Sunday, July 29, 2007

3 Picks: All Hail King Felix


Monday, July 30: Cole Hamels (11-5)(PHI) vs. Ted Lilly (11-4)(CHC)

Two of the NL's 11-game winning starters go head to head in this one. I haven't tuned into enough Cubs games this year. And that's a shame as they're in a better position to make a run at the postseason than the Phillies are at this point.
Phillies 4, Cubs 1
(Win Probability graphing by Fangraphs)
Phillies player of the game: (SP) Cole Hamels - WPA +.351
8.0IP, 3H, 1R, 1ER, 2BB, 8SO, 1HR
Phillies lowest contributor: (RF) Shane Victorino - WPA -.080
0/3, 0R, 0HR, 0RBI, 0BB, 1SO

Cubs player of the game: (SS) Ryan Theriot - WPA +.097
2/4, 1R, 1HR, 1RBI, 0BB, 0SO
Cubs lowest contributor: (SP) Ted Lilly
5.0IP, 7H, 4R, 4ER, 3BB, 3SO, 2HR

Cole Hamels: 8.0IP, 3H, 1R, 1ER, 2BB, 8SO, 1HR - W
Brett Myers: 1.0IP, 0H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 1SO, 0HR - SV

Ted Lilly: 5.0IP, 7H, 4R, 4ER, 3BB, 3SO, 2HR - L

Outstanding pitching by Cole Hamels in a game that was satisfying to watch. The injuries to Shane Victorino and Michael Bourn were alarming. On the positive side, latest trade acquisition Tadahito Iguchi is filling in much better than expected for the injured Chase Utley. So much so that I've added him to my fantasy roster and moved Ryan Theriot over to short stop.

Tuesday, July 31: Erik Bedard (10-4)(BAL) vs. Josh Beckett (13-4)(BOS)

It's the major league strikeout leader taking on one of the front runners of the AL Cy Young Award.
Orioles 5, Red Sox 3
(Win Probability graphing by Fangraphs)
Orioles player of the game: (SP) Erik Bedard - WPA +.190
6.0IP, 2H, 2R, 2ER, 5BB, 6SO, 1HR
Orioles lowest contributor: (RF) Nick Markakis - WPA -.109
0/3, 0R, 0HR, 0RBI, 1BB, 2SO

Red Sox player of the game: (DH) David Ortiz - WPA +.237
3/4, 2R, 2HR, 3RBI, 0BB, 0SO
Red Sox lowest contributor: (SS) Julio Lugo - WPA -.309
0/5, 0R, 0HR, 0RBI, 0BB, 2SO

Erik Bedard: 6.0IP, 2H, 2R, 2ER, 5BB, 6SO, 1HR - W
Rob Bell: 1.0IP, 1H, 1R, 1ER, 0BB, 2SO, 1HR - H
Chad Bradford: 1.1IP, 1H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 0SO, 0HR - H
Jamie Walker: 0.2IP, 0H, 0R, 0ER, 1BB, 0SO, 0HR - SV

Josh Beckett: 8.0IP, 9H, 5R, 5ER, 2BB, 6SO, 1HR - L

The Win Points Added may peg Nick Markakis as the "lowest contributor" in this game offensively. But defensively he made one of the more impressive catches I've ever seen as he fell into the stands and managed to be the one to come away with a cleanly caught ball despite all the Red Sox fans trying to catch that same ball. And he was even physically below most of the outstretched hands.

Wednesday, August 1: Jered Weaver (7-5)(LAA) vs. Felix Hernandez (7-6)(SEA)

Unlike past seasons, the Mariners could conceivably catch the Angels in the division standings by the end of September. And it's starters like King Felix that make something that was once improbable into a compelling reason to tune in as he matches up against the Angels' own young phenom starting pitcher in the form of Jered Weaver. Which makes for a better match up than if the M's pitted brother against brother with Jeff Weaver inexplicably in that M's rotation.
Angels 7, Mariners 8 (12)
(Win Probability graphing by Fangraphs)
Angels player of the game: (CF) Gary Matthews Jr. - WPA +.371
2/4, 1R, 1HR, 2RBI, 1BB, 1SO
Angels lowest contributor: (RP) Justin Speier - WPA -.352
0.1IP, 3H, 1R, 1ER, 0BB, 1SO, 0HR

Mariners player of the game: (RP) Brandon Morrow - WPA +.305
1.1IP, 1H, 0R, 0ER, 1BB, 2SO, 0HR
Mariners lowest contributor: (Util) Willie Bloomquist - WPA -.167
0/0, 0R, 0HR, 0RBI, 0BB, 0SO

Jered Weaver: 6.0IP, 12H, 6R, 6ER, 1BB, 1SO, 0HR - ND
Justin Speier: 0.1IP, 3H, 1R, 1ER, 0BB, 1SO, 0HR - L

Felix Hernandez: 8.0IP, 6H, 4R, 4ER, 0BB, 7SO, 1HR - ND
JJ Putz: 1.0IP, 4H, 3R, 3ER, 0BB, 0SO, 1HR - BS
Eric O'Flaherty: 0.1IP, 0H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 0SO, 0HR - W

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