Seattle Mariners @ Baltimore Orioles - April 6, 2008

(Win Probability Graphing by Fangraphs)

The Seattle Mariners snatched defeat from the jaws of victory as their puzzling inability to take advantage of shaky starting pitching from Jeremy Guthrie (his command was all over the place) combined with a JJ Putz-less bullpen wasted an impressive 8-innings of shutout baseball by King Felix.

Felix Hernandez: 8.0 IP, 5H, 0 R, 0ER, 2 BB, 6 SO, 0HR 0.00ERA - No Decision. King Felix mixed in a lot of off speed pitches in the early frames before featuring his wicked fastball more prominently later on. He was particularly good at pitching his way out of trouble and the defense working behind him turned some outstanding double-plays.


The win practically fell into the lap of Orioles reliever Dennis Sarfate: 1.0 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 1 SO, 0HR 0.00ERA. He was featuring a fastball in the high-90s with exceptional location.


Temperature at game time: 52 degrees with drizzle. Paid attendance: 19,215.

Yankees 2, Orioles 4

(Win Probability graphing by Fangraphs)
Yankees player of the game: (2B) Robinson Cano - WPA +.091
1/4, 0R, 0HR, 1RBI, 0BB, 1SO
Yankees lowest contributor: (C) Jorge Posada - WPA -.182
0/4, 0R, 0HR, 0RBI, 0BB, 2SO

Orioles player of the game: (C) Ramon Hernandez - WPA +.237
3/3, 0R, 0HR, 2RBI, 1BB, 0SO
Orioles lowest contributor: (SS) Miguel Tejada - WPA -.122
0/4, 0R, 0HR, 0RBI, 0BB, 1SO

Andy Pettitte: 7.0IP, 8H, 3R, 3ER, 3BB, 5SO, 0HR - L
Scott Proctor: 0.2IP, 2H, 1R, 1ER, 0BB, 0SO, 0HR
Ron Villone: 0.1IP, 0H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 0SO, 0HR

Jeremy Guthrie: 6.0IP, 6H, 2R, 2ER, 3BB, 4SO, 0HR - W
John Parrish: 0.2IP, 0H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 0SO, 0HR - H
Paul Shuey: 0.1IP, 0H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 0SO, 0HR - H
Jamie Walker: 1.0IP, 0H, 0R, 0ER, 1BB, 0SO, 0HR - H
Chad Bradford: 1.0IP, 1H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 0SO, 0HR - SV

Even as the New York Yankees traverse the ragged edge toward mathematical elimination from the playoffs this year there is a completely different energy at the ballpark when they take to the field. As I sat out by left field in the stands in Baltimore the Yankees jerseys and vocal fans outnumbered the local orange and black by a wide margin. Not exactly baseball's more introspective fan base, the bleacher creatures of Baltimore were loud, passionate, and prone to logic-free cheers at oddly chosen moments. My personal favorite is the one yelling "let's go, Yankees" as he's making an early departure from a losing effort. It came off as an invitation to abandon the game, as in "let's go back to Jersey."

On the field, the Bronx Bombers exude professionalism and as much as I cheer against them out of habit they are still one of the more impressive offensive lineups around.

Andy Pettitte isn't the devastating force on the mound he used to be. Yet even as his control gets away from him a bit he remains an above average major league starting pitcher capable of logging in quality starts and giving his offense a chance. And he'll eat up innings, which is a good thing for the Yankee's bullpen down the stretch.

From my perspective, Jeremy Guthrie seemed to be throwing fastballs about 95% of the time. And if the stadium radar gun is to be believed, they were all coming in around 94 miles per hour. While the ability to repeat pitches may be a virtue, the fact that the Yankee offense wasn't just squaring up and teeing off on his heaters indicates he must be spotting his pitches all over the place in and around the strike zone. He'll need to mix in more off speed offerings and sliders as hitters start to figure him out. But it's hard to argue with the effectiveness he showed in this outing.

Angels 4, Orioles 3

Some observations from section 29, row G, seat 5 at today's rubber-match between the Angels and Orioles:

A well pitched game on both sides. I enjoyed that.

Jeremy Guthrie throws some serious heat. With a fastball in the mid to high 90s he was perfect his first time through the Angels batting order. He has the potential to be a front-end of the rotation kind of starter as he had 6-innings of 1-2-3 efficiency.

John Lackey also packs some mean heat. And a good slider. And as a veteran he managed to get the win even though Guthrie clearly out pitched him today. The Orioles' pitching staff didn't allow any walks, whereas Lackey issued 3 free passes. But his only real mistake pitch was the one Jay Payton barely muscled over the left field wall for a 2-run home run in the second inning.

When the Angels' offense wasn't being retired in order they were making their hits count. 4 hits, 4 runs scored and no runners stranded. That made all the difference in the world with a 1-run margin.

The game-ending double-play was swift and exciting with the potential tying run cut down at the plate by Vladimir Guerrero. It looked like catcher Mike Napoli may have been injured on the play as he had to be helped off the field.

Angels player of the game: (RP) Francisco Rodriguez - WPA +.383
1.1IP, 2H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 0SO, 0HR

Angels lowest contributor of the game: Gary Matthews Jr. - WPA -.104
0/4, 0R, 0HR, 0RBI, oBB, 1SO

Orioles player of the game: Jay Payton - WPA +.296
2/4, 1R, 1HR, 2RBI, 0BB, 1SO

Orioles lowest contributor of the game: (2B) Brian Roberts - WPA -.358
1/2, 1R, 0HR, 0RBI, 0BB, 0SO

John Lackey: 7.1IP, 4H, 3R, 3ER, 5SO, 1HR - W
Scot Shields: 0.1IP, 1H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 0SO, 0HR - H
Francisco Rodriguez: 1.1IP, 2H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 0SO, 0HR - SV

Jeremy Guthrie: 8.0IP, 4H, 4R, 4ER, 0BB, 7SO, 2HR - L
Chad Bradford: 0.2IP, 0H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 0SO, 0HR
Jamie Walker: 0.1IP, 0H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 1SO, 0HR

Wily Mo Pena - Grand Slammer

I made it out to Camden Yards for the first time this evening. Adam Loewen came out strong in the top of the first - striking out the first three batters he faced with a fastball in the low-to-mid 90s. After that inning, though, he seemed to lose his command and velocity and walked 5 batters - equal to the total number of strikeouts he recorded in 6 innings of work. He threw a lot of pitches in that time. Josh Beckett was much more efficient as he went 8 innings before Chris Ray blew the save opportunity with a grand slam off the bat of Wily Mo Pena to put the win right into Beckett's lap. Jonathan Papelbon picked up the save and he was impressive. Pena's hit had an amazing high arc as it sailed out to center field.

Watching Brian Roberts steal third base off of Beckett in the third inning was a lot of fun to see.

The energy of the crowd at Camden Yard was surprising. Red Sox fans clearly outnumbered the home team fans and they erupted in a big way for that grand slam. It has clearly been too long since Baltimore fielded a winning team.

Starting Pitchers to Watch in 2007: Jaret Wright

Only 54 days until opening day.

Now hear me out on this one. I know what Jaret Wright's numbers have been these past couple of seasons. But I think there's some reason to be optimistic about his chances in '07. His 11-7 record in 2006 wasn't bad. He just wasn't the 15-8 3.28ERA starting pitcher he was in Atlanta in 2004 before the Yankees picked him up.

Here's why I'm intrigued with Wright this season:

• The move to the Baltimore Orioles reunites him with pitching coach Loe Mazzone - the same guy he worked with when he was pitching for the Braves.
• He's still pitching in the AL East. So he'll get plenty of chances to pitch against his former team and (hopefully) give those Yanks a lot of grief.
• I need to get excited about somebody pitching for my new home town team.
• Even if he lives up to the Bill James, CHONE, Marcel or ZiPS projections (Bill James has him projected with a losing record) he'll help those Orioles fly a bit higher than they did last year.
• He has a history of bouncing back from rough seasons and putting together quality outings.

In terms of fantasy baseball, he's not draft-worthy. Put him on your watch list.