Tuesday, July 17, 2007

3 Picks: Pulled into Red Sox Nation


Wednesday, July 18: John Maine (10-5)(NYM) vs. Greg Maddux (7-7)(SD)

The Mets' great hurler of right now squares off against one of history's greatest pitchers. And they do it in the pitching friendly confines of Petco Park.
Mets 5, Padres 5
(Win Probability graphing by Fangraphs)
Mets player of the game: (3B) David Wright - WPA +.283
1/4, 1R, 1HR, 3RBI, 0BB, 1SO
Mets lowest contributor: (RP) Joe Smith - WPA -.254
0.2IP, 2H, 1R, 1ER, 1BB, 1SO, 0HR

Padres player of the game: (2B) Geoff Blum - WPA +.273
2/3, 0R, 0HR, 1RBI, 1BB, 0SO
Padres lowest contributor: (RP) Scott Linebrink WPA -.316
1.0IP, 1H, 3R, 3ER, 2BB, 0SO, 1HR

John Maine: 6.0IP, 7H, 4R, 4ER, 2BB, 5SO, 2HR - ND
Joe Smith: 0.2IP, 2H, 1R, 1ER, 1BB, 1SO, 0HR - L

Greg Maddux: 5.0IP, 4H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 6SO, 0HR - ND
Heath Bell: 0.2IP, 0H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 0SO, 0HR - H
Scott Linebrink: 1.0IP, 1H, 3R, 3ER, 2BB, 0SO, 1HR - BS, W
Trevor Hoffman: 1.0IP, 0H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 1SO, 0HR - SV

With the Mets' starting pitching something like "John Maine, then pray for rain" it hurts when they don't get a victory on days when he starts. I've always felt it was an odd anomaly that a pitcher can blow a save yet record a win as Scott Linebrink does in this game. Of all the pitchers the Padres used in this game, he's the one who contributed the least toward this victory even as he gets the credit for it.

Thursday, July 19: Javier Vazquez (6-5)(CHW) vs. Daisuke Matsuzaka (11-6)(BOS)

The gyro-ball saga takes a turn toward the laundry with a battle of the Sox. Bring plenty of fabric softener as these guys both throw pretty hard.
White Sox 4, Red Sox 2
(Win Probability graphing by Fangraphs)
White Sox player of the game: (RP) Ryan Bukvich - WPA +.286
1.2IP, 1H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 1SO, 0HR
White Sox lowest contributor: (3B) Josh Fields - WPA -.144
0/4, 0R, 0HR, 0RBI, 0BB, 1SO

Red Sox player of the game: (RP) Manny Delcarmen - WPA +.154
1.0IP, 1H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 1SO, 0HR
Red Sox lowest contributor: (SP) Daisuke Matsuzaka - WPA -.201
5.0IP, 2H, 3R, 3ER, 6BB, 6SO, 0HR

Javier Vazquez: 6.1IP, 9H, 2R, 2ER, 2BB, 5SO, 0HR - W
Ryan Bukvich: 1.2IP, 1H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 1SO, 0HR - H
Bobby Jenks: 1.0IP, 0H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 1SO, 0HR - SV

Daisuke Matsuzaka: 5.0IP, 2H, 3R, 3ER, 6BB, 6SO, 0HR - L

This says it all.

Friday, July 20: Jose Contreras (5-11)(CHW) vs. Josh Beckett (12-3)(BOS)

Jose Contreras is 5-11? That sums up the slide of the Chicago White Sox right there when someone of Contreras talent and ability is underachieving at that magnitude. At the other end of the magnitude toward pitching above expectations is Josh Beckett. While Dice-K is the story of the year in the American League it's actually Beckett that keeps me glued to more Red Sox games.
White Sox 3, Red Sox 10
(Win Probability graphing by Fangraphs)
White Sox player of the game: (DH) Jim Thome - WPA +.181
1/3, 1R, 1HR, 3RBI, 1BB, 1SO
White Sox lowest contributor: (SP) Jose Contreras - WPA -.374
7.1IP, 10H, 10R, 10ER, 3BB, 2SO, 1HR

Red Sox player of the game: (CF) Coco Crisp - WPA +.185
1/5, 1R, 0HR, 3RBI, 0BB, 2SO
Red Sox lowest contributor: (2B) Dustin Pedroia - WPA -.089
1/5, 0R, 0HR, 0RBI, 0BB, 0SO
Jose Contreras: 7.1IP, 10H, 10R, 10ER, 3BB, 2SO, 1HR - L

Josh Beckett: 6.0IP, 4H, 3R, 3ER, 2BB, 10SO, 1HR - W
Mike Timlin: 1.0IP, 0H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 1SO, 0HR - H
Hideki Okajima: 1.0IP, 0H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 0SO, 0HR - H

Beckett helps right the ship for the Red Sox. But he had a little help from Contreras giving up 10 earned runs.

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