Pythagorean Win % Projections - AL Central

Let's have a look at the Pythagorean Win% Projections for the toughest division in the major leagues: the AL Central. Like last year, I think winning just 90 games won't be good enough for even a wild card. And it seems likely that the wild card will come from this division.

Here's the current standings and projected final record based on current rate of wins:

	AL Central - Projections as of July 11, 2007
	projected final record based on win%
1	Detroit Tigers	.605	98 - 64
2	Cleveland Indians	.591	96 - 66
3	Minnesota Twins	.511	83 - 79
4	Chicago White Sox	.453	73 - 89
5	Kansas City Royals	.432	70 - 92

And the Pythagorean projection:

	AL Central - Projections as of July 11, 2007
	projected final record based on Pythagorean Win%
1	Detroit Tigers	.603	98 - 64
2	Cleveland Indians	.559	91 - 71
3	Minnesota Twins	.540	87 - 75
4	Kansas City Royals	.462	75 - 87
5	Chicago White Sox	.422	68 - 94

There's no change at the top of the division in this model. The Tigers - and their amazing offense - has them projected to continue at their current pace. The only surprise is at the bottom where this formula predicts the White Sox sinking below even the lowly Royals. That would definitely be the end of Ozzie Guillen if that happens.