3 picks: Bet on the AL in the All Star Game

Saturday, July 7: Felix Hernandez (4-4)(SEA) vs. Rich Harden (1-1)(OAK)

King Felix was on his way to pitching like a baseball deity at the start of this season. Then he went on the DL and hasn't regained whatever mojo he picked up in spring training. The Mariners have had better luck with Oakland this year - but honestly, they were so bad against the A's last year there was nowhere to go but up - and even have the green and gold in the rear view mirror as they've pushed Oakland down to third place thus far. Rich Harden - like Hernandez - is another starting pitcher I expected to do better than he has. Both these guys throw hard.

Mariners 4, Athletics 0(Win Probability graphing by Fangraphs)
Mariners player of the game: (SP) Felix Hernandez - WPA +.328
8.0IP, 2H, 0R, 0ER, 2BB, 2SO, 0HR
Mariners lowest contributor: (DH) Jose Vidro - WPA -.068
1/5, 1R, 0HR, 0RBI, 0BB, 0SO

Athletics player of the game: (RP) Lenny DiNardo - WPA +.103
6.1IP, 3H, 0R, 0ER, 2BB, 5SO, 0HR
Athletics lowest contibutor: (SP) Rich Harden - WPA -.255
2.2IP, 5H, 4R, 4ER, 3BB, 1SO, 1HR

Felix Hernandez: 8.0IP, 2H, 0R, 0ER, 2BB, 2SO, 0HR - W

Rich Harden: 2.2IP, 5H, 4R, 4ER, 3BB, 1SO, 1HR - L

A shutout from the King! Nice work. Only 2 strikeouts from Felix - but he gets 8 innings of work. It looks like the young King has learned to work more efficiently. Lenny DiNardo records the only positive WPA value on the entire Athletics team as he pitches long relief for the no decision.

Apparently the fine folks at USS Mariner are responsible for King Felix's success tonight. Check this out! Blogs can make this a better game. This old Mariners fan thanks USS Mariner for giving the King some pointers.

Sunday, July 8: Daisuke Matsuzaka (10-5)(BOS) vs. Nate Robertson (4-6)(DET)

Dice-K gets one more start in before the break. 10-5 is pretty good for a "rookie."

Red Sox 5, Tigers 6

(Win Probability Graphing by Fangraphs)
Red Sox player of the game: (SS) Julio Lugo - WPA +.275
3/3, 2R, 1HR, 2RBI, 1BB, 0SO
Red Sox lowest contributor: (SP) Daisuke Matsuzaka - WPA -.401
5.0IP, 10H, 6R, 6ER, 1BB, 4SO, 3HR - L

Tigers player of the game: (DH) Gary Sheffield - WPA +.196
3/4, 2R, 1HR, 2RBI, 0BB, 0SO
Tigers lowest contributor: (SP) Nate Robertson - WPA -.083
6.1IP, 4H, 4R, 4ER, 4BB, 2SO, 2HR - W

Daisuke Matsuzaka: 5.0IP, 10H, 6R, 6ER, 1BB, 4SO, 3HR - L

Nate Robertson: 6.1IP, 4H, 4R, 4ER, 4BB, 2SO, 2HR - W
Jose Capellan: 1.1IP, 1H, 1R, 0ER, 1BB, 2SO, 0HR - H
Zach Miner: 0.1IP, 0H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 1SO, 0HR - H
Todd Jones: 1.0IP, 2H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 1SO, 0HR - SV

The last games before the break typically yield strange outcomes. Dice-K allowing 3 home runs is a strange outcome. Dice-K allowing 6 earned runs is odd. Nate Robertson walking twice as many batters as he strikes out, allowing 2 home runs and coming away with a win is weird. This is why I'm tempted to bench my entire fantasy team in the days leading up to the all-star game.

Tuesday, July 10: All-Star Game. American League vs. National League @ San Francisco

Let's go American League! The All-Star Game is a fine tradition and I even don't mind "making it count" with the World Series home field advantage tied to the outcome. But I could live without the home run derby. The presentation is always terrible. The last thing I want to do is hear 50 consecutive home run calls from the broadcasters. Even just three rounds of "back... back... back... back..." is enough to make me nauseous. And the competition structure is so contrived and just not baseball. Unless somebody can come up with an equivalent event to showcase pitching we should seriously consider retiring this empty display of undisciplined swinging. Skip the spectacle and just play the game!

American League 5, National League 4

(Win Probability graphing by Fangraphs)
American League player of the game: Ichiro Suzuki (SEA) - WPA +.293
3/3, 1R, 1HR, 2RBI, 0BB, 0SO
American League lowest contributor: Vladimir Guerrero (LAA) - WPA -.097
0/3, 0R, 0HR, 0RBI, 0BB, 0SO

National League player of the game: Jose Reyes (NYM) - WPA +.108
3/4, 1R, 0HR, 0RBI, 0BB, 0SO
National League lowest contributor: Aaron Rowand (PHI) - WPA -.317
0/2, 0R, 0HR, 0RBI, 0BB, 1SO

Dan Haren: 2.0IP, 2H, 1R, 1ER, 1BB, 2SO, 0HR - ND
Josh Beckett: 2.0IP, 1H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 2SO, 0HR - W
CC Sabathia: 1.0IP, 1H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 0SO, 0HR - H
Justin Verlander: 1.0IP, 2H, 1R, 1ER, 0BB, 0SO, 0HR - H
Johan Santana: 1.0IP, 0H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 2SO, 0HR - H
Jonathan Papelbon: 1.0IP, 1H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 2SO, 0HR - H
JJ Putz: 0.2IP, 2H, 2R, 2ER, 1BB, 1SO, 1HR - H
Francisco Rodriguez: 0.1IP, 0H, 0R, 0ER, 2BB, 0SO, 0HR - SV

Jake Peavy: 1.0IP, 1H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 0SO, 0HR - ND
Brad Penny: 1.0IP, 0H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 0SO, 0HR - H
Ben Sheets: 1.0IP, 2H 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 0SO, 0HR - H
Cole Hamels: 1.0IP, 2H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 0SO, 0HR - H
Chris Young: 1.0IP, 1H, 2R, 2ER, 1BB, 0SO, 1HR - L

The American League takes another All-Star exhibition. It must be nice to Johan Santana on hand to pitch an inning for a hold. He's an All-Star's All-Star. And on a day when Ichiro was all over the news wire with contract rumors he comes through with an inside-the-park 2-run home run to earn the MVP distinction. I couldn't agree more.