Pythagorean Win % Projections - AL West

The AL West division is the one I feel closest to, even if my current geography is somewhat remote to that region. Go Mariners.

	AL West - Projections as of July 30, 2007
	projected final record based on win%
1	Los Angeles Angels	.587	95 - 67
2	Seattle Mariners	.558	90 - 72
3	Oakland Athletics	.462	75 - 87
4	Texas Rangers	.438	71 - 91

	AL West - Projections as of July 30, 2007
	projected final record based on Pythagorean Win%
1	Los Angeles Angels	.553	90 - 72
2	Seattle Mariners	.508	82 - 80
3	Oakland Athletics	.501	81 - 81
4	Texas Rangers	.452	73 - 89

Unfortunately, the Seattle Mariners are currently performing well above their Pythagorean projection and are probably headed for a correction if they continue to score and allow runs at their current rate. After running these numbers for all the divisions in the majors it looks like the Yankees will be in the Wild Card race for the remainder of the season and will probably weasel their way into the post season via that berth. But with the M's just 3 games behind the Angels at this point I can hope against probability for now.

Pythagorean Win % Projections - AL East

Here's a look at the current Pythagorean Win % projections for the AL East as of July 29. First, here's the current win percentage projections:

	AL East - Projections as of July 29, 2007
	projected final record based on win%
1	Boston Red Sox	.615	100 - 62
2	New York Yankees	.529	86 - 76
3	Toronto Blue Jays	.495	80 - 82
4	Baltimore Orioles	.476	77 - 85
5	Tampa Bay Devil Rays	.369	60 - 102

And here's the Pythagorean Win % projections:

	AL East - Projections as of July 29, 2007
	projected final record based on Pythagorean Win%
1	Boston Red Sox	.623	101 - 61
2	New York Yankees	.597	97 - 65
3	Toronto Blue Jays	.526	85 - 77
4	Baltimore Orioles	.514	83 - 79
5	Tampa Bay Devil Rays	.363	59 - 103

A couple of interesting things emerge from these projections. The Pythagorean projections show no change in the current division standings from the current state. And with the exception of the Tampa Bay Devil Rays, all the AL East teams are currently under performing their Pythagorean win rate. But with the Yankees projected to win 97 games at their current ratio of runs scored versus runs allowed they actually have a better chance at passing the Cleveland Indians for the Wild Card Berth than I would have thought (or wished).

Pythagorean Win % Projections - AL Central

Let's have a look at the Pythagorean Win% Projections for the toughest division in the major leagues: the AL Central. Like last year, I think winning just 90 games won't be good enough for even a wild card. And it seems likely that the wild card will come from this division.

Here's the current standings and projected final record based on current rate of wins:

	AL Central - Projections as of July 11, 2007
	projected final record based on win%
1	Detroit Tigers	.605	98 - 64
2	Cleveland Indians	.591	96 - 66
3	Minnesota Twins	.511	83 - 79
4	Chicago White Sox	.453	73 - 89
5	Kansas City Royals	.432	70 - 92

And the Pythagorean projection:

	AL Central - Projections as of July 11, 2007
	projected final record based on Pythagorean Win%
1	Detroit Tigers	.603	98 - 64
2	Cleveland Indians	.559	91 - 71
3	Minnesota Twins	.540	87 - 75
4	Kansas City Royals	.462	75 - 87
5	Chicago White Sox	.422	68 - 94

There's no change at the top of the division in this model. The Tigers - and their amazing offense - has them projected to continue at their current pace. The only surprise is at the bottom where this formula predicts the White Sox sinking below even the lowly Royals. That would definitely be the end of Ozzie Guillen if that happens.

Pythagorean Win % Projections - NL West

Here are the current win projections for the NL West with data through July 3:

	NL West - Projections as of July 3, 2007
	projected final record based on win%
1	San Diego Padres	.573	93 - 69
2	Los Angeles Dodgers	.571	93 - 69
3	Arizona Diamondbacks	.553	90 - 72
4	Colorado Rockies	.488	79 - 83
5	San Francisco Giants	.432	70 - 92

And the Pythagorean Win % projections:

	NL West - Projections as of July 3, 2007
	projected final record based on Pythagorean Win%
1	San Diego Padres	.610	99 - 63
2	Los Angeles Dodgers	.550	89 - 73
3	San Francisco Giants	.509	82 - 82
4	Colorado Rockies	.477	77 - 85
5	Arizona Diamondbacks	.476	77 - 85

The only real surprise is just how far above the Pythagorean Win formula the Arizona Diamondbacks are performing - suggesting that they are due for a major correction in the second half of the season. The flip side of that is that the San Francisco Giants are currently well under their projections and will probably improve down the stretch.

Pythagorean Win % Projections - NL East

Here's the Pythagorean Win % Projections for the NL East division. I've been pulling for the Phillies this year - but they've been allowing more runs than they've scored. Which means they're lucky to be over .500. But they can't expect to stay at that mark unless they tighten up for the rest of the year.

	NL East - Projections as of July 1, 2007
	projected final record based on win%
1	New York Mets	.575	93 - 69
2	Atlanta Braves	.524	85 - 77
3	Philadelphia Phillies	.512	83 - 79
4	Flordia Marlins	.463	75 - 87
5	Washington Nationals	.407	66 - 96

	NL East - Projections as of July 1, 2007
	projected final record based on Pythagorean Win%
1	New York Mets			.564		91 - 71
2	Atlanta Braves			.502		81 - 81
3	Philadelphia Phillies			.490		79 - 83
4	Florida Marlins			.464		75 - 87
5	Washington Nationals			.364		59 - 103

The interesting thing about these projection is that it shows no change in the current standings and only a correction downward for all teams except for Florida.

Pythagorean Win % Projections - NL Central

I like to run Pythagorean Win % Projections in mid season because it's a good indicator of which teams have been lucky so far and which teams are due for a correction unless they find a way to dramatically improve their ratio of runs scored to runs allowed. And I'm starting with the NL Central Division because it's a quirky one this year. The Milwaukee Brewers - a team that hasn't had a season over .500 since 1992 (back when they were in the AL East) - are currently at the top of the division as the only team out of 6 with a winning record so far. All their plum draft picks over the lean years seem to be paying dividends this season. At this point, I think the odds favor them to take the division title.

	NL Central - Projections as of June 28, 2007
	projected final record based on win%
1	Milwaukee Brewers	.590	96 - 66
2	Chicago Cubs	.494	80 - 82
3	St. Louis Cardinals	.453	73 - 89
4	Pittsburgh Pirates	.423	69 - 93
5	Houston Astros	.410	66 - 96
6	Cincinnati Reds	.380	62 - 100

And here is the Pythagorean Win % projection:

	NL Central - Projections as of June 28, 2007
	projected final record based on Pythagorean Win%
1	Milwaukee Brewers		.553	90 - 72
2	Chicago Cubs		.541	88 - 74
3	Cincinnati Reds		.446	72 - 90
4	Houston Astros		.437	71 - 91
5	Pittsburgh Pirates		.412	67 - 95
6	St. Louis Cardinals		.403	65 - 97

This projection shows no change in the top two spots - though it does suggest a tighter race forming between the Brewers and Cubs with Chicago due for an improved record down the stretch as Milwaukee fades somewhat. The 3 - 6 slots are flipped from their current standings with the Pythagorean Win Percentage showing the defending World Champion Cardinals headed for last place. It should be interesting to see if the Cubs can pull over .500 by the end of the season. Though I don't think an 88 - 74 record would be good enough to make them a factor in the Wild Card race. It looks like the Brew-Crew is for real this year and poised to be a factor in the playoffs.