Thursday, July 26, 2007

3 Picks: So Good to See Jon Lester Back and Healthy


Friday, July 27: Nate Robertson (6-7)(DET) vs. Jered Weaver (6-5)(LAA)

I'm surprised to see Nate at 6-7. He was one of the Tigers' under-rated arms in that stellar rotation last year. Likewise, Jered Weaver is a bit off his outstanding rookie numbers from a year ago as well.
Tigers 6, Angels 11
(Win Probability graphing by Fangraphs)
Tigers player of the game: (2B) Placido Polanco - WPA +.174
5/5, 2R, 1HR, 1RBI, 0BB, 0SO
Tigers lowest contributor: (SP) Nate Robertson - WPA -.478
5.2IP, 10H, 8R, 8ER, 2BB, 6SO, 0HR

Angels player of the game: (CF) Gary Matthews Jr. - WPA +.173
3/4, 2R, 0HR, 3RBI, 0BB, 1SO
Angels lowest contributor of the game: (SP) Jered Weaver - WPA -.186
5.1IP, 11H, 6R, 6ER, 1BB, 3SO, 2HR

Nate Robertson: 5.2IP, 10H, 8R, 8ER, 2BB, 6SO, 0HR - L

Jered Weaver: 5.1IP, 11H, 6R, 6ER, 1BB, 3SO, 2HR - W
Justin Speier: 1.2IP, 1H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 2SO, 0HR - H

This was a surprisingly poorly pitched game for both starters. Ultimately, it was the Angels' offense that helped pick up Weaver's 11-hit, 6-run effort to give him the win.

Saturday, July 28: Jon Lester (1-0)(BOS) vs. James Shields (8-6)(TB)

What does the fantasy team owner do when they have both of these starters on their roster? Shields had his worst start ever against the Yankees last time out and needs to get back on track as the D-Rays ace. And Jon Lester's return from battling cancer is one of the more inspiring stories this season.
Red Sox 12, Devil Rays 6 (12)
(Win Probability graphing by Fangraphs)
Red Sox player of the game: (SS) Julio Lugo - WPA +.519
2/5, 2R, 0HR, 2RBI, 2BB, 2SO
Red Sox lowest contributor: (RP) Jonathan Papelbon - WPA -.403
1.0IP, 2H, 2R, 2ER, 0BB, 1SO, 1HR

Devil Rays player of the game: (LF) Jonny Gomes - WPA +.432
2/5, 2R, 2HR, 3RBI, 0BB, 1SO
Devil Rays lowest contributor: (RP) Brian Stokes - WPA -.343
0.2IP, 1H, 4R, 4ER, 3BB, 0SO, 0HR

Jon Lester: 6.2IP, 6H, 4R, 4ER, 1BB, 3SO, 2HR - ND
Julian Tavarez: 0.1IP, 0H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 0SO, 0HR - H
Hideki Okajima: 1.0IP, 1H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 1SO, 0HR - H
Jonathan Papelbon: 1.0IP, 2H, 2R, 2ER, 0BB, 1SO, 1HR - BS
Kyle Snyder: 2.0IP, 1H, 0R, 0ER, 1BB, 2SO, 0HR - W

James Shields: 5.0IP, 6H, 3R, 3ER, 1BB, 7SO, 0HR - ND
Brian Stokes: 0.2IP, 1H, 4R, 4ER, 3BB, 0SO, 0HR - L

So what does the fantasy league manager who started both Jon Lester and James Shields get from this game? Bubkus. Two no decisions and 5.40 ERA's from each starter as this game went toward the wee hours of extra frames before the D-Rays bullpen finally blew out. At least with the Yankees losing again today this helps to widen the gap with New York.

Sunday, July 29: Daisuke Matsuzaka (12-7)(BOS) vs. Scott Kazmir (7-7)(TB)

Dice-K versus Scott-K in Tampa Bay. Oh yeah.
Red Sox 2, Devil Rays 5
(Win Probability graphing by Fangraphs)
Red Sox player of the game: (SP) Daisuke Matsuzaka - WPA +.165
6.1IP, 8H, 2R, 2ER, 1BB, 6SO, 1HR
Red Sox lowest contributor: (DH) David Ortiz - WPA -.198
0/4, 0R, 0HR, 0RBI, 0BB, 1SO

Devil Rays player of the game: (SP) Scott Kazmir - WPA +.363
6.0IP, 6H, 0R, 0ER, 1BB, 8SO, 0HR
Devil Rays lowest contributor: (DH) Greg Norton - WPA -.110
0/4, 0R, 0HR, 0RBI, 0BB, 0SO
Daisuke Matsuzaka: 6.1IP, 8H, 2R, 2ER, 1BB, 6SO, 1HR - L

Scott Kazmir: 6.0IP, 6H, 0R, 0ER, 1BB, 8SO, 0HR - ND
Gary Glover: 2.1IP, 2H, 2R, 2ER, 1BB, 3SO, 2HR - W

I find it peculiar that the pitcher who allows nearly one home run per inning pitched comes away with the win while Matsuzaka gets charged with the loss despite pitching very well.

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