danys Baez: 1.0IP, 0H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 0SO, 0HR - H
Chris Ray: 1.0IP, 0H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 0SO, 0HR - S

Mike Mussina: 4.0IP, 8H, 6R, 6ER, 3BB, 4SO, 0HR - L

2007 Forcasting

The first pitch of the new season is about two hours away. It's time to make some predictions for October. A lot of folks talk about "win shares" and some impressive stat manipulation for making their predictions. I just go with raw gut and intuition. And for what it's worth - that led me to predict the Cardinals would win the world series last January 2006.

Regular Season Standings:
AL Central:
1 Minnesota Twins
2 Detroit Tigers
3 Chicago White Sox
4 Cleveland Indians
5 Kansas City Royals

The AL Central should be a tight race with KC ending up at dead last the only easy call. Go Twins!

AL East:
1 New York Yankees
2 Toronto Blue Jays * wild card
3 Boston Red Sox
4 Baltimore Orioles
5 Tampa Bay Devil Rays

The Yankees will overcome their current starting pitching woes and the Red Sox won't be up for the full marathon for a repeat of 2006's results.

AL West:
1 Los Angeles Angels
2 Oakland Athletics
3 Seattle Mariners
4 Texas Rangers

Please finish ahead of the Rangers, Seattle. It's all I can hope for at this point.

NL Central:
1 Houston Astros
2 St. Louis Cardinals
3 Chicago Cubs
4 Milwaukee Brewers
5 Cincinnati Reds
6 Pittsburgh Pirates

The addition of Carlos Lee and Jason Jennings will give the Astros the lift they need to clear the division title.

NL East:
1 Philadelphia Phillies
2 New York Mets * wild card
3 Atlanta Braves
4 Florida Marlins
5 Washington Nationals

The Nationals will plumb new depths this year as they stink it up all season long.

NL West:
1 Arizona Diamondbacks
2 Los Angeles Dodgers
3 San Francisco Giants
4 San Diego Padres
5 Colorado Rockies

This one is the hardest one to call. It's really anybody's race.

Postseason:
ALDS: Blue Jays defeat the Twins / Angels defeat the Yankees
ALCS: Blue Jays defeat the Angels
NLDS: Phillies defeat the Diamondbacks / Mets defeat the Astros
NLCS: Phillies defeat the Mets
World Series: Phillies defeat the Blue Jays - a rematch of the 1993 world series.

Actual results will most definitely vary.

3 Picks: It's Here

It seems like only a couple of weeks ago that I was driving past Busch Stadium on my cross-country relocation to the AL East. Now it's the sight of the first game of the regular season as the Mets swing into St. Louis.

Three pitching match ups that look promising over the next three days:

Sunday, April 1 in St. Louis: Tom Glavine (0-0) (NYM) vs. Chris Carpenter (0-0) (STL).(Win Probability Graphing by Fangraphs)
Tom Glavine: 6.0IP, 6H, 1R, 1ER, 1BB, 2SO, 0HR - W
Chris Carpenter: 6.0IP, 9H, 5R, 5ER, 1BB, 3SO, 0HR - L

Monday, April 2 in Philadelphia: John Smoltz (0-0) (ATL) vs. Brett Myers (0-0) (PHI). With all the aces out on the mound for most teams' first game of the season, this is the one that I would watch as I pull for the Phillies this year.(Win Probability Graphing by Fangraphs)
John Smoltz: 6.0IP, 8H, 3R, 3ER, 1BB, 7SO, 1HR - no decision
Bob Wickman: 1.0IP, 1H, 0R, 0ER, 1BB, 1SO, 0HR - W
Chad Paronto: 1.0IP, 0H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 1SO, 0HR - S

Brett Myers: 7.2IP, 4H, 3R, 3ER, 2BB, 9SO, 2HR - no decision
Ryan Madson: 1.0IP, 1H, 2R, 2ER, 1BB, 1SO, 1HR - L

Tuesday, April 3 in San Francisco: Jake Peavy (0-0) (SD) vs. Barry Zito (0-0) (SF). I think Zito will have little problem transitioning to the National League. This will be the first indication of what kind of return the Giants will get on their substantial investment. Peavy is also well worth keeping an eye on.(Win Probability Graphing by Fangraphs)
Jake Peavy: 6.0IP, 3H, 0R, 0ER, 2BB, 6SO, 0HR - W
Barry Zito: 5.0IP, 4H, 3R, 2ER, 2BB, 2SO, 0HR - L