Monday, May 21, 2007

3 picks: When there's no Dice-K... turn to the NL

Tuesday, May 22: Cole Hamels (6-1)(PHI) vs. Scott Olsen (3-3)(FLA)

Cole Hamels has been impressive this year. And he's only getting more confident.(Win Probability graphing by Fangraphs)
Cole Hamels: 6.0IP, 6H, 5R, 5ER, 3BB, 8SO, 0HR - L

Scott Olsen: 6.0IP, 4H, 3R, 3ER, 3BB, 6SO, 2HR - W
Renyel Pinto: 1.0IP, 0H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 2SO, 0HR - H
Kevin Gregg: 1.0IP, 0H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 1SO, 0HR - SV

Kevin Gregg is closing games for the fish? Really? He seemed pretty underwhelming with the Angels last year. Olsen gets the win despite giving up 2 home runs. Though I understand he threw a good hissy fit on the mound just before the Marlins took the lead.

Wednesday, May 23: Chris Capuano (5-2)(MIL) vs. Brad Penny (5-1)(LAD)

As of today (May 21), both these teams sit in first place in their respective divisions. Of course, the Brewers meet the lower standards of the NL Central of just being the only team over .500. But the defending world series champions weren't that far over the glass-half-full mark when they won it all last year.(Win Probability graphing by Fangraphs)
Chris Capuano: 4.0IP, 8H, 4R, 4ER, 0BB, 4SO, 0HR - L

Brad Penny: 7.0IP, 6H, 0R, 0ER, 2BB, 4SO, 0HR - W

Those starting pitcher lines tell the story. Not a good outing for Capuano. Penny was pitching like an ace.

Thursday, May 24: Tom Glavine (5-1)(NYM) vs. John Smoltz (6-2)(ATL)

Two old-timers with winning records... and the press will make a lot of noise about them being former team-mates.(Win Probability graphing by Fangraphs)
Tom Glavine: 6.0IP, 5H, 2R, 2ER, 2BB, 2SO, 1HR - L

John Smoltz: 7.0IP, 7H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 5SO, 0HR - W
Rafael Soriano: 1.0IP, 0H, 0R, 0ER, 1BB, 1SO, 0HR - H
Bob Wickman: 1.0IP, 1H, 1R, 0ER, 0BB, 0SO, 0HR - SV

This is the way I like games pitched - tight, low scoring games. Though I can't say I was rooting for the home team in this one. It's hard to begrudge Smoltz his victory when he clearly out pitched Glavine in this one.

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