Thursday, July 12: Andy Pettitte (4-6)(NYY) vs. James Shields (7-4)(TB)
The riveting stories of the decline of Andy Pettitte and the ascension of James Shields dovetail in this match up as the pitcher of the Yankees once great past faces off against the Devil Rays future ace. Well, Shields is pitching like the staff ace already this year. Tampa Bay's strategy of stacking the farm teams with hot prospects will eventually even out the playing field against the deep pockets of New York. And we might get a taste of that in this game.
Yankees 7, Devil Rays 3
(Win Probability graphing by Fangraphs)Yankees player of the game: (RF) Bobby Abreu - WPA +.220
3/4, 1R, 1HR, 3RBI, 0BB, 0SO
Yankees lowest contributor: (2B) Robinson Cano - WPA -.070
0/4, 0R, 0HR, 0RBI, 0BB, 1SO
Devil Rays player of the game: (CF) Delmon Young - WPA +.088
2/4, 0R, 0HR, 0RBI, 0BB, 0SO
Devil Rays lowest contributor: (SP) James Shields - WPA -.332
6.0IP, 9H, 6R, 5ER, 1BB, 2SO, 3HR
Luis Vizcaino: 1.1IP, 0H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 2SO - H
James Shields: 6.0IP, 9H, 6R, 5ER, 1BB, 2SO, 3HR - L
This was not James Shields' night. He does have that awful Devil Rays defense working behind him and that awful Devil Rays offense not putting up the run support for him. And he pitches in one of the ugliest modern ballparks ever constructed. But when you give up 3 home runs in the fourth inning the way he did you have to tip your hat to the Yankee's offense and look at bad pitch selection as a culprit.
Friday, July 13: Jeff Francis (8-5)(COL) vs. Ben Sheets (10-4)(MIL)
Jeff Francis and his tantalizing slow pitches square off against the first-place Brewers. Either the Brew Crew is actually good this year or the NL Central is so bad that even Milwaukee can rise to the top. I'm leaning toward the former as all their plum draft picks are starting to pay dividends with Prince Fielder flashing his power swing and Ryan Braun making the case for Rookie of the Year honors.
Rockies 10, Brewers 6
(Win Probability graphing by Fangraphs)Rockies player of the game: (SS) Troy Tulowitzki - WPA +.276
2/4 2R, 1HR, 2RBI, 1BB, 1SO
Rockies lowest contributor: (2B) Jamey Carroll - WPA -.049
1/4, 1R, 0HR, 0RBI, 0BB, 0SO
Brewers player of the game: (3B) Ryan Braun - WPA +.361
2/4, 2R, 2HR, 4RBI, 1BB, 1SO
Brewers lowest contributor: (SP) Chris Capuano - WPA -.458
3.0IP, 6H, 5R, 5ER, 3BB, 3SO, 0HR
Chris Capuano: 3.0IP, 6H, 5R, 5ER, 3BB, 3SO, 0HR - ND
Carlos Villanueva: 3.0IP, 3H, 5R, 5ER, 3SO, 3HR - L
The Brewers shuffled their starting rotation for the second half and slotted Chris Capuano to go up against Jeff Francis instead of Ben Sheets. Francis was extremely lucky to pick up a win despite allowing 6 earned runs and 3 home runs - all while pitching the minimum 5 innings to pick up that decision. Capuano, on the other hand, didn't last long enough to pick up a win and was fortunate not to be tagged with the loss.
Saturday, July 14: Dustin McGowan (5-4)(TOR) vs. Daisuke Matsuzaka (10-6)(BOS)
Injuries have been particularly cruel to Toronto's starting rotation. But it has cleared the way for Dustin McGowan to makes some impressive starts. This time out he gets to contend with the Green Monster and the Dice-K mania.
Blue Jays 4, Red Sox 9
3/4, 1R, 1HR, 2RBI, 0BB, 1SO
Blue Jays lowest contributor: (RP) Jason Frasor - WPA -.444
1.0IP, 1H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 0SO, 0HR
Red Sox player of the game: (C) Jason Varitek - WPA +.193
1/4, 1R, 1HR, 2RBI, 0BB, 2SO
Red Sox lowest contributor: (SP) Daisuke Matsuzaka - WPA -.100
6.0IP, 9H, 4R, 4ER, 2BB, 2SO, 2HR
Blue Jays lowest contributor: (RP) Jason Frasor - WPA -.444
1.0IP, 1H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 0SO, 0HR
Red Sox player of the game: (C) Jason Varitek - WPA +.193
1/4, 1R, 1HR, 2RBI, 0BB, 2SO
Red Sox lowest contributor: (SP) Daisuke Matsuzaka - WPA -.100
6.0IP, 9H, 4R, 4ER, 2BB, 2SO, 2HR
Dustin McGowan: 5.0IP, 8H, 6R, 6ER, 2BB, 4SO, 3HR - L
Daisuke Matsuzaka: 6.0IP, 9H, 4R, 4ER, 2BB, 2SO, 2HR - W
Here's a perfect example where the new WPA stat collides head-on with more traditional baseball stats as Dice-K earns a win even as his effort toward the victory shows a net loss as Win Points Added. Equally interesting, for the losing Toronto Blue Jays, the bulk of the Win Points lost is placed on Jason Frasor even though he didn't allow any runs to score. This raises some questions about the way pitching WPA is calculated.
Daisuke Matsuzaka: 6.0IP, 9H, 4R, 4ER, 2BB, 2SO, 2HR - W
Here's a perfect example where the new WPA stat collides head-on with more traditional baseball stats as Dice-K earns a win even as his effort toward the victory shows a net loss as Win Points Added. Equally interesting, for the losing Toronto Blue Jays, the bulk of the Win Points lost is placed on Jason Frasor even though he didn't allow any runs to score. This raises some questions about the way pitching WPA is calculated.
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