It's Fantasy Time!

Only 36 days until opening day!

With spring training games just around the corner the familiar giddiness of the anticipated season ahead is starting to kick in. After spending the last two seasons taking in the games from Southern California it will be interesting to observe things from the East Coast this year.

Last year was my first foray into fantasy baseball. It's a great way to follow individual performances of players from all 30 teams and I learned a lot. Now with all my rookie-drafting mistakes behind me I've decided to manage three teams this season and try out three different variations on the fantasy rules and presentation.

Well, the draft for my public, head-to-head league at MLB.com has come and gone. And I've got Ryan Howard at first! The 2006 NL MVP and 2005 Rookie of the Year was my #2 most sought player and it seemed unlikely that I could land him with only the seventh pick overall. My other "super star" player would have to be Carl Crawford. Well, he would be a super star if he played in a larger market (or for a better team).

Here's the team: OrixBlueWave

Catcher: Brian McCann (ATL) bench - Ronny Paulino (PIT)
First Base: Ryan Howard (PHI)
Second Base: Luis Castillo (MIN) bench - Aaron Hill (TOR)
Third Base: Adrian Beltre (SEA) bench - Mark Teahen (KC)
Shortstop: Carlos Guillen (DET) bench - Aaron Hill (TOR)
Outfield: Carl Crawford (TB) bench - Chris Duffy (PIT)
Outfield: Micheal Cuddyer (MIN) bench - Nick Markakis (BAL)
Outfield: Juan Pierre (LAD)

Pitching: Philadelphia Phillies bench - Toronto Blue Jays

MLB fantasy leagues do an interesting thing with pitching where you have to select an entire team's pitching staff as opposed to drafting individuals. As a pitching obsessed fan I was skeptical about this aspect. But it might work out for head-to-head competition where a team's overall win/loss record (and team ERA, WHIP, etc.) becomes a factor. It makes sense to pick a team one expects to win their division to maximize their pitching stats and I think this is going to be the Phillies' year. I'm thrilled to have Brett Myers, Cole Hamels, Jamie Moyer, Freddie Garcia, Tom Gordon and the rest pitching for my fantasy world. In the first week I'll be matching up against the Los Angeles Dodgers pitching staff. That could be interesting.

I expect to do extremely well with stolen bases - Pierre, Castillo and Duffy are big base stealers. Duffy's 26 stolen bases against only 1 caught stealing in just 84 games last year makes him an interesting prospect - though I'd like to see that hitting average climb a bit before making him a regular starter. The risk here is that these guys don't put up big power numbers or knock in many RBIs.

If there's an anticipated weakness it will be power at the plate as I'm relying heavily on Howard and Crawford to hit the long balls. Several players have the potential to have a big year: Guillen, Beltre, Markakis, Teahen, etc. But they are all a gamble on my part and I'm running shallow at 2nd and 3rd if these guys falter. Let's go BlueWave!

Starting Pitchers to Watch in 2007: Jeff Francis

Only 51 days until opening day.

Jeff Francis looks like a lefty on the cusp of a breakout year. He knocked his ERA down to 4.16 in his second full season in the majors. And the Bill James projection forecasts more of the same - if not better for 2007. He's become the most interesting part of what is turning into a solid rotation for the Colorado Rockies. If the bats come back around and spot a little more run support Francis will be a popular guy on the fantasy waiver wire. Personally, I'd consider drafting him.

Starting Pitchers to Watch in 2007: Chuck James

Only 52 days until opening day.

Chuck James' numbers from his rookie season in 2006 with the Braves are worthy of a double take. 11-4 with a 3.78 ERA on 18 starts, 25 appearances and 119 innings pitched. With a WHIP of 1.24 he's a fantasy baseball manager's dream. And yet there's a striking lack of buzz about this guy. The Bill James, CHONE, Marcel and ZiPS projections are positive overall - even if Bill James is the only one forecasting double-digit wins.

This guy would make a smart late-round draft pick in fantasy baseball.

Starting Pitchers to Watch in 2007: Jason Jennings

Only 53 days to opening day.

Jason Jennings only has one pitch: the sinker ball. But just knowing it's coming doesn't blunt its effectiveness. It will probably be even more effective with the move from Coors Field to Minute Maid Park. He'll probably be somewhere around his career best 3.78 ERA (212 innings of work) from last year. He was only 9-13, but the Rockies were just preparing him for the kind of run support he can expect from Houston. And as the Astros are my least favorite team it pains me to admit that this was an inspired trade to bring his sinker down to Texas.

The Bill James, CHONE, Marcel, ZiPS projections have him right around double-digit wins with some errosion on the hits allowed and ERA. I think he'll do better than that over in the NL Central Division.

This guy's another potential sleeper (I seem to be favoring those in my pre-season previews). He won't be drafted in too many fantasy leagues. I'd pick him up in a late round or put him on a watch list as he'll probably be available on waivers later in the year.

Starting Pitchers to Watch in 2007: Jaret Wright

Only 54 days until opening day.

Now hear me out on this one. I know what Jaret Wright's numbers have been these past couple of seasons. But I think there's some reason to be optimistic about his chances in '07. His 11-7 record in 2006 wasn't bad. He just wasn't the 15-8 3.28ERA starting pitcher he was in Atlanta in 2004 before the Yankees picked him up.

Here's why I'm intrigued with Wright this season:

• The move to the Baltimore Orioles reunites him with pitching coach Loe Mazzone - the same guy he worked with when he was pitching for the Braves.
• He's still pitching in the AL East. So he'll get plenty of chances to pitch against his former team and (hopefully) give those Yanks a lot of grief.
• I need to get excited about somebody pitching for my new home town team.
• Even if he lives up to the Bill James, CHONE, Marcel or ZiPS projections (Bill James has him projected with a losing record) he'll help those Orioles fly a bit higher than they did last year.
• He has a history of bouncing back from rough seasons and putting together quality outings.

In terms of fantasy baseball, he's not draft-worthy. Put him on your watch list.

Starting Pitchers to Watch in 2007: Scott Kazmir

Only 55 more days until opening day.

Continuing on a theme of left-handed pitchers who could (hopefully) give the New York Yankees a lot of grief in the season ahead I'll take a look at an obvious choice: Scott Kazmir of the Tampa Bay Devil Rays. The undisputed ace of the staff.

In 24 starts in 2006 he had a record of 10-8 with an ERA of 3.24 and an incredible 163 strikeouts in 144 and two-thirds innings of work - that's 10.14 K's per 9 innings! The Bill James, CHONE, Marcel and ZiPS projections forecast more of the same with a slight erosion of the ERA and K/9 ratio. With the unbalanced schedules being what they are he'll be fanning a lot of pinstripes.

This guy's an absolute keeper if you're lucky enough to draft him in your fantasy league.

Starting Pitchers to Watch in 2007: Gustavo Chacin

Only 56 days until opening day.

It may be too much to hope for a team other than the Yankees to take the AL East. But I'm pulling for the Toronto Blue Jays to put a good scare into the evil empire this year. They were, after all, the team that finished in second place in 2006 after Boston's dramatic melt down late in the season.

And if they do give the Bronx Bombers a good run it will because Gustavo Chacin has a break-out year as Toronto's #3 starter. Roy Halladay will - health permitting - be the ace of the staff. AJ Burnett will - health permitting - will be a solid #2 punch. The Bill James, CHONE, Marcel and ZiPS projections on Chacin aren't particularly generous. But I expect him to be closer to his 2005 numbers if he can stay away from injuries.

I wouldn't draft him in the fantasy leagues. But I would keep an eye on him and he should be good for a win against teams that struggle against lefties.