The Four Keys to Winning Your Fantasy Baseball League

Few diversions appeal to the twin demons of obsession and competitiveness like fantasy baseball. After a solid yet fascinating smack-down in my first year of play I've managed to crack the code of schooling one's friends and enemies around the league. Here are the four keys to bragging rights:

1. Draft wisely

Pick the best available player. Every time. Every round. Don't worry about filling empty positions. You can always trade for a catcher if you're sitting on five top-shelf first basemen. How you draft will be the difference between working the waiver wire to defend your lead versus working the waiver wire for a miracle.

2. Pitchers are fragile things

Last year, my second round pick was Chris Carpenter. The 2005 NL Cy Young Award winner had just one start that went 6 innings with a 7.50 ERA and hasn't pitched a game since while he recovers from Tommy John elbow surgery. Very few starting pitchers (or relievers) merit a high draft pick. Judging from the number of quality pitchers still on the waiver wire it's tempting to not draft pitchers at all. Johan Santana, Jake Peavy and Brandon Webb are the elite few worthy of a draft pick. And you do need to draft a closer or two to avoid getting frozen out of the saves category. But it's also possible to pick up great pitching all through the year if one pays attention to the unexpected success stories that shape up every season. Chances are you will have a pitcher sitting in your DL slot more often than not given the way injuries plague hurlers.

Last year I drafted Brett Myers and was initially horrified as the opening day starter was converted into the team's closer. But he had value in that role and it looks as though history may repeat itself with John Smoltz - who I drafted in a late round this year - as he looks to return as the Braves' closer for the second time in his illustrious career.

3. Let the rest of the league load up on "home town" favorites

There's always at least one of these guys in every league. It's not enough to be a part of Red Sox Nation - they also want half of the roster on their fantasy team. Or they'll load up on Yankee pitching (a dubious call this season), Cubs batting or make a trade to complete their collection of Dodgers. While these are great teams, they compete in the real world against 29 other teams loaded with talent. In fantasy, you want to build a team with the best available from all 30 teams as that will beat any real world team every time. The guys who load up on their "favorites" tend to lose to players with better strategy. This is particularly true when it comes to grabbing elite, but almost "unknown" talent from small-market teams. Carl Crawford and James Shields would be super stars if they weren't Tampa Bay Rays. Kansas City starter Brian Bannister was my early sleeper pick this year. Who knew that Arizona Diamondbacks third baseman Mark Reynolds would get off to such an explosive start this year?

4. Nothing makes your team slump faster than talking trash

My head-to-head team, The Therimaniacs, is undefeated so far. They rule. They're the greatest team ever. The other guys in my league aren't even a challenge. Having said all that, I can fully expect the bats to grow cold and the pitching staff to blow a gazillion save opportunities while posting an ERA just one run over infinity.

Therimaniacs (40-19-6) after the draft:
C - Ronny Paulino (PIT)
1B - Albert Pujols (STL)
2B - Placido Polanco (DET)
3B - Garrett Atkins (COL)
SS - Carlos Guillen (DET)
OF - Ichiro Suzuki (SEA)
OF - Carlos Lee (HOU)
OF - Brad Hawpe (COL)
Util - Derrek Lee (CHC)
BN - Michael Young (SS, TEX)
BN - Nick Swisher (1B, OF, CHW)
BN - Todd Helton (1B, COL)
BN - Edgar Renteria (SS, DET)
BN - Raul Ibanez (OF, SEA)
BN - Mike Napoli (C, LAA)

SP - John Smoltz (ATL)
SP - Rich Hill (CHC)
SP - Dontrelle Willis (DET)
RP - Rafael Soriano (ATL)
RP - Todd Jones (DET)
RP - Rafael Betancourt (CLE)

Therimaniacs (40-19-6) as of today:
C - Mike Napoli (LAA)
1B - Albert Pujols (STL)
2B - Placido Polanco (DET)
3B - Garrett Atkins (COL)
SS - Erick Aybar (LAA)
OF - Ichiro Suzuki (SEA)
OF - Carlos Lee (HOU)
OF - Raul Ibanez (SEA)
Util - Derrek Lee (CHC)
BN - Carlos Guillen (1B, 3B, SS, DET)
BN - Jose Lopez (2B, SEA)
BN - Michael Young (SS, TEX)
BN - Evan Longoria (3B, TB)

SP - Cliff Lee (CLE)
SP - Micah Owings (ARI)
SP - Scott Olsen (FLA)
RP - C.J. Wilson (TEX)
RP - Brandon Lyon (ARI)
RP - Kerry Wood (CHC)
RP - Todd Jones (DET)
BN - Joba Chamberlain (RP, NYY)
DL - John Smoltz (SP, ATL)

Zach is Back

(Win Probability Graphing by Fangraphs)

Baseball is about overcoming adversity. In Kansas City tonight Zach Greinke returned to the form that the Royals had hoped to build a team around a couple of seasons ago and shut out the Yankees. Aside from beating the Bronx Bombers - an endearing trait in my book - he has battled back from a social anxiety disorder that nearly derailed his career. So far in this young season, the Royals have been the best team in the American League. Nobody saw that coming. Welcome back, Zach.

Doug Davis and Adversity

(Win Probability Graphing by Fangraphs)

Baseball may be a game about dealing with adversity. Then there's the story behind Doug Davis' gutsy start against the Dodgers this past Tuesday just two days before undergoing surgery for thyroid cancer. Impressive outing, even more impressive character. Get well Doug Davis. Get healthy. We all look forward to your recovery.

Seattle Mariners @ Baltimore Orioles - April 6, 2008

(Win Probability Graphing by Fangraphs)

The Seattle Mariners snatched defeat from the jaws of victory as their puzzling inability to take advantage of shaky starting pitching from Jeremy Guthrie (his command was all over the place) combined with a JJ Putz-less bullpen wasted an impressive 8-innings of shutout baseball by King Felix.

Felix Hernandez: 8.0 IP, 5H, 0 R, 0ER, 2 BB, 6 SO, 0HR 0.00ERA - No Decision. King Felix mixed in a lot of off speed pitches in the early frames before featuring his wicked fastball more prominently later on. He was particularly good at pitching his way out of trouble and the defense working behind him turned some outstanding double-plays.


The win practically fell into the lap of Orioles reliever Dennis Sarfate: 1.0 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 1 SO, 0HR 0.00ERA. He was featuring a fastball in the high-90s with exceptional location.


Temperature at game time: 52 degrees with drizzle. Paid attendance: 19,215.

M's Concerns: the Back End of the Rotation and the Lineup

(Win Probability Graphing by Fangraphs)

Miguel Batista is a number 5 starter, and probably an above average number 5 in the big leagues. He certainly looked much sharper than the Orioles' Adam Loewen. Up until he lost his command in the fifth inning and started issuing walks. Nine base on balls issued by the Seattle pitching staff versus just three free passes from Loewen (who clearly didn't have his best stuff today) made all the difference in this game. Not to mention the 4! errors committed by the Mariners in this one. As far as "back of the rotation" starters go, Batista is the great unknown. We've seen the effective sinker ball from Carlos Silva and we cringe when Washburn gets a road start. I hope we see a more consistent Batista as the season wears on.

Why is Richie Sexson batting cleanup? He did not look comfortable in the batter's box in this one as he took some ugly hacks at pitches way out of the strike zone. His .205 batting average with just 63 RBI's last season looks more like a decline than an off-year at this point. The M's need more production than that from the number four slot.

On the other hand, Mike Morse has an impressive canon. His ability to gun down Brian Roberts at the plate on the heels of Shawn Green's errant pickoff throw into center field was most impressive. I hope we see a lot more of him (and a lot less of Willie Bloomquist).

Opening Day for the Mariners - So Far So Good

(Win Probability graphing by fangraphs)

A no decision by Erik Bedard, but he certainly kept the M's in the game. Having Jose Lopez bat second looks like a good idea from this vantage point. I hope RA Dickey gets the call sooner rather than later.

Bringing the Knuckleball to Seattle

I have a particular fondness for pitchers who build their career on odd pitches. Bring a good eephus or gyro-ball to the plate and I'll be hanging on every pitch. Go against the grain with lots of change-ups and pristine location on off speed offerings (a la Jamie Moyer) and I'll be your biggest fan. Feed hitters a steady diet of sinkers without getting burned and I'm fascinated. The knuckleball is one of those novelties that draws me in.

One day, when I was working on a baseball video game as my day job, Angels broadcaster Steve Physioc was in the booth recording a couple dozen generic introductions for knuckleball pitchers. It was near the end of a long day of recording and Physioc commented that "these sure are a lot of lines just for Time Wakefield." There are never many knuckleball pitchers in the majors, but those who master that off speed wonder pitch with all of its unpredictable movement in and around the strike zone can pitch their way well into the twilight years of a big league career.

You can count on just two hairy knuckles the number of pitchers in the majors who feature this dancing pitch and this year one of them is pitching for my team. I can't help but wish RA Dickey great success this year. He could be an important part of a good run for the 2008 M's. Mike Bauman has a nice profile piece about him. I hope Kenji Johjima is up for the unusual challenge of catching this crazy pitch.

2008 Forcasting

There's already two games in the books, this Sunday will make it three. Then there will be the other 2,427 games scheduled after that. It's a good time for the dubious task of predicting the future.

American League Central

1 - Detroit Tigers
2 - Cleveland Indians (wild card)
3 - Minnesota Twins
4 - Chicago White Sox
5 - Kansas City Royals

This has to be a good year to be a Tigers fan. I think Dontrelle Willis bolsters an already outstanding pitching staff and the change of scenery (not to mention run support) could bring out the D-Train of 2003 and 2005 when he was an elite pitcher. Offensively, the addition of Miguel Cabrera makes this an intimidating lineup. Cleveland will make a good run, but that one-two punch of pitching and offense heavily favors Detroit going into this campaign.

American League East

1 - Boston Red Sox
2 - New York Yankees
3 - Toronto Blue Jays
4 - Tampa Bay Rays
5 - Baltimore Orioles

I'd pick the Orioles to finish lower, but there's only 5 teams in this division. The Rays will have a good surge at some point this year, putting together good outings from Shields and Kazmir along with explosive run support. But I just don't see them sustaining anything that threatens the Boston-New York hegemony.

American League West

1 - Seattle Mariners
2 - Los Angeles Angels
3 - Texas Rangers
4 - Oakland Athletics

Go Mariners. This year, I'm believing.

ALDS
Detroit Tigers defeat Seattle Mariners
Boston Red Sox defeat Cleveland Indians

(Apparently, my believing doesn't extend into post-season predictions.)

ALCS
Detroit Tigers defeat Boston Red Sox

National League Central

1 - Chicago Cubs
2 - Milwaukee Brewers
3 - Cincinnati Reds
4 - St. Louis Cardinals
5 - Houston Astros
6 - Pittsburgh Pirates

This is a weak division. It's not hard to envision the Cubs defending their division title here.

National League East

1 - New York Mets
2 - Philadelphia Phillies (wild card)
3 - Atlanta Braves
4 - Washington Nationals
5 - Florida Marlins

The 1-2 punch of Johan Santana and Pedro Martinez tips this one squarely in favor of New York. Though the Phillies will probably score enough runs to be serious contenders. The Fish will easily sink to the bottom of this division no matter how bad the pitching is in DC.

National League West

1 - Arizona Diamondbacks
2 - San Diego Padres
3 - Colorado Rockies
4 - Los Angeles Dodgers
5 - San Francisco Giants

The D-Backs pitching will be the big story this year. The Rockies' Cinderella story from last year will get a little.... rocky this time around.

NLDS
New York Mets defeat the Arizona Diamondbacks
Philadelphia Phillies defeat the Chicago Cubs

NLCS
Philadelphia Phillies defeat the New York Mets

World Series
Detroit Tigers defeat the Philadelphia Phillies

I picked the Phillies last year and was completely wrong. I picked the Cardinals the year before that and got it right. On that track record I'd say the Tigers have a 50% chance of winning it all this year.

More on that Seattle Rotation

The consistently insightful David Pinto confirms my optimism for the Mariner's starting rotation. I'm even entertaining thoughts of Jarrod Washburn having a career year. His best year came in 2002 with the Angels. He was fourth in the Cy Young voting that year with a 3.15 ERA on a team that won the championship. His two seasons with Seattle haven't been anything close to that. But that last spring training start does seem promising.

Even if the thought of Carlos Silva allowing many, many balls in play raises doubts, just remember the pitching friendly dimensions of Safeco Field, one JJ Putz in the bullpen and no Jeff Weaver on the roster this year.

That's One in the Books: Boston 1-0, Oakland 0-1

(Win Probability graphing from Fangraphs)

What a way to start the season! Lots of drama for the fans in Tokyo, a good dose of Dice-K (who looked terrible in the first inning, but improved from there), Hideki Okajima, extra innings, a blown save from Huston Street and a shaky save from Jonathan Papelbon.

The best story coming out of this is the ninth inning heroics of Brandon Moss - a late addition to the lineup to fill in for an ailing JD Drew - tying everything up with a solo shot. I'm skeptical of Drew's perpetual "ailing" status. He has a lot of natural talent, but has he ever logged in more than 140 - 145 games in a single season? Usually less. It's nice to see Moss step it up in his stead.

The other blast from a relative unknown was the two run shot by Jack Hannahan. That was an impressive cut and a taste of the surprises in store with this year's young Oakland staff.

Dice-K on Day One

Tuesday, March 25, 2008
Daisuke Matsuzaka (0-0)(BOS) vs. Joe Blanton (0-0)(OAK)

It seems fitting that the starting pitcher that became an obsession over the 2007 season would get the nod in the first official game of the 2008 campaign - as a defending world champion no less. He clearly wore down over the long season last year. And he had an ERA you could tune orchestras to (4.40, as in A 440 Hz), which is not overly impressive. But there's that mystique of the fabled "gyro ball." And when he's on his game, he can be a lot of fun to watch in action.
Matsuzaka's 2008 projection: 4.01 ERA/1.280 WHIP/200.0 IP/16-10

Blanton, on the other hand, is a better pitcher than most people realize. I don't know if he's "opening day" ace material. But his 2007 ERA was 3.95 and with that 1.217 WHIP he was effective at keeping the bases clear. And he does get to throw the first official pitch of the year.

The A's starting rotation is interesting - if somewhat less than what we've seen in Oakland in past years:
Joe Blanton - 2008 projection: 4.14 ERA/1.315 WHIP/213.0 IP/15-11
Rich Harden - 2008 projection: 3.26 ERA/1.174 WHIP/69.0 IP/5-2
Chad Gaudin - 2008 projection: 4.14 ERA/1.460 WHIP/150.0 IP/8-11
Justin Duchscherer (reprising his starting role) - 2008 projection: 3.12 ERA/1.163 WHIP/49.0 IP/4-3
Lenny DiNardo - 2008 projection: 4.36 ERA/1.495 WHIP/99.0 IP/5-7

If those projections hold out, the A's will be looking for spot starters and hurlers capable of eating innings. But the prospect - and the gamble - of a healthy Rich Hardin has to be tantalizing.

What is this Feeling? Optimism?

With a new season just days off there's more than the usual post-spring training optimism surrounding this year's Mariners organization. After a tantalizing late-season run (followed by an even later-season collapse) there's something about this year's starting rotation that gives this M's fan hope that they can hold their own in the American League West. They'll need to keep the Angels off the board (something sorely lacking in today's pre-season exchange). But it's been a while since the Mariners have gone into a season with expectations beyond an over-.500 record.

(1) Erik Bedard
The M's actually made a big trade to pull in this 2007 Cy Young candidate (5th in overall voting) and acquired an ace.
Projected: 3.48 ERA/1.222 WHIP/207.0 IP/15-8

(2) Felix Hernandez
The young phenom is still the King. And still destined to put together brilliant outings with experience.
Projected: 3.54 ERA/1.214 WHIP/206.0 IP/15-8

(3) Jarrod Washburn
Projected: 4.52 ERA/1.386 WHIP/189.0 IP/9-14

(4) Carlos Silva
Projected: 4.57 ERA/1.378 WHIP/193.0 IP/10-13

(5) Miguel Batista
Projected: 4.52 ERA/1.533 WHIP/197.0IP/12-12

There's not a lot on the back end of that rotation to scare too many teams. But bring a small lead into the late innings and the Mariners have an elite closer on hand to convert the victory.

Closer: J.J. Putz
Projected: 1.88 ERA/0.875 WHIP/72.0 IP/39 SV

Also in the wings, in the bullpen, and on hand for spot starts is a knuckle-baller who bears keeping an eye on: R.A. Dickey. He has struggled in the past few seasons. But the more pitching friendly Safeco Field could be just the place to put that behind him. It's hard not to root for someone attempting to build a career on that knuckler.

3 Picks: Veterans and Rookies... and go Phillies!

Wednesday, September 26: Johan Santana (15-13)(MIN) vs. Jair Jurrjens (3-1)(DET)

Thursday, September 27: John Smoltz (14-7)(ATL) vs. Kyle Kendrick (9-4)(PHI)

Friday, September 28: Kevin Slowey (4-0)(MIN) vs. Daisuke Matsuzaka (14-12)(BOS)

3 Picks: $18 Million Only Buys 9 Wins for the Giants

Sunday, September 23: Jeff Francis (16-8)(COL) vs. Greg Maddux (13-10)(SD)

Monday, September 24: Chris Young (9-7)(SD) vs. Barry Zito (9-13)(SF)

Tuesday, September 25: Chuck James (11-10)(ATL) vs. Jamie Moyer (13-11)(PHI)

3 Picks: Yep, Boomer Pitches for the Dodgers Now...

Thursday, September 20: Jon Garland (9-2)(CHW) vs. Zack Greinke (6-6)(KC)

Friday, September 21: Josh Beckett (19-6)(BOS) vs. Scott Kazmir (13-8)(TB)

Saturday, September 22: David Wells (8-8)(LAD) vs. Brandon Webb (16-10)(ARI)

3 Picks: Division Battles in September

Monday, September 17: Kenny Rogers (3-2)(DET) vs. Paul Byrd (15-6)(CLE)

Tuesday, September 18: Chad Billingsley (11-4)(LAD) vs. Jeff Francis (15-8)(COL)

Wednesday, September 19: Daisuke Matsuzaka (14-12)(BOS) vs. Jesse Litsch (5-9)(TOR)

3 Picks: Yankees @ Red Sox.... of course

Friday, September 14: Andy Pettitte (13-8)(NYY) vs. Daisuke Matsuzaka (14-2)(BOS)

Yankees 8, Red Sox 7

(Win Probability graphing by Fangraphs)
Yankees player of the game: (RF) Bobby Abreu - WPA +.360
1/4, 1R, 0HR, 2RBI, 1BB, 1SO
Yankees lowest contributor: (SP) Andy Pettitte - WPA -.265
4.0IP, 9H, 5R, 4ER, 2BB, 5SO, 0HR

Red Sox player of the game: (RF) J.D. Drew - WPA +.207
2/5, 0R, 0HR, 1RBI, 0BB, 2SO
Red Sox lowest contributor: (RP) Jonathan Papelbon - WPA -.437
1.0IP, 3H, 2R, 2ER, 0BB, 2SO, 0HR

Andy Pettitte: 4.0IP, 9H, 5R, 4ER, 2BB, 5SO, 0HR - ND
Brian Bruney: 1.1IP, 0H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 1SO, 0HR - W
Luis Vizcaino: 1.0IP, 0H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 1SO, 0HR - H
Mariano Rivera: 1.0IP, 1H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 2SO, 0HR - SV

Daisuke Matsuzaka: 5.2IP, 4H, 2R, 2ER, 5BB, 7SO, 0HR - ND
Mike Timlin: 0.1IP, 1H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 1SO, 0HR - H
Jonathan Papelbon: 1.0IP, 3H, 2R, 2ER, 0BB, 2SO, 0HR - BS, L

Nooooooooooooooooo!

Saturday, September 15: Chien-Ming Wang (18-6)(NYY) vs. Josh Beckett (18-6)(BOS)

Yankees 1, Red Sox 10

(Win Probability graphing by Fangraphs)
Yankees player of the game: (SS) Derek Jeter - WPA +.039
2/4, 1R, 1HR, 1RBI, 0BB, 0SO
Yankees lowest contributor: (SP) Chien-Ming Wang - WPA -.165
5.2IP, 9H, 5R, 5ER, 3BB, 3SO, 0HR

Red Sox player of the game: (SP) Josh Beckett - WPA +.311
7.0IP, 3H, 1R, 1ER, 2BB, 7SO, 1HR
Red Sox lowest contributor: (C) Jason Varitek - WPA -.185
0/5, 0R, 0HR, 0RBI, 0BB, 2SO

Chien-Ming Wang: 5.2IP, 9H, 5R, 5ER, 3BB, 3SO, 0HR - L

Josh Beckett: 7.0IP, 3H, 1R, 1ER, 2BB, 7SO, 1HR - W

That's more like it! Rubber match below.

Sunday, September 16: Roger Clemens (6-6)(NYY) vs. Curt Schilling (8-7)(BOS)

3 Picks: Eyes on the National League

Tuesday, September 11: Jake Peavy (16-6)(SD) vs. Esteban Loaiza (2-0)(LAD)

Padres 9, Dodgers 4

(Win Probability graphing by Fangraphs)
Padres player of the game: (RF) Brian Giles - WPA +.163
2/4, 2R, 1HR, 2RBI, 1BB, 0SO
Padres lowest contributor: (RP) Kevin Cameron - WPA -.066
0.0IP, 3H, 1R, 1ER, 1BB, 0SO, 0HR

Dodgers player of the game: (2B) Jeff Kent - WPA +.110
3/5, 0R, 0HR, 1RBI, 0BB, 0SO
Dodgers lowest contributor: (SP) Esteban Loaiza - WPA -.335
3.1IP, 6H, 6R, 6ER, 4BB, 5SO, 3HR

Jake Peavy: 7.0IP, 5H, 2R, 2ER, 2BB, 5SO, 1HR - W

Esteban Loaiza: 3.1IP, 6H, 6R, 6ER, 4BB, 5SO, 3HR - L


Wednesday, September 12: John Smoltz (13-7)(ATL) vs. John Maine (14-9)(NYM)

Braves 3, Mets 4

(Win Probability graphing by Fangraphs)
Braves player of the game: (RF) Jeff Francoeur - WPA +.293
1/3, 0R, 0HR, 2RBI, 1BB, 1SO
Braves lowest contributor: (RP) Manuel Acosta - WPA -.221
1.0IP, 2H, 1R, 1ER, 0BB, 0SO, 0HR

Mets player of the game: (SP) John Maine - WPA +.247
6.0IP, 3H, 1R, 1ER, 3BB, 5SO, 0HR
Mets lowest contributor: (RP) Guillermo Mota - WPA -.194
0.1IP, 1H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 1SO, 0HR

John Smoltz: 6.0IP, 6H, 2R, 2ER, 2BB, 8SO, 1HR - ND
Manuel Acosta: 1.0IP, 2H, 1R, 1ER, 0BB, 0SO, 0HR - L

John Maine: 6.0IP, 3H, 1R, 1ER, 3BB, 5SO, 0HR - ND
Jorge Sosa: 1.0IP, 0H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 0SO, 0HR - H
Aaron Heilman: 0.2IP, 1H, 2R, 2ER, 1BB, 0SO, 0HR - H
Guillermo Mota: 0.1IP, 1H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 1SO, 0HR - BS, W
Billy Wagner: 1.0IP, 0H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 0SO, 0HR - SV


Thursday, September 13: Adam Wainwright (13-10)(STL) vs. Aaron Harang (14-4)(CIN)

Cardinals 5, Reds 5

(Win Probability graphing by Fangraphs)
Cardinals player of the game: (1B) Albert Pujols - WPA +.070
1/2, 1R, 0HR, 2RBI, 0BB, 0SO
Cardinals lowest contributor: (SP) Kip Wells WPA -.256
4.2IP, 10H, 5R, 5ER, 6BB, 2SO, 1HR

Reds player of the game: (1B) Joey Votto - WPA +.272
3/4, 1R, 0HR, 2RBI, 0BB, 0SO
Reds lowest contributor: (RF) Ken Griffey Jr. - WPA -.160
1/4, 0R, 0HR, 0RBI, 0BB, 0SO

Kip Wells: 4.2IP, 10H, 5R, 5ER, 6BB, 2SO, 1HR - L

Aaron Harang: 7.0IP, 3H, 3R, 3ER, 2BB, 5SO, 0HR - W
David Weathers: 1.0IP, 2H, 1R, 1ER, 0BB, 0SO, 0HR - SV

3 Picks: Eyes on the American League

Thursday, August 23: Jake Westbrook (4-7)(CLE) vs. Nate Robertson (7-10)(DET)

There's no way I would have anticipated losing records for both of these starters back in April. Two starters having off-years go at it in this one.

Indians 3, Tigers 1 (10)

(Win Probability graphing by Fangraphs)
Indians player of the game: (SP) Jake Westbrook - WPA +.563
8.0IP, 5H, 0R, 0ER, 2BB, 3SO, 0HR
Indians lowest contributor: (RF) Franklin Gutierrez - WPA -.320
0/4, 0R, 0HR, 0RBI, 0BB, 2SO

Tigers player of the game: (SP) Nate Robertson - WPA +.600
8.2IP, 4H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 3SO, 0HR
Tigers lowest contributor: (RP) Joel Zumaya - WPA -.358
1.0IP, 3H, 3R, 3ER, 2BB, 1SO, 0HR

Jake Westbrook: 8.0IP, 5H, 0R, 0ER, 2BB, 3SO, 0HR - ND
Rafael Perez: 0.1IP, 0H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 1SO, 0BB - W
Joe Borowski: 1.0IP, 3H, 1R, 1ER, 0BB, 0SO, 0HR - SV

Nate Robertson: 8.2IP, 4H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 3SO, 0HR - ND
Joel Zumaya: 1.0IP, 3H, 3R, 3ER, 2BB, 1SO, 0HR - L

A rough end to a well pitched game. This victory puts the Tribe 2 1/2 games over the Tigers in the division race. It figures that this would be the day I put Zumaya on the fantasy roster...

Friday, August 24: CC Sabathia (14-6)(CLE) vs. Zack Greinke (5-5)(KC)

Greinke returns as a starter in this one. Which is a good sign as there's plenty of reason to build the Royals' future around his talent.

Indians 1, Royals 2

(Win Probability graphing by Fangraphs)
Indians player of the game: (2B) Asdrubal Cabrera - WPA +.188
2/3, 0R, 0HR, 0RBI, 0BB, 0SO
Indians lowest contributor: (3B) Casey Blake - WPA -.189
0/4, 0R, 0HR, 0RBI, 0BB, 0SO

Royals player of the game: (RP) John Bale - WPA +.204
3.0IP, 2H, 0R 0ER, 0BB, 5SO, 0HR
Royals lowest contributor: (C) John Buck - WPA -.084
0/3, 0R, 0HR, 0RBI, 0BB, 0SO

CC Sabathia: 8.0IP, 5H, 2R, 2ER, 2BB, 6SO, 0HR - L

Zack Greinke: 3.0IP, 1H, 0R, 0ER, 1BB, 2SO, 0HR - ND
John Bale: 3.0IP, 2H, 0R 0ER, 0BB, 5SO, 0HR - W
Jimmy Gobble: 0.2IP, 0H, 1R, 1ER, 1BB, 0SO, 0HR - H
Joel Peralta: 0.1IP, 1H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 1SO, 0HR - H
David Riske: 1.0IP, 1H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 1SO, 0HR - H
Joakim Soria: 1.0IP, 1H, 0R, 0ER, 1BB, 0SO, 0HR - SV

Saturday, August 25: Chien-Ming Wang (14-6)(NYY) vs. Jeremy Bonderman (10-6)(DET)

Wang hasn't pitched well over his last three starts even though he's gone 1-1 over that span. And it was the Tigers that failed to capitalize on Wang's last start. We'll see if Bonderman can keep the cat bats in the game this time around.

Yankees 7, Tigers 2

(Win Probability graphing by Fangraphs)
Yankees player of the game: (SP) Chien-Ming Wang - WPA +.163
8.0IP, 5H, 2R, 1ER, 2BB, 6SO, 0HR
Yankees lowest contributor: (C) Jorge Posada - WPA -.117
0/5, 0R, 0HR, 0RBI, 0BB, 0SO

Tigers player of the game: (3B) Brandon Inge - WPA +.163
2/3, 1R, 0HR, 0RBI, 0BB, 0SO
Tigers lowest contributor: (SP) Jeremy Bonderman - WPA -.352
5.2IP, 8H, 7R, 7ER, 4BB, 0SO, 1HR

Chien-Ming Wang: 8.0IP, 5H, 2R, 1ER, 2BB, 6SO, 0HR - W

Jeremy Bonderman: 5.2IP, 8H, 7R, 7ER, 4BB, 0SO, 1HR - L

3-picks will be on hiatus for the next couple of weeks...

3 Picks: Red Sox at the Trop

Monday, August 20: Tim Wakefield (14-10)(BOS) vs. Scott Kazmir (9-7)(TB)

I find this match up of veteran knuckle-baller against the young flame-thrower compelling. Though I suspect the real story will be the Boston bats and how well they'll contrast compared to all the Devil Rays not named Carl Crawford.

Red Sox 6, Devil Rays 0

(Win Probability graphing by Fangraphs)
Red Sox player of the game: (3B) Mike Lowell - WPA +.207
2/2, 1R, 1HR, 3RBI, 2BB, 0SO
Red Sox lowest contributor: (LF) Bobby Kielty - WPA -.075
0/5, 1R, 0HR, 0RBI, 0BB, 1SO

Devil Rays player of the game: (3B) Akinori Iwamura - WPA +.016
0/3, 0R, 0HR, 0RBI, 1BB, 1SO
Devil Rays lowest contributor: (SP) Scott Kazmir - WPA -.305
5.2IP, 7H, 6R, 6ER, 4BB, 8SO, 1HR

Tim Wakefield: 7.0IP, 4H, 0R, 0ER, 1BB, 5SO, 0HR - W

Scott Kazmir: 5.2IP, 7H, 6R, 6ER, 4BB, 8SO, 1HR - L

The Rays were bedeviled by the knuckleball as Wakefield danced his way to victory. Or at least his knuckler did. Kazmir had the strikeouts. But the 6 earned runs were his undoing.

Tuesday, August 21: Chris Young (9-4)(SD) vs. John Maine (13-7)(NYM)

This one is an easy call. Two of the best NL starting pitchers working it at Shea.

Padres 6, Mets 7

(Win Probability graphing by Fangraphs)
Padres player of the game: (CF) Mike Cameron - WPA +.372
2/3, 2R, 1HR, 2RBI, 2BB, 0SO
Padres lowest contributor: (RP) Trevor Hoffman - WPA -.791
0.1IP, 4H, 2R, 2ER, 0BB, 0SO, 0HR

Mets player of the game: (CF) Carlos Beltran - WPA +.547
3/3, 1R, 1HR, 5RBI, 1BB, 0SO
Mets lowest contributor: (RP) Jorge Sosa - WPA -.353
0.1IP, 2H, 1R, 1ER, 0BB, 1SO, 0HR

Chris Young: 5.0IP, 5H, 4R, 4ER, 2BB, 5SO, 1HR - ND
Heath Bell: 1.0IP, 2H, 1R, 1ER, 1BB, 1SO, 0HR - BS
Trevor Hoffman: 0.1IP, 4H, 2R, 2ER, 0BB, 0SO, 0HR - BS, L

John Maine: 5.2IP, 6H, 3R, 3ER, 4BB, 4SO, 1HR - ND
Scott Schoeneweis: 1.0IP, 1H, 1R, 1ER, 0BB, 1SO, 0HR - H
Jorge Sosa: 0.1IP, 2H, 1R, 1ER, 0BB, 1SO, 0HR - BS
Billy Wagner: 1.0IP, 1H, 1R, 1ER, 1BB, 2SO, 0HR - W

You look at the bullpen performance in this game and there's reason for concern for both of these contenders. Three blown saves and the win is credited to a closer despite a shaky outing. This does not bode well for the final push down the stretch for either of these teams.

Wednesday, August 22: Daisuke Matsuzaka (13-9)(BOS) vs. Edwin Jackson (3-12)(TB)

I'm in this one more for the Dice-K saga than the Edwin Jackson record of pain. But I'm sure that 3-12 record looks worse than it is given the team he's pitching for.

Red Sox 1, Devil Rays 2

(Win Probability graphing by Fangraphs)
Red Sox player of the game: (DH) David Ortiz - WPA +.215
2/2, 0R, 0HR, 0RBI, 3BB, 0SO
Red Sox lowest contributor: (C) Jason Varitek - WPA -.338
0.5, 0R, 0HR, 0RBI, 0BB, 2SO

Devil Rays player of the game: (SP) Edwin Jackson - WPA +.217
6.0IP, 5H, 1R, 1ER, 5BB, 3SO, 0HR
Devil Rays lowest contributor: (1B) Joel Guzman - WPA -.091
0/3, 0R, 0HR, 0RBI, 1BB, 2SO

Daisuke Matsuzaka: 6.0IP, 2H, 2R, 2ER, 4BB, 8SO, 1HR - L

Edwin Jackson: 6.0IP, 5H, 1R, 1ER, 5BB, 3SO, 0HR - W
Dan Wheeler: 1.0IP, 2H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 2SO, 0HR - H
Gary Glover: 1.0IP, 1H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 1SO, 0HR - H
Al Reyes: 1.0IP, 1H, 0R, 0ER, 1BB, 0SO, 0HR - SV

The Devil Rays only gave him 2 runs of support to work with, but that was enough for Edwin Jackson to overcome the Dice-K machine.