3 Picks: Three more from the Junior Circuit

Wednesday, July 4: Johan Santana (9-6)(MIN) vs. Mike Mussina (4-5)(NYY)

Yankee Stadium has been unkind to the Minnesota Twins in recent years. They pull out the ace as they look to put a blanket on the Bombers offense in this one.

Twins 6, Yankees 2

(Win Probability graphing by Fangraphs)
Twins player of the game: (SP) Johan Santana - WPA +.190
7.0IP, 4H, 2R, 2ER, 2BB, 5SO, 1HR
Twins lowest contributor: (C) Mike Redmond - WPA -.096
0/4, 0R, 0HR, 0RBI, 0BB, 0SO

Yankees player of the game: (LF) Hideki Matsui - WPA +.097
1/3, 1R, 1HR, 1RBI, 1BB, 1SO
Yankees lowest contributor: (SP) Mike Mussina - WPA -.207
6.0IP, 5H, 4R, 3ER, 0BB, 5SO, 1HR

Johan Santana: 7.0IP, 4H, 2R, 2ER, 2BB, 5SO, 1HR - W
Pat Neshek: 1.0IP, 0H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 2SO, 0HR - H

Mike Mussina: 6.0IP, 5H, 4R, 3ER, 0BB, 5SO, 1HR - L

When Mike Mussina was chased from the top of the seventh inning by a two-run blast by Jason Kubel I had a flash of the Yankee-hater come over me. I admire the talent on that team, but the habit of rooting against the pinstripes is so deeply ingrained that I can only feel pleasure when someone gets the big hit against them like that. Pat Neshek's campaign to have Yankee fans vote for him to go to the All-Star game probably stalled out when he struck out two Yanks for the hold. I voted for Pat. He's pitching at an All-Star caliber. And he blogs. Vote for Pat.

Thursday, July 5: CC Sabathia (12-2)(CLE) vs. Justin Verlander (9-3)(DET)

Do not adjust your monitor. Captain Cheeseburger is indeed 12-2 so far this year. That might have something to do with Cleveland's insurgence in the AL Central this year. And with the Tigers throwing their Rookie of the Year and one-time no-hit pitcher at them they're looking to make up some ground against these Indians.

Indians 3, Tigers 12

(Win Probability graphing by Fangraphs)
Indians player of the game: (C) Victor Martinez - WPA +.120
2/3, 1R, 1HR, 2RBI, 0BB, 0SO
Indians lowest contributor of the game: (SP) CC Sabathia - WPA -.442
4.0IP, 10H, 7R, 7ER, 1BB, 3SO, 3HR

Tigers player of the game: (2B) Placido Polanco - WPA +.213
3/5, 3R, 1HR, 1RBI, 0BB, 0SO
Tigers lowest contributor of the game: (LF) Craig Monroe - WPA -.050
1/5, 0R, 0HR, 1RBI, 0BB, 1SO

CC Sabathia: 4.0IP, 10H, 7R, 7ER, 1BB, 3SO, 3HR - L

Justin Verlander: 7.0IP, 6H, 3R, 2ER, 0BB, 7SO, 1HR - W

12 wins or not, when you get rocked for 7 earned runs, 3 homers and 10 hits in just four innings of work you can charitably be said to be "not fooling anyone today." An uncharacteristically bad start for Class Clown Sabathia - and it came against exactly the division rival the Tribe needs to beat to open up some distance in the division race.

Friday, July 6: Jeremy Guthrie (4-2)(BAL) vs. Kameron Loe (5-6)(TEX)

We'll see if young Jeremy Guthrie's 2.63 ERA survives the cozy hitting confines of the Ballpark at Arlington.

Orioles 3, Rangers 4 (10)

(Win Probability graphing by Fangraphs)
Orioles player of the game: (2B) Brian Roberts - WPA +.404
1/3, 1R, 0HR, 1RBI, 2BB, 0SO
Orioles lowest contributor: (RP) Paul Shuey - WPA -.357
0.1IP, 2H, 1R, 1ER, 1BB, 0SO, 0HR

Rangers player of the game: (SP) Kameron Loe
6.0IP, 5H, 0R, 0ER, 3BB, 3SO, 0HR
Rangers lowest contributor: (RP) Eric Gagne - WPA -.189
1.0IP, 3H, 1R, 1ER, 0BB, 1SO, 0HR

Jeremy Guthrie: 6.0IP, 5H, 3R, 3ER, 3BB, 3SO, 1HR - ND
Paul Shuey: 0.1IP, 2H, 1R, 1ER, 1BB, 0SO, 0HR - L

Kameron Loe: 6.0IP, 5H, 0R, 0ER, 3BB, 3SO, 0HR - ND
CJ Wilson: 0.2IP, 1H, 2R, 2ER, 2BB, 0SO, 0HR - H
Frank Francisco: 1.1IP, 0H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 1SO, 0HR - H
Eric Gagne: 1.0IP, 3H, 1R, 1ER, 0BB, 1SO, 0HR - BS
Joaquin Benoit: 1.0IP, 0H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 0SO, 0HR - W

Only 1 home run in all 10 innings at that tiny ballpark. Interesting. And it comes down to a battle of bad bullpens in extra frames with a blown save and a win going to the same team. Interesting.