The Four Keys to Winning Your Fantasy Baseball League

Few diversions appeal to the twin demons of obsession and competitiveness like fantasy baseball. After a solid yet fascinating smack-down in my first year of play I've managed to crack the code of schooling one's friends and enemies around the league. Here are the four keys to bragging rights:

1. Draft wisely

Pick the best available player. Every time. Every round. Don't worry about filling empty positions. You can always trade for a catcher if you're sitting on five top-shelf first basemen. How you draft will be the difference between working the waiver wire to defend your lead versus working the waiver wire for a miracle.

2. Pitchers are fragile things

Last year, my second round pick was Chris Carpenter. The 2005 NL Cy Young Award winner had just one start that went 6 innings with a 7.50 ERA and hasn't pitched a game since while he recovers from Tommy John elbow surgery. Very few starting pitchers (or relievers) merit a high draft pick. Judging from the number of quality pitchers still on the waiver wire it's tempting to not draft pitchers at all. Johan Santana, Jake Peavy and Brandon Webb are the elite few worthy of a draft pick. And you do need to draft a closer or two to avoid getting frozen out of the saves category. But it's also possible to pick up great pitching all through the year if one pays attention to the unexpected success stories that shape up every season. Chances are you will have a pitcher sitting in your DL slot more often than not given the way injuries plague hurlers.

Last year I drafted Brett Myers and was initially horrified as the opening day starter was converted into the team's closer. But he had value in that role and it looks as though history may repeat itself with John Smoltz - who I drafted in a late round this year - as he looks to return as the Braves' closer for the second time in his illustrious career.

3. Let the rest of the league load up on "home town" favorites

There's always at least one of these guys in every league. It's not enough to be a part of Red Sox Nation - they also want half of the roster on their fantasy team. Or they'll load up on Yankee pitching (a dubious call this season), Cubs batting or make a trade to complete their collection of Dodgers. While these are great teams, they compete in the real world against 29 other teams loaded with talent. In fantasy, you want to build a team with the best available from all 30 teams as that will beat any real world team every time. The guys who load up on their "favorites" tend to lose to players with better strategy. This is particularly true when it comes to grabbing elite, but almost "unknown" talent from small-market teams. Carl Crawford and James Shields would be super stars if they weren't Tampa Bay Rays. Kansas City starter Brian Bannister was my early sleeper pick this year. Who knew that Arizona Diamondbacks third baseman Mark Reynolds would get off to such an explosive start this year?

4. Nothing makes your team slump faster than talking trash

My head-to-head team, The Therimaniacs, is undefeated so far. They rule. They're the greatest team ever. The other guys in my league aren't even a challenge. Having said all that, I can fully expect the bats to grow cold and the pitching staff to blow a gazillion save opportunities while posting an ERA just one run over infinity.

Therimaniacs (40-19-6) after the draft:
C - Ronny Paulino (PIT)
1B - Albert Pujols (STL)
2B - Placido Polanco (DET)
3B - Garrett Atkins (COL)
SS - Carlos Guillen (DET)
OF - Ichiro Suzuki (SEA)
OF - Carlos Lee (HOU)
OF - Brad Hawpe (COL)
Util - Derrek Lee (CHC)
BN - Michael Young (SS, TEX)
BN - Nick Swisher (1B, OF, CHW)
BN - Todd Helton (1B, COL)
BN - Edgar Renteria (SS, DET)
BN - Raul Ibanez (OF, SEA)
BN - Mike Napoli (C, LAA)

SP - John Smoltz (ATL)
SP - Rich Hill (CHC)
SP - Dontrelle Willis (DET)
RP - Rafael Soriano (ATL)
RP - Todd Jones (DET)
RP - Rafael Betancourt (CLE)

Therimaniacs (40-19-6) as of today:
C - Mike Napoli (LAA)
1B - Albert Pujols (STL)
2B - Placido Polanco (DET)
3B - Garrett Atkins (COL)
SS - Erick Aybar (LAA)
OF - Ichiro Suzuki (SEA)
OF - Carlos Lee (HOU)
OF - Raul Ibanez (SEA)
Util - Derrek Lee (CHC)
BN - Carlos Guillen (1B, 3B, SS, DET)
BN - Jose Lopez (2B, SEA)
BN - Michael Young (SS, TEX)
BN - Evan Longoria (3B, TB)

SP - Cliff Lee (CLE)
SP - Micah Owings (ARI)
SP - Scott Olsen (FLA)
RP - C.J. Wilson (TEX)
RP - Brandon Lyon (ARI)
RP - Kerry Wood (CHC)
RP - Todd Jones (DET)
BN - Joba Chamberlain (RP, NYY)
DL - John Smoltz (SP, ATL)

Fantasy: Week 1 Head-to-Head Results

With week 1 of the 2007 season in the books it's time to recap how my head-to-head teams fared this week. The summary is: not well.

Orix Blue Wave
(Head-to-Head, 12-teams, MLB.com hosted league)
Result: loss. (0-1-0)
Point tally: 108.5 to 140.5

The MLB.com version of fantasy baseball is vastly simplified by using entire team pitching staffs for a roster spot as opposed to managing individual pitchers. Managing pitchers is part of the fun of fantasy baseball. But limiting managers to team staffs does bring back a team element that is missing in other fantasy formats. But ultimately, I'm not fond of this approach.

You also lock in your roster before each week starts - eliminating day-to-day management. And in my case, eliminating a lot of third-base stats from Adrian Beltre due to all the Seattle-Cleveland postponed games. Not that he could have overcome a 38 point deficit.

Two things beat the Orix Blue Wave. (1) A bad week for pitching from the Philadelphia Phillies. This was not a good week to pick their staff. Freddy Garcia is injured and the relief pitching was just awful (I'm looking at you and your blown saves, Tom Gordon). Jamie Moyer brought in the only victory of the week. (2) Hanley Ramirez. Last season's NL Rookie of the Year put up numbers for my opponent that nearly single-handedly did me in. He went 8/25, 8 runs scored, 1 home run, 2RBI and 3 stolen bases last week. That's just amazing.

Leather, Runs & Repeat
(Head-to-Head, 10-teams, ESPN.com hosted league)
Result: tie. (0-0-1)
Point tally: 4-4-2. On a 5x5 stat sheet we were deadlocked. I led in runs scored, batting average, strikeouts and wins. I trailed in home runs, saves, ERA and WHIP. I tied for RBIs and stolen bases.

The team of "geriatrics and invalids" held their own this week. Though my pitching continued to be terrible across the board for all fantasy teams.

ESPN had technical problems and glitches all over the place this week. But I give them credit for being open and active about their issues and communicating their efforts to fix things. And I do enjoy the many mis-spellings on their fantasy page today (or should I say fatnasy?).

Gyro Ballerz
(Head-to-Head, 8-teams, FoxSports.com hosted league)
Result: loss. (0-1-0)
Point tally: 215.3 to 156.7

Fox has a nice interface for fantasy baseball. Though I wish there was a better way to differentiate between daily and cumulative point tallies for individual players.

Despite a strong week from Carlos Beltran, I was beat across the board in this one. My opponent had the highest point total in the league for the week and would have beat anyone.

Fantasy: Big Shifts for the Oriole Blue Wave

Oriole Blue Wave
(6x6 Rotisserie, Yahoo leagues, 17 teams)
Currently tied for 4th with 123 points - 29.5 points behind the leader.

After hitting at least one RBI in every game to start the season - and flashing a healthy big of home run power - I traded Vladimir Guerrero while his value was extremely high.

Trade: Vladimir Guerrero (LAA, OF) for Ryan Howard (PHI, 1B) and Luke Scott (HOU, OF).

Howard is off to a slow start. He's hitting just .214 with just 2 runs scored and no RBIs. But last year's NL MVP (with those 58 homers) can only heat up. While Guerrero (the AL MVP of 2004) can only cool down. Luke Scott is a bit of a gamble, but my out field bench is deep enough to take a chance on him. Howard was #2 on my list going into the draft.

With a newly acquired elite first baseman there was no reason to hold on to Casey Kotchman (LAA, 1B) - who hit well as a backup option - or Lyle Overbay (TOR, 1B) - who is a steady, .300+ hitter.

Overbay is an excellent backup at first, but I opted to open up his roster spot to deal with my weak shortstop position. I had been playing Maicer Izturis (LAA, SS, 3B). He hits well, delivering some runs, RBIs and the odd stolen base. But he typically hits 9th in that lineup and is unlikely to deliver any power from that position. And I don't know if he'll be an every-day player when Chone Figgins returns from the DL. If there's anything I learned from fantasy baseball last year it is that home runs make all the difference in all offensive stats. So I plucked Kahlil Greene (SD, SS) from the free agency pool. He's probably good for at least 15 home runs and may be looking at a breakout year.

Anyone looking to add speed to their fantasy team should take a look at Chris Duffy (PIT, OF). I expect his average to improve this year and he should pick up a nice pile of stolen bases.

Anyone looking for saves should monitor this closer site. The pitchers first and second in line are the guys to grab when somebody goes down to injury or blows too many save opportunities.

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Oriole Blue Wave lineup going into Saturday, April 7

C - Mike Piazza (OAK) @ LAA
1B - Ryan Howard (PHI) @ FLA
2B - Chris Burke (HOU) v. STL
3B - Edwin Encarnacion (CIN) v. PIT
SS - Maicer Izturis (LAA) v. OAK
OF - Jeff Francouer (ATL) v. NYM
OF - Alex Rios (TOR) @ TB
OF - Luke Scott (HOU) v. STL
U - Chris Duffy (PIT) @ CIN

SP - Brandon Webb (ARI) @ WAS
SP - Brett Myers (PHI) @ FLA
RP - Mariano Rivera (NYY) v. BAL
RP - Al Reyes (TB) v. TOR
RP - Salomon Torres (PIT) @ CIN
RP - Luis Vizcaino (NYY) v. BAL
RP - David Riske (KC) v. BOS

Fantasy: The OrioleBlueWave Draft Results

The live draft for my 6x6 rotisserie league went down and with 17-teams in the league this year it took a good chunk of time to get through 21 rounds. And with 357 players drafted I think I managed to keep my picks within the top-300 players in the major league. Even at #10 in the draft order.

The OrioleBlueWave:

Batting -
Catcher: Mike Piazza (OAK)
First Base: Lyle Overbay (TOR)
Second Base: Chris Burke (HOU) / Aaron Hill (TOR)
Third Base: Hank Blalock (TEX) / Edwin Encarnacion (CIN) / Akinori Iwamura (TB)
Shortstop: Aaron Hill (TOR)
Outfield: Vladimir Guerrero (LAA) / Alex Rios (TOR) / Jeff Francoeur (ATL) / Chris Duffy (PIT) / Corey Hart (MIL) / Chris B. Young (ARI)

Pitching -
Starting Pitching: Chris Carpenter (STL) / Brandon Webb (ARI) / Brett Myers (PHI) / AJ Burnett (TOR)
Relief Pitching: Mariano Rivera (NYY) / Octavio Dotel (KC) / Salomon Torres (PIT) / Brian Stokes (TB)

At 17-teams, nobody gets much in the way of all-star players. I things ran pretty thin before I staffed up that infield. Aaron Hill was my #21 pick - so he was the best I could do to fill in shortstop at that point. I'm hoping Akinori Iwamura has a breakout year coming over from Japan and is my sleeper pick and Chris Duffy turns out to be the speed guy I can depend on. I also hope Piazza's days as a DH keep his bat in the lineup consistently enough that I don't need a backup catcher. And that starting rotation just looks outstanding. Brian Stokes is unofficially the D-Rays closer and hopefully up for the job there. And as Holds are a stat this year I've already added Luis Vizcaino (NYY) and dropped Chris B. Young.

With 4 fantasy teams all lined up and ready to go it's time for the real teams to get under way.

Another Day, Another Draft

Today was another automated draft for my Fox Sports head-to-head league. This team turned out to be pretty interesting:

Team: Gyro Ballerz

Catcher: Victor Martinez (CLE) / Jorge Posada (NYY)
First Base: Derrek Lee (CHC) / Nomar Garciaparra (LAD) / Shea Hillenbrand (LAA)
Second Base: Robinson Cano (NYY) / Craig Biggio (HOU)
Third Base: Troy Glaus (TOR) / Mike Lowell (BOS) / Shea Hillenbrand (LAA)
Short Stop: Stephen Drew (ARI)
Outfield: Ichiro (SEA) / Carlos Beltran (NYM) / Andruw Jones (ATL) / Alex Rios (TOR)
Starting Pitching: Johan Santana (MIN) / Chris Carpenter (STL) / Rich Harden (OAK) / CC Sabathia (CLE) / Chris Capuano (MIL) / Matt Cain (SFG)
Relief Pitching: Huston Street (OAK) / Takashi Saito (LAD)

With "Innings Pitched" one of the stats and no limit there's no reason not to load up on starting pitching. Though a few more relievers might be good for more saves. I've already raided the waiver wire for some last minute closers. I like this team. Everything seems pretty strong except for shortstop. And I really don't know what Stephen Drew will be doing this year so he might be a surprise.

Tomorrow will be the live draft for my fourth of what will be a 4-team fantasy year for Leather Runs & Repeat. Let the season begin.

Fantasy: The Team of Geriatrics and Invalids

Today was draft day for my second fantasy team for the season. This one is a head-to-head league over at ESPN. After carefully pre-ranking players and opting for an auto draft I ended up with a rag-tag collection of injured and older players. With no one from the AL Central it looks different from anything I've managed before:

Team: Leather Runs & Repeat:
Batting:
Catcher: Mike Piazza (OAK) age: 38 - listed Day-to-Day
First Base: Nick Johnson (WAS) age: 28 - OUT (broken leg)
Second Base: Jeff Kent (LAD) age: 39
Third Base: Hank Blalock (TEX) age: 26 - listed Day-to-Day
Short Stop: Bobby Crosby (OAK) age: 27 - listed Day-to-Day
Outfield: Carl Crawford (TB) age: 25 - listed Day-to-Day
Outfield: Carlos Beltran (NYM) age: 30 - listed Day-to-Day
Outfield: Bobby Abreu (NYY) age: 33 - listed Day-to-Day
Utility: Adam Dunn (CIN) age: 27
Bench: Rocco Baldelli (TB) age: 25 - listed Day-to-Day
Bench: Eric Byrnes (ARI) age: 31

Pitching:
Rich Harden (OAK) RHP, SP age: 25
Mike Mussina (NYY) RHP, SP age: 38
Jake Peavy (SD) RHP, SP age: 26
Mariano Rivera (NYY) RHP, RP age: 37
Francisco Rodriguez (LAA) RHP, RP age: 25
Curt Schilling (BOS) RHP, SP age: 40
Jason Schmidt (LAD) RHP, SP age: 34
John Smoltz (ATL) RHP, SP age: 40
Jered Weaver (LAA) RHP, SP age: 24 - 15-Day Disabled List

• It's interesting that there are no lefties in the pitching staff. But a lot of proven aces in there.
• I think this particular fantasy team will produce more home run power than I'm used to seeing.
  
• That outfield is outstanding. Total all-stars. Even on the bench.
• The infield bothers me. Particularly not having a first baseman - usually a steady source of power.

I have a number of moves pending as I look to address the lack of a healthy first baseman and a weak short-stop and third base.

It's Fantasy Time!

Only 36 days until opening day!

With spring training games just around the corner the familiar giddiness of the anticipated season ahead is starting to kick in. After spending the last two seasons taking in the games from Southern California it will be interesting to observe things from the East Coast this year.

Last year was my first foray into fantasy baseball. It's a great way to follow individual performances of players from all 30 teams and I learned a lot. Now with all my rookie-drafting mistakes behind me I've decided to manage three teams this season and try out three different variations on the fantasy rules and presentation.

Well, the draft for my public, head-to-head league at MLB.com has come and gone. And I've got Ryan Howard at first! The 2006 NL MVP and 2005 Rookie of the Year was my #2 most sought player and it seemed unlikely that I could land him with only the seventh pick overall. My other "super star" player would have to be Carl Crawford. Well, he would be a super star if he played in a larger market (or for a better team).

Here's the team: OrixBlueWave

Catcher: Brian McCann (ATL) bench - Ronny Paulino (PIT)
First Base: Ryan Howard (PHI)
Second Base: Luis Castillo (MIN) bench - Aaron Hill (TOR)
Third Base: Adrian Beltre (SEA) bench - Mark Teahen (KC)
Shortstop: Carlos Guillen (DET) bench - Aaron Hill (TOR)
Outfield: Carl Crawford (TB) bench - Chris Duffy (PIT)
Outfield: Micheal Cuddyer (MIN) bench - Nick Markakis (BAL)
Outfield: Juan Pierre (LAD)

Pitching: Philadelphia Phillies bench - Toronto Blue Jays

MLB fantasy leagues do an interesting thing with pitching where you have to select an entire team's pitching staff as opposed to drafting individuals. As a pitching obsessed fan I was skeptical about this aspect. But it might work out for head-to-head competition where a team's overall win/loss record (and team ERA, WHIP, etc.) becomes a factor. It makes sense to pick a team one expects to win their division to maximize their pitching stats and I think this is going to be the Phillies' year. I'm thrilled to have Brett Myers, Cole Hamels, Jamie Moyer, Freddie Garcia, Tom Gordon and the rest pitching for my fantasy world. In the first week I'll be matching up against the Los Angeles Dodgers pitching staff. That could be interesting.

I expect to do extremely well with stolen bases - Pierre, Castillo and Duffy are big base stealers. Duffy's 26 stolen bases against only 1 caught stealing in just 84 games last year makes him an interesting prospect - though I'd like to see that hitting average climb a bit before making him a regular starter. The risk here is that these guys don't put up big power numbers or knock in many RBIs.

If there's an anticipated weakness it will be power at the plate as I'm relying heavily on Howard and Crawford to hit the long balls. Several players have the potential to have a big year: Guillen, Beltre, Markakis, Teahen, etc. But they are all a gamble on my part and I'm running shallow at 2nd and 3rd if these guys falter. Let's go BlueWave!