3-picks: Second Try at the Igawa Debut

April 7: Steve Trachsel (0-0)(BAL) vs. Kei Igawa (0-0)(NYY) The April 4 rain delay pushed Igawa's first start in the majors by a day. Today should be the day to see what this lefty brings.
(Win Probability graphing by Fangraphs)
Steve Trachsel: 6.2IP, 4H, 3R, 3ER, 2BB, 3SO, 1HR - ND
Jamie Walker: 0.2IP, 0H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 1SO, 0HR - H
Chris Ray: 0.2IP, 2H, 4R, 4ER, 1BB, 1SO, 1HR - BS, L

Kei Igawa: 5.0IP, 8H, 7R, 7ER, 3BB, 2SO, 2HR - ND
Mariano Rivera: 1.0IP, 1H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 1SO, 0HR - W

April 8: Roy Halladay (0-0)(TOR) vs. Scott Kazmir (0-0)(TB) Two of the best aces in the AL East opposing each other in this one.(Win Probability graphing by Fangraphs)
Roy Halladay: 7.0IP, 7H, 3R, 3ER, 3BB, 7SO, 1HR - W
Casey Janssen: 2.0IP, 0H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 1SO, 0HR - S

Scott Kazmir: 7.0IP, 7H, 4R, 4ER, 2BB, 10SO, 2HR - L

April 9: Jeff Francis (0-0)(COL) vs. Jason Schmidt (1-0)(LAD) Schmidt has proven to be a fine addition to my fantasy team (Gyro Ballerz) so far this year. And his heater is only supposed to get better as the season goes along. And Francis gets to bring his game to a pitcher's park after that tough game at home against Arizona.(Win Probability graphing by Fangraphs)
Jason Schmidt: 4.0IP, 7H, 4R, 3ER, 0BB, 6SO, 1HR - L

Jeff Francis: 6.2IP, 5H, 2R, 2ER, 3BB, 6SO, 1HR - W
Ramon Ramirez: 0.1IP, 0H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 1SO, 0HR - H
Manny Corpas: 1.0IP, 0H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 0SO, 0HR - H

Fantasy: Big Shifts for the Oriole Blue Wave

Oriole Blue Wave
(6x6 Rotisserie, Yahoo leagues, 17 teams)
Currently tied for 4th with 123 points - 29.5 points behind the leader.

After hitting at least one RBI in every game to start the season - and flashing a healthy big of home run power - I traded Vladimir Guerrero while his value was extremely high.

Trade: Vladimir Guerrero (LAA, OF) for Ryan Howard (PHI, 1B) and Luke Scott (HOU, OF).

Howard is off to a slow start. He's hitting just .214 with just 2 runs scored and no RBIs. But last year's NL MVP (with those 58 homers) can only heat up. While Guerrero (the AL MVP of 2004) can only cool down. Luke Scott is a bit of a gamble, but my out field bench is deep enough to take a chance on him. Howard was #2 on my list going into the draft.

With a newly acquired elite first baseman there was no reason to hold on to Casey Kotchman (LAA, 1B) - who hit well as a backup option - or Lyle Overbay (TOR, 1B) - who is a steady, .300+ hitter.

Overbay is an excellent backup at first, but I opted to open up his roster spot to deal with my weak shortstop position. I had been playing Maicer Izturis (LAA, SS, 3B). He hits well, delivering some runs, RBIs and the odd stolen base. But he typically hits 9th in that lineup and is unlikely to deliver any power from that position. And I don't know if he'll be an every-day player when Chone Figgins returns from the DL. If there's anything I learned from fantasy baseball last year it is that home runs make all the difference in all offensive stats. So I plucked Kahlil Greene (SD, SS) from the free agency pool. He's probably good for at least 15 home runs and may be looking at a breakout year.

Anyone looking to add speed to their fantasy team should take a look at Chris Duffy (PIT, OF). I expect his average to improve this year and he should pick up a nice pile of stolen bases.

Anyone looking for saves should monitor this closer site. The pitchers first and second in line are the guys to grab when somebody goes down to injury or blows too many save opportunities.

---------
Oriole Blue Wave lineup going into Saturday, April 7

C - Mike Piazza (OAK) @ LAA
1B - Ryan Howard (PHI) @ FLA
2B - Chris Burke (HOU) v. STL
3B - Edwin Encarnacion (CIN) v. PIT
SS - Maicer Izturis (LAA) v. OAK
OF - Jeff Francouer (ATL) v. NYM
OF - Alex Rios (TOR) @ TB
OF - Luke Scott (HOU) v. STL
U - Chris Duffy (PIT) @ CIN

SP - Brandon Webb (ARI) @ WAS
SP - Brett Myers (PHI) @ FLA
RP - Mariano Rivera (NYY) v. BAL
RP - Al Reyes (TB) v. TOR
RP - Salomon Torres (PIT) @ CIN
RP - Luis Vizcaino (NYY) v. BAL
RP - David Riske (KC) v. BOS

3-picks: Three American League Games - 2 Japanese Pitching Debuts

Wednesday April 4: AJ Burnett (0-0)(TOR) vs. Nate Robertson (0-0)(DET) This is a good match up as Burnett looks to be the #2 starter Toronto was looking for last year before the injuries sidelines him and Nate Robertson was the most underrated of Detroit's outstanding rotation on their pennant run.(Win Probability Graphing by Fangraphs)
AJ Burnett: 2.0IP, 5H, 6R, 6ER, 4BB, 2SO, 0HR - L
Nate Robertson: 5.2IP, 7H, 2R, 2ER, 2BB, 4SO, 1HR - W
Todd Jones: 1.0IP, 1H, 0R, 0ER, 1BB, 0SO, 0HR - S

Thursday April 5: Daisuke Matsuzaka (0-0)(BOS) vs. Zack Greinke (0-0)(KC) There's plenty of hype around D-Mat's major league debut and his mysterious gyro ball. But I'm also equally intrigued with Zack Greinke's return after missing most of last year to get his head together. Greinke has enormous potential and he's my #1 sleeper candidate for starting pitchers in fantasy baseball this year.(Win Probability Graphing by Fangraphs)
Daisuke Matsuzaka: 7.0IP, 6H, 1R, 1ER, 1BB, 10SO, 1HR - W
Jonathan Papelbon: 1.0IP, 0H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 2SO, 0HR - SV
Zack Greinke: 7.0IP, 8H, 2R, 1ER, 1BB, 7SO, 0HR - L


Friday April 6: Adam Loewen (0-0)(BAL) vs. Kei Igawa (0-0)(NYY) Igawa didn't draw all the hype (and big bucks) of D-Mat's Boston saga. Both of these pitchers have a lot riding on their shoulders as they come in with big expectations for their respective teams. And oddly, both of these rivals have a lot of uncertainty about the quality of their rotations this year.(Win Probability Graphing by Fangraphs)

Adam Loewen: 5.0IP, 5H, 2R, 2ER, 3BB, 2SO, 0HR - W
Chad Bradford: 0.1IP, 2H, 1R, 0ER, 0BB, 1SO, 0HR - H
Jamie Walker: 0.2IP, 1H, 0R, 0ER, 1BB, 1SO, 0HR - H
Danys Baez: 1.0IP, 0H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 0SO, 0HR - H
Chris Ray: 1.0IP, 0H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 0SO, 0HR - S

Mike Mussina: 4.0IP, 8H, 6R, 6ER, 3BB, 4SO, 0HR - L

2007 Forcasting

The first pitch of the new season is about two hours away. It's time to make some predictions for October. A lot of folks talk about "win shares" and some impressive stat manipulation for making their predictions. I just go with raw gut and intuition. And for what it's worth - that led me to predict the Cardinals would win the world series last January 2006.

Regular Season Standings:
AL Central:
1 Minnesota Twins
2 Detroit Tigers
3 Chicago White Sox
4 Cleveland Indians
5 Kansas City Royals

The AL Central should be a tight race with KC ending up at dead last the only easy call. Go Twins!

AL East:
1 New York Yankees
2 Toronto Blue Jays * wild card
3 Boston Red Sox
4 Baltimore Orioles
5 Tampa Bay Devil Rays

The Yankees will overcome their current starting pitching woes and the Red Sox won't be up for the full marathon for a repeat of 2006's results.

AL West:
1 Los Angeles Angels
2 Oakland Athletics
3 Seattle Mariners
4 Texas Rangers

Please finish ahead of the Rangers, Seattle. It's all I can hope for at this point.

NL Central:
1 Houston Astros
2 St. Louis Cardinals
3 Chicago Cubs
4 Milwaukee Brewers
5 Cincinnati Reds
6 Pittsburgh Pirates

The addition of Carlos Lee and Jason Jennings will give the Astros the lift they need to clear the division title.

NL East:
1 Philadelphia Phillies
2 New York Mets * wild card
3 Atlanta Braves
4 Florida Marlins
5 Washington Nationals

The Nationals will plumb new depths this year as they stink it up all season long.

NL West:
1 Arizona Diamondbacks
2 Los Angeles Dodgers
3 San Francisco Giants
4 San Diego Padres
5 Colorado Rockies

This one is the hardest one to call. It's really anybody's race.

Postseason:
ALDS: Blue Jays defeat the Twins / Angels defeat the Yankees
ALCS: Blue Jays defeat the Angels
NLDS: Phillies defeat the Diamondbacks / Mets defeat the Astros
NLCS: Phillies defeat the Mets
World Series: Phillies defeat the Blue Jays - a rematch of the 1993 world series.

Actual results will most definitely vary.

3 Picks: It's Here

It seems like only a couple of weeks ago that I was driving past Busch Stadium on my cross-country relocation to the AL East. Now it's the sight of the first game of the regular season as the Mets swing into St. Louis.

Three pitching match ups that look promising over the next three days:

Sunday, April 1 in St. Louis: Tom Glavine (0-0) (NYM) vs. Chris Carpenter (0-0) (STL).(Win Probability Graphing by Fangraphs)
Tom Glavine: 6.0IP, 6H, 1R, 1ER, 1BB, 2SO, 0HR - W
Chris Carpenter: 6.0IP, 9H, 5R, 5ER, 1BB, 3SO, 0HR - L

Monday, April 2 in Philadelphia: John Smoltz (0-0) (ATL) vs. Brett Myers (0-0) (PHI). With all the aces out on the mound for most teams' first game of the season, this is the one that I would watch as I pull for the Phillies this year.(Win Probability Graphing by Fangraphs)
John Smoltz: 6.0IP, 8H, 3R, 3ER, 1BB, 7SO, 1HR - no decision
Bob Wickman: 1.0IP, 1H, 0R, 0ER, 1BB, 1SO, 0HR - W
Chad Paronto: 1.0IP, 0H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 1SO, 0HR - S

Brett Myers: 7.2IP, 4H, 3R, 3ER, 2BB, 9SO, 2HR - no decision
Ryan Madson: 1.0IP, 1H, 2R, 2ER, 1BB, 1SO, 1HR - L

Tuesday, April 3 in San Francisco: Jake Peavy (0-0) (SD) vs. Barry Zito (0-0) (SF). I think Zito will have little problem transitioning to the National League. This will be the first indication of what kind of return the Giants will get on their substantial investment. Peavy is also well worth keeping an eye on.(Win Probability Graphing by Fangraphs)
Jake Peavy: 6.0IP, 3H, 0R, 0ER, 2BB, 6SO, 0HR - W
Barry Zito: 5.0IP, 4H, 3R, 2ER, 2BB, 2SO, 0HR - L

Fantasy: The OrioleBlueWave Draft Results

The live draft for my 6x6 rotisserie league went down and with 17-teams in the league this year it took a good chunk of time to get through 21 rounds. And with 357 players drafted I think I managed to keep my picks within the top-300 players in the major league. Even at #10 in the draft order.

The OrioleBlueWave:

Batting -
Catcher: Mike Piazza (OAK)
First Base: Lyle Overbay (TOR)
Second Base: Chris Burke (HOU) / Aaron Hill (TOR)
Third Base: Hank Blalock (TEX) / Edwin Encarnacion (CIN) / Akinori Iwamura (TB)
Shortstop: Aaron Hill (TOR)
Outfield: Vladimir Guerrero (LAA) / Alex Rios (TOR) / Jeff Francoeur (ATL) / Chris Duffy (PIT) / Corey Hart (MIL) / Chris B. Young (ARI)

Pitching -
Starting Pitching: Chris Carpenter (STL) / Brandon Webb (ARI) / Brett Myers (PHI) / AJ Burnett (TOR)
Relief Pitching: Mariano Rivera (NYY) / Octavio Dotel (KC) / Salomon Torres (PIT) / Brian Stokes (TB)

At 17-teams, nobody gets much in the way of all-star players. I things ran pretty thin before I staffed up that infield. Aaron Hill was my #21 pick - so he was the best I could do to fill in shortstop at that point. I'm hoping Akinori Iwamura has a breakout year coming over from Japan and is my sleeper pick and Chris Duffy turns out to be the speed guy I can depend on. I also hope Piazza's days as a DH keep his bat in the lineup consistently enough that I don't need a backup catcher. And that starting rotation just looks outstanding. Brian Stokes is unofficially the D-Rays closer and hopefully up for the job there. And as Holds are a stat this year I've already added Luis Vizcaino (NYY) and dropped Chris B. Young.

With 4 fantasy teams all lined up and ready to go it's time for the real teams to get under way.

Another Day, Another Draft

Today was another automated draft for my Fox Sports head-to-head league. This team turned out to be pretty interesting:

Team: Gyro Ballerz

Catcher: Victor Martinez (CLE) / Jorge Posada (NYY)
First Base: Derrek Lee (CHC) / Nomar Garciaparra (LAD) / Shea Hillenbrand (LAA)
Second Base: Robinson Cano (NYY) / Craig Biggio (HOU)
Third Base: Troy Glaus (TOR) / Mike Lowell (BOS) / Shea Hillenbrand (LAA)
Short Stop: Stephen Drew (ARI)
Outfield: Ichiro (SEA) / Carlos Beltran (NYM) / Andruw Jones (ATL) / Alex Rios (TOR)
Starting Pitching: Johan Santana (MIN) / Chris Carpenter (STL) / Rich Harden (OAK) / CC Sabathia (CLE) / Chris Capuano (MIL) / Matt Cain (SFG)
Relief Pitching: Huston Street (OAK) / Takashi Saito (LAD)

With "Innings Pitched" one of the stats and no limit there's no reason not to load up on starting pitching. Though a few more relievers might be good for more saves. I've already raided the waiver wire for some last minute closers. I like this team. Everything seems pretty strong except for shortstop. And I really don't know what Stephen Drew will be doing this year so he might be a surprise.

Tomorrow will be the live draft for my fourth of what will be a 4-team fantasy year for Leather Runs & Repeat. Let the season begin.

Go Laundry Go!

Between fantasy baseball, moving around the country, obsessing about pitching and being disillusioned with my "favorite" team, the whole concept of rooting for a team has weakened somewhat. But it's hard to shake one's team loyalties (even if, as Seinfeld pointed out, team loyalty is akin to rooting for the laundry because the players change teams so much). And I've developed a 5-5 system with top 5 favorite teams to root "for" and bottom 5 teams to root against. The other 20 teams fall into some opaque, fluid morass between #6 and #26.

Leather, Runs and Repeat team #5: Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim. Spending some time in this team's local market had them growing on me. (I'm not sure the Orioles will do the same now that I live in their zip code.) I did get to spend some time working with Angels' broadcaster Steve Physioc and it's hard not to share his genuine enthusiasm for this club. Watching Vladimir Guererro step up to the plate 500 - 600 times a year is a real joy.

Leather, Runs and Repeat team #4: Toronto Blue Jays. My first major league hometown team. My first game attended was the Rangers@Blue Jays at the old Exhibition Stadium. With Halladay, Burnett and Chacin as the 1-2-3 starters I think this the team with the best rotation in the AL East and they have a shot at putting a good scare into the evil empire. They did manage to take second in the division last year. And that was with significant injury problems in that starting rotation.

Leather, Runs and Repeat team #3: Philadelphia Phillies. I'd always been favorable to this team. But once they added my favorite pitcher (Jamie Moyer), along with Freddy Garcia after making a great run last year - in spite of seemingly dismantling at the trading deadline - I was hooked. I really think this is their year.

Leather, Runs and Repeat team #2: Minnesota Twins. The rise to take the division title on the last day of the regular season last year was the story for me. And along the way I was hooked on watching how they play. I remember a great series they played at home against the Chicago Cubs and another good series on the road against the Chicago White Sox. Justin Morneau and Joe Mauer are the new M&M boys.

Leather, Runs and Repeat team #1: Seattle Mariners. In spite of their efforts to shake all the fair weather fans I can't shake the team that first hooked me. The Carl Everett deal last year was a bad idea. Now they've followed that up with a trio of terrible off season moves: trading Rafael Soriano away for Horacio Ramirez, picking up the (almost Everett proportions of immaturity) Jose Guillen and installing Jose Vidro as the new DH. And yet I still pull for them to at least finish ahead of Texas in the standings.

Fantasy: The Team of Geriatrics and Invalids

Today was draft day for my second fantasy team for the season. This one is a head-to-head league over at ESPN. After carefully pre-ranking players and opting for an auto draft I ended up with a rag-tag collection of injured and older players. With no one from the AL Central it looks different from anything I've managed before:

Team: Leather Runs & Repeat:
Batting:
Catcher: Mike Piazza (OAK) age: 38 - listed Day-to-Day
First Base: Nick Johnson (WAS) age: 28 - OUT (broken leg)
Second Base: Jeff Kent (LAD) age: 39
Third Base: Hank Blalock (TEX) age: 26 - listed Day-to-Day
Short Stop: Bobby Crosby (OAK) age: 27 - listed Day-to-Day
Outfield: Carl Crawford (TB) age: 25 - listed Day-to-Day
Outfield: Carlos Beltran (NYM) age: 30 - listed Day-to-Day
Outfield: Bobby Abreu (NYY) age: 33 - listed Day-to-Day
Utility: Adam Dunn (CIN) age: 27
Bench: Rocco Baldelli (TB) age: 25 - listed Day-to-Day
Bench: Eric Byrnes (ARI) age: 31

Pitching:
Rich Harden (OAK) RHP, SP age: 25
Mike Mussina (NYY) RHP, SP age: 38
Jake Peavy (SD) RHP, SP age: 26
Mariano Rivera (NYY) RHP, RP age: 37
Francisco Rodriguez (LAA) RHP, RP age: 25
Curt Schilling (BOS) RHP, SP age: 40
Jason Schmidt (LAD) RHP, SP age: 34
John Smoltz (ATL) RHP, SP age: 40
Jered Weaver (LAA) RHP, SP age: 24 - 15-Day Disabled List

• It's interesting that there are no lefties in the pitching staff. But a lot of proven aces in there.
• I think this particular fantasy team will produce more home run power than I'm used to seeing.
  
• That outfield is outstanding. Total all-stars. Even on the bench.
• The infield bothers me. Particularly not having a first baseman - usually a steady source of power.

I have a number of moves pending as I look to address the lack of a healthy first baseman and a weak short-stop and third base.

Papelbon Bon Papelbon Bon

Move aside, and let the man go through... (apologies to Soul Coughing)

That massive pounding you hear out of New England is Jonathan Papelbon's fantasy value shooting way up on the announcement that he'll be Boston's closer for yet another year. With 35 saves as a rookie last year he's certainly proven in that role. Though I'd think he'd be an excellent starter and was ready to draft him for my own rotation. I'm a little surprised the Red Sox didn't make some kind of deal to bring Akinori Otsuka over to be their closer. I don't know if Texas needs two closers or they're not completely confident with Eric Gange's recovery.

I wonder how folks who have already drafted their teams feel about this move...

It's Fantasy Time!

Only 36 days until opening day!

With spring training games just around the corner the familiar giddiness of the anticipated season ahead is starting to kick in. After spending the last two seasons taking in the games from Southern California it will be interesting to observe things from the East Coast this year.

Last year was my first foray into fantasy baseball. It's a great way to follow individual performances of players from all 30 teams and I learned a lot. Now with all my rookie-drafting mistakes behind me I've decided to manage three teams this season and try out three different variations on the fantasy rules and presentation.

Well, the draft for my public, head-to-head league at MLB.com has come and gone. And I've got Ryan Howard at first! The 2006 NL MVP and 2005 Rookie of the Year was my #2 most sought player and it seemed unlikely that I could land him with only the seventh pick overall. My other "super star" player would have to be Carl Crawford. Well, he would be a super star if he played in a larger market (or for a better team).

Here's the team: OrixBlueWave

Catcher: Brian McCann (ATL) bench - Ronny Paulino (PIT)
First Base: Ryan Howard (PHI)
Second Base: Luis Castillo (MIN) bench - Aaron Hill (TOR)
Third Base: Adrian Beltre (SEA) bench - Mark Teahen (KC)
Shortstop: Carlos Guillen (DET) bench - Aaron Hill (TOR)
Outfield: Carl Crawford (TB) bench - Chris Duffy (PIT)
Outfield: Micheal Cuddyer (MIN) bench - Nick Markakis (BAL)
Outfield: Juan Pierre (LAD)

Pitching: Philadelphia Phillies bench - Toronto Blue Jays

MLB fantasy leagues do an interesting thing with pitching where you have to select an entire team's pitching staff as opposed to drafting individuals. As a pitching obsessed fan I was skeptical about this aspect. But it might work out for head-to-head competition where a team's overall win/loss record (and team ERA, WHIP, etc.) becomes a factor. It makes sense to pick a team one expects to win their division to maximize their pitching stats and I think this is going to be the Phillies' year. I'm thrilled to have Brett Myers, Cole Hamels, Jamie Moyer, Freddie Garcia, Tom Gordon and the rest pitching for my fantasy world. In the first week I'll be matching up against the Los Angeles Dodgers pitching staff. That could be interesting.

I expect to do extremely well with stolen bases - Pierre, Castillo and Duffy are big base stealers. Duffy's 26 stolen bases against only 1 caught stealing in just 84 games last year makes him an interesting prospect - though I'd like to see that hitting average climb a bit before making him a regular starter. The risk here is that these guys don't put up big power numbers or knock in many RBIs.

If there's an anticipated weakness it will be power at the plate as I'm relying heavily on Howard and Crawford to hit the long balls. Several players have the potential to have a big year: Guillen, Beltre, Markakis, Teahen, etc. But they are all a gamble on my part and I'm running shallow at 2nd and 3rd if these guys falter. Let's go BlueWave!

Starting Pitchers to Watch in 2007: Jeff Francis

Only 51 days until opening day.

Jeff Francis looks like a lefty on the cusp of a breakout year. He knocked his ERA down to 4.16 in his second full season in the majors. And the Bill James projection forecasts more of the same - if not better for 2007. He's become the most interesting part of what is turning into a solid rotation for the Colorado Rockies. If the bats come back around and spot a little more run support Francis will be a popular guy on the fantasy waiver wire. Personally, I'd consider drafting him.

Starting Pitchers to Watch in 2007: Chuck James

Only 52 days until opening day.

Chuck James' numbers from his rookie season in 2006 with the Braves are worthy of a double take. 11-4 with a 3.78 ERA on 18 starts, 25 appearances and 119 innings pitched. With a WHIP of 1.24 he's a fantasy baseball manager's dream. And yet there's a striking lack of buzz about this guy. The Bill James, CHONE, Marcel and ZiPS projections are positive overall - even if Bill James is the only one forecasting double-digit wins.

This guy would make a smart late-round draft pick in fantasy baseball.

Starting Pitchers to Watch in 2007: Jason Jennings

Only 53 days to opening day.

Jason Jennings only has one pitch: the sinker ball. But just knowing it's coming doesn't blunt its effectiveness. It will probably be even more effective with the move from Coors Field to Minute Maid Park. He'll probably be somewhere around his career best 3.78 ERA (212 innings of work) from last year. He was only 9-13, but the Rockies were just preparing him for the kind of run support he can expect from Houston. And as the Astros are my least favorite team it pains me to admit that this was an inspired trade to bring his sinker down to Texas.

The Bill James, CHONE, Marcel, ZiPS projections have him right around double-digit wins with some errosion on the hits allowed and ERA. I think he'll do better than that over in the NL Central Division.

This guy's another potential sleeper (I seem to be favoring those in my pre-season previews). He won't be drafted in too many fantasy leagues. I'd pick him up in a late round or put him on a watch list as he'll probably be available on waivers later in the year.

Starting Pitchers to Watch in 2007: Jaret Wright

Only 54 days until opening day.

Now hear me out on this one. I know what Jaret Wright's numbers have been these past couple of seasons. But I think there's some reason to be optimistic about his chances in '07. His 11-7 record in 2006 wasn't bad. He just wasn't the 15-8 3.28ERA starting pitcher he was in Atlanta in 2004 before the Yankees picked him up.

Here's why I'm intrigued with Wright this season:

• The move to the Baltimore Orioles reunites him with pitching coach Loe Mazzone - the same guy he worked with when he was pitching for the Braves.
• He's still pitching in the AL East. So he'll get plenty of chances to pitch against his former team and (hopefully) give those Yanks a lot of grief.
• I need to get excited about somebody pitching for my new home town team.
• Even if he lives up to the Bill James, CHONE, Marcel or ZiPS projections (Bill James has him projected with a losing record) he'll help those Orioles fly a bit higher than they did last year.
• He has a history of bouncing back from rough seasons and putting together quality outings.

In terms of fantasy baseball, he's not draft-worthy. Put him on your watch list.

Starting Pitchers to Watch in 2007: Scott Kazmir

Only 55 more days until opening day.

Continuing on a theme of left-handed pitchers who could (hopefully) give the New York Yankees a lot of grief in the season ahead I'll take a look at an obvious choice: Scott Kazmir of the Tampa Bay Devil Rays. The undisputed ace of the staff.

In 24 starts in 2006 he had a record of 10-8 with an ERA of 3.24 and an incredible 163 strikeouts in 144 and two-thirds innings of work - that's 10.14 K's per 9 innings! The Bill James, CHONE, Marcel and ZiPS projections forecast more of the same with a slight erosion of the ERA and K/9 ratio. With the unbalanced schedules being what they are he'll be fanning a lot of pinstripes.

This guy's an absolute keeper if you're lucky enough to draft him in your fantasy league.

Starting Pitchers to Watch in 2007: Gustavo Chacin

Only 56 days until opening day.

It may be too much to hope for a team other than the Yankees to take the AL East. But I'm pulling for the Toronto Blue Jays to put a good scare into the evil empire this year. They were, after all, the team that finished in second place in 2006 after Boston's dramatic melt down late in the season.

And if they do give the Bronx Bombers a good run it will because Gustavo Chacin has a break-out year as Toronto's #3 starter. Roy Halladay will - health permitting - be the ace of the staff. AJ Burnett will - health permitting - will be a solid #2 punch. The Bill James, CHONE, Marcel and ZiPS projections on Chacin aren't particularly generous. But I expect him to be closer to his 2005 numbers if he can stay away from injuries.

I wouldn't draft him in the fantasy leagues. But I would keep an eye on him and he should be good for a win against teams that struggle against lefties.

Some Words on the Awards

Rookie of the Year:
AL = Justin Verlander
No surprise. He would have been my first choice.
NL = Hanley Ramirez
I'm a little surprised. But he's an excellent choice.

Cy Young Award:
AL = Johan Santana
No surprise whatsoever. Completely deserved.
NL = Brandon Webb
I'm pleasantly surprised. I thought Chris Carpenter would get it for the second consecutive time and was ready to make an argument for why Webb deserved it more.

Manager of the Year:
AL = Jim Leyland
Definitely. No argument whatsoever on this one.
NL = Joe Girardi
Consider what everybody expected from the Marlins before the season and look at what Girardi did with them. There's no question that he deserved this one. It will look good on his resume now that he's looking for a job. Who's the smarty pants who fired their "Manager of the Year?"

MVP:
The NL will be announced Monday. And it will most likeley be between Albert Pujols and Ryan Howard. I'd have to give it the guy batting .331 even if he hit 9 fewer home runs. Go Albert!

The AL decision comes out on Tuesday. This one is a more crowded field. My favorite candidate is Justin Morneau. But I think Derek Jeter actually earned this one this past year. And in the end I won't be surprised if it actually goes to Jermaine Dye.

Managerial changes:
Lou Pinella will now manage the Cubs! This means that the interleague series in Chicago will pit Pinella against Ozzie Guillen. I don't know if any stadium can contain those two characters and I wouldn't want to miss that. If there's any truth to the rumors of Alfonso Soriano joining the Northsiders then I expect the Cubs to do much better in 2007. Though that deal would probably make Juan Pierre's departure all but certain. He would be an excellent pick-up for somebody looking for a great lead-off guy.

Let the Offseason Begin

So, the Cardinals were kind enough to eliminate the Astros.... and won the whole ball of wax for their troubles. Now the year turns toward news of free agency signings, winter meetings and a steady November stream of awards for the season just elapsed. By the time January rolls around the nausea of so much hot stove "intrigue" will have many fans longing for baseball minutia from the actual field of play.

The Rookie of the Year Awards will be announced for both leagues on November 13. And it could very well go to pitchers this year.

My personal pick for AL Rookie of the Year would be starting pitcher Justin Verlander of the Detroit Tigers (17-9, 3.63 ERA on 30 starts). My runners up would be starting pitcher Jered Weaver of the Los Angeles Angels (11-2, 2.56 ERA on 19 starts) and outfielder Nick Markakis of the Baltimore Orioles (.291 BA, 16HR, .351 OBS, .448 SLG in 147 games).

My personal pick for NL Rookie of the Year would be every rookie on the Marlins starting rotation. That was the biggest stunner of the season. But in cutting the field down to just one I would have to go with starting pitcher Josh Johnson of the Florida Marlins (12-7, 3.10 ERA on 24 starts and 7 relief appearances). My runners up would be starting pitcher Anibal Sanchez of the Florida Marlins (10-3, 2.83 ERA on 17 starts, 1 relief appearance and the only no-hitter pitched in 2006), second baseman Dan Uggla of the Florida Marlins (.282 BA, 27HR, .339 OBP, .480 SLG in 154 games) and third baseman Ryan Zimmerman of the Washington Nationals (.287 BA, 20HR, .351 OBP, .471 SLG in 157 games).

Catching Up with Jamie Moyer

Date	Team	Opp	GS	W	L	CG	ShO	SV	BS	IP	TBF	H	HR	R	ER	SO	BB	IBB	FB	GB	LD	Stk	Bal	Pit	RS	WPA
8/22	Phillies	@Cubs	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	6.0	26	6	0	3	3	4	1	0	4	10	5	58	36	94	6	0.07
8/28	Phillies	@Mets	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	6.0	28	9	0	7	5	4	0	0	6	12	4	63	35	98	2	-0.29
9/3	Phillies	Braves	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	7.1	28	6	2	3	3	3	2	0	5	13	5	60	43	103	6	0.13
9/8	Phillies	@Marlins	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	8.0	29	5	0	1	1	4	0	0	7	11	6	64	26	90	3	0.45
9/14	Phillies	@Braves	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	6.0	23	5	2	4	4	2	0	0	7	12	2	46	25	71	0	-0.09
9/19	Phillies	Cubs	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	7.0	27	6	1	1	1	3	0	0	7	10	5	66	32	98	3	0.35
9/24	Phillies	Marlins	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	6.0	26	8	3	5	5	3	2	1	7	10	4	55	42	97	9	-0.16

Moyer is 4-2 on 7 starts with a pair of wins extracted from the Cubs and the Marlins. Unsurprisingly, 6 of his 8 home runs allowed have come at home in that tiny ballpark.

The Dodgers reclaimed the lead in the Wild Card today with a win against the backdrop of a disappointing Philadelphia loss in Washington. And the Astros continue to streak alarmingly into this final week of the season. Let's hope for better results tomorrow.

Oh... and the Athletics have clinched the right to be eliminated in the first round of the playoffs.

Will Someone Please Eliminate the Astros

(Graphing by Fangraphs)

I just watched Houston complete their four-game sweep of the Cardinals. I am not impressed with any team in that division this year and pulling for a Twins-Phillies world series more than ever. The division leader sends Jeff Weaver to oppose Roger Clemens? And can we put the "killer B's" thing to bed now? It's as if the Astros can't spell bat because they get stuck on that first letter. Which might be the problem they have with that offense. Even Boof Bonser would keep those B's silent. Stinkin' 'stros.

Freddy Flirts with Perfection

(Win Probability graphing by Fangraphs)

This one was just too cool. I've always been a big Freddy Garcia fan ever since watching him come up with the Mariners and enjoyed his successes since being traded to Chicago. (He was the starting pitcher in game 4 of the '05 World Series). In this outstanding effort he went 7 and two-thirds innings before giving up a hit. And with no errors or walks that was incredibly close to perfection. This one was just one-hit allowed on a combined effort. Wow!

Chicago White Sox pitching:
Freddy Garcia: 8.0IP, 1H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 3SO, 0HR - Win
Neal Cotts: 1.0IP, 0H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 0SO, 0HR

Los Angeles Angels pitching:
Joe Saunders: 3.1IP, 8H, 7R, 7ER, 3BB, 5SO, 0HR - Loss
JC Romero: 0.1IP, 0H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 0SO
Kevin Gregg: 2.1IP, 2H, 0R, 0ER, 2BB, 1SO, 0HR
Greg Jones: 2.0IP, 3H, 1R, 0ER, 0BB, 0SO, 0HR
Chris Bootcheck: 1.0IP, 2H, 1R, 1ER, 0BB, 0SO, 0HR

Webb's One-Hit Wonder

(Win Probability Graph by Fangraphs)

St. Louis Pitching:
Jason Marquis: 7.0IP, 6H, 3R, 3ER, 3BB, 4SO, 1HR - Loss
Adam Wainwright: 1.0IP, 0H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 0SO, 0HR

Arizona Pitching:
Brandon Webb: 9.0IP, 1H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 5SO, 0HR - Win

This is the same Arizona Diamondbacks club that had the no-hitter thrown against them earlier in the week. This time, Brandon Webb was one hit and 2 errors away from perfection. When it comes time to award the 2006 NL Cy Young award Webb is going to be right on top of a short list.

Gustavo Breaks the Halo's Winning Streak

(Win Probability Graphing by Fangraphs)

Toronto Pitching:
Gustavo Chacin: 7.0IP, 6H, 1R, 1ER, 2BB, 3SO, 0HR - Win
Brandon League: 1.0IP, 0H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 1SO, 0HR - Hold
BJ Ryan: 1.0IP, 0H, 0R, 0ER, 2BB, 1SO, 0HR - Save

Los Angeles Angels Pitching:
Kelvim Escobar: 7.0IP, 9H, 2R, 2ER, 1BB, 5SO, 0HR - Loss
Brendan Donnelly: 1.0IP, 1H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 1SO, 0HR
Hector Carrasco: 1.0IP, 0H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 1SO, 0HR

I took this one in from the third base side. It's always nice to physically watch the delivery in person for a game as well pitched as this one. Low scoring, and very well pitched by both starters. That's my kind of game. Chacin's mechanics were fascinating as he just seems to muscle the ball over in one fluid motion with his left hand from his knee to the plate. He rarely cracked 90 on the radar gun and was bit wild in the zone. The faster his pitches got, the higher they came over in the strike zone. Which seems to flirt with getting hit hard. But he's not afraid to put that defense behind him to work as the ball was frequently hit into play and it worked out for him in this one.

Gustavo Chacin was simply more efficient with is pitches and could have gone all the way as he lasted 7 complete with less than 90 pitches thrown versus Escobar's 100+ thrown over 7 complete. Escobar has great control and ultimately fell victim to poor run support from the Angel's offense. The new batting order for the Halos had me scratching my head. I understand that Quinlan hits left handed pitchers well, but playing him instead of Izturis seems like a steep trade-off to me.

Moyer Defeats Olsen

(Win Probability Graphing by Fangraphs)

Philadelphia Pitching:
Jamie Moyer: 8.0IP, 5H, 1R, 1ER, 0BB, 4SO, 0HR - Win
Tom Gordon: 1.0IP, 1H, 1R, 1ER, 0BB, 1SO, 0HR - Save

Florida Pitching:
Scott Olsen: 7.2IP, 8H, 3R, 3ER, 2BB, 7SO, 2HR - Loss
Taylor Tankersley: 0.1IP, 0H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 1SO, 0HR
Joe Borowski: 1.0IP, 0H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 0SO, 0HR

Jamie Moyer deftly out pitched the hot rookie starter from Miami. I think Moyer is at his best against these young, rookie-heavy clubs as he uses his control (no walks allowed) to use the opposing hitters lack of patience against them.

Blue Jays @ Angels

Here's another matchup I'll be paying attention to for September 9:

Gustavo Chacin (7-3) TOR vs. Kelvim Escobar (10-12) LAA

I'll actually be sitting along the third base side at the Big A to watch this one. Chacin in particular is one starting pitcher I've wanted to see as I expect him to have a breakout year if he can stay healthy. His control is a bit off this year as he's averaging about one walk for every two innings pitched. That's way up from his rookie year last year. I'll be looking to see if he gets his control working for him against the Angels.

Fillies @ Phlorida

I'll definitely be tracking this matchup on Friday, September 8:

Jamie Moyer (7-13) PHI vs. Scott Olsen (12-7) FLA

Lefty versus lefty. Veteran versus rookie. Two teams in the same division with a clear shot at the Wild Card. This one looks promising.

Those Marlins Rookie Starting Pitchers

So Anibal Sanchez pitched a no-hitter yesterday. It's going to be hard to keep Anibal Sanchez off the radar now. And there hasn't been nearly enough press on just how amazing these rookie starters have been for Florida this year.

(Win Probability Graph by Fangraphs)

Arizona Pitching:
Edgar Gonzalez: 6.0IP, 5H, 2R, 2ER, 2BB, 5SO, 2HR - Loss
Tony Pena: 1.0IP, 0H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 0SO, 0HR
Juan Cruz: 1.0IP, 0H, 0R, 0ER, 1BB, 3SO, 0HR

Florida Pitching:
Anibal Sanchez: 9.0IP, 0H, 0R, 0ER, 4BB, 6SO, 0HR - Win

Florida goes to 70-69 on this game. They were once 20 games under .500 earlier this year and now have a realistic shot at that Wild Card berth. And even though I'm pulling for Philladelphia to pull this one off it would be hard to be upset to see these Fish swim all the way up stream on performances like this.

After the full fire sale over the last season I looked at the Marlins and this cast of unknowns and expected to see Dontrelle Willis as the only bright light in that starting rotation. Well, the D-Train is a bit off of his Cy Young caliber numbers from last year and these rookies are impressive:

Josh Johnson. With a 2.99 ERA this season - that's third best in the majors! I'm surpirsed he isn't the one to pull off the no-hitter this year.
Scott Olsen. With 12 wins on 26 starts I've actually bumped Barry Zito off my fantasy roster to carry this guy full-time.
Ricky Nolasco. Another double-digit win rookie starter. With young lions like these in the rotation this team is a viable threat should they make the playoffs.

Teahen Ends his Season Early

(Mark Teahen batting average graph by Fangraphs)

One of the bright stars to emerge late in the Kansas City Royals season will have season ending surgery on his shoulder and miss the final 22 games. With KC well out of any kind of contention I hope that this move will preserve this promising career and pay dividends in the years ahead. Teahen was an exciting addition to my fantasy team this year and he leaves a big power hole at third base.

If Teahen comes back healthy next year along with David DeJesus and Zack Grienke there should be some good ball played in KC.

Phillies Beat the Astros!

Scoring just two runs is typical of the kind of run support the Rocket can expect from these no-bat Astros.

Houston Pitching:
Roger Clemens: 5.0IP, 1H, 1R, 1ER, 2BB, 6SO, 0HR - ND
Russ Springer: 1.0IP, 1H, 1R, 1ER, 0BB, 0SO, 1HR
Dan Wheeler: 1.1IP, 1H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 1SO, 0HR
Trever Miller: 0.2IP, 0H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 1SO, 0HR
Chad Qualls: 1.0IP, 1H, 0R, 0ER, 2BB, 1SO, 0HR
Dave Borkowski: 0.2IP, 1H, 1R, 1ER, 0BB, 0SO, 1HR - Loss

Philadelphia Pitching:
Cole Hamels: 8.0IP, 3H, 2R, 2ER, 0BB, 8SO, 2HR - ND
Ryan Madson: 0.1IP, 1H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 0SO, 0HR
Matt Smith: 0.2IP, 0H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 1SO, 0HR
Rick White: 1.0IP, 1H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 1SO, 0HR - Win

With 8 innings pitched and 8 strikeouts I'd say Hamels handily out pitched and out lasted the "senior circuit." With all due respect to the talent on that Houston team, the Astros are a franchise I really don't care for. Bad ballpark, bad history and currently bad bats. So any Astros defeat is savored at Leather, Runs and Repeat. Especially when it helps the Phillies with that Wild Card (and staves off an Astros repeat of that same berth).

Moyer Makes His Home Philly Debut

(Win Probability Graph by Fangraphs)

So Jamie Moyer made his first home start with the Phils in the first game of a double-header and pitched well enough to win. But came away with a no decision in a game that went to the Phillies and ultimately helped Philadelphia's drive toward that the Wild Card berth. The home run ball only bit Jamie twice in that tiny ballpark and any start that reaches into the 8th inning with only three runs allowed is the definition of a "quality start."

Atlanta Pitching:
Tim Hudson: 7.0IP, 6H, 6R, 6ER, 2BB, 4SO, 3HR - ND
Macay McBride: 0.2IP, 1H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 0SO, 0HR
Peter Moylan: 0.1IP, 0H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 1SO, 0HR
Bob Wickman: 0.1IP, 3H, 2R, 2ER, 1BB, 0SO, 0HR - L (Blown Save)

Philadelphia Pitching:
Jamie Moyer: 7.1IP, 6H, 3R, 3ER, 2BB, 3SO, 2HR - ND
Ryan Madson: 0.2IP, 3H, 3R, 3ER, 0BB, 0SO, 0HR - Hold
Fabio Castro: 0.1IP, 1H, 1R, 1ER, 1BB, 0SO, 1HR - Blown Save
Geoff Geary: 0.2IP, 0H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 0SO, 0HR - Win

In the other half of the double header the Phillies lost despite an excellent start by Bret Myers. The continued absence of Flash Gordon as the closer along with the inconsistency of the closing committee of Arthur Rhodes, Ryan Madson and Fabio Castro is troubling.Next, the Phillies take on another team with Wild Card ambitions as they host the Houston Astros. And the matchup going on at the moment of this writing is an intriguing duel of great pitching of the past against great pitching of the future: Roger Clemens (6-4) HOU vs. Cole Hamels (7-7) PHI. (Currently scoreless in the third).

D-Rays Turn the Triple Play

I've been watching replays of the triple play the Devil Rays turned in the first inning against the Mariners on 9/2/2006. What an excellent defensive feat! Apparently this is the first ever strike-out, throw-out, throw-out turned from catcher to shortstop and back to catcher again (2-6-2). Nice work by catcher Dionar Navarro. As is often the case with the triple play that last out is a gift of extremely poor base running. Though I wasn't impressed with Adrian Beltre's steal attempt on the second out either.

It seems like every triple play I've seen involves the Mariners (they've hit into nine over franchise history) and I don't recall ever seeing them on the good end. At least they took the 4-3 victory at the end of this game.

(Win Probability Graphing by Fangraphs)

September Baseball

(Phil Nevin season batting Average graph by Fangraphs)

I can't believe it's September already. This is the month when those Wild Card races appeal to my insatiable underdog appetite. Go Twins and Phillies!

Phil Nevin has worn more than his share of team uniforms this year. It would be nice if his bat could make the difference for Minnesota through this last month. I'm optimistic yet skeptical.