The King's Career First CG Shutout

(Win Probability Graphing by Fangraphs)

Here's another interesting game where both starters put in complete game efforts on this August 28, 2006 Angels@Mariners game.

Los Angeles Angels pitching:
Kelvim Escobar: 8.0IP, 7H, 2R, 2ER, 0BB, 9SO, 0HR - Loss

Seattle Mariners pitching:
Felix Hernandez: 9.0IP, 5H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 4SO, 0HR - Win

Not a single base on balls issued in this game. And with the dual complete efforts this one was over in under 2 hours.

This may prove to be an important start for the young King Felix as this is the first shutout of his career and should boost his confidence going forward. This is the King they'd hoped to have on the throne in Seattle at the start of the season. 4 strikeouts is low for Hernandez. But I suspect he was trusting his defense a bit more and working more efficiently than he has in the past. This could be a winning approach for years to come if he learns from this outing.

Jamie Moyer vs. the Mets

(Win Probability Graph by Fangraphs)

It was delayed by a day due to rain but Jamie Moyer recorded his second start since being traded to the Phillies as he took on the Mets and John Maine. This one did not work out in Moyer's favor:

Phillies Pitching:
Jamie Moyer: 6.0IP, 9H, 7R, 5ER, 0BB, 4SO, 0HR - Loss
Fabio Castro: 1.0IP, 1H, 1R, 1ER, 1BB, 0SO, 0HR
Matt Smith: 1.0IP, 1H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 1SO, 0HR

Mets Pitching:
John Maine: 6.1IP, 5H, 2R, 2ER, 2BB, 2SO, 1HR - Win
Roberto Hernandez: 0.2IP, 0H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 0SO, 0HR
Guillermo Mota: 1.0IP, 1H, 1R, 1ER, 0BB, 2SO, 0HR
Billy Wagner: 1.0IP, 0H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 3SO, 0HR

Moyer had his control working for him seeing how he didn't walk anybody. And it wasn't the home runs that got him. I think it was the patient bats of that potent Mets lineup that managed to take advantage of balls catching too much of the strike zone. Moyer's slow-slower-slowest strategy is designed to try the patience of hitters. Carlos Beltran, Carlos Delgado and David Wright showed patience and the success that follows when facing Moyer.

I still have high hopes for Moyer leading these Phillies to a Wild Card berth in the playoffs. We'll have to see how he fares in that itsy bitsy hitter's park they have at home when he makes his home debut with the new club.

Twins Rising

August 26 - MIN 8 @ CHW 7 -- 11 innings

Twins pitching:
Johan Santana: 7.0IP, 6H, 3R, 2ER, 1BB, 4SO, 2HR - ND
Juan Rincon: 0.1IP, 2H, 2R, 2ER, 0BB, 1SO, 1HR - Hold
Dennys Reyes: 0.0IP, 0H, 0R, 0ER, 2BB, 0SO, 0HR
Pat Neshek (pictured): 0.2IP, 0H, 0ER, 0R, 0BB, 1SO, 0HR - Hold
Joe Nathan: 1.0IP, 2H, 2R, 2ER, 0BB, 0SO, 1HR - Blown Save
Willie Eyre: 2.0IP, 1H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 0SO, 0HR - Win

White Sox pitching:
Jose Contreras: 2.2IP, 7H, 5R, 5ER, 2BB, 1SO, 0HR - ND
Brandon McCarthy: 5.1IP, 1R, 1ER, 1BB, 4SO, 1HR
Bobby Jenks: 2.0IP, 1H, 1R, 0ER, 1BB, 1SO, 0HR
Matt Thornton: 1.0IP, 2H, 1R, 1ER, 0BB, 0SO, 0HR - Loss

I expected more of a duel between these two starters. Neither one was especially sharp. But Santana managed to keep his composure despite an unusually low strikeout rate for him while Contreras couldn't make it through three innings. It seemed to me that the home plate umpire was extremely generous with the inside part of the strike zone early in this one. But he was calling his warped strike zone consistently for both teams so there were a lot of pitches pounding that inside part to back hitters away before coming back with something low and away. Eventually, that called strike zone morphed back to something normal by the end of 11 innings.

With this victory the Twins put a full game between themselves and Chicago in the AL Wild Card race. Which means they'll come out of this series at least half a game ahead. But Minnesota has also put themselves into the once seemingly unwinnable division race as Detroit has lost their last four in a row while the Twins have a four game streak working in their favor. That closes the gap on the top spot to just four games and that's less of a climb than what the Angels and Red Sox face in their respective divisions (both are 5.5 back).

Be sure to check out Pat Neshek's delivery if you get a chance. He's been an outstanding addition to that relief staff and that rapid side-arm is unreal. (And he blogs too).

(Win Probability Graph by Fangraphs)

The Improbable King

August 26: KC 2, TOR 0
Runelvys Hernandez: 9.0IP, 7H, 0R, 0ER, 1BB, 4SO, 0HR - W
Roy Halladay: 9.0IP, 4H, 2R, 2ER, 1BB, 7SO, 2HR - L

To be honest, when I saw this matchup with Runelvys squaring off against the Blue Jays' ace in Toronto I couldn't help thinking "Elvis is dead" as one would naturally expect the Jays' bats to make short work of Hernandez. I mean, this is the starting pitcher who began this season on the DL because he "lacked stamina." Improbable is the word as he found the stamina for his career first complete game shutout. This performance actually lowers his ERA to a still-ugly 6.67! (It was 7.50 going into this game). His record improves to 4-8. By any measurement this was the worst starting pitcher of the worst team in the league taking one away from a serious Cy Young contender.

Halladay also went the distance leading to a quick 2-hour & 8 minute pitchers' duel. Elvis is dead. Long live the king.

(Win Probability graph by Fangraphs)

Jamie Moyer's Philly Debut

Here's a belated look at the win probability graph from Jamie Moyer's first start with the Phillies at Chicago this past week on August 22, 2006 (courtesy of the finest destination on the web - Fangraphs):There's some poetry in Moyer recording this first win at the friendly confines - beating the very franchise he made his major league debut with back in 1986. Moyer pitched 6 complete innings, allowing 3 earned runs and also successfully picked off the speedy Juan Pierre at first base.

Moyer is quietly effective when it comes to winning. The Phillies are within 1.5 games of the top of the NL Wild Card despite their efforts to dismantle at the trading deadline. It will be interesting to see how Moyer fares against the formidable Mets and starting pitcher John Maine this Sunday.

Matchups to Watch - August 26

Three potential candidates for AL Cy Young have starts scheduled for this day.

Two of them face off against each other in Chicago: Johan Santana(15-5)MIN vs. Jose Contreras(11-6)CHW. Contreras isn't nearly as sharp as he was earlier this season while Santana has been consistent all year long. These are easily two of the most interesting pitchers to see this year. And the way the Twins have been playing I'm officially on the Minnesota bandwagon. Justin Morneau for MVP!

Meanwhile, a third strong candidate for the AL Cy Young hosts the Royals in Toronto: Runelvys Hernandez(3-8)KC vs. Roy Halladay(16-3)TOR. With a record of 46-84 going into this one Kansas City is guaranteed to see their third straight losing record and quite probably triple-digit losses for the fourth time in franchise history. One of these years the Blue Jays will finally give those spendy Boston/New York clubs a decent scare in the division race.

Goin' all out for the Rookies

Check out Nick Markakis from 08/22/2006 MIN@BAL:

3-for-4 with 3 solo home runs! That gives him 11HR for the year and raises his average to .306. On a whim I tried to rescue my flailing fantasy team by plugging him into the lineup. That worked out pretty well. As usual, Batgirl's account of that game had me cracking up out loud.

My other big move was putting the hot bat of Mark Teahen in at third base. 08/22/2006 KC@CLE he goes 4-for-4 with 2 runs scored, 2RBI, 2 stolen bases and a home run. Nice! Add in the save from rookie closer Joe Nelson and perhaps people will stop laughing at me for loading up on Royals. I'm only one David DeJesus away from going all in with the team with the worst record in the majors.

I'm starting to think these rookies are where it's at. (I know, Teahen played 130 games in 2005, so technically he's not a rookie. But he's new to me and anyone else outside the Kansas City market). So I'm plugging in that last hole in the outfield. Don't fail me Chris Duncan. That .347 bat better be for real. It's been an uphill fight to stay out of last place in fantasy league.

Jaime Moyer to Philadelphia

It seems fitting to have the inaugural post at Leather, Runs and Repeat should be about the Jaime Moyer trade. Moyer has been a favorite pitcher of mine for a long time. Partly because I came to love the game as a Mariners fan back when he was compiling more wins for that team than any other pitcher. He's a classic finesse pitcher who gets tagged with the "crafty lefty" moniker because he doesn't really have a blistering fastball in his pitch selection. A Jaime Moyer strikeout is practically the very definition of "pulling the string" as each strike in the sequence comes in slower than the last. It's satisfying to see someone succeed just by changing speeds and location.

Now Moyer and I have both left Seattle. (As much as I'd love to see that franchise do well I think they're a long way from recording another winning season.) Part of me wonders if this is part of Pat Gillick's secret plan to funnel the 2003 Mariner starting rotation over to Philadelphia. After the complete disaster of bringing Ryan Franklin over it's hard to understand why they let Gillick tie his own shoes let alone make deals for pitchers who give up a lot of home runs at pitching friendly ballparks. Ryan Franklin in particular is an extreme fly-ball pitcher who lets a lot of balls sail right out of the yard. Moving him over to that shoebox of a stadium they play in in Philadelphia led to some sadly predictable results.

Seattle's 2003 Starting Rotation (courtesy of www.fangraphs.com):

Starter	W	L	ERA	GS	CG	ShO	IP	H	HR	R	ER	BB	SO	WHIP	pLI	WPA
Total	75	58	3.92	162	8	3	1,026.1	973	133	476	447	337	653	1.28	0.94	8.66
Jamie Moyer	21	7	3.27	33	1	0	215.0	199	19	83	78	66	129	1.23	0.92	3.69
Ryan Franklin	11	13	3.57	32	2	1	212.0	199	34	93	84	61	99	1.23	0.98	1.90
Gil Meche	15	13	4.59	32	1	0	186.1	187	30	97	95	63	130	1.34	0.98	1.35
Joel Pineiro	16	11	3.78	32	3	2	211.2	192	19	94	89	76	151	1.27	0.90	1.32
Freddy Garcia	12	14	4.51	33	1	0	201.1	196	31	109	101	71	144	1.33	0.90	0.40

Moyer has struggled with the home runs allowed in recent seasons (44 of 'em in 2004. Ouch!). And his win record isn't what it used to be. But that's a product of terrible run support from a lackluster lineup. I hope Philadelphia's bats will do better for this "thinking man's pitcher." I hope he befuddles many National League hitters with that change-up.

Philadelphia stands to benefit from this trade as the 43-year old veteran brings a lot of intelligence to the game that tends to rub off on the rest of the starting rotation. As good as Cole Hamels has been lately he could be devastating if he picks up some tricks from old man Moyer. And this is a return of sorts for the Sellersville, PA native. Conversely, his absence from the Mariners pitching staff places that rotation squarely in rebuilding mode as they're giving up a substantial player for a couple of minor league arms.