Leather, Runs and Repeat

Bedard with White Sox

2009-05-31T22:51:00.000-07:00

We know that the Chicago White Sox are looking for a starting pitcher.

We know that Jake Peavy exercised his no-trade clause with regard to the ChiSox.

Now there's word that Roy Oswalt will likewise do the same.

That leaves Erik Bedard in the mix. And we can be sure that he's on the block. Two good pitching prospects were offered up for Peavy: Aaron Poreda and Clayton Richard. Two lefties. Something the M's don't have in their bullpen (the one that gave up 4 runs in an 8-9 loss to the Angels today). Interesting... Any chance of stocking the farm teams with bats while we're at it?

Bedard doesn't have a no-trade clause... right?

Bait the Fish

2009-05-27T22:06:00.000-07:00

The Mariners have given up on 2009.

The season started well enough. The games of April had that electricity that makes one want to watch baseball. Now at the end of May, the M's have fallen back toward initial expectations for the year - which were not high. At this point, the Mariners are lucky to have a pair of starting pitchers to dangle as trade bait.

What can we expect in exchange for Jarrod Washburn and Erik Bedard? Bats, please!

I'd trade them both for Hanley Ramirez. I'd even toss Yuniesky Betancourt into that deal. Any truth to the Matt Cain for Dan Uggla deal? Are the Marlins looking for starting pitching? Any way to pry away their prized shortstop?

Just a thought.

The Four Keys to Winning Your Fantasy Baseball League

2008-05-07T13:06:00.000-07:00

Few diversions appeal to the twin demons of obsession and competitiveness like fantasy baseball. After a solid yet fascinating smack-down in my first year of play I've managed to crack the code of schooling one's friends and enemies around the league. Here are the four keys to bragging rights:

1. Draft wisely

Pick the best available player. Every time. Every round. Don't worry about filling empty positions. You can always trade for a catcher if you're sitting on five top-shelf first basemen. How you draft will be the difference between working the waiver wire to defend your lead versus working the waiver wire for a miracle.

2. Pitchers are fragile things

Last year, my second round pick was Chris Carpenter. The 2005 NL Cy Young Award winner had just one start that went 6 innings with a 7.50 ERA and hasn't pitched a game since while he recovers from Tommy John elbow surgery. Very few starting pitchers (or relievers) merit a high draft pick. Judging from the number of quality pitchers still on the waiver wire it's tempting to not draft pitchers at all. Johan Santana, Jake Peavy and Brandon Webb are the elite few worthy of a draft pick. And you do need to draft a closer or two to avoid getting frozen out of the saves category. But it's also possible to pick up great pitching all through the year if one pays attention to the unexpected success stories that shape up every season. Chances are you will have a pitcher sitting in your DL slot more often than not given the way injuries plague hurlers.

Last year I drafted Brett Myers and was initially horrified as the opening day starter was converted into the team's closer. But he had value in that role and it looks as though history may repeat itself with John Smoltz - who I drafted in a late round this year - as he looks to return as the Braves' closer for the second time in his illustrious career.

3. Let the rest of the league load up on "home town" favorites

There's always at least one of these guys in every league. It's not enough to be a part of Red Sox Nation - they also want half of the roster on their fantasy team. Or they'll load up on Yankee pitching (a dubious call this season), Cubs batting or make a trade to complete their collection of Dodgers. While these are great teams, they compete in the real world against 29 other teams loaded with talent. In fantasy, you want to build a team with the best available from all 30 teams as that will beat any real world team every time. The guys who load up on their "favorites" tend to lose to players with better strategy. This is particularly true when it comes to grabbing elite, but almost "unknown" talent from small-market teams. Carl Crawford and James Shields would be super stars if they weren't Tampa Bay Rays. Kansas City starter Brian Bannister was my early sleeper pick this year. Who knew that Arizona Diamondbacks third baseman Mark Reynolds would get off to such an explosive start this year?

4. Nothing makes your team slump faster than talking trash

My head-to-head team, The Therimaniacs, is undefeated so far. They rule. They're the greatest team ever. The other guys in my league aren't even a challenge. Having said all that, I can fully expect the bats to grow cold and the pitching staff to blow a gazillion save opportunities while posting an ERA just one run over infinity.

Therimaniacs (40-19-6) after the draft:
C - Ronny Paulino (PIT)
1B - Albert Pujols (STL)
2B - Placido Polanco (DET)
3B - Garrett Atkins (COL)
SS - Carlos Guillen (DET)
OF - Ichiro Suzuki (SEA)
OF - Carlos Lee (HOU)
OF - Brad Hawpe (COL)
Util - Derrek Lee (CHC)
BN - Michael Young (SS, TEX)
BN - Nick Swisher (1B, OF, CHW)
BN - Todd Helton (1B, COL)
BN - Edgar Renteria (SS, DET)
BN - Raul Ibanez (OF, SEA)
BN - Mike Napoli (C, LAA)

SP - John Smoltz (ATL)
SP - Rich Hill (CHC)
SP - Dontrelle Willis (DET)
RP - Rafael Soriano (ATL)
RP - Todd Jones (DET)
RP - Rafael Betancourt (CLE)

Therimaniacs (40-19-6) as of today:
C - Mike Napoli (LAA)
1B - Albert Pujols (STL)
2B - Placido Polanco (DET)
3B - Garrett Atkins (COL)
SS - Erick Aybar (LAA)
OF - Ichiro Suzuki (SEA)
OF - Carlos Lee (HOU)
OF - Raul Ibanez (SEA)
Util - Derrek Lee (CHC)
BN - Carlos Guillen (1B, 3B, SS, DET)
BN - Jose Lopez (2B, SEA)
BN - Michael Young (SS, TEX)
BN - Evan Longoria (3B, TB)

SP - Cliff Lee (CLE)
SP - Micah Owings (ARI)
SP - Scott Olsen (FLA)
RP - C.J. Wilson (TEX)
RP - Brandon Lyon (ARI)
RP - Kerry Wood (CHC)
RP - Todd Jones (DET)
BN - Joba Chamberlain (RP, NYY)
DL - John Smoltz (SP, ATL)

Zach is Back

2008-04-09T20:56:00.001-07:00

(Win Probability Graphing by Fangraphs)

Baseball is about overcoming adversity. In Kansas City tonight Zach Greinke returned to the form that the Royals had hoped to build a team around a couple of seasons ago and shut out the Yankees. Aside from beating the Bronx Bombers - an endearing trait in my book - he has battled back from a social anxiety disorder that nearly derailed his career. So far in this young season, the Royals have been the best team in the American League. Nobody saw that coming. Welcome back, Zach.

Doug Davis and Adversity

2008-04-09T18:39:00.001-07:00

(Win Probability Graphing by Fangraphs)

Baseball may be a game about dealing with adversity. Then there's the story behind Doug Davis' gutsy start against the Dodgers this past Tuesday just two days before undergoing surgery for thyroid cancer. Impressive outing, even more impressive character. Get well Doug Davis. Get healthy. We all look forward to your recovery.

Seattle Mariners @ Baltimore Orioles - April 6, 2008

2008-04-06T18:06:00.001-07:00

(Win Probability Graphing by Fangraphs)

The Seattle Mariners snatched defeat from the jaws of victory as their puzzling inability to take advantage of shaky starting pitching from Jeremy Guthrie (his command was all over the place) combined with a JJ Putz-less bullpen wasted an impressive 8-innings of shutout baseball by King Felix.

Felix Hernandez: 8.0 IP, 5H, 0 R, 0ER, 2 BB, 6 SO, 0HR 0.00ERA - No Decision. King Felix mixed in a lot of off speed pitches in the early frames before featuring his wicked fastball more prominently later on. He was particularly good at pitching his way out of trouble and the defense working behind him turned some outstanding double-plays.

The win practically fell into the lap of Orioles reliever Dennis Sarfate: 1.0 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 1 SO, 0HR 0.00ERA. He was featuring a fastball in the high-90s with exceptional location.

Temperature at game time: 52 degrees with drizzle. Paid attendance: 19,215.

M's Concerns: the Back End of the Rotation and the Lineup

2008-04-05T20:52:00.000-07:00

(Win Probability Graphing by Fangraphs)

Miguel Batista is a number 5 starter, and probably an above average number 5 in the big leagues. He certainly looked much sharper than the Orioles' Adam Loewen. Up until he lost his command in the fifth inning and started issuing walks. Nine base on balls issued by the Seattle pitching staff versus just three free passes from Loewen (who clearly didn't have his best stuff today) made all the difference in this game. Not to mention the 4! errors committed by the Mariners in this one. As far as "back of the rotation" starters go, Batista is the great unknown. We've seen the effective sinker ball from Carlos Silva and we cringe when Washburn gets a road start. I hope we see a more consistent Batista as the season wears on.

Why is Richie Sexson batting cleanup? He did not look comfortable in the batter's box in this one as he took some ugly hacks at pitches way out of the strike zone. His .205 batting average with just 63 RBI's last season looks more like a decline than an off-year at this point. The M's need more production than that from the number four slot.

On the other hand, Mike Morse has an impressive canon. His ability to gun down Brian Roberts at the plate on the heels of Shawn Green's errant pickoff throw into center field was most impressive. I hope we see a lot more of him (and a lot less of Willie Bloomquist).

Opening Day for the Mariners - So Far So Good

2008-04-01T18:14:00.000-07:00

(Win Probability graphing by fangraphs)

A no decision by Erik Bedard, but he certainly kept the M's in the game. Having Jose Lopez bat second looks like a good idea from this vantage point. I hope RA Dickey gets the call sooner rather than later.

Bringing the Knuckleball to Seattle

2008-03-29T10:29:00.000-07:00

I have a particular fondness for pitchers who build their career on odd pitches. Bring a good eephus or gyro-ball to the plate and I'll be hanging on every pitch. Go against the grain with lots of change-ups and pristine location on off speed offerings (a la Jamie Moyer) and I'll be your biggest fan. Feed hitters a steady diet of sinkers without getting burned and I'm fascinated. The knuckleball is one of those novelties that draws me in.

One day, when I was working on a baseball video game as my day job, Angels broadcaster Steve Physioc was in the booth recording a couple dozen generic introductions for knuckleball pitchers. It was near the end of a long day of recording and Physioc commented that "these sure are a lot of lines just for Time Wakefield." There are never many knuckleball pitchers in the majors, but those who master that off speed wonder pitch with all of its unpredictable movement in and around the strike zone can pitch their way well into the twilight years of a big league career.

You can count on just two hairy knuckles the number of pitchers in the majors who feature this dancing pitch and this year one of them is pitching for my team. I can't help but wish RA Dickey great success this year. He could be an important part of a good run for the 2008 M's. Mike Bauman has a nice profile piece about him. I hope Kenji Johjima is up for the unusual challenge of catching this crazy pitch.

2008 Forcasting

2008-03-27T20:50:00.000-07:00

There's already two games in the books, this Sunday will make it three. Then there will be the other 2,427 games scheduled after that. It's a good time for the dubious task of predicting the future.

American League Central

1 - Detroit Tigers
2 - Cleveland Indians (wild card)
3 - Minnesota Twins
4 - Chicago White Sox
5 - Kansas City Royals

This has to be a good year to be a Tigers fan. I think Dontrelle Willis bolsters an already outstanding pitching staff and the change of scenery (not to mention run support) could bring out the D-Train of 2003 and 2005 when he was an elite pitcher. Offensively, the addition of Miguel Cabrera makes this an intimidating lineup. Cleveland will make a good run, but that one-two punch of pitching and offense heavily favors Detroit going into this campaign.

American League East

1 - Boston Red Sox
2 - New York Yankees
3 - Toronto Blue Jays
4 - Tampa Bay Rays
5 - Baltimore Orioles

I'd pick the Orioles to finish lower, but there's only 5 teams in this division. The Rays will have a good surge at some point this year, putting together good outings from Shields and Kazmir along with explosive run support. But I just don't see them sustaining anything that threatens the Boston-New York hegemony.

American League West

1 - Seattle Mariners
2 - Los Angeles Angels
3 - Texas Rangers
4 - Oakland Athletics

Go Mariners. This year, I'm believing.

ALDS
Detroit Tigers defeat Seattle Mariners
Boston Red Sox defeat Cleveland Indians

(Apparently, my believing doesn't extend into post-season predictions.)

ALCS
Detroit Tigers defeat Boston Red Sox

National League Central

1 - Chicago Cubs
2 - Milwaukee Brewers
3 - Cincinnati Reds
4 - St. Louis Cardinals
5 - Houston Astros
6 - Pittsburgh Pirates

This is a weak division. It's not hard to envision the Cubs defending their division title here.

National League East

1 - New York Mets
2 - Philadelphia Phillies (wild card)
3 - Atlanta Braves
4 - Washington Nationals
5 - Florida Marlins

The 1-2 punch of Johan Santana and Pedro Martinez tips this one squarely in favor of New York. Though the Phillies will probably score enough runs to be serious contenders. The Fish will easily sink to the bottom of this division no matter how bad the pitching is in DC.

National League West

1 - Arizona Diamondbacks
2 - San Diego Padres
3 - Colorado Rockies
4 - Los Angeles Dodgers
5 - San Francisco Giants

The D-Backs pitching will be the big story this year. The Rockies' Cinderella story from last year will get a little.... rocky this time around.

NLDS
New York Mets defeat the Arizona Diamondbacks
Philadelphia Phillies defeat the Chicago Cubs

NLCS
Philadelphia Phillies defeat the New York Mets

World Series
Detroit Tigers defeat the Philadelphia Phillies

I picked the Phillies last year and was completely wrong. I picked the Cardinals the year before that and got it right. On that track record I'd say the Tigers have a 50% chance of winning it all this year.

More on that Seattle Rotation

2008-03-26T20:52:00.000-07:00

The consistently insightful David Pinto confirms my optimism for the Mariner's starting rotation. I'm even entertaining thoughts of Jarrod Washburn having a career year. His best year came in 2002 with the Angels. He was fourth in the Cy Young voting that year with a 3.15 ERA on a team that won the championship. His two seasons with Seattle haven't been anything close to that. But that last spring training start does seem promising.

Even if the thought of Carlos Silva allowing many, many balls in play raises doubts, just remember the pitching friendly dimensions of Safeco Field, one JJ Putz in the bullpen and no Jeff Weaver on the roster this year.

That's One in the Books: Boston 1-0, Oakland 0-1

2008-03-25T19:10:00.001-07:00

(Win Probability graphing from Fangraphs)

What a way to start the season! Lots of drama for the fans in Tokyo, a good dose of Dice-K (who looked terrible in the first inning, but improved from there), Hideki Okajima, extra innings, a blown save from Huston Street and a shaky save from Jonathan Papelbon.

The best story coming out of this is the ninth inning heroics of Brandon Moss - a late addition to the lineup to fill in for an ailing JD Drew - tying everything up with a solo shot. I'm skeptical of Drew's perpetual "ailing" status. He has a lot of natural talent, but has he ever logged in more than 140 - 145 games in a single season? Usually less. It's nice to see Moss step it up in his stead.

The other blast from a relative unknown was the two run shot by Jack Hannahan. That was an impressive cut and a taste of the surprises in store with this year's young Oakland staff.

Dice-K on Day One

2008-03-24T19:11:00.000-07:00

Tuesday, March 25, 2008
Daisuke Matsuzaka (0-0)(BOS) vs. Joe Blanton (0-0)(OAK)

It seems fitting that the starting pitcher that became an obsession over the 2007 season would get the nod in the first official game of the 2008 campaign - as a defending world champion no less. He clearly wore down over the long season last year. And he had an ERA you could tune orchestras to (4.40, as in A 440 Hz), which is not overly impressive. But there's that mystique of the fabled "gyro ball." And when he's on his game, he can be a lot of fun to watch in action.
Matsuzaka's 2008 projection: 4.01 ERA/1.280 WHIP/200.0 IP/16-10

Blanton, on the other hand, is a better pitcher than most people realize. I don't know if he's "opening day" ace material. But his 2007 ERA was 3.95 and with that 1.217 WHIP he was effective at keeping the bases clear. And he does get to throw the first official pitch of the year.

The A's starting rotation is interesting - if somewhat less than what we've seen in Oakland in past years:
Joe Blanton - 2008 projection: 4.14 ERA/1.315 WHIP/213.0 IP/15-11
Rich Harden - 2008 projection: 3.26 ERA/1.174 WHIP/69.0 IP/5-2
Chad Gaudin - 2008 projection: 4.14 ERA/1.460 WHIP/150.0 IP/8-11
Justin Duchscherer (reprising his starting role) - 2008 projection: 3.12 ERA/1.163 WHIP/49.0 IP/4-3
Lenny DiNardo - 2008 projection: 4.36 ERA/1.495 WHIP/99.0 IP/5-7

If those projections hold out, the A's will be looking for spot starters and hurlers capable of eating innings. But the prospect - and the gamble - of a healthy Rich Hardin has to be tantalizing.

What is this Feeling? Optimism?

2008-03-23T20:39:00.000-07:00

With a new season just days off there's more than the usual post-spring training optimism surrounding this year's Mariners organization. After a tantalizing late-season run (followed by an even later-season collapse) there's something about this year's starting rotation that gives this M's fan hope that they can hold their own in the American League West. They'll need to keep the Angels off the board (something sorely lacking in today's pre-season exchange). But it's been a while since the Mariners have gone into a season with expectations beyond an over-.500 record.

(1) Erik Bedard
The M's actually made a big trade to pull in this 2007 Cy Young candidate (5th in overall voting) and acquired an ace.
Projected: 3.48 ERA/1.222 WHIP/207.0 IP/15-8

(2) Felix Hernandez
The young phenom is still the King. And still destined to put together brilliant outings with experience.
Projected: 3.54 ERA/1.214 WHIP/206.0 IP/15-8

(3) Jarrod Washburn
Projected: 4.52 ERA/1.386 WHIP/189.0 IP/9-14

(4) Carlos Silva
Projected: 4.57 ERA/1.378 WHIP/193.0 IP/10-13

(5) Miguel Batista
Projected: 4.52 ERA/1.533 WHIP/197.0IP/12-12

There's not a lot on the back end of that rotation to scare too many teams. But bring a small lead into the late innings and the Mariners have an elite closer on hand to convert the victory.

Closer: J.J. Putz
Projected: 1.88 ERA/0.875 WHIP/72.0 IP/39 SV

Also in the wings, in the bullpen, and on hand for spot starts is a knuckle-baller who bears keeping an eye on: R.A. Dickey. He has struggled in the past few seasons. But the more pitching friendly Safeco Field could be just the place to put that behind him. It's hard not to root for someone attempting to build a career on that knuckler.

3 Picks: Veterans and Rookies... and go Phillies!

2007-09-25T19:27:00.000-07:00

Wednesday, September 26: Johan Santana (15-13)(MIN) vs. Jair Jurrjens (3-1)(DET)

Thursday, September 27: John Smoltz (14-7)(ATL) vs. Kyle Kendrick (9-4)(PHI)

Friday, September 28: Kevin Slowey (4-0)(MIN) vs. Daisuke Matsuzaka (14-12)(BOS)

3 Picks: $18 Million Only Buys 9 Wins for the Giants

2007-09-22T21:43:00.000-07:00

Sunday, September 23: Jeff Francis (16-8)(COL) vs. Greg Maddux (13-10)(SD)

Monday, September 24: Chris Young (9-7)(SD) vs. Barry Zito (9-13)(SF)

Tuesday, September 25: Chuck James (11-10)(ATL) vs. Jamie Moyer (13-11)(PHI)

3 Picks: Yep, Boomer Pitches for the Dodgers Now...

2007-09-19T20:27:00.000-07:00

Thursday, September 20: Jon Garland (9-2)(CHW) vs. Zack Greinke (6-6)(KC)

Friday, September 21: Josh Beckett (19-6)(BOS) vs. Scott Kazmir (13-8)(TB)

Saturday, September 22: David Wells (8-8)(LAD) vs. Brandon Webb (16-10)(ARI)

3 Picks: Division Battles in September

2007-09-16T10:37:00.000-07:00

Monday, September 17: Kenny Rogers (3-2)(DET) vs. Paul Byrd (15-6)(CLE)

Tuesday, September 18: Chad Billingsley (11-4)(LAD) vs. Jeff Francis (15-8)(COL)

Wednesday, September 19: Daisuke Matsuzaka (14-12)(BOS) vs. Jesse Litsch (5-9)(TOR)

3 Picks: Yankees @ Red Sox.... of course

2007-09-13T18:31:00.000-07:00

Friday, September 14: Andy Pettitte (13-8)(NYY) vs. Daisuke Matsuzaka (14-2)(BOS)

Yankees 8, Red Sox 7

(Win Probability graphing by Fangraphs)
Yankees player of the game: (RF) Bobby Abreu - WPA +.360
1/4, 1R, 0HR, 2RBI, 1BB, 1SO
Yankees lowest contributor: (SP) Andy Pettitte - WPA -.265
4.0IP, 9H, 5R, 4ER, 2BB, 5SO, 0HR

Red Sox player of the game: (RF) J.D. Drew - WPA +.207
2/5, 0R, 0HR, 1RBI, 0BB, 2SO
Red Sox lowest contributor: (RP) Jonathan Papelbon - WPA -.437
1.0IP, 3H, 2R, 2ER, 0BB, 2SO, 0HR

Andy Pettitte: 4.0IP, 9H, 5R, 4ER, 2BB, 5SO, 0HR - ND
Brian Bruney: 1.1IP, 0H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 1SO, 0HR - W
Luis Vizcaino: 1.0IP, 0H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 1SO, 0HR - H
Mariano Rivera: 1.0IP, 1H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 2SO, 0HR - SV

Daisuke Matsuzaka: 5.2IP, 4H, 2R, 2ER, 5BB, 7SO, 0HR - ND
Mike Timlin: 0.1IP, 1H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 1SO, 0HR - H
Jonathan Papelbon: 1.0IP, 3H, 2R, 2ER, 0BB, 2SO, 0HR - BS, L

Nooooooooooooooooo!

Saturday, September 15: Chien-Ming Wang (18-6)(NYY) vs. Josh Beckett (18-6)(BOS)

Yankees 1, Red Sox 10

(Win Probability graphing by Fangraphs)
Yankees player of the game: (SS) Derek Jeter - WPA +.039
2/4, 1R, 1HR, 1RBI, 0BB, 0SO
Yankees lowest contributor: (SP) Chien-Ming Wang - WPA -.165
5.2IP, 9H, 5R, 5ER, 3BB, 3SO, 0HR

Red Sox player of the game: (SP) Josh Beckett - WPA +.311
7.0IP, 3H, 1R, 1ER, 2BB, 7SO, 1HR
Red Sox lowest contributor: (C) Jason Varitek - WPA -.185
0/5, 0R, 0HR, 0RBI, 0BB, 2SO

Chien-Ming Wang: 5.2IP, 9H, 5R, 5ER, 3BB, 3SO, 0HR - L

Josh Beckett: 7.0IP, 3H, 1R, 1ER, 2BB, 7SO, 1HR - W

That's more like it! Rubber match below.

Sunday, September 16: Roger Clemens (6-6)(NYY) vs. Curt Schilling (8-7)(BOS)

3 Picks: Eyes on the National League

2007-09-10T20:03:00.000-07:00

Tuesday, September 11: Jake Peavy (16-6)(SD) vs. Esteban Loaiza (2-0)(LAD)

Padres 9, Dodgers 4

(Win Probability graphing by Fangraphs)
Padres player of the game: (RF) Brian Giles - WPA +.163
2/4, 2R, 1HR, 2RBI, 1BB, 0SO
Padres lowest contributor: (RP) Kevin Cameron - WPA -.066
0.0IP, 3H, 1R, 1ER, 1BB, 0SO, 0HR

Dodgers player of the game: (2B) Jeff Kent - WPA +.110
3/5, 0R, 0HR, 1RBI, 0BB, 0SO
Dodgers lowest contributor: (SP) Esteban Loaiza - WPA -.335
3.1IP, 6H, 6R, 6ER, 4BB, 5SO, 3HR

Jake Peavy: 7.0IP, 5H, 2R, 2ER, 2BB, 5SO, 1HR - W

Esteban Loaiza: 3.1IP, 6H, 6R, 6ER, 4BB, 5SO, 3HR - L

Wednesday, September 12: John Smoltz (13-7)(ATL) vs. John Maine (14-9)(NYM)

Braves 3, Mets 4

(Win Probability graphing by Fangraphs)
Braves player of the game: (RF) Jeff Francoeur - WPA +.293
1/3, 0R, 0HR, 2RBI, 1BB, 1SO
Braves lowest contributor: (RP) Manuel Acosta - WPA -.221
1.0IP, 2H, 1R, 1ER, 0BB, 0SO, 0HR

Mets player of the game: (SP) John Maine - WPA +.247
6.0IP, 3H, 1R, 1ER, 3BB, 5SO, 0HR
Mets lowest contributor: (RP) Guillermo Mota - WPA -.194
0.1IP, 1H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 1SO, 0HR

John Smoltz: 6.0IP, 6H, 2R, 2ER, 2BB, 8SO, 1HR - ND
Manuel Acosta: 1.0IP, 2H, 1R, 1ER, 0BB, 0SO, 0HR - L

John Maine: 6.0IP, 3H, 1R, 1ER, 3BB, 5SO, 0HR - ND
Jorge Sosa: 1.0IP, 0H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 0SO, 0HR - H
Aaron Heilman: 0.2IP, 1H, 2R, 2ER, 1BB, 0SO, 0HR - H
Guillermo Mota: 0.1IP, 1H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 1SO, 0HR - BS, W
Billy Wagner: 1.0IP, 0H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 0SO, 0HR - SV

Thursday, September 13: Adam Wainwright (13-10)(STL) vs. Aaron Harang (14-4)(CIN)

Cardinals 5, Reds 5

(Win Probability graphing by Fangraphs)
Cardinals player of the game: (1B) Albert Pujols - WPA +.070
1/2, 1R, 0HR, 2RBI, 0BB, 0SO
Cardinals lowest contributor: (SP) Kip Wells WPA -.256
4.2IP, 10H, 5R, 5ER, 6BB, 2SO, 1HR

Reds player of the game: (1B) Joey Votto - WPA +.272
3/4, 1R, 0HR, 2RBI, 0BB, 0SO
Reds lowest contributor: (RF) Ken Griffey Jr. - WPA -.160
1/4, 0R, 0HR, 0RBI, 0BB, 0SO

Kip Wells: 4.2IP, 10H, 5R, 5ER, 6BB, 2SO, 1HR - L

Aaron Harang: 7.0IP, 3H, 3R, 3ER, 2BB, 5SO, 0HR - W
David Weathers: 1.0IP, 2H, 1R, 1ER, 0BB, 0SO, 0HR - SV

3 Picks: Eyes on the American League

2007-08-22T18:28:00.001-07:00

Thursday, August 23: Jake Westbrook (4-7)(CLE) vs. Nate Robertson (7-10)(DET)

There's no way I would have anticipated losing records for both of these starters back in April. Two starters having off-years go at it in this one.

Indians 3, Tigers 1 (10)

(Win Probability graphing by Fangraphs)
Indians player of the game: (SP) Jake Westbrook - WPA +.563
8.0IP, 5H, 0R, 0ER, 2BB, 3SO, 0HR
Indians lowest contributor: (RF) Franklin Gutierrez - WPA -.320
0/4, 0R, 0HR, 0RBI, 0BB, 2SO

Tigers player of the game: (SP) Nate Robertson - WPA +.600
8.2IP, 4H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 3SO, 0HR
Tigers lowest contributor: (RP) Joel Zumaya - WPA -.358
1.0IP, 3H, 3R, 3ER, 2BB, 1SO, 0HR

Jake Westbrook: 8.0IP, 5H, 0R, 0ER, 2BB, 3SO, 0HR - ND
Rafael Perez: 0.1IP, 0H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 1SO, 0BB - W
Joe Borowski: 1.0IP, 3H, 1R, 1ER, 0BB, 0SO, 0HR - SV

Nate Robertson: 8.2IP, 4H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 3SO, 0HR - ND
Joel Zumaya: 1.0IP, 3H, 3R, 3ER, 2BB, 1SO, 0HR - L

A rough end to a well pitched game. This victory puts the Tribe 2 1/2 games over the Tigers in the division race. It figures that this would be the day I put Zumaya on the fantasy roster...

Friday, August 24: CC Sabathia (14-6)(CLE) vs. Zack Greinke (5-5)(KC)

Greinke returns as a starter in this one. Which is a good sign as there's plenty of reason to build the Royals' future around his talent.

Indians 1, Royals 2

(Win Probability graphing by Fangraphs)
Indians player of the game: (2B) Asdrubal Cabrera - WPA +.188
2/3, 0R, 0HR, 0RBI, 0BB, 0SO
Indians lowest contributor: (3B) Casey Blake - WPA -.189
0/4, 0R, 0HR, 0RBI, 0BB, 0SO

Royals player of the game: (RP) John Bale - WPA +.204
3.0IP, 2H, 0R 0ER, 0BB, 5SO, 0HR
Royals lowest contributor: (C) John Buck - WPA -.084
0/3, 0R, 0HR, 0RBI, 0BB, 0SO

CC Sabathia: 8.0IP, 5H, 2R, 2ER, 2BB, 6SO, 0HR - L

Zack Greinke: 3.0IP, 1H, 0R, 0ER, 1BB, 2SO, 0HR - ND
John Bale: 3.0IP, 2H, 0R 0ER, 0BB, 5SO, 0HR - W
Jimmy Gobble: 0.2IP, 0H, 1R, 1ER, 1BB, 0SO, 0HR - H
Joel Peralta: 0.1IP, 1H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 1SO, 0HR - H
David Riske: 1.0IP, 1H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 1SO, 0HR - H
Joakim Soria: 1.0IP, 1H, 0R, 0ER, 1BB, 0SO, 0HR - SV

Saturday, August 25: Chien-Ming Wang (14-6)(NYY) vs. Jeremy Bonderman (10-6)(DET)

Wang hasn't pitched well over his last three starts even though he's gone 1-1 over that span. And it was the Tigers that failed to capitalize on Wang's last start. We'll see if Bonderman can keep the cat bats in the game this time around.

Yankees 7, Tigers 2

(Win Probability graphing by Fangraphs)
Yankees player of the game: (SP) Chien-Ming Wang - WPA +.163
8.0IP, 5H, 2R, 1ER, 2BB, 6SO, 0HR
Yankees lowest contributor: (C) Jorge Posada - WPA -.117
0/5, 0R, 0HR, 0RBI, 0BB, 0SO

Tigers player of the game: (3B) Brandon Inge - WPA +.163
2/3, 1R, 0HR, 0RBI, 0BB, 0SO
Tigers lowest contributor: (SP) Jeremy Bonderman - WPA -.352
5.2IP, 8H, 7R, 7ER, 4BB, 0SO, 1HR

Chien-Ming Wang: 8.0IP, 5H, 2R, 1ER, 2BB, 6SO, 0HR - W

Jeremy Bonderman: 5.2IP, 8H, 7R, 7ER, 4BB, 0SO, 1HR - L

3-picks will be on hiatus for the next couple of weeks...

3 Picks: Red Sox at the Trop

2007-08-19T16:22:00.000-07:00

Monday, August 20: Tim Wakefield (14-10)(BOS) vs. Scott Kazmir (9-7)(TB)

I find this match up of veteran knuckle-baller against the young flame-thrower compelling. Though I suspect the real story will be the Boston bats and how well they'll contrast compared to all the Devil Rays not named Carl Crawford.

Red Sox 6, Devil Rays 0

(Win Probability graphing by Fangraphs)
Red Sox player of the game: (3B) Mike Lowell - WPA +.207
2/2, 1R, 1HR, 3RBI, 2BB, 0SO
Red Sox lowest contributor: (LF) Bobby Kielty - WPA -.075
0/5, 1R, 0HR, 0RBI, 0BB, 1SO

Devil Rays player of the game: (3B) Akinori Iwamura - WPA +.016
0/3, 0R, 0HR, 0RBI, 1BB, 1SO
Devil Rays lowest contributor: (SP) Scott Kazmir - WPA -.305
5.2IP, 7H, 6R, 6ER, 4BB, 8SO, 1HR

Tim Wakefield: 7.0IP, 4H, 0R, 0ER, 1BB, 5SO, 0HR - W

Scott Kazmir: 5.2IP, 7H, 6R, 6ER, 4BB, 8SO, 1HR - L

The Rays were bedeviled by the knuckleball as Wakefield danced his way to victory. Or at least his knuckler did. Kazmir had the strikeouts. But the 6 earned runs were his undoing.

Tuesday, August 21: Chris Young (9-4)(SD) vs. John Maine (13-7)(NYM)

This one is an easy call. Two of the best NL starting pitchers working it at Shea.

Padres 6, Mets 7

(Win Probability graphing by Fangraphs)
Padres player of the game: (CF) Mike Cameron - WPA +.372
2/3, 2R, 1HR, 2RBI, 2BB, 0SO
Padres lowest contributor: (RP) Trevor Hoffman - WPA -.791
0.1IP, 4H, 2R, 2ER, 0BB, 0SO, 0HR

Mets player of the game: (CF) Carlos Beltran - WPA +.547
3/3, 1R, 1HR, 5RBI, 1BB, 0SO
Mets lowest contributor: (RP) Jorge Sosa - WPA -.353
0.1IP, 2H, 1R, 1ER, 0BB, 1SO, 0HR

Chris Young: 5.0IP, 5H, 4R, 4ER, 2BB, 5SO, 1HR - ND
Heath Bell: 1.0IP, 2H, 1R, 1ER, 1BB, 1SO, 0HR - BS
Trevor Hoffman: 0.1IP, 4H, 2R, 2ER, 0BB, 0SO, 0HR - BS, L

John Maine: 5.2IP, 6H, 3R, 3ER, 4BB, 4SO, 1HR - ND
Scott Schoeneweis: 1.0IP, 1H, 1R, 1ER, 0BB, 1SO, 0HR - H
Jorge Sosa: 0.1IP, 2H, 1R, 1ER, 0BB, 1SO, 0HR - BS
Billy Wagner: 1.0IP, 1H, 1R, 1ER, 1BB, 2SO, 0HR - W

You look at the bullpen performance in this game and there's reason for concern for both of these contenders. Three blown saves and the win is credited to a closer despite a shaky outing. This does not bode well for the final push down the stretch for either of these teams.

Wednesday, August 22: Daisuke Matsuzaka (13-9)(BOS) vs. Edwin Jackson (3-12)(TB)

I'm in this one more for the Dice-K saga than the Edwin Jackson record of pain. But I'm sure that 3-12 record looks worse than it is given the team he's pitching for.

Red Sox 1, Devil Rays 2

(Win Probability graphing by Fangraphs)
Red Sox player of the game: (DH) David Ortiz - WPA +.215
2/2, 0R, 0HR, 0RBI, 3BB, 0SO
Red Sox lowest contributor: (C) Jason Varitek - WPA -.338
0.5, 0R, 0HR, 0RBI, 0BB, 2SO

Devil Rays player of the game: (SP) Edwin Jackson - WPA +.217
6.0IP, 5H, 1R, 1ER, 5BB, 3SO, 0HR
Devil Rays lowest contributor: (1B) Joel Guzman - WPA -.091
0/3, 0R, 0HR, 0RBI, 1BB, 2SO

Daisuke Matsuzaka: 6.0IP, 2H, 2R, 2ER, 4BB, 8SO, 1HR - L

Edwin Jackson: 6.0IP, 5H, 1R, 1ER, 5BB, 3SO, 0HR - W
Dan Wheeler: 1.0IP, 2H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 2SO, 0HR - H
Gary Glover: 1.0IP, 1H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 1SO, 0HR - H
Al Reyes: 1.0IP, 1H, 0R, 0ER, 1BB, 0SO, 0HR - SV

The Devil Rays only gave him 2 runs of support to work with, but that was enough for Edwin Jackson to overcome the Dice-K machine.

3 Picks: The Action's in Boston

2007-08-16T19:26:00.000-07:00

Friday, August 17: John Lackey (15-6)(LAA) vs. Josh Beckett (15-5)(BOS) - game 2 of the day/night double-header

Two teams trying to hang on to their increasingly tentative leads in their respective division races send their 15-game winning pitchers to the mound in this night-cap of the double-header. I'm looking for the Mariners to close their gap on the Angels so I'm pulling for a little home field advantage in this one.
--
The Angels went and switched the order of their starting pitchers for this double header. I imagine they couldn't recall Ervin Santana from triple-A in time to get him for the first game.
Game 1

Angels 4, Red Sox 8

(Win Probability graphing by Fangraphs)
Angels player of the game: (1B) Casey Kotchman - WPA +.132
4/4, 1R, 0HR, 0RBI, 0BB, 0SO
Angels lowest contributor: (SP) John Lackey - WPA -.428
4.0IP, 11H, 7R, 6ER, 0BB, 3SO, 1HR

Red Sox player of the game: (DH) David Ortiz - WPA +.151
2/5, 1R, 1HR, 2RBI, 0BB, 0SO
Red Sox lowest contributor: (1B) Kevin Youkilis - WPA -.050
1/4, 1R, 0HR, 0RBI, 1BB, 1SO

John Lackey: 4.0IP, 11H, 7R, 6ER, 0BB, 3SO, 1HR - L

Clay Buchholz: 6.0IP, 8H, 4R, 3ER, 3BB, 5SO, 0HR - W
Hideki Okajima: 1.2IP, 2H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 3SO, 0HR - H
Jonathan Papelbon: 1.1IP, 1H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 2SO, 0HR - SV

Game 2

Angels 7, Red Sox 5

(Win Probability graphing by Fangraphs)
Angels player of the game: (DH) Vladimir Guerrero - WPA +.585
3/5, 2R, 0HR, 3RBI, 0BB, 0SO
Angels lowest contributor: (RP) Francisco Rodriguez - WPA -.488
1.2IP, 2H, 1R, 1ER, 0BB, 1SO, 0HR

Red Sox player of the game: (DH) David Ortiz - WPA +.450
2/4, 2R, 0HR, 2RBI, 0BB, 2SO

Red Sox lowest contributor: (RP) Eric Gagne - WPA -.735

1.0IP, 3H 3R, 3ER, 1BB, 0SO, 0HR

Ervin Santana: 6.1IP, 4H, 1R, 1ER, 0BB, 5SO, 0HR - ND
Justin Speier: 0.2IP, 0H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 1SO, 0HR - H
Scot Shields: 0.1IP, 1H, 3R, 3ER, 2BB, 1SO, 0HR - H
Francisco Rodriguez: 1.2IP, 2H, 1R, 1ER, 0BB, 1SO, 0HR - BS, W

Josh Beckett: 7.0IP, 5H, 2R, 1ER, 1BB, 8SO, 0HR - ND
Eric Gagne: 1.0IP, 3H 3R, 3ER, 1BB, 0SO, 0HR - BS, L

So there's the split on the double-header. David Ortiz was swinging a hot bat today and there was an impressive bullpen collapse on both sides in the second game with a pair of blown saves.

Saturday, August 18: Jered Weaver (8-5)(LAA) vs. Curt Schilling (6-5)(BOS)

Once again, the interesting match up of the day can be found in Boston as the series goes on.

Angels 5, Red Sox 10

(Win Probability graphing by Fangraphs)
Angels player of the game: (LF) Reggie Willits - WPA +.138
2/4, 1R, 0HR, 1RBI, 0BB, 1SO
Angels lowest contributor: (SP) Jered Weaver - WPA -.455
4.1IP, 8H, 6R, 6ER, 1BB, 5SO, 1HR

Red Sox player of the game: (DH) David Ortiz - WPA +.251
1/3, 2R, 1HR, 4RBI, 2BB, 1SO
Red Sox lowest contributor: (SP) Curt Schilling - WPA -.166
6.0IP, 8H, 5R, 5ER, 0BB, 3SO, 2HR

Jered Weaver: 4.1IP, 8H, 6R, 6ER, 1BB, 5SO, 1HR - L

Curt Schilling: 6.0IP, 8H, 5R, 5ER, 0BB, 3SO, 2HR - W
Mike Timlin: 1.0IP, 1H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 0SO, 0HR - H
Hideki Okajima: 1.0IP, 0H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 0SO, 0HR - H

Curt Schilling's bad start happens to beat Jered Weaver's bad start as Weaver continues the sophomore slump I was afraid he'd have this season.

Sunday, August 19: CC Sabathia (14-6)(CLE) vs. James Shields (9-8)(TB)

The only mis-match in this game is the offense. If Shields had the Indians hitting (and playing defense) behind him he'd probably have a Sabathia-like win record.

Indians 3, Devil Rays 4 (12)

(Win Probability graphing by Fangraphs)
Indians player of the game: (SP) CC Sabathia - WPA +.263
8.0IP, 5H, 2R, 2ER, 0BB, 6SO, 2HR
Indians lowest contributor: (RP) Joe Borowski - WPA -.291
1.0IP, 2H, 1R, 1ER, 1BB, 2SO, 0HR

Devil Rays player of the game: (LF) Carl Crawford - WPA +.350
1/5, 1R, 0HR, 1RBI, 0BB, 1SO
Devil Rays lowest contributor of the game: (2B) Brendan Harris - WPA -.159
2/5, 0R, 0HR, 0RBI, 0BB, 1SO

CC Sabathia: 8.0IP, 5H, 2R, 2ER, 0BB, 6SO, 2HR - ND
Joe Borowski: 1.0IP, 2H, 1R, 1ER, 1BB, 2SO, 0HR - BS
Rafael Perez: 1.0IP, 2H, 1R, 1ER, 0BB, 1SO, 0HR - L

James Shields: 6.0IP, 6H, 2R, 2ER, 1BB, 6SO, 0HR - ND
Scott Dohmann: 2.0IP, 1H, 0R, 0ER, 1BB, 1SO, 0HR - W

Some nice oscillation in the extra innings of the win probability graph. Sabathia is denied the victory despite an excellent outing. And the D-Rays take this one despite some shaky relief pitching.

3 Picks: Contending Teams at Home Playing Against Non-contenders

2007-08-13T17:03:00.000-07:00

Tuesday, August 14: Aaron Harang (11-3)(CIN) vs. Carlos Zambrano (14-8)(CHC)

It's staff ace versus staff ace as Chicago looks to pick up some ground on the Brewers in this one.

Reds 6, Cubs 5

(Win Probability graphing by Fangraphs)
Reds player of the game: (RP) David Weathers - WPA +.280
1.1IP, 0H, 0R, 0ER, 2BB, 0SO, 0HR
Reds lowest contributor: (LF) Adam Dunn - WPA -.085
0/4, 0R, 0HR, 0RBI, 1BB, 0SO

Cubs player of the game: (1B) Derrek Lee - WPA +.144
2/4, 1R, 1HR, 2RBI, 0BB, 1SO
Cubs lowest contributor: (SP) Carlos Zambrano
7.0IP, 13H, 6R, 6ER, 2BB, 0SO, 0HR

Aaron Harang: 7.0IP, 4H, 5R, 5ER, 1BB, 7SO, 3HR - W
Jared Burton: 0.2IP, 1H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 1SO, 0HR - H
David Weathers: 1.1IP, 0H, 0R, 0ER, 2BB, 0SO, 0HR - SV

Carlos Zambrano: 7.0IP, 13H, 6R, 6ER, 2BB, 0SO, 0HR - L

Only when Zambrano is off his game can you go into the friendly confines and give up 3 home runs and still come away with the win. Carlos put up some ugly numbers for the loss, but at least he kept the ball in the yard. And that's saying something in that ballpark. But tip your cap to the 7 K's from Harang. The Cubs will need to dig deep to stay in the division race.

Wednesday, August 15: Andy Sonnanstine (1-8)(TB) vs. Daisuke Matsuzaka (13-8)(BOS)

I smell a substantial mis-match as Boston looks to keep their dwindling l ead over the Yankees alive.

Devil Rays 6, Red Sox 5

(Win Probability graphing by Fangraphs)
Devil Rays player of the game: (SP) Andy Sonnanstine - WPA +.183
6.2IP, 4H, 3R, 3ER, 2BB, 3SO, 1HR
Devil Rays lowest contributor: (C) Dioner Navarro - WPA -.051
0/3, 0R, 0HR, 1RBI, 0BB, 2SO

Red Sox player of the game: (SS) Julio Lugo - WPA +.297
2/4, 0R, 0HR, 1RBI, 0BB, 0SO
Red Sox lowest contributor: (SP) Daisuke Matsuzaka - WPA -.268
6.0IP, 8H, 6R, 6ER, 3BB, 5SO, 0HR

Andy Sonnanstine: 6.2IP, 4H, 3R, 3ER, 2BB, 3SO, 1HR - W
Dan Wheeler: 1.0IP, 1H, 1R, 1ER, 2BB, 0SO, 0HR - H
Al Reyes: 1.0IP, 2H, 1R, 1ER, 1BB, 3SO, 0HR - SV

Daisuke Matsuzaka: 6.0IP, 8H, 6R, 6ER, 3BB, 5SO, 0HR - L

What a stunning upset. The unlikely Andy Sonnanstine staves off a sweep with a gutsy, winning quality start while Dice-K labored through this one.

Thursday, August 16: Tim Lincecum (6-3)(SF) vs. Chuck James (9-8)(ATL)

James is a good left handed starting pitcher, far better than what his 9-8 record would suggest. And he'll have his hands full as he's charged with keeping the NL East division race hopes alive with a quality outing against the surprising Lincecum.

Giants 9, Braves 3

(Win Probability graphing by Fangraphs)
Giants player of the game: (C) Bengie Molina - WPA +.194
2/3, 1R, 1HR, 4RBI, 0BB, 0SO
Giants lowest contributor: (2B) Ray Durham - WPA -.022
0/3, 0R, 0HR, 0RBI, 1BB, 1SO

Braves player of the game: (CF) Andruw Jones - WPA +.075
2/4, 0R, 0HR, 0RBI, 0BB, 0SO
Braves lowest contributor: (SP) Chuck James - WPA -.380
3.2IP, 5H, 6R, 6ER, 1BB, 2SO, 4HR

Tim Lincecum: 5.0IP, 5H, 3R, 3ER, 1BB, 4SO, 0HR - W

Chuck James: 3.2IP, 5H, 6R, 6ER, 1BB, 2SO, 4HR - L

Four home runs allowed in just 3 and two-thirds innings... ouch! That doesn't give his team much of a chance. If the Braves fall short of the playoffs again this year it will be on games like this one where they seemed to have the advantage on paper going into it. On the other hand, as a long-time Braves detractor, there's some satisfaction in seeing a team as completely out of any race like the Giants knocking this Atlanta team down.

3 Picks: A Couple of Games with AL Wild Card Implications.... and one without

2007-08-10T22:27:00.000-07:00

Saturday, August 11: Dan Haren (13-3)(OAK) vs. Justin Verlander (11-4)(DET)

The Tigers turn to Verlander to keep them in the AL Wild Card race. With the Yankees taking the lead in that race they'll need to make a good push down the stretch.

Athletics 2, Tigers 5

(Win Probability graphing by Fangraphs)
Athletics player of the game: (LF) Shannon Stewart - WPA +.133
2/4, 0R, 0HR, 1RBI, 1BB, 0SO
Athletics lowest contributor: (2B) Mark Ellis - WPA -.231
0/4, 0R, 0HR, 0RBI, 0BB, 2SO

Tigers player of the game: (RF) Magglio Ordonez - WPA +.262
3/4, 1R, 1HR, 2RBI, 0BB, 0SO
Tigers lowest contributor: (SP) Justin Verlander - WPA -.086
6.0IP, 7H, 2R, 2ER, 3BB, 7SO, 0HR

Dan Haren: 6.1IP, 9H, 3R, 3ER, 1BB, 4SO, 2HR - L

Justin Verlander: 6.0IP, 7H, 2R, 2ER, 3BB, 7SO, 0HR - W
Bobby Seay: 0.1IP, 0H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 1SO, 0HR - H
Aquilino Lopez: 0.2IP, 0H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 1SO, 0HR - H
Fernando Rodney: 1.0IP, 0H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 2SO, 0HR - H
Todd Jones: 1.0IP, 0H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 0SO, 0HR - SV

It's impressive that the Tigers player with the lowest WPA is the pitcher that comes away with the win. It speaks to some suspicions about how WPA is attributed to pitching as well as the kind of game the team as a whole was having at the plate. With the Tigers, Yankees and Mariners all winning their contests today the Wild Card race continues to be a mad dash to the finish. Though at least the Tigers and Mariners can expect to be factors in their respective division races. The Yankees... not so much.

Sunday, August 12: AJ Burnett (5-6)(TOR) vs. Brian Bannister (8-6)(KC)

By a strange twist of fortune AJ Burnett is the pitcher I drafted for my fantasy team back in March and now Brian Bannister is the one pitching for my Oriole Blue Wave. Burnett really hasn't been the pitcher the Blue Jays expected. And I wonder if it's more than the injuries behind his under performance.

Blue Jays 4, Royals 1

(Win Probability graphing by Fangraphs)
Blue Jays player of the game: (SP) AJ Burnett - WPA +.299
7.1IP, 3H, 1R, 1ER, 3BB, 5SO, 1HR
Blue Jays lowest contributor: (CF) Vernon Wells - WPA -.089
0/4, 0R, 0HR, 1RBI, 0BB, 1SO

Royals player of the game: (3B) Alex Gordon - WPA +.030
1/2, 1R, 1HR, 1RBI, 1BB, 0SO
Royals lowest contributor: (SP) Brian Bannister - WPA -.103
4.2IP, 7H, 3R, 3ER, 1SO, 0HR

AJ Burnett: 7.1IP, 3H, 1R, 1ER, 3BB, 5SO, 1HR - W
Brian Wolfe: 0.1IP, 0H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 0SO, 0HR - H
Scott Downs: 0.1IP, 0H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 0SO, 0HR - H
Jeremy Accardo: 1.0IP, 1H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 1SO, 0HR - SV

Brian Bannister: 4.2IP, 7H, 3R, 3ER, 1SO, 0HR - L

If I didn't have a good lead at the top of my fantasy league I might get upset about a rough start like this from Brian Bannister. But my inner Blue Jay fan is pleased to see AJ producing after such a long stint on the DL. It's too late to get Toronto back into the race, but there needs to be concerted effort to keep Burnett healthy for their run next year. Accardo is filling in the void left by BJ Ryan nicely. It could be a long time before Toronto is firing on all J's - blue or otherwise.

Monday, August 13: Johan Santana (12-9)(MIN) vs. Felix Hernandez (8-6)(SEA)

El Presidente takes on the King. I'll admit it, the M's being in the Wild Card race (and with the division title not out of reach) has me a little excited. Taking on last year's AL Cy Young award winning pitcher will be a good test for the King.

Twins 3, Mariners 4

(Win Probability graphing by Fangraphs)
Twins player of the game: (C) Joe Mauer - WPA +.267
3/4, 0R, 0HR, 2RBI, 0BB, 0SO
Twins lowest contributor: (RP) Matt Guerrier - WPA -.240
1.0IP, 1H, 1R, 1ER, 0BB, 0SO, 1HR

Mariners player of the game: (1B) Richie Sexson - WPA +.480
2/4, 1R, 1HR, 3RBI, 0BB, 2SO
Mariners lowest contributor: (RF) Jose Guillen - WPA -.149
0/4, 1R, 0HR, 0RBI, 0BB, 1SO

Johan Santana: 7.0IP, 7H, 3R, 3ER, 0BB, 4SO, 0HR - ND
Matt Guerrier: 1.0IP, 1H, 1R, 1ER, 0BB, 0SO, 1HR - L

Felix Hernandez: 6.0IP, 4H, 1R, 1ER, 2BB, 6SO, 0HR - ND
John Parrish: 0.1IP, 1H, 2R, 2ER, 1BB, 0SO, 0HR - H
Sean Green: 1.2IP, 2H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 1SO, 0HR - BS
JJ Putz: 1.0IP, 1H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 1SO, 0HR - W

Now if that doesn't make this old Mariners fan tingle... King Felix out-pitched the best pitcher in baseball and the M's came away with a victory - albeit an ugly one. No decisions for either starter, a blown save and the win is credited to the closer. But it keeps Seattle in the hunt for a post season berth.

Mariners 8, Orioles 4

2007-08-08T20:40:00.001-07:00

Temperature at game time: 101-degrees

Believe it or not, that was cooler than the highs earlier on the day. And it was hardly a dry heat.

(Win Probability graphing by Fangraphs)
Mariners player of the game: (DH) Jose Vidro - WPA +.195
3/3, 2R, 1HR, 4RBI, 0BB, 0SO

Mariners lowest contributor: (C) Kenji Johjima - WPA -.081
0/4, 0R, 0HR, 0RBI, 0BB, 0SO

Orioles player of the game: (SS) Miguel Tejada - WPA +.135
3/4, 0R, 0HR, 1RBI, 0BB, 1SO

Orioles lowest contributor: (SP) Jeremy Guthrie - WPA -.436

4.0IP, 8H, 6R, 5ER, 0BB, 3SO, 2HR

Felix Hernandez: 6.2IP, 10H, 4R, 4ER, 0BB, 2SO, 0HR - W
George Sherrill: 0.2IP, 0H, 0R, 0ER, 1BB, 1SO, 0HR
Brandon Morrow: .01IP, 1H, 0R, 0ER, 1BB, 1SO, 0HR
JJ Putz: 1.1IP, 0H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 2SO, 0HR - SV

Jeremy Guthrie: 4.0IP, 8H, 6R, 5ER, 0BB, 3SO, 2HR - L
Rob Bell: 3.0IP, 4H, 2R, 2ER, 0BB, 0SO, 1HR
Paul Shuey: 1.0IP, 0H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 0SO, 0HR
John Parrish: 1.0IP, 3H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 0SO, 0HR

The heat didn't bother King Felix (and his 98 mile-an-hour fastball). He wasn't the strike out machine I had expected to see. But he was effective at mixing his speed and location and spreading those 10-hits around to limit the damage. The Mariner bullpen was a revelation. JJ Putz is a solid closer (surprisingly the best in the majors this year, in my opinion) and the bridge from starter to closer proved capable with Sherrill as the lefty in the pen followed by Morrow.

Guthrie did seem to be affected by the heat. While all his pitches were at or around 94 miles an hour about a week and a half ago against the Yankees, in this one he rarely had that kind of velocity. Though he was featuring a lot more sliders and curves.

Raul Ibanez saw exactly one pitch from Rob Bell and promptly deposited it in the bullpen out beyond center field. It's good to see him coming around at long last. If he keeps hitting like he has over the last couple of games and Jose Vidro continues to hit like a designated hitter (something he did in this game, not something he's done a lot of this year) the M's could prove to be a surprise in the division or wild card race. They really only need a steady, consistent push from here on out to get noticed.

3 Picks: Rockin' the Kazmir

2007-08-06T22:55:00.000-07:00

Wednesday, August 8: Carlos Zambrano (14-7)(CHC) vs. Roy Oswalt (11-6)(HOU)

With no Chris Carpenter this year these two are the undisputed aces of the NL Central. The Cubs are making a good run at the division title and could use a good series in Houston.

Cubs 2, Astros 8

(Win Probability graphing by Fangraphs)
Cubs player of the game: (3B) Mark DeRosa - WPA +.064
2/5, 0R, 0HR, 0RBI, 0BB, 0SO
Cubs lowest contributor: (SP) Carlos Zambrano - WPA -.196
5.2IP, 8H, 7R, 7ER, 3BB, 6SO, 2HR

Astros player of the game: (SP) Roy Oswalt - WPA +.288
6.0IP, 6H, 0R, 0ER, 4BB, 4SO, 0HR
Astros lowest contributor: (CF) Jason Lane - WPA -.063
0/5, 0R, 0HR, 0RBI, 0BB, 2SO

Carlos Zambrano: 5.2IP, 8H, 7R, 7ER, 3BB, 6SO, 2HR - L

Roy Oswalt: 6.0IP, 6H, 0R, 0ER, 4BB, 4SO, 0HR - W

Roy Oswalt pitched well enough for even the Astros' offense to pick him up. And Zambrano certainly did what he could to bring that offense to life. Bad game for the Cubs' ace at a time when they needed a good outing to take the division lead.

Thursday, August 9: Scott Kazmir (8-7)(TB) vs. Jeremy Bonderman (10-4)(DET)

The Tigers will be looking to rock the Kazmir in Motown. Bonderman has come a long way since his 6-19 rookie year back when the Tigers where far from contending in 2003.

Devil Rays 8, Tigers 1

(Win Probability graphing by Fangraphs)
Devil Rays player of the game: (SP) Scott Kazmir - WPA +.330
6.0IP, 3H, 0R, 0ER, 1BB, 7SO, 0HR
Devil Rays lowest contributor: (1B) Carlos Pena - WPA -.091
0/5, 0R, 0HR, 0RBI, 0BB, 4SO

Tigers player of the game: (DH) Gary Sheffield - WPA +.049
1/4, 0R, 0HR, 0RBI, 0BB, 0SO
Tigers lowest contributor: (SP) Jeremy Bonderman - WPA -.153
6.0IP, 10H, 7R, 7ER, 3BB, 4SO, 1HR

Scott Kazmir: 6.0IP, 3H, 0R, 0ER, 1BB, 7SO, 0HR - W

Jeremy Bonderman: 6.0IP, 10H, 7R, 7ER, 3BB, 4SO, 1HR - L

The Kazmir rocks! Six innings of work from each starter with a world of difference between them for results. Fanning 7 hitters works a lot better than allowing 7 earned runs. That kind of baseball math is easy.

Friday, August 10: Daisuke Matsuzaka (13-8)(BOS) vs. Brian Burres (5-5)(BAL)

Dice-K comes to my town.

Red Sox 5, Orioles 6(Win Probability Graphing by Fangraphs)
Red Sox player of the game: (SP) Diasuke Matsuzaka - WPA +.232
7.0IP, 4H, 1R, 1ER, 4BB, 7SO, 0HR
Red Sox lowest contributor: (RP) Hideki Okajima - WPA -.489
1.1IP, 2H, 1R, 1ER, 0BB, 1SO, 0HR

Orioles player of the game: (SP) Erik Bedard - WPA +.234
7.2IP, 4H, 3R, 3ER, 2BB, 7SO, 0HR
Orioles lowest contributor: (RP) Chad Bradford - WPA -.260
0.0IP, 2H, 2R, 2ER, 0BB, 0SO, 0HR

Daisuke Matsuzaka: 7.0IP, 4H, 1R, 1ER, 4BB, 7SO, 0HR - ND
Hideki Okajima: 1.1IP, 2H, 1R, 1ER, 0BB, 1SO, 0HR - BS, L

Erik Bedard: 7.2IP, 4H, 3R, 3ER, 2BB, 7SO, 0HR - ND
Jim Hoey: 1.1IP, 1H, 0R, 0ER, 1BB, 1SO, 0HR - W

Congratulations to Jim Hoey for his first career, major league win. This was an unusual game in that all the big positive and negative Win Probability points fell on the pitching with examples of great and poor pitching from both sides. This is especially surprising considering the kind of offense Boston typically features.

3 Picks: Snakes Look to Swallow Penny

2007-08-04T08:59:00.000-07:00

Sunday, August 5: Brandon Webb (10-8)(ARI) vs. Brad Penny (13-2)(LAD)

An ace versus ace match up that has the potential to be a great pitchers duel. The snakes find themselves precariously perched in first place and this is exactly the team they need to beat to build up a little breathing room at the top. Taking their game directly to Los Angeles with Brandon Webb on the mound is just about the only time they really control their own destiny.

Diamondbacks 3, Dodgers 0

(Win Probability graphing by Fangraphs)
Diamondbacks player of the game: (SP) Brandon Webb - WPA +.484
9.0IP, 7H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 4SO, 0HR
Diamondbacks lowest contributor: (SP) Brandon Webb (as hitter) - WPA -.080
0/4, 0R, 0HR, 0RBI, 0BB, 0SO

Dodgers player of the game: (RF) Andre Ethier - WPA +.069
2/3, 0R, 0HR, 0RBI, 0BB, 0SO
Dodgers lowest contributor: (SS) Rafael Furcal - WPA -.147
0/4, 0R, 0HR, 0RBI, 0BB, 0SO

Brandon Webb: 9.0IP, 7H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 4SO, 0HR - W

Brad Penny: 7.0IP, 6H, 3R, 3ER, 0BB, 5SO, 0HR - L

And the Snakes do manage to swallow the Penny as Webb was unbelievable. With a complete game effort, no walks and 4 strike outs on a 7-hit shutout. It's August and it might be time to take the D-Back threat of a post season run seriously.

Monday, August 6: Curt Schilling (6-4)(BOS) vs. Jered Weaver (7-5)(LAA)

The Angels and Red Sox have played some intensely watchable baseball over the years and this match up of veteran versus young phenom (with similar records this year) is as compelling as they come.

Red Sox 2, Angels 4

(Win Probability graphing by Fangraphs)
Red Sox player of the game: (RF) JD Drew - WPA - +.153
3/4, 0R, 0HR, 0RBI, 0BB, 0SO
Red Sox lowest contributor: (CF) Coco Crisp - WPA -.193
0/4, 0R, 0HR, 0RBI, 0BB, 2SO

Angels player of the game: (2B) Maicer Izturis - WPA +.160
1/4, 1R, 1HR, 1RBI, 0BB, 1SO
Angels lowest contributor: (LF) Reggie Willits - WPA -.055
0/2, 0R, 0HR, 0RBI, 0BB, 1SO

Curt Schilling: 6.0IP, 9H, 4R, 4ER, 0BB, 5SO, 1HR - L

Jered Weaver: 6.0IP, 6H, 2R, 2ER, 2BB, 4SO, 1HR - ND
Justin Speier: 1.0IP, 1H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 0SO, 0HR - W
Scot Shields: 1.0IP, 1H, 0R, 0ER, 1BB, 2SO, 0HR - H
Francisco Rodriguez: 1.0IP, 0H, 0R, 0ER, 1BB, 1SO, 0HR - SV

After more than 130 career saves at the age of 25 and a career ERA around 2.33 I'm starting to think that K-Rod is a decent closer. This was a good win for the Angels as it was a key long ball from Izturis that gave them enough offense to beat Schilling. If they were relying on Vlad to get things done every night then the Mariners might start to loom much larger in the rear view mirror.

Tuesday, August 7: Jake Peavy (11-5)(SD) vs. Anthony Reyes (1-10)(STL)

This is less of a pick-for-excellent match up as an eye-popping mismatch as Anthony Reyes takes his 6+ ERA and 1-10 record up against the leading candidate for the NL Cy Young Award. The defending world champion Cardinals are way, way out of contention and on paper Reyes looks like a sacrificial offering to the strike-out machine that is Jake Peavy.

Padres 4, Cardinals 0

(Win Probability graphing by Fangraphs)
Padres player of the game: (SP) Jake Peavy - WPA +.363
6.0IP, 3H, 0R, 0ER, 2BB, 5SO, 0HR
Padres lowest contributor: (CF) Mike Cameron - WPA -.129
0/4, 0R, 0HR, 0RBI, 1BB, 1SO

Cardinals player of the game: (SP) Anthony Reyes - WPA +.232
7.0IP, 6H, 1R, 1ER, 1BB, 2SO, 0HR
Cardinals lowest contributor: (3B) Scott Rolen - WPA -.250
0/4, 0R, 0HR, 0RBI, 0BB, 0SO

Jake Peavy: 6.0IP, 3H, 0R, 0ER, 2BB, 5SO, 0HR - W
Cla Meredith: 1.0IP, 1H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 0SO, 0HR - H
Heath Bell: 1.0IP, 1H, 0R, 0ER, 1BB, 1SO, 0HR - H

Anthony Reyes: 7.0IP, 6H, 1R, 1ER, 1BB, 2SO, 0HR - L

Reyes may go to 1-11 on the season with this loss. But you've got to tip your hat to him for pitching well enough to win most ball games. It was the anemic Cardinals offense that lost this one for him.

3 Picks: Into August with the Contenders (and the White Sox)

2007-08-01T19:24:00.000-07:00

Thursday, August 2: Jon Garland (8-7)(CHW) vs. Roger Clemens (3-5)(NYY)

If the Yankees continue to light up the White Sox they way they have been in this home series then even the Rocket should pick up a win in this one. But I don't think Garland will be quite the pushover the Yankee offense has seen over the last couple of games.

White Sox 13, Yankees 9

(Win Probability graphing by Fangraphs)
White Sox player of the game: (RF) Jermaine Dye - WPA +.381
4/5, 3R, 2HR, 4RBI, 0BB, 1SO
White Sox lowest contributor: (SP) Jon Garland - WPA -.301
1.1IP, 9H, 8R, 8ER, 0BB, 1SO, 1HR

Yankees player of the game: (C) Jorge Posada - WPA +.176
2/4, 1R, 0HR, 2RBI, 0BB, 1SO
Yankees lowest contributor: (SP) Roger Clemens - WPA -.419
1.2IP, 9H, 8R, 3ER, 0BB, 0SO, 0HR

Jon Garland: 1.1IP, 9H, 8R, 8ER, 0BB, 1SO, 1HR - ND
Boone Logan: 2.0IP, 2H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 2SO, 0HR - W
Matt Thornton: 0.2IP, 0H, 0R, 0ER, 1BB, 2SO, 0HR - H
Mike MacDougal: 2.0IP, 1H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 3SO, 0HR - H

Roger Clemens: 1.2IP, 9H, 8R, 3ER, 0BB, 0SO, 0HR - ND
Jeff Karstens: 3.1IP, 5H, 3R, 3ER, 0BB, 1SO, 1HR - L

One doesn't expect a Jon Garland/Roger Clemens match up to turn into a total slug-fest as neither starter could pitch their way out of the second inning. And when it comes down to a battle of the White Sox bullpen versus the Yankees bullpen after tying everything up at 8 runs apiece after two innings my money is on the White Sox relievers. There was a total of 12 pitchers used in this game. That is ugly. Though one thing jumps out at me from Roger Clemens line: 8-runs, 3-earned runs. Only 3 of 8 were earned? What does that say about the Bombers' defense? Ugly, ugly game.

Friday, August 3: Jeff Francis (11-5)(COL) vs. John Smoltz (10-5)(ATL)

Jeff Francis can and will test the patience of the Braves' bats in this one. It should be interesting to see how the Francis-Teixeira at-bats shake out in this one. I can't wait to see how well Teixeira tees off of National League pitching as a newly acquired rental for Atlanta.

Rockies 9, Braves 2

(Win Probability graphing by Fangraphs)
Rockies player of the game: (SP) Jeff Francis - WPA +.226
6.0IP, 6H, 1R, 1ER, 0BB, 8SO, 0HR
Rockies lowest contributor: (SP) Jeff Francis (as hitter) - WPA -.057
0/3, 0R, 0HR, 0RBI, 0BB, 1SO

Braves player of the game: (2B) Kelly Johnson - WPA +.087
2/3, 0R, 0HR, 0RBI, 1BB, 0SO
Braves lowest contributor: (SP) John Smoltz - WPA -.253
6.2IP, 9H, 7R, 5ER, 4BB, 5SO, 1HR

Jeff Francis: 6.0IP, 6H, 1R, 1ER, 0BB, 8SO, 0HR - W

John Smoltz: 6.2IP, 9H, 7R, 5ER, 4BB, 5SO, 1HR - L

An impressive outing for Jeff Francis. I continue to be impressed by his approach with the off-speed stuff. And John Smoltz actually had things in hand until the seventh inning. Smoltz didn't have his best stuff today, but he battled and was simply left out on the mound a bit too long.

Saturday, August 4: Daisuke Matsuzaka (12-8)(BOS) vs. Jarrod Washburn (8-7)(SEA)

Dice-K gets another chance against the Seattle Mariners. And this time he doesn't match up against the King as Washburn looks to work on his home record.

Red Sox 4, Mariners 3

(Win Probability graphing by Fangraphs)
Red Sox player of the game: (SP) Daisuke Matsuzaka - WPA +.243
7.0IP, 6H, 2R, 2ER, 2BB, 10SO, 2HR
Red Sox lowest contributor: (2B) Dustin Pedroia - WPA -.114
0/4, 0R, 0HR, 0RBI, 1BB, 0SO

Mariners player of the game: (C) Kenji Johjima - WPA +.099
2/4, 0R, 0HR, 1RBI, 0BB, 0SO
Mariners lowest contributor: (CF) Ichiro Suzuki - WPA -.231
0/5, 0R, 0HR, 0RBI, 0BB, 1SO

Daisuke Matsuzaka: 7.0IP, 6H, 2R, 2ER, 2BB, 10SO, 2HR - W
Eric Gagne: 1.0IP, 3H, 1R, 1ER, 0BB, 1SO, 0HR - H
Jonathan Papelbon: 1.0IP, 0H, 0R, 0ER, 2BB, 2SO, 0HR - SV

Jarrod Washburn: 6.1IP, 8H, 4R, 4ER, 2BB, 4SO, 0HR - L

Whatever dim hope the Yankees may have entertained of catching up to the Red Sox in the division race evaporated completely when Boston acquired Eric Gagne at the trade deadline. And for the BoSox pitching crew this game unfolded exactly the way it was engineered: Dice-K rings up 10 strikeouts in 7 innings of work, Gagne pitches one inning for the hold and the Papelbon Speed Shop comes in to slam the door. The thing that makes the BoSox even more terrifying is the fact that they have so many other capable arms in the rotation and bullpen that weren't on display in this outing.

Pythagorean Win % Projections - AL West

2007-07-30T22:02:00.000-07:00

The AL West division is the one I feel closest to, even if my current geography is somewhat remote to that region. Go Mariners.

	AL West - Projections as of July 30, 2007
	projected final record based on win%
1	Los Angeles Angels	.587	95 - 67
2	Seattle Mariners	.558	90 - 72
3	Oakland Athletics	.462	75 - 87
4	Texas Rangers	.438	71 - 91

	AL West - Projections as of July 30, 2007
	projected final record based on Pythagorean Win%
1	Los Angeles Angels	.553	90 - 72
2	Seattle Mariners	.508	82 - 80
3	Oakland Athletics	.501	81 - 81
4	Texas Rangers	.452	73 - 89

Unfortunately, the Seattle Mariners are currently performing well above their Pythagorean projection and are probably headed for a correction if they continue to score and allow runs at their current rate. After running these numbers for all the divisions in the majors it looks like the Yankees will be in the Wild Card race for the remainder of the season and will probably weasel their way into the post season via that berth. But with the M's just 3 games behind the Angels at this point I can hope against probability for now.

3 Picks: All Hail King Felix

2007-07-29T13:18:00.000-07:00

Monday, July 30: Cole Hamels (11-5)(PHI) vs. Ted Lilly (11-4)(CHC)

Two of the NL's 11-game winning starters go head to head in this one. I haven't tuned into enough Cubs games this year. And that's a shame as they're in a better position to make a run at the postseason than the Phillies are at this point.

Phillies 4, Cubs 1

(Win Probability graphing by Fangraphs)
Phillies player of the game: (SP) Cole Hamels - WPA +.351
8.0IP, 3H, 1R, 1ER, 2BB, 8SO, 1HR
Phillies lowest contributor: (RF) Shane Victorino - WPA -.080
0/3, 0R, 0HR, 0RBI, 0BB, 1SO

Cubs player of the game: (SS) Ryan Theriot - WPA +.097
2/4, 1R, 1HR, 1RBI, 0BB, 0SO
Cubs lowest contributor: (SP) Ted Lilly
5.0IP, 7H, 4R, 4ER, 3BB, 3SO, 2HR

Cole Hamels: 8.0IP, 3H, 1R, 1ER, 2BB, 8SO, 1HR - W
Brett Myers: 1.0IP, 0H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 1SO, 0HR - SV

Ted Lilly: 5.0IP, 7H, 4R, 4ER, 3BB, 3SO, 2HR - L

Outstanding pitching by Cole Hamels in a game that was satisfying to watch. The injuries to Shane Victorino and Michael Bourn were alarming. On the positive side, latest trade acquisition Tadahito Iguchi is filling in much better than expected for the injured Chase Utley. So much so that I've added him to my fantasy roster and moved Ryan Theriot over to short stop.

Tuesday, July 31: Erik Bedard (10-4)(BAL) vs. Josh Beckett (13-4)(BOS)

It's the major league strikeout leader taking on one of the front runners of the AL Cy Young Award.

Orioles 5, Red Sox 3

(Win Probability graphing by Fangraphs)
Orioles player of the game: (SP) Erik Bedard - WPA +.190
6.0IP, 2H, 2R, 2ER, 5BB, 6SO, 1HR
Orioles lowest contributor: (RF) Nick Markakis - WPA -.109
0/3, 0R, 0HR, 0RBI, 1BB, 2SO

Red Sox player of the game: (DH) David Ortiz - WPA +.237
3/4, 2R, 2HR, 3RBI, 0BB, 0SO
Red Sox lowest contributor: (SS) Julio Lugo - WPA -.309
0/5, 0R, 0HR, 0RBI, 0BB, 2SO

Erik Bedard: 6.0IP, 2H, 2R, 2ER, 5BB, 6SO, 1HR - W
Rob Bell: 1.0IP, 1H, 1R, 1ER, 0BB, 2SO, 1HR - H
Chad Bradford: 1.1IP, 1H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 0SO, 0HR - H
Jamie Walker: 0.2IP, 0H, 0R, 0ER, 1BB, 0SO, 0HR - SV

Josh Beckett: 8.0IP, 9H, 5R, 5ER, 2BB, 6SO, 1HR - L

The Win Points Added may peg Nick Markakis as the "lowest contributor" in this game offensively. But defensively he made one of the more impressive catches I've ever seen as he fell into the stands and managed to be the one to come away with a cleanly caught ball despite all the Red Sox fans trying to catch that same ball. And he was even physically below most of the outstretched hands.

Wednesday, August 1: Jered Weaver (7-5)(LAA) vs. Felix Hernandez (7-6)(SEA)

Unlike past seasons, the Mariners could conceivably catch the Angels in the division standings by the end of September. And it's starters like King Felix that make something that was once improbable into a compelling reason to tune in as he matches up against the Angels' own young phenom starting pitcher in the form of Jered Weaver. Which makes for a better match up than if the M's pitted brother against brother with Jeff Weaver inexplicably in that M's rotation.

Angels 7, Mariners 8 (12)

(Win Probability graphing by Fangraphs)
Angels player of the game: (CF) Gary Matthews Jr. - WPA +.371
2/4, 1R, 1HR, 2RBI, 1BB, 1SO
Angels lowest contributor: (RP) Justin Speier - WPA -.352
0.1IP, 3H, 1R, 1ER, 0BB, 1SO, 0HR

Mariners player of the game: (RP) Brandon Morrow - WPA +.305
1.1IP, 1H, 0R, 0ER, 1BB, 2SO, 0HR
Mariners lowest contributor: (Util) Willie Bloomquist - WPA -.167
0/0, 0R, 0HR, 0RBI, 0BB, 0SO

Jered Weaver: 6.0IP, 12H, 6R, 6ER, 1BB, 1SO, 0HR - ND
Justin Speier: 0.1IP, 3H, 1R, 1ER, 0BB, 1SO, 0HR - L

Felix Hernandez: 8.0IP, 6H, 4R, 4ER, 0BB, 7SO, 1HR - ND
JJ Putz: 1.0IP, 4H, 3R, 3ER, 0BB, 0SO, 1HR - BS
Eric O'Flaherty: 0.1IP, 0H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 0SO, 0HR - W

Pythagorean Win % Projections - AL East

2007-07-29T09:02:00.001-07:00

Here's a look at the current Pythagorean Win % projections for the AL East as of July 29. First, here's the current win percentage projections:

	AL East - Projections as of July 29, 2007
	projected final record based on win%
1	Boston Red Sox	.615	100 - 62
2	New York Yankees	.529	86 - 76
3	Toronto Blue Jays	.495	80 - 82
4	Baltimore Orioles	.476	77 - 85
5	Tampa Bay Devil Rays	.369	60 - 102

And here's the Pythagorean Win % projections:

	AL East - Projections as of July 29, 2007
	projected final record based on Pythagorean Win%
1	Boston Red Sox	.623	101 - 61
2	New York Yankees	.597	97 - 65
3	Toronto Blue Jays	.526	85 - 77
4	Baltimore Orioles	.514	83 - 79
5	Tampa Bay Devil Rays	.363	59 - 103

A couple of interesting things emerge from these projections. The Pythagorean projections show no change in the current division standings from the current state. And with the exception of the Tampa Bay Devil Rays, all the AL East teams are currently under performing their Pythagorean win rate. But with the Yankees projected to win 97 games at their current ratio of runs scored versus runs allowed they actually have a better chance at passing the Cleveland Indians for the Wild Card Berth than I would have thought (or wished).

Yankees 2, Orioles 4

2007-07-28T07:47:00.000-07:00

(Win Probability graphing by Fangraphs)
Yankees player of the game: (2B) Robinson Cano - WPA +.091
1/4, 0R, 0HR, 1RBI, 0BB, 1SO
Yankees lowest contributor: (C) Jorge Posada - WPA -.182
0/4, 0R, 0HR, 0RBI, 0BB, 2SO

Orioles player of the game: (C) Ramon Hernandez - WPA +.237
3/3, 0R, 0HR, 2RBI, 1BB, 0SO
Orioles lowest contributor: (SS) Miguel Tejada - WPA -.122
0/4, 0R, 0HR, 0RBI, 0BB, 1SO

Andy Pettitte: 7.0IP, 8H, 3R, 3ER, 3BB, 5SO, 0HR - L
Scott Proctor: 0.2IP, 2H, 1R, 1ER, 0BB, 0SO, 0HR
Ron Villone: 0.1IP, 0H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 0SO, 0HR

Jeremy Guthrie: 6.0IP, 6H, 2R, 2ER, 3BB, 4SO, 0HR - W
John Parrish: 0.2IP, 0H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 0SO, 0HR - H
Paul Shuey: 0.1IP, 0H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 0SO, 0HR - H
Jamie Walker: 1.0IP, 0H, 0R, 0ER, 1BB, 0SO, 0HR - H
Chad Bradford: 1.0IP, 1H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 0SO, 0HR - SV

Even as the New York Yankees traverse the ragged edge toward mathematical elimination from the playoffs this year there is a completely different energy at the ballpark when they take to the field. As I sat out by left field in the stands in Baltimore the Yankees jerseys and vocal fans outnumbered the local orange and black by a wide margin. Not exactly baseball's more introspective fan base, the bleacher creatures of Baltimore were loud, passionate, and prone to logic-free cheers at oddly chosen moments. My personal favorite is the one yelling "let's go, Yankees" as he's making an early departure from a losing effort. It came off as an invitation to abandon the game, as in "let's go back to Jersey."

On the field, the Bronx Bombers exude professionalism and as much as I cheer against them out of habit they are still one of the more impressive offensive lineups around.

Andy Pettitte isn't the devastating force on the mound he used to be. Yet even as his control gets away from him a bit he remains an above average major league starting pitcher capable of logging in quality starts and giving his offense a chance. And he'll eat up innings, which is a good thing for the Yankee's bullpen down the stretch.

From my perspective, Jeremy Guthrie seemed to be throwing fastballs about 95% of the time. And if the stadium radar gun is to be believed, they were all coming in around 94 miles per hour. While the ability to repeat pitches may be a virtue, the fact that the Yankee offense wasn't just squaring up and teeing off on his heaters indicates he must be spotting his pitches all over the place in and around the strike zone. He'll need to mix in more off speed offerings and sliders as hitters start to figure him out. But it's hard to argue with the effectiveness he showed in this outing.

3 Picks: So Good to See Jon Lester Back and Healthy

2007-07-26T07:22:00.000-07:00

Friday, July 27: Nate Robertson (6-7)(DET) vs. Jered Weaver (6-5)(LAA)

I'm surprised to see Nate at 6-7. He was one of the Tigers' under-rated arms in that stellar rotation last year. Likewise, Jered Weaver is a bit off his outstanding rookie numbers from a year ago as well.

Tigers 6, Angels 11

(Win Probability graphing by Fangraphs)
Tigers player of the game: (2B) Placido Polanco - WPA +.174
5/5, 2R, 1HR, 1RBI, 0BB, 0SO
Tigers lowest contributor: (SP) Nate Robertson - WPA -.478
5.2IP, 10H, 8R, 8ER, 2BB, 6SO, 0HR

Angels player of the game: (CF) Gary Matthews Jr. - WPA +.173
3/4, 2R, 0HR, 3RBI, 0BB, 1SO
Angels lowest contributor of the game: (SP) Jered Weaver - WPA -.186
5.1IP, 11H, 6R, 6ER, 1BB, 3SO, 2HR

Nate Robertson: 5.2IP, 10H, 8R, 8ER, 2BB, 6SO, 0HR - L

Jered Weaver: 5.1IP, 11H, 6R, 6ER, 1BB, 3SO, 2HR - W
Justin Speier: 1.2IP, 1H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 2SO, 0HR - H

This was a surprisingly poorly pitched game for both starters. Ultimately, it was the Angels' offense that helped pick up Weaver's 11-hit, 6-run effort to give him the win.

Saturday, July 28: Jon Lester (1-0)(BOS) vs. James Shields (8-6)(TB)

What does the fantasy team owner do when they have both of these starters on their roster? Shields had his worst start ever against the Yankees last time out and needs to get back on track as the D-Rays ace. And Jon Lester's return from battling cancer is one of the more inspiring stories this season.

Red Sox 12, Devil Rays 6 (12)

(Win Probability graphing by Fangraphs)
Red Sox player of the game: (SS) Julio Lugo - WPA +.519
2/5, 2R, 0HR, 2RBI, 2BB, 2SO
Red Sox lowest contributor: (RP) Jonathan Papelbon - WPA -.403
1.0IP, 2H, 2R, 2ER, 0BB, 1SO, 1HR

Devil Rays player of the game: (LF) Jonny Gomes - WPA +.432
2/5, 2R, 2HR, 3RBI, 0BB, 1SO
Devil Rays lowest contributor: (RP) Brian Stokes - WPA -.343
0.2IP, 1H, 4R, 4ER, 3BB, 0SO, 0HR

Jon Lester: 6.2IP, 6H, 4R, 4ER, 1BB, 3SO, 2HR - ND
Julian Tavarez: 0.1IP, 0H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 0SO, 0HR - H
Hideki Okajima: 1.0IP, 1H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 1SO, 0HR - H
Jonathan Papelbon: 1.0IP, 2H, 2R, 2ER, 0BB, 1SO, 1HR - BS
Kyle Snyder: 2.0IP, 1H, 0R, 0ER, 1BB, 2SO, 0HR - W

James Shields: 5.0IP, 6H, 3R, 3ER, 1BB, 7SO, 0HR - ND
Brian Stokes: 0.2IP, 1H, 4R, 4ER, 3BB, 0SO, 0HR - L

So what does the fantasy league manager who started both Jon Lester and James Shields get from this game? Bubkus. Two no decisions and 5.40 ERA's from each starter as this game went toward the wee hours of extra frames before the D-Rays bullpen finally blew out. At least with the Yankees losing again today this helps to widen the gap with New York.

Sunday, July 29: Daisuke Matsuzaka (12-7)(BOS) vs. Scott Kazmir (7-7)(TB)

Dice-K versus Scott-K in Tampa Bay. Oh yeah.

Red Sox 2, Devil Rays 5

(Win Probability graphing by Fangraphs)
Red Sox player of the game: (SP) Daisuke Matsuzaka - WPA +.165
6.1IP, 8H, 2R, 2ER, 1BB, 6SO, 1HR
Red Sox lowest contributor: (DH) David Ortiz - WPA -.198
0/4, 0R, 0HR, 0RBI, 0BB, 1SO

Devil Rays player of the game: (SP) Scott Kazmir - WPA +.363
6.0IP, 6H, 0R, 0ER, 1BB, 8SO, 0HR
Devil Rays lowest contributor: (DH) Greg Norton - WPA -.110
0/4, 0R, 0HR, 0RBI, 0BB, 0SO

Daisuke Matsuzaka: 6.1IP, 8H, 2R, 2ER, 1BB, 6SO, 1HR - L

Scott Kazmir: 6.0IP, 6H, 0R, 0ER, 1BB, 8SO, 0HR - ND
Gary Glover: 2.1IP, 2H, 2R, 2ER, 1BB, 3SO, 2HR - W

I find it peculiar that the pitcher who allows nearly one home run per inning pitched comes away with the win while Matsuzaka gets charged with the loss despite pitching very well.

3 Picks: Dice-K Meets the CC

2007-07-23T17:56:00.000-07:00

Tuesday, July 24: Daisuke Matsuzaka (11-7)(BOS) vs. CC Sabathia (13-4)(CLE)

This could be the match up of the year. A good day to be a fan in Cleveland.

Red Sox 1, Indians 0

(Win Probability graphing by Fangraphs)
Red Sox player of the game: (SP) Diasuke Matsuzaka - WPA +.500

Red Sox lowest contributor: (CF) Coco Crisp - WPA -.118
0/4, 0R, 0HR, 0RBI, 0BB, 2SO

Indians player of the game: (SP) CC Sabathia - WPA +.259

Indians lowest contributor: (SS) Jhonny Peralta - WPA -.248
0/4, 0R, 0HR, 0RBI, 0BB, 1SO

Daisuke Matsuzaka: 7.0IP, 4H, 0R, 0ER, 3BB, 5SO, 0HR - W
Hideki Okajima: 1.0IP, 0H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 0SO, 0HR - H
Jonathan Papelbon: 1.0IP, 0H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 2SO - SV

CC Sabathia: 7.0IP, 5H, 1R, 1ER, 0BB, 7SO, 0HR - L

Well pitched all around, this probably was one of the best games of the season. Dice-K and the Boston bullpen managed a shutout exactly when they needed it against the Cleveland ace.

Wednesday, July 25: Scott Olsen (8-7)(FLA) vs. Brandon Webb (8-8)(ARI)

I seriously doubt Olsen will make this start. And if the reports of his actions have any truth he shouldn't be making any starts until he gets some serious help. Webb, however, is worthy of rooting for.

Marlins 0, Diamondbacks 7

(Win Probability graphing by Fangraphs)
Marlins player of the game: (3B) Miguel Cabrera - WPA +.080
1/3, 0R, 0HR, 0RBI, 1BB, 0SO
Marlins lowest contributor: (SP) Scott Olsen - WPA -.295
5.0IP, 11H, 7R, 7ER, 3BB, 4SO, 1HR

Diamondbacks player of the game: (SP) Brandon Webb - WPA +.203
7.0IP, 6H, 0R, 0ER, 3BB, 8SO, 0HR
Diamondbacks lowest contributor: (SP) Brandon Webb (as a hitter) - WPA -.044
0/3, 0R, 0HR, 0RBI, 0BB, 1SO

Scott Olsen: 5.0IP, 11H, 7R, 7ER, 3BB, 4SO, 1HR - L

Brandon Webb: 7.0IP, 6H, 0R, 0ER, 3BB, 8SO, 0HR - W

So Olsen posts bail and makes a terrible start. I can't imagine the Marlins tolerating him much longer. Webb, on the other hand, was brilliant as he shut out the fish.

Thursday, July 26: Justin Verlander (11-3)(DET) vs. John Danks (6-7)(CHW)

At 11-3 and a no-hitter I'm beginning to think that last year's AL Rookie of the Year might be pretty good.

Tigers 3, White Sox 4

(Win Probability graphing by Fangraphs)
Tigers player of the game: (SS) Omar Infante - WPA +.176
1/1, 2R, 1HR, 1RBI, 1BB, 0SO
Tigers lowest contributor: (RP) Zach Miner - WPA -.309
1.0IP, 1H, 1R, 0ER, 1BB, 0SO, 0HR

White Sox player of the game: (LF) Scott Podsednik - WPA +.314
2/4, 1R, 0HR, 1RBI, 0BB, 1SO
White Sox lowest contributor: (C) AJ Pierzynski - WPA -.163
1/4, 1R, 0HR, 0RBI, 0BB, 1SO

Justin Verlander: 7.0IP, 3H, 3R, 3ER, 3BB, 5SO, 0HR - ND
Zach Miner: 1.0IP, 1H, 1R, 0ER, 1BB, 0SO, 0HR - BS, L

John Danks: 6.2IP, 6H, 3R, 3ER, 2BB, 5SO, 1HR - ND
Bobby Jenks: 1.0IP, 0H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 2SO, 0HR - W

Quality starts from both starters and they both come away with no decisions. Zach pretty much lost this one single handed.

3 Picks: Shields and Pettitte Get a Rematch

2007-07-21T00:02:00.000-07:00

Saturday, July 21: Jered Weaver (6-5)(LAA) vs. Boof Bonser (5-6)(MIN)

Angels 2, Twins 5

(Win Probability graphing by Fangraphs)
Angels player of the game: (2B) Maicer Izturis - WPA +.112
2/3, 0R, 0HR, 0RBI, 0BB, 0SO
Angels lowest contributor: (RP) Scot Shields - WPA -.359
0.1IP, 3H, 3R, 3ER, 1BB, 0SO, 1HR

Twins player of the game: (SP) Boof Bonser - WPA +.373
7.2IP, 5H, 2R, 2ER, 0BB, 1SO, 0HR
Twins lowest contributor: (RP) Pat Neshek - WPA -.162
0.1IP, 1H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 0SO, 0HR

Jered Weaver: 7.0IP, 5H, 2R, 2ER, 1BB, 2SO, 2HR - ND
Scot Shields: 0.1IP, 3H, 3R, 3ER, 1BB, 0SO, 1HR - L

Boof Bonser: 7.2IP, 5H, 2R, 2ER, 0BB, 1SO, 0HR - ND
Pat Neshek: 0.1IP, 1H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 0SO, 0HR - BS, W
Joe Nathan: 1.0IP, 1H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 0SO, 0HR - SV

This game saw shoddy relief pitching on both sides as Scot Shields and Pat Neshek both undid their respective starters' efforts in just one-third of an inning of work. And in Neshek's case he records both the blown save and a win. Which I see has a flaw in how both the save and win stats are awarded.

Sunday, July 22: James Shields (8-5)(TB) vs. Andy Pettitte (5-6)(NYY)

Devil Rays 4, Yankees 21

(Win Probability graphing by Fangraphs)
Devil Rays player of the game: (2B) Josh Wilson - WPA +.155
2/4, 0R, 0HR, 2RBI, 0BB, 1SO
Devil Rays lowest contributor: (SP) James Shields - WPA -.557
3.1IP, 10H, 10R, 10ER, 4BB, 1SO, 1HR

Yankees player of the game: (SS) Derek Jeter - WPA +.122
1/3, 2R, 0HR, 1RBI, 1BB, 0SO
Yankees lowest contributor: (SP) Andy Pettitte - WPA -.097
6.0IP, 8H, 3R, 3ER, 3BB, 8SO, 1HR

James Shields: 3.1IP, 10H, 10R, 10ER, 4BB, 1SO, 1HR - L
Andy Pettitte: 6.0IP, 8H, 3R, 3ER, 3BB, 8SO, 1HR - W

Pettitte wins on a quality start with a little help from an offensive onslaught form the bombers. I'll be in the stands at his next start trying to figure out if there's any trace of his once dominant form.

Monday, July 23: Chris Capuano (5-6)(MIL) vs. Aaron Harang (10-2)(CIN)

Brewers 1, Reds 2

(Win Probability graphing by Fangraphs)
Brewers player of the game: (SP) Chris Capuano WPA +.442
8.0IP, 7H, 1R, 1ER, 0BB, 1HR
Brewers lowest contributor: (C) Johnny Estrada - WPA -.554
0/5, 0R, 0HR, 0RBI, 0BB, 1SO

Reds player of the game: (SP) Aaron Harang - WPA +.727
10.0IP, 7H, 1R, 1ER, 0BB, 10SO, 1HR
Reds lowest contibutor: (CF) Ryan Freel - WPA -.160
0/5, 0R, 0HR, 0RBI, 0BB, 2SO

Chris Capuano: 8.0IP, 7H, 1R, 1ER, 0BB, 1HR - ND
Grant Balfour: 0.0IP, 1H, 1R, 1ER, 2BB, 0SO, 0HR - L

Aaron Harang: 10.0IP, 7H, 1R, 1ER, 0BB, 10SO, 1HR - ND
Jared Burton: 0.2IP, 0H, 0R, 0ER, 1BB, 0SO, 0HR - W

Harang throws 10 innings and gets a no decision? That's a tough break.

3 Picks: Pulled into Red Sox Nation

2007-07-17T18:09:00.000-07:00

Wednesday, July 18: John Maine (10-5)(NYM) vs. Greg Maddux (7-7)(SD)

The Mets' great hurler of right now squares off against one of history's greatest pitchers. And they do it in the pitching friendly confines of Petco Park.

Mets 5, Padres 5

(Win Probability graphing by Fangraphs)
Mets player of the game: (3B) David Wright - WPA +.283
1/4, 1R, 1HR, 3RBI, 0BB, 1SO
Mets lowest contributor: (RP) Joe Smith - WPA -.254
0.2IP, 2H, 1R, 1ER, 1BB, 1SO, 0HR

Padres player of the game: (2B) Geoff Blum - WPA +.273
2/3, 0R, 0HR, 1RBI, 1BB, 0SO
Padres lowest contributor: (RP) Scott Linebrink WPA -.316
1.0IP, 1H, 3R, 3ER, 2BB, 0SO, 1HR

John Maine: 6.0IP, 7H, 4R, 4ER, 2BB, 5SO, 2HR - ND
Joe Smith: 0.2IP, 2H, 1R, 1ER, 1BB, 1SO, 0HR - L

Greg Maddux: 5.0IP, 4H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 6SO, 0HR - ND
Heath Bell: 0.2IP, 0H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 0SO, 0HR - H
Scott Linebrink: 1.0IP, 1H, 3R, 3ER, 2BB, 0SO, 1HR - BS, W
Trevor Hoffman: 1.0IP, 0H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 1SO, 0HR - SV

With the Mets' starting pitching something like "John Maine, then pray for rain" it hurts when they don't get a victory on days when he starts. I've always felt it was an odd anomaly that a pitcher can blow a save yet record a win as Scott Linebrink does in this game. Of all the pitchers the Padres used in this game, he's the one who contributed the least toward this victory even as he gets the credit for it.

Thursday, July 19: Javier Vazquez (6-5)(CHW) vs. Daisuke Matsuzaka (11-6)(BOS)

The gyro-ball saga takes a turn toward the laundry with a battle of the Sox. Bring plenty of fabric softener as these guys both throw pretty hard.

White Sox 4, Red Sox 2

(Win Probability graphing by Fangraphs)
White Sox player of the game: (RP) Ryan Bukvich - WPA +.286
1.2IP, 1H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 1SO, 0HR
White Sox lowest contributor: (3B) Josh Fields - WPA -.144
0/4, 0R, 0HR, 0RBI, 0BB, 1SO

Red Sox player of the game: (RP) Manny Delcarmen - WPA +.154
1.0IP, 1H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 1SO, 0HR
Red Sox lowest contributor: (SP) Daisuke Matsuzaka - WPA -.201
5.0IP, 2H, 3R, 3ER, 6BB, 6SO, 0HR

Javier Vazquez: 6.1IP, 9H, 2R, 2ER, 2BB, 5SO, 0HR - W
Ryan Bukvich: 1.2IP, 1H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 1SO, 0HR - H
Bobby Jenks: 1.0IP, 0H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 1SO, 0HR - SV

Daisuke Matsuzaka: 5.0IP, 2H, 3R, 3ER, 6BB, 6SO, 0HR - L

This says it all.

Friday, July 20: Jose Contreras (5-11)(CHW) vs. Josh Beckett (12-3)(BOS)

Jose Contreras is 5-11? That sums up the slide of the Chicago White Sox right there when someone of Contreras talent and ability is underachieving at that magnitude. At the other end of the magnitude toward pitching above expectations is Josh Beckett. While Dice-K is the story of the year in the American League it's actually Beckett that keeps me glued to more Red Sox games.

White Sox 3, Red Sox 10

(Win Probability graphing by Fangraphs)
White Sox player of the game: (DH) Jim Thome - WPA +.181
1/3, 1R, 1HR, 3RBI, 1BB, 1SO
White Sox lowest contributor: (SP) Jose Contreras - WPA -.374
7.1IP, 10H, 10R, 10ER, 3BB, 2SO, 1HR

Red Sox player of the game: (CF) Coco Crisp - WPA +.185
1/5, 1R, 0HR, 3RBI, 0BB, 2SO
Red Sox lowest contributor: (2B) Dustin Pedroia - WPA -.089
1/5, 0R, 0HR, 0RBI, 0BB, 0SO

Jose Contreras: 7.1IP, 10H, 10R, 10ER, 3BB, 2SO, 1HR - L

Josh Beckett: 6.0IP, 4H, 3R, 3ER, 2BB, 10SO, 1HR - W
Mike Timlin: 1.0IP, 0H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 1SO, 0HR - H
Hideki Okajima: 1.0IP, 0H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 0SO, 0HR - H

Beckett helps right the ship for the Red Sox. But he had a little help from Contreras giving up 10 earned runs.

3 Picks: A Couple Games in Domes and A Shiny Penny in LA

2007-07-14T21:50:00.000-07:00

Sunday, July 15: Dan Haren (10-3)(OAK) vs. Boof Bonser (5-6)(MIN)

Athletics 3, Twins 4

(Win Probability graphing by Fangraphs)
Athletics player of the game: (CF) Mark Kotsay - WPA +.198
1/2, 1R, 0HR, 0RBI, 2BB, 0SO
Athletics lowest contributor: (RP) Joe Kennedy - WPA -.357
0.0IP, 2H, 1R, 1ER, 1BB, 0SO, 0HR

Twins player of the game: (RP) Pat Neshek - WPA +.225
1.0IP, 0H, 0R, 0ER, 1BB, 2SO, 0HR
Twins lowest contributor: (RP) Matt Guerrier - WPA -.195
0.2IP, 1H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 1SO, 0HR

Dan Haren: 6.0IP, 7H, 2R, 2ER, 3BB, 3SO, 0HR - ND
Santiago Casilla: 1.1IP, 2H, 1R, 1ER, 0BB, 0SO, 1HR - BS
Joe Kennedy: 0.0IP, 2H, 1R, 1ER, 1BB, 0SO, 0HR - L

Boof Bonser: 6.1IP, 5H, 3R, 3ER, 3BB, 6SO, 1HR - ND
Matt Guerrier: 0.2IP, 1H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 1SO, 0HR - BS
Pat Neshek: 1.0IP, 0H, 0R, 0ER, 1BB, 2SO, 0HR - W

So Twins' reliever Pat Neshek records the win in a game that had blown saves for each side. Good for him. It's hard not to root for the side-arm reliever who has clearly earned - and enjoys - his success.

Monday, July 16: Jamie Moyer (7-7)(PHI) vs. Brad Penny (10-1)(LAD)

Phillies 3, Dodgers 10

(Win Probability graphing by Fangraphs)
Phillies player of the game: (SS) Jimmy Rollins - WPA +.057
0/2, 1R, 0HR, 0RBI, 1BB, 0SO
Phillies lowest contributor: (SP) Jamie Moyer - WPA -.371
5.1IP, 10H, 10R, 10ER, 2BB, 4SO, 2HR

Dodgers player of the game: (CF) Juan Pierre - WPA +.156
2/4, 2R, 0HR, 0RBI, 0BB, 0SO
Dodgers lowest contributor: TIE (RF) Matt Kemp - WPA -.016
1/4, 1R, 1HR, 3RBI, 0BB, 0SO
& (LF) Andre Ethier - WPA -.016
1/4, 1R, 0HR, 1RBI, 0BB, 0SO

Jamie Moyer: 5.1IP, 10H, 10R, 10ER, 2BB, 4SO, 2HR - L

Brad Penny: 7.0IP, 4H, 1R, 1ER, 3BB, 8SO, 0HR - W

Jamie Moyer is one of my all-time favorite pitchers. So it pains me to see him cough up 10 earned runs like this. It does tell you something about the patience level of the Dodgers' hitters that they could get to the crafty lefty like that.

Tuesday, July 17: Bartolo Colon (6-4)(LAA) vs. James Shields (7-5)(TB)

Angels 3, Devil Rays 8

(Win Probability graphing by Fangraphs)
Angels player of the game: (C) Jose Molina - WPA +.104
2/4, 0R, 0HR, 2RBI, 0BB, 0SO
Angels lowest contributor: (SP) Ervin Santana - WPA -.410
6.0IP, 14H, 7R, 7ER, 4BB, 4SO, 0HR

Devil Rays player of the game: (1B) Carlos Pena - WPA +.176
2/4, 1R, 0HR, 2RBI, 1BB, 2SO
Devil Rays lowest contributor: (3B) Akinori Iwamura - WPA -.135
0/5, 0R, 0HR, 0RBI, 0BB, 2SO

Ervin Santana: 6.0IP, 14H, 7R, 7ER, 4BB, 4SO, 0HR - L

James Shields:7.0IP, 7H, 2R, 2ER, 1BB, 2SO, 0HR - W

Ervin Santana got the call as Bartolo Colon was bumped by a day to face Scott Kazmir tomorrow. But today Ervin was simply terrible as he allowed 14! hits in 6 innings of work and the 7 earned runs were more than enough to saddle him with the loss. With an ERA north of 6 for the season it's hard to believe anyone was considering trading good bats for him last year at this time. James Shields, on the other hand, is the breakout performer of this year.

3-picks: Break's Over - Play Ball

2007-07-11T20:38:00.000-07:00

Thursday, July 12: Andy Pettitte (4-6)(NYY) vs. James Shields (7-4)(TB)

The riveting stories of the decline of Andy Pettitte and the ascension of James Shields dovetail in this match up as the pitcher of the Yankees once great past faces off against the Devil Rays future ace. Well, Shields is pitching like the staff ace already this year. Tampa Bay's strategy of stacking the farm teams with hot prospects will eventually even out the playing field against the deep pockets of New York. And we might get a taste of that in this game.

Yankees 7, Devil Rays 3

(Win Probability graphing by Fangraphs)
Yankees player of the game: (RF) Bobby Abreu - WPA +.220
3/4, 1R, 1HR, 3RBI, 0BB, 0SO
Yankees lowest contributor: (2B) Robinson Cano - WPA -.070
0/4, 0R, 0HR, 0RBI, 0BB, 1SO

Devil Rays player of the game: (CF) Delmon Young - WPA +.088
2/4, 0R, 0HR, 0RBI, 0BB, 0SO
Devil Rays lowest contributor: (SP) James Shields - WPA -.332
6.0IP, 9H, 6R, 5ER, 1BB, 2SO, 3HR

Andy Pettitte: 5.2IP, 6H, 3R, 3ER, 1BB, 3SO, 0HR - W
Luis Vizcaino: 1.1IP, 0H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 2SO - H

James Shields: 6.0IP, 9H, 6R, 5ER, 1BB, 2SO, 3HR - L

This was not James Shields' night. He does have that awful Devil Rays defense working behind him and that awful Devil Rays offense not putting up the run support for him. And he pitches in one of the ugliest modern ballparks ever constructed. But when you give up 3 home runs in the fourth inning the way he did you have to tip your hat to the Yankee's offense and look at bad pitch selection as a culprit.

Friday, July 13: Jeff Francis (8-5)(COL) vs. Ben Sheets (10-4)(MIL)

Jeff Francis and his tantalizing slow pitches square off against the first-place Brewers. Either the Brew Crew is actually good this year or the NL Central is so bad that even Milwaukee can rise to the top. I'm leaning toward the former as all their plum draft picks are starting to pay dividends with Prince Fielder flashing his power swing and Ryan Braun making the case for Rookie of the Year honors.

Rockies 10, Brewers 6

(Win Probability graphing by Fangraphs)
Rockies player of the game: (SS) Troy Tulowitzki - WPA +.276
2/4 2R, 1HR, 2RBI, 1BB, 1SO
Rockies lowest contributor: (2B) Jamey Carroll - WPA -.049
1/4, 1R, 0HR, 0RBI, 0BB, 0SO

Brewers player of the game: (3B) Ryan Braun - WPA +.361
2/4, 2R, 2HR, 4RBI, 1BB, 1SO
Brewers lowest contributor: (SP) Chris Capuano - WPA -.458
3.0IP, 6H, 5R, 5ER, 3BB, 3SO, 0HR

Jeff Francis: 5.0IP, 7H, 6R, 6ER, 2BB, 7SO, 3HR - W

Chris Capuano: 3.0IP, 6H, 5R, 5ER, 3BB, 3SO, 0HR - ND
Carlos Villanueva: 3.0IP, 3H, 5R, 5ER, 3SO, 3HR - L

The Brewers shuffled their starting rotation for the second half and slotted Chris Capuano to go up against Jeff Francis instead of Ben Sheets. Francis was extremely lucky to pick up a win despite allowing 6 earned runs and 3 home runs - all while pitching the minimum 5 innings to pick up that decision. Capuano, on the other hand, didn't last long enough to pick up a win and was fortunate not to be tagged with the loss.

Saturday, July 14: Dustin McGowan (5-4)(TOR) vs. Daisuke Matsuzaka (10-6)(BOS)

Injuries have been particularly cruel to Toronto's starting rotation. But it has cleared the way for Dustin McGowan to makes some impressive starts. This time out he gets to contend with the Green Monster and the Dice-K mania.

Blue Jays 4, Red Sox 9

(Win Probability graphing by Fangraphs)
Blue Jays player of the game: (2B) Aaron Hill - WPA +.273

3/4, 1R, 1HR, 2RBI, 0BB, 1SO
Blue Jays lowest contributor: (RP) Jason Frasor - WPA -.444
1.0IP, 1H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 0SO, 0HR

Red Sox player of the game: (C) Jason Varitek - WPA +.193
1/4, 1R, 1HR, 2RBI, 0BB, 2SO
Red Sox lowest contributor: (SP) Daisuke Matsuzaka - WPA -.100
6.0IP, 9H, 4R, 4ER, 2BB, 2SO, 2HR

Dustin McGowan: 5.0IP, 8H, 6R, 6ER, 2BB, 4SO, 3HR - L

Daisuke Matsuzaka: 6.0IP, 9H, 4R, 4ER, 2BB, 2SO, 2HR - W

Here's a perfect example where the new WPA stat collides head-on with more traditional baseball stats as Dice-K earns a win even as his effort toward the victory shows a net loss as Win Points Added. Equally interesting, for the losing Toronto Blue Jays, the bulk of the Win Points lost is placed on Jason Frasor even though he didn't allow any runs to score. This raises some questions about the way pitching WPA is calculated.

Pythagorean Win % Projections - AL Central

2007-07-10T19:35:00.000-07:00

Let's have a look at the Pythagorean Win% Projections for the toughest division in the major leagues: the AL Central. Like last year, I think winning just 90 games won't be good enough for even a wild card. And it seems likely that the wild card will come from this division.

Here's the current standings and projected final record based on current rate of wins:

	AL Central - Projections as of July 11, 2007
	projected final record based on win%
1	Detroit Tigers	.605	98 - 64
2	Cleveland Indians	.591	96 - 66
3	Minnesota Twins	.511	83 - 79
4	Chicago White Sox	.453	73 - 89
5	Kansas City Royals	.432	70 - 92

And the Pythagorean projection:

	AL Central - Projections as of July 11, 2007
	projected final record based on Pythagorean Win%
1	Detroit Tigers	.603	98 - 64
2	Cleveland Indians	.559	91 - 71
3	Minnesota Twins	.540	87 - 75
4	Kansas City Royals	.462	75 - 87
5	Chicago White Sox	.422	68 - 94

There's no change at the top of the division in this model. The Tigers - and their amazing offense - has them projected to continue at their current pace. The only surprise is at the bottom where this formula predicts the White Sox sinking below even the lowly Royals. That would definitely be the end of Ozzie Guillen if that happens.

3 picks: Bet on the AL in the All Star Game

2007-07-06T17:17:00.000-07:00

Saturday, July 7: Felix Hernandez (4-4)(SEA) vs. Rich Harden (1-1)(OAK)

King Felix was on his way to pitching like a baseball deity at the start of this season. Then he went on the DL and hasn't regained whatever mojo he picked up in spring training. The Mariners have had better luck with Oakland this year - but honestly, they were so bad against the A's last year there was nowhere to go but up - and even have the green and gold in the rear view mirror as they've pushed Oakland down to third place thus far. Rich Harden - like Hernandez - is another starting pitcher I expected to do better than he has. Both these guys throw hard.

Mariners 4, Athletics 0(Win Probability graphing by Fangraphs)
Mariners player of the game: (SP) Felix Hernandez - WPA +.328
8.0IP, 2H, 0R, 0ER, 2BB, 2SO, 0HR
Mariners lowest contributor: (DH) Jose Vidro - WPA -.068
1/5, 1R, 0HR, 0RBI, 0BB, 0SO

Athletics player of the game: (RP) Lenny DiNardo - WPA +.103
6.1IP, 3H, 0R, 0ER, 2BB, 5SO, 0HR
Athletics lowest contibutor: (SP) Rich Harden - WPA -.255
2.2IP, 5H, 4R, 4ER, 3BB, 1SO, 1HR

Felix Hernandez: 8.0IP, 2H, 0R, 0ER, 2BB, 2SO, 0HR - W

Rich Harden: 2.2IP, 5H, 4R, 4ER, 3BB, 1SO, 1HR - L

A shutout from the King! Nice work. Only 2 strikeouts from Felix - but he gets 8 innings of work. It looks like the young King has learned to work more efficiently. Lenny DiNardo records the only positive WPA value on the entire Athletics team as he pitches long relief for the no decision.

Apparently the fine folks at USS Mariner are responsible for King Felix's success tonight. Check this out! Blogs can make this a better game. This old Mariners fan thanks USS Mariner for giving the King some pointers.

Sunday, July 8: Daisuke Matsuzaka (10-5)(BOS) vs. Nate Robertson (4-6)(DET)

Dice-K gets one more start in before the break. 10-5 is pretty good for a "rookie."

Red Sox 5, Tigers 6

(Win Probability Graphing by Fangraphs)
Red Sox player of the game: (SS) Julio Lugo - WPA +.275
3/3, 2R, 1HR, 2RBI, 1BB, 0SO
Red Sox lowest contributor: (SP) Daisuke Matsuzaka - WPA -.401
5.0IP, 10H, 6R, 6ER, 1BB, 4SO, 3HR - L

Tigers player of the game: (DH) Gary Sheffield - WPA +.196
3/4, 2R, 1HR, 2RBI, 0BB, 0SO
Tigers lowest contributor: (SP) Nate Robertson - WPA -.083
6.1IP, 4H, 4R, 4ER, 4BB, 2SO, 2HR - W

Daisuke Matsuzaka: 5.0IP, 10H, 6R, 6ER, 1BB, 4SO, 3HR - L

Nate Robertson: 6.1IP, 4H, 4R, 4ER, 4BB, 2SO, 2HR - W
Jose Capellan: 1.1IP, 1H, 1R, 0ER, 1BB, 2SO, 0HR - H
Zach Miner: 0.1IP, 0H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 1SO, 0HR - H
Todd Jones: 1.0IP, 2H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 1SO, 0HR - SV

The last games before the break typically yield strange outcomes. Dice-K allowing 3 home runs is a strange outcome. Dice-K allowing 6 earned runs is odd. Nate Robertson walking twice as many batters as he strikes out, allowing 2 home runs and coming away with a win is weird. This is why I'm tempted to bench my entire fantasy team in the days leading up to the all-star game.

Tuesday, July 10: All-Star Game. American League vs. National League @ San Francisco

Let's go American League! The All-Star Game is a fine tradition and I even don't mind "making it count" with the World Series home field advantage tied to the outcome. But I could live without the home run derby. The presentation is always terrible. The last thing I want to do is hear 50 consecutive home run calls from the broadcasters. Even just three rounds of "back... back... back... back..." is enough to make me nauseous. And the competition structure is so contrived and just not baseball. Unless somebody can come up with an equivalent event to showcase pitching we should seriously consider retiring this empty display of undisciplined swinging. Skip the spectacle and just play the game!

American League 5, National League 4

(Win Probability graphing by Fangraphs)
American League player of the game: Ichiro Suzuki (SEA) - WPA +.293
3/3, 1R, 1HR, 2RBI, 0BB, 0SO
American League lowest contributor: Vladimir Guerrero (LAA) - WPA -.097
0/3, 0R, 0HR, 0RBI, 0BB, 0SO

National League player of the game: Jose Reyes (NYM) - WPA +.108
3/4, 1R, 0HR, 0RBI, 0BB, 0SO
National League lowest contributor: Aaron Rowand (PHI) - WPA -.317
0/2, 0R, 0HR, 0RBI, 0BB, 1SO

Dan Haren: 2.0IP, 2H, 1R, 1ER, 1BB, 2SO, 0HR - ND
Josh Beckett: 2.0IP, 1H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 2SO, 0HR - W
CC Sabathia: 1.0IP, 1H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 0SO, 0HR - H
Justin Verlander: 1.0IP, 2H, 1R, 1ER, 0BB, 0SO, 0HR - H
Johan Santana: 1.0IP, 0H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 2SO, 0HR - H
Jonathan Papelbon: 1.0IP, 1H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 2SO, 0HR - H
JJ Putz: 0.2IP, 2H, 2R, 2ER, 1BB, 1SO, 1HR - H
Francisco Rodriguez: 0.1IP, 0H, 0R, 0ER, 2BB, 0SO, 0HR - SV

Jake Peavy: 1.0IP, 1H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 0SO, 0HR - ND
Brad Penny: 1.0IP, 0H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 0SO, 0HR - H
Ben Sheets: 1.0IP, 2H 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 0SO, 0HR - H
Cole Hamels: 1.0IP, 2H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 0SO, 0HR - H
Chris Young: 1.0IP, 1H, 2R, 2ER, 1BB, 0SO, 1HR - L

The American League takes another All-Star exhibition. It must be nice to Johan Santana on hand to pitch an inning for a hold. He's an All-Star's All-Star. And on a day when Ichiro was all over the news wire with contract rumors he comes through with an inside-the-park 2-run home run to earn the MVP distinction. I couldn't agree more.

Pythagorean Win % Projections - NL West

2007-07-04T05:31:00.000-07:00

Here are the current win projections for the NL West with data through July 3:

	NL West - Projections as of July 3, 2007
	projected final record based on win%
1	San Diego Padres	.573	93 - 69
2	Los Angeles Dodgers	.571	93 - 69
3	Arizona Diamondbacks	.553	90 - 72
4	Colorado Rockies	.488	79 - 83
5	San Francisco Giants	.432	70 - 92

And the Pythagorean Win % projections:

	NL West - Projections as of July 3, 2007
	projected final record based on Pythagorean Win%
1	San Diego Padres	.610	99 - 63
2	Los Angeles Dodgers	.550	89 - 73
3	San Francisco Giants	.509	82 - 82
4	Colorado Rockies	.477	77 - 85
5	Arizona Diamondbacks	.476	77 - 85

The only real surprise is just how far above the Pythagorean Win formula the Arizona Diamondbacks are performing - suggesting that they are due for a major correction in the second half of the season. The flip side of that is that the San Francisco Giants are currently well under their projections and will probably improve down the stretch.

3 Picks: Three more from the Junior Circuit

2007-07-03T17:50:00.000-07:00

Wednesday, July 4: Johan Santana (9-6)(MIN) vs. Mike Mussina (4-5)(NYY)

Yankee Stadium has been unkind to the Minnesota Twins in recent years. They pull out the ace as they look to put a blanket on the Bombers offense in this one.

Twins 6, Yankees 2

(Win Probability graphing by Fangraphs)
Twins player of the game: (SP) Johan Santana - WPA +.190
7.0IP, 4H, 2R, 2ER, 2BB, 5SO, 1HR
Twins lowest contributor: (C) Mike Redmond - WPA -.096
0/4, 0R, 0HR, 0RBI, 0BB, 0SO

Yankees player of the game: (LF) Hideki Matsui - WPA +.097
1/3, 1R, 1HR, 1RBI, 1BB, 1SO
Yankees lowest contributor: (SP) Mike Mussina - WPA -.207
6.0IP, 5H, 4R, 3ER, 0BB, 5SO, 1HR

Johan Santana: 7.0IP, 4H, 2R, 2ER, 2BB, 5SO, 1HR - W
Pat Neshek: 1.0IP, 0H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 2SO, 0HR - H

Mike Mussina: 6.0IP, 5H, 4R, 3ER, 0BB, 5SO, 1HR - L

When Mike Mussina was chased from the top of the seventh inning by a two-run blast by Jason Kubel I had a flash of the Yankee-hater come over me. I admire the talent on that team, but the habit of rooting against the pinstripes is so deeply ingrained that I can only feel pleasure when someone gets the big hit against them like that. Pat Neshek's campaign to have Yankee fans vote for him to go to the All-Star game probably stalled out when he struck out two Yanks for the hold. I voted for Pat. He's pitching at an All-Star caliber. And he blogs. Vote for Pat.

Thursday, July 5: CC Sabathia (12-2)(CLE) vs. Justin Verlander (9-3)(DET)

Do not adjust your monitor. Captain Cheeseburger is indeed 12-2 so far this year. That might have something to do with Cleveland's insurgence in the AL Central this year. And with the Tigers throwing their Rookie of the Year and one-time no-hit pitcher at them they're looking to make up some ground against these Indians.

Indians 3, Tigers 12

(Win Probability graphing by Fangraphs)
Indians player of the game: (C) Victor Martinez - WPA +.120
2/3, 1R, 1HR, 2RBI, 0BB, 0SO
Indians lowest contributor of the game: (SP) CC Sabathia - WPA -.442
4.0IP, 10H, 7R, 7ER, 1BB, 3SO, 3HR

Tigers player of the game: (2B) Placido Polanco - WPA +.213
3/5, 3R, 1HR, 1RBI, 0BB, 0SO
Tigers lowest contributor of the game: (LF) Craig Monroe - WPA -.050
1/5, 0R, 0HR, 1RBI, 0BB, 1SO

CC Sabathia: 4.0IP, 10H, 7R, 7ER, 1BB, 3SO, 3HR - L

Justin Verlander: 7.0IP, 6H, 3R, 2ER, 0BB, 7SO, 1HR - W

12 wins or not, when you get rocked for 7 earned runs, 3 homers and 10 hits in just four innings of work you can charitably be said to be "not fooling anyone today." An uncharacteristically bad start for Class Clown Sabathia - and it came against exactly the division rival the Tribe needs to beat to open up some distance in the division race.

Friday, July 6: Jeremy Guthrie (4-2)(BAL) vs. Kameron Loe (5-6)(TEX)

We'll see if young Jeremy Guthrie's 2.63 ERA survives the cozy hitting confines of the Ballpark at Arlington.

Orioles 3, Rangers 4 (10)

(Win Probability graphing by Fangraphs)
Orioles player of the game: (2B) Brian Roberts - WPA +.404
1/3, 1R, 0HR, 1RBI, 2BB, 0SO
Orioles lowest contributor: (RP) Paul Shuey - WPA -.357
0.1IP, 2H, 1R, 1ER, 1BB, 0SO, 0HR

Rangers player of the game: (SP) Kameron Loe
6.0IP, 5H, 0R, 0ER, 3BB, 3SO, 0HR
Rangers lowest contributor: (RP) Eric Gagne - WPA -.189
1.0IP, 3H, 1R, 1ER, 0BB, 1SO, 0HR

Jeremy Guthrie: 6.0IP, 5H, 3R, 3ER, 3BB, 3SO, 1HR - ND
Paul Shuey: 0.1IP, 2H, 1R, 1ER, 1BB, 0SO, 0HR - L

Kameron Loe: 6.0IP, 5H, 0R, 0ER, 3BB, 3SO, 0HR - ND
CJ Wilson: 0.2IP, 1H, 2R, 2ER, 2BB, 0SO, 0HR - H
Frank Francisco: 1.1IP, 0H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 1SO, 0HR - H
Eric Gagne: 1.0IP, 3H, 1R, 1ER, 0BB, 1SO, 0HR - BS
Joaquin Benoit: 1.0IP, 0H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 0SO, 0HR - W

Only 1 home run in all 10 innings at that tiny ballpark. Interesting. And it comes down to a battle of bad bullpens in extra frames with a blown save and a win going to the same team. Interesting.

Pythagorean Win % Projections - NL East

2007-07-02T17:24:00.000-07:00

Here's the Pythagorean Win % Projections for the NL East division. I've been pulling for the Phillies this year - but they've been allowing more runs than they've scored. Which means they're lucky to be over .500. But they can't expect to stay at that mark unless they tighten up for the rest of the year.

	NL East - Projections as of July 1, 2007
	projected final record based on win%
1	New York Mets	.575	93 - 69
2	Atlanta Braves	.524	85 - 77
3	Philadelphia Phillies	.512	83 - 79
4	Flordia Marlins	.463	75 - 87
5	Washington Nationals	.407	66 - 96

	NL East - Projections as of July 1, 2007
	projected final record based on Pythagorean Win%
1	New York Mets	.564	91 - 71
2	Atlanta Braves	.502	81 - 81
3	Philadelphia Phillies	.490	79 - 83
4	Florida Marlins	.464	75 - 87
5	Washington Nationals	.364	59 - 103

The interesting thing about these projection is that it shows no change in the current standings and only a correction downward for all teams except for Florida.

Angels 4, Orioles 3

2007-07-01T19:17:00.000-07:00

Some observations from section 29, row G, seat 5 at today's rubber-match between the Angels and Orioles:

A well pitched game on both sides. I enjoyed that.

Jeremy Guthrie throws some serious heat. With a fastball in the mid to high 90s he was perfect his first time through the Angels batting order. He has the potential to be a front-end of the rotation kind of starter as he had 6-innings of 1-2-3 efficiency.

John Lackey also packs some mean heat. And a good slider. And as a veteran he managed to get the win even though Guthrie clearly out pitched him today. The Orioles' pitching staff didn't allow any walks, whereas Lackey issued 3 free passes. But his only real mistake pitch was the one Jay Payton barely muscled over the left field wall for a 2-run home run in the second inning.

When the Angels' offense wasn't being retired in order they were making their hits count. 4 hits, 4 runs scored and no runners stranded. That made all the difference in the world with a 1-run margin.

The game-ending double-play was swift and exciting with the potential tying run cut down at the plate by Vladimir Guerrero. It looked like catcher Mike Napoli may have been injured on the play as he had to be helped off the field.

Angels player of the game: (RP) Francisco Rodriguez - WPA +.383
1.1IP, 2H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 0SO, 0HR

Angels lowest contributor of the game: Gary Matthews Jr. - WPA -.104
0/4, 0R, 0HR, 0RBI, oBB, 1SO

Orioles player of the game: Jay Payton - WPA +.296
2/4, 1R, 1HR, 2RBI, 0BB, 1SO

Orioles lowest contributor of the game: (2B) Brian Roberts - WPA -.358
1/2, 1R, 0HR, 0RBI, 0BB, 0SO

John Lackey: 7.1IP, 4H, 3R, 3ER, 5SO, 1HR - W
Scot Shields: 0.1IP, 1H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 0SO, 0HR - H
Francisco Rodriguez: 1.1IP, 2H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 0SO, 0HR - SV

Jeremy Guthrie: 8.0IP, 4H, 4R, 4ER, 0BB, 7SO, 2HR - L
Chad Bradford: 0.2IP, 0H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 0SO, 0HR
Jamie Walker: 0.1IP, 0H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 1SO, 0HR

3 Picks: The Rocket Limps Into July Seeking That Elusive Second Win

2007-06-30T08:05:00.000-07:00

Sunday, July 1: James Shields (6-3)(TB) vs. Cliff Lee (4-4)(CLE)

Shields has been a real shot in the arm for my fantasy rotation. And the best part is that he wasn't on any one's radar before this season started. It's a little like the season Cliff Lee had a couple years back now. Cleveland will throw a good offense at Shields as he tries to work the pitching-friendly confines of Jacobs Field.

Devil Rays 2, Indians 3(Win Probability graphing by Fangraphs)
Devil Rays player of the Game: (DH) Ty Wigginton - WPA +.122
1/3, 0R, 0HR, 0RBI, 1BB, 0SO
Devil Rays lowest contributor: (CF) Delmon Young - WPA -.227
0/3, 0R, 0HR, 1RBI, 0BB, 2SO

Indians player of the Game: (SP) Cliff Lee - WPA +.425
8.0IP, 4H, 1R, 1ER, 2BB, 9SO, 1HR
Indians lowest contributor: (2B) Josh Barfield - WPA -.134
0/3, 0R, 0HR, 0RBI, 0BB, 1SO

James Shields: 6.1IP, 6H, 3R, 2ER, 0BB, 10SO, 1HR - L

Cliff Lee: 8.0IP, 4H, 1R, 1ER, 2BB, 9SO, 1HR - W

Ten strikeouts wasn't going to get the job done with the shoddy Devil Rays defense (allowing one unearned run - the difference in this ballgame) combined with Cliff Lee's 4-hit/1-run effort. But in fantasy-land, 10 K's is golden. Keep 'em coming James.

Monday, July 2: Boof Bonser (5-4)(MIN) vs. Roger Clemens (1-3)(NYY)

Clemens is about to set a record for the most money spent per win as he adds his expensive arm to the sputtering Yankees rotation. And today he faces indignities handed out by a fine pitcher named Boof.

Twins 1, Yankees 5

(Win Probability Graphing by Fangraphs)
Twins player of the game: (C) Joe Mauer - WPA +.064
2/4, 0R, 0HR, 0RBI, 0BB, 0SO
Twins lowest contributer of the game: (CF) Torii Hunter - WPA -.104
0/3, 0R, 0HR, 0RBI, 0BB, 1SO

Yankees player of the game: (SP) Roger Clemens - WPA +.317
8.0IP, 2H, 1R, 1ER, 1BB, 4SO, 0H
Yankees lowest contributer of the game: (LF) Hideki Matsui - WPA -.133
0/4, 0R, 0HR, 0RBI, 0BB, 0SO

Boof Bonser: 5.1IP, 9H, 4R, 4ER, 3BB, 6SO, 1HR - L

Roger Clemens: 8.0IP, 2H, 1R, 1ER, 1BB, 4SO, 0HR - W

Clemens looked much better in this start than he did in Baltimore. Perhaps the cooler weather helped the old man out. Whatever it was, he put up some vintage Rocket numbers and the Twins - normally a better hitting team - couldn't figure him out.

Tuesday, July 3: Scott Kazmir (5-4)(TB) vs. Daisuke Matsuzaka (9-5)(BOS)

I've been going into Dice-K withdrawals and I don't know if I can wait until Tuesday for this one. Big Papi will be looking to rock the Kazmir in this one.

Devil Rays 1, Red Sox 4

(Win Probability graphing by Fangraphs)
Devil Rays player of the game: (RP) Jason Hammel - WPA +.007
1.0IP, 1H, 0R, 0ER, 2BB, 2SO, 0HR
Devil Rays lowest contributor: (SP) Scott Kazmir - WPA -.146
6.0IP, 6H, 4R, 3ER, 3BB, 6SO, 0HR
Red Sox player of the Game: (SP) Daisuke Matsuzaka - WPA +.349
8.0IP, 4H, 0R, 0ER, 1BB, 9SO, 0HR
Red Sox lowest contributor: (RF) Wily Mo Pena - WPA -.090
0/4, 0R, 0HR, 0RBI, 0BB, 4SO

Scott Kazmir: 6.0IP, 6H, 4R, 3ER, 3BB, 6SO, 0HR - L

Daisuke Matsuzaka: 8.0IP, 4H, 0R, 0ER, 1BB, 9SO, 0HR - W

Dice-K shuts out the lowly Devil Rays through 8 innings. The shutout would have been complete if Jonathan Papelbon hadn't allowed Carlos Pena to hit the only home run of the game. But it still goes down as a W. And on a day when the Yankees win, it keeps that distance over their rival.

Pythagorean Win % Projections - NL Central

2007-06-28T20:14:00.000-07:00

I like to run Pythagorean Win % Projections in mid season because it's a good indicator of which teams have been lucky so far and which teams are due for a correction unless they find a way to dramatically improve their ratio of runs scored to runs allowed. And I'm starting with the NL Central Division because it's a quirky one this year. The Milwaukee Brewers - a team that hasn't had a season over .500 since 1992 (back when they were in the AL East) - are currently at the top of the division as the only team out of 6 with a winning record so far. All their plum draft picks over the lean years seem to be paying dividends this season. At this point, I think the odds favor them to take the division title.

	NL Central - Projections as of June 28, 2007
	projected final record based on win%
1	Milwaukee Brewers	.590	96 - 66
2	Chicago Cubs	.494	80 - 82
3	St. Louis Cardinals	.453	73 - 89
4	Pittsburgh Pirates	.423	69 - 93
5	Houston Astros	.410	66 - 96
6	Cincinnati Reds	.380	62 - 100

And here is the Pythagorean Win % projection:

	NL Central - Projections as of June 28, 2007
	projected final record based on Pythagorean Win%
1	Milwaukee Brewers	.553	90 - 72
2	Chicago Cubs	.541	88 - 74
3	Cincinnati Reds	.446	72 - 90
4	Houston Astros	.437	71 - 91
5	Pittsburgh Pirates	.412	67 - 95
6	St. Louis Cardinals	.403	65 - 97

This projection shows no change in the top two spots - though it does suggest a tighter race forming between the Brewers and Cubs with Chicago due for an improved record down the stretch as Milwaukee fades somewhat. The 3 - 6 slots are flipped from their current standings with the Pythagorean Win Percentage showing the defending World Champion Cardinals headed for last place. It should be interesting to see if the Cubs can pull over .500 by the end of the season. Though I don't think an 88 - 74 record would be good enough to make them a factor in the Wild Card race. It looks like the Brew-Crew is for real this year and poised to be a factor in the playoffs.

3 Picks: AL Cy Young vs. the No-Hit Wonder & Two in Houston

2007-06-27T18:03:00.000-07:00

Thursday, June 28: Aaron Cook (4-5)(COL) vs. Roy Oswalt (7-5)(HOU)

It's the battle of NL righties as Oswalt tries to lead the Houston toward .500. And Cook looks to keep the balls in the yard.

Rockies 5, Astros 8

(Win Probability graphing by Fangraphs)

Rockies Player of the Game: (SS) Troy Tulowitzki - WPA +.324
3/5, 2R, 1HR, 1RBI, 0BB, 1SO
Rockies lowest contributor of the game: (RP) Brian Fuentes - WPA -.791
0.2IP, 3H, 4R, 4ER, 0BB, 1SO, 1HR

Astros Player of the Game: (OF) Carlos Lee - WPA +.637 (walk-off grand slam home run)
2/6, 1R, 1HR, 4RBI, 0BB, 0SO
Astros lowest contributor of the game: (RP) Chad Qualls - WPA -.385
0.0IP, 3H, 2R, 2ER, 0BB, 0SO, 1HR

Aaron Cook: 7.0IP, 7H, 1R, 1ER, 1BB, 2SO, 0HR - ND
LaTroy Hawkins: 0.2IP, 4H, 3R, 3ER, 0BB, 0SO, 2HR - BS
Brian Fuentes: 0.2IP, 3H, 4R, 4ER, 0BB, 1SO, 1HR - BS, L

Roy Oswalt: 7.0IP, 9H, 1R, 1ER, 2BB, 4SO, 1HR - ND
Brian Moehler: 1.0IP, 1H, 1R, 1ER, 0BB, 1SO, 1HR - W

With each starting pitcher just giving up one run in 7 innings of work it's a shame that they both come away with a no decision. But a walk-off grand slam with 2 out in the bottom of the seventh is a treat for the fans.

Friday, June 29: Johan Santana (8-6)(MIN) vs. Justin Verlander (9-2)(DET)

This is one of those match-ups that just leaps out with so much potential as the two best of the AL Central - possibly the best in the AL - square off in this one.

Twins 11, Tigers 1

(Win Probability graphing by Fangraphs)

Minnesota Twins player of the Game: (SP) Johan Santana - WPA +.245
6.0IP, 5H, 1R, 1ER, 1BB, 6SO, 1HR

Twins lowest contributor: (OF) Torii Hunter - WPA -.049
2/5, 1R, 2H, 0HR, 1RBI, 0BB, 1SO

Detroit Tigers player of the Game: (2B) Placido Polanco - WPA +.040
3/4, 1R, 1HR, 1RBI, 0BB, 0SO

Detroit Tigers lowest contributor: (SP) Justin Verlander - WPA -.228
5.0IP, 4H, 6R, 6ER, 5BB, 5SO, 1HR

Johan Santana: 6.0IP, 5H, 1R, 1ER, 1BB, 6SO, 1HR - W

Justin Verlander: 5.0IP, 4H, 6R, 6ER, 5BB, 5SO, 1HR - L

The one-time no-hit wonder gave up 4 hits in this one and 6 of the 11 runs that the Twins put on the board in this blowout. Johan is amazing. And there's a lot of understatement in that.

Saturday, June 30: Jeff Francis (7-5)(COL) vs. Jason Jennings (1-2)(HOU)

It's the Rockies pitcher versus the former Rockies pitcher as Jennings puts his nasty sinker to work in Houston. I really expected Jennings to be much more successful than 1-2 with the Astros.

Rockies 5, Astros 0(Win Probability graphing by Fangraphs)

Rockies Player of the Game: (SP) Jeff Francis - WPA +.391
7.0IP, 3H, 0R, 0ER, 4BB, 4SO, 0HR

Rockies lowest contributer of the game: (C) Chris Iannetta - WPA -.065
0/4, 0R, 0HR, 0RBI, 0BB, 2SO

Astros Player of the Game: (2B) Craig Biggio - WPA +.040
2/4, 0R, 0HR, 0RBI, 0BB, 1SO

Astros lowest contributer of the game: (OF) Hunter Pence - WPA -.112
0/4, 0R, 0HR, 0RBI, 0BB, 1SO

Jeff Francis: 7.0IP, 3H, 0R, 0ER, 4BB, 4SO, 0HR - W

Jason Jennings: 7.0IP, 5H, 3R, 3ER, 2BB, 6SO, 0HR - L

Despite the quality start for Jennings, he gets charged with the loss. He goes to 1-3 on the year thanks to the lackluster Astros offense (those three words just go together somehow) and Francis' ability to shut out the impatient bats of Houston.

3 Picks: Interleague Intrigue

2007-06-17T10:55:00.001-07:00

Monday, June 18: Curt Schilling (6-3)(BOS) vs. Chuck James (5-6)(ATL)

Purists may have issues with interleague play - or even the pairing of Boston and Atlanta as "natural" interleague rivals. But match ups like this one make me a big fan of the format. And anyone who knows the history of the Boston Braves can see a natural fit toward this particular rivalry.(Win Probability graphing by Fangraphs)
Curt Schilling: 4.1IP, 10H, 6R, 6ER, 2BB, 0SO, 1HR - L

Chuck James: 5.1IP, 5H, 2R, 2ER, 4BB, 4SO, 2HR - W

All told, 11 different pitchers took to the mound in this game and only the starters came away with the decision - no holds or saves for the relievers in this one. This was a rough outing for Schilling.

Tuesday, June 19: Johan Santana (6-6)(MIN) vs. Jorge Sosa (6-2)(NYM)

Johan is only 6-6 so far this season? An uncharacteristic lack of run support is holding el Presidente (and defending AL Cy Young Award winner) from a 12-0 record. Equally shocking is Sosa's 6-2. Jorge has a winning record? In the NL East? Really? Santana pitching at Shea? Cool.(Win Probability graphing by Fangraphs)
Johan Santana: 9.0IP, 4H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 1SO, 0HR - W

Jorge Sosa: 3.1IP, 8H, 7R, 5ER, 2BB, 1SO, 0HR - L

Santana continues to pitch like the best pitcher in the American League (which makes him the best pitcher in the majors) with a complete game shutout against the Jorge Sosa I'd expected to see all year.

Wednesday, June 20: Andy Pettitte (4-4)(NYY) vs. Jeff Francis (6-5)(COL)

The suddenly resurgent Yankees play a little humidor ball at the mile high as Jeff Francis matches up against the former rival Astros starter. The real question is: can A-Rod handle a Francis curve-ball?(Win Probability graphing by Fangraphs)
Andy Pettite: 6.2IP, 9H, 6R, 6ER, 2BB, 4SO, 1HR - L
Jeff Francis: 7.0IP, 5H, 1R, 1ER, 1BB, 9SO, 0HR - W

The Francis quality start - and 9 strikeouts - beats the Andy Pettitte not-quality start in this one. And in the process, Jeff Francis endears himself to fans everywhere for his good deed of beating the Yankees.

- 3 picks will go on a brief hiatus... possibly missing a Dice-K start or two in the process -

3 Picks: Birds, Sox and Mile High

2007-06-14T18:06:00.000-07:00

Friday, June 15: Micah Owings (4-1)(ARI) vs. Erik Bedard (4-4)(BAL)

Micah Owings is one of the more interesting rookie starting pitchers this year. The future looks bright for the D-backs with a talent like that in the rotation.(Win Probability graphing by Fangraphs)
Micah Owings: 6.0IP, 6H, 3R, 3ER, 1BB, 0SO, 0HR - ND
Doug Slaten: 1.0IP, 1H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 0SO, 0HR - W
Tony Pena: 1.0IP, 2H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 0SO, 0HR - H

Erik Bedard: 7.0IP, 6H, 2R, 2ER, 0BB, 9SO, 1HR - ND
Jamie Walker: 0.1IP, 0H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 0SO, 0HR - H
Todd Williams: 0.2IP, 2H, 2R, 2ER, 1BB, 0SO, 1HR - BS, L

The Orioles can't catch a break as they waste a quality start from Bedard. 9 strikeouts in 7 innings for a no decision? I don't know what is up with that bullpen, but it isn't working. The O's seem to be losing a lot of games this way. Actually, they've found a lot of ways to lose games lately.

Saturday, June 16: Matt Cain (2-6)(SF) vs. Daisuke Matsuzaka (7-5)(BOS)

Still tracking those gyro-ballin' starts.(Win Probability graphing by Fangraphs)
Matt Cain: 7.0IP, 3H, 1R, 1ER, 1BB, 3SO, 1HR - L

Daisuke Matsuzaka: 7.0IP, 3H, 0R, 0ER, 3BB, 8SO, 0HR - W
Hideki Okajima: 1.0IP, 1H, 0R, 0ER, 1BB, 1SO, 0HR - H
Jonathan Papelbon: 1.0IP, 0H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 0SO, 0HR - SV

Wow! That is my kind of game. Both starters give up 3 hits in 7 innings of work. But it's the one that went out of the yard for a home run off the bat of Manny Ramirez that makes the difference in this 1-0 ballgame. This has to be a fun time to be a BoSox fan.

Sunday, June 17: Scott Kazmir (4-3)(TB) vs. Aaron Cook (4-3)(COL)

It's interesting that both these starters are 4-3 at this point in the season. I wonder if where they would be if they played for teams with a more competitive lineup.(Win Probability graphing by Fangraphs)
Scott Kazmir: 6.0IP, 6H, 3R, 3ER, 4BB, 5SO, 2HR - W
Jay Witasick: 1.0IP, 1H, 0R, 0ER, 2BB, 0SO, 0HR - H
Al Reyes: 1.0IP, 0H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 2SO, 0HR - SV

Aaron Cook: 6.0IP, 10H, 6R, 6ER, 0BB, 0SO, 3HR - L

These two expansion clubs from different leagues may be the future of major league baseball as each works through "rebuilding mode" with actual signs of building (the Orioles should take some notes). Mariano Rivera may have the reputation as the sandman as a closer. But it's call me Al Reyes who's actually getting the saves in the AL East this year.

3 Picks: Time to Throw a Sinker

2007-06-11T18:55:00.000-07:00

Tuesday, June 12: Brandon Webb (6-3)(ARI) vs. Chien-Ming Wang (5-4)(NYY)

There should be lots of defense in this game as two of the best sinker-ball pitchers in either league try to induce ground-ball outs all night long. And the Diamondbacks get to rekindle their rivalry as the team that beat the Yankees in the World Series in 2001.(Win Probability graphing by Fangraphs)
Brandon Webb: 7.0IP, 5H, 4R, 3ER, 2BB, 4SO, 1HR - L

Chien-Ming Wang: 7.0IP, 6H, 1R, 1ER, 0BB, 2SO, 1HR - W
Kyle Farnsworth: 1.0IP, 1H, 0R, 0ER, 1BB, 1SO, 0HR - H
Mariano Rivera: 1.0IP, 0H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 1SO, 0HR - SV

When Webb couldn't get out of the first inning without giving up the home run to Bobby Abreu the sinking feeling that the Yankees weren't going to lose this one began. Even with Chad Tracy answering back with his own blast in the fourth inning - his first game since coming off the DL - the damage was already too much for the D-backs to battle back.

Wednesday, June 13: Jorge Sosa (6-1)(NYM) vs. Brad Penny (7-1)(LAD)

Jorge Sosa wasn't really on my radar at the start of the season. Other than his 13-3 record in 2005 with the Braves, recent history did not suggest a 6-1 record for Jorge at this point in the season. Penny is pitching like the ace of the Dodgers' staff. And that's not surprising given his ability.(Win Probability graphing by Fangraphs)
Jorge Sosa: 5.2IP, 8H, 6R, 6ER, 1BB, 1SO, 1HR - L

Brad Benny: 7.0IP, 7H, 1R, 1ER, 0BB, 7SO, 0HR - W

Jorge regressed to last year's form in this one as he allows 6 runs on 8 hits.

Thursday, June 14: Jeff Francis (5-5)(COL) vs. Josh Beckett (9-0)(BOS)

Francis will test the patience of the Red Sox hitters while Beckett looks to stay perfect. Rockies at Fenway? Interleague play does bring out unusual situations.(Win Probability graphing by Fangraphs)
Jeff Francis: 5.0IP, 7H, 0R, 0ER, 2BB, 6SO, 0HR - W

Josh Beckett: 5.0IP, 10H, 6R, 6ER, 1BB, 1SO, 2HR - L

Well, Beckett had to lose a decision eventually. And giving up a grand slam to Garrett Atkins put the loss squarely on his shoulders. Jeff Francis' particular blend of finesse - and one of the best curve balls in the business - had the Red Sox hitters off balance in a big way. Boston has been looking impatient at the plate in recent games.

Rockies 2, Orioles 4

2007-06-08T23:43:00.000-07:00

June 8, 2007: Jeff Francis (COL) vs. Steve Tracshel (BAL)

Some observations from attending the game at Camden Yards this evening:

Temperature at game time: 96-degrees. It might be summer time.

Jeff Francis is 26, but looks like he's only 17. He has a disciplined warm-up routine and maintains his composure no matter what situation he's pitching in. He has great potential.

The Jeff Francis fastball seems to top out in the mid to high 80s. Which isn't overpowering. What he does do extremely well is mix up his pitches, speeds and location. I saw curve balls coming in at any point in the count. And I saw a lot of weak ground balls on his curve when batters were swinging way in front of the pitch.

Jeff Francis pitches for contact. And when some of those hits get through he can get into a bit of a jam. Also, Nick Markakis is an excellent hitter and he demonstrated what he could do when he's sitting on a fastball. His two-run home run was the difference in the ballgame.

As a left-handed pitcher, if Francis had a slightly better fastball his speed differential could be devastating. He's one to keep an eye on.

The Steve Tracshel fastball barely cracks 90. But he'll use it often. He's effective at getting the first two outs of an inning. Then he starts to nibble at the strike zone. Both of his runs allowed came after two outs.

For a veteran, Tracshel rattles easily. After allowing a run to score on a balk, he was clearly not as sharp and would not be back for the next inning.

I got to see the Orioles manager get ejected from the game. That was fun.

Oriole Ballpark at Camden Yards is a nice ballpark architecturally. It could use some upgrades. After experiencing the crispness of the video screen and wrap-around LCD at Angel Stadium the last couple of years the display at Camden Yards looks like a tiny, blurry throw-back to a bygone era. The sound system is also decidedly lo-fi.

Bad American League teams can out-hit bad National League teams.
(Win Probability graphing by Fangraphs)

3 Picks: Dice-K meets the Big Unit

2007-06-08T21:06:00.000-07:00

Saturday, June 9: James Shields (5-0)(TB) vs. Dontrelle Willis (7-4)(FLA)

I'm deeply intrigued by this match-up. James Shields is one of the great stories of this season and an incredibly lucky pick-up for my fantasy team. Dontrelle Willis is an old favorite of mine.
(Win Probability graphing by Fangraphs)
James Shields: 7.0IP, 6H, 2R, 2ER, 0BB, 9SO, 1HR - W

Dontrelle Willis: 7.0IP, 8H, 4R, 4ER, 4BB, 5SO, 0HR - L

I was watching this one online as this was probably one of the most interesting match-ups of the season. James Shields is having an amazing year and he pitches a 9 strikeout game with no walks for the win while Dontrelle matched him inning for inning - even if he struggled with the base on balls. This was probably the only time Shields will be starting in Miami this year. So where were the fans? It doesn't seem right that this game was so lightly attended. (I had the same feeling last night at the O's game when there were so few on hand to see Jeff Francis.) Perhaps there isn't a proper fan base in Florida...

Sunday, June 10: Daisuke Matsuzaka (7-4)(BOS) vs. Randy Johnson (3-2)(ARI)

This is another great interleague match-up as Dice-K meets the Big Unit for the first, and potentially final, time.(Win Probability graphing by Fangraphs)
Daisuke Matsuzaka: 6.0IP, 4H, 2R, 2ER, 4BB, 9SO, 0HR - L

Randy Johnson: 6.0IP, 4H, 1R, 1ER, 3BB, 9SO, 0HR - W
Jailen Peguero: 1.0IP, 1H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 0SO, 0HR - H
Tony Pena: 1.0IP, 0H, 0R, 0ER, 1BB, 2SO, 0HR - H

Both starters racked up 9 strikeouts in 6 innings of work. But history has recorded the Big Unit as the victor in this particular match-up. Holding down that Red Sox offense is no easy feat and that big 43-year-old lefty from Walnut Creek still has plenty of gas.

Monday, June 11: Cha Seung Baek (3-2)(SEA) vs. Paul Byrd (6-2)(CLE)

With only 5 games on the schedule for this day I'm reverting to my Seattle instincts and taking an interest in this pairing.(Win Probability graphing by Fangraphs)
Cha Seung Baek: 5.1IP, 9H, 5R, 5ER, 1BB, 4SO, 0HR - ND
Sean Green: 0.1IP, 1H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 1SO, 0HR - H
George Sherrill: 1.1IP, 1H, 1R, 1ER, 0BB, 1SO, 0HR - H
Brandon Morrow: 2.0IP, 3H, 1R, 1ER, 4BB, 1SO, 0HR - BS, W

Paul Byrd: 4.0IP, 11H, 7R, 7ER, 0BB, 0SO, 3HR - ND
Joe Borowski: 1.0IP, 3H, 1R, 1ER, 0BB, 0SO, 0HR - L

One of the more quirky aspects of the way baseball scoring works is that someone like Brandon Morrow can get the blown save and yet pick up a win on a terrible performance with 4 walks, 3 hits and an earned run in just two innings pitched. (Congratulations Morrow). Both starters pitched poorly and were lucky to escape with only the no decision. It was a sloppy win for the M's. But they'll take it as they squeeze these make-up game pit-stops in Cleveland over the course of the season to make up for that 4-game snow cancellation from April.

3 Picks: Snakes in the Field

2007-06-05T17:24:00.000-07:00

Wednesday, June 6: Matt Morris (6-2)(SF) vs. Brandon Webb (5-3)(ARI)

After pitching a real gem in New York last week it's time to see what Webb can do at home against a key division rival. The Giants go with Morris against the defending NL Cy Young Award winner.(Win Probability graphing by Fangraphs)
Matt Morris: 8.0IP, 7H, 1R, 1ER, 2BB, 6SO, 1HR - L

Brandon Webb: 7.0IP, 6H, 0R, 0ER, 4BB, 7SO, 0HR - W
Brandon Lyon: 1.0IP, 1H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 2SO, 0HR - H
Jose Valverde: 1.0IP, 0H, 0R, 0ER, 1BB, 2SO, 0HR - SV

Eight complete innings with only one run allowed is a long way to go for a loss. Webb is pitching in real Cy Young form so far this June.

Thursday, June 7: Cole Hamels (8-2)(PHI) vs. John Maine (6-3)(NYM)

Hamels has been the Philly stud this year. And pairing off against Maine makes this one compelling... on paper anyway.(Win Probability graphing by Fangraphs)
Cole Hamels: 7.0Ip, 10H, 3R, 3ER, 1BB, 5SO, 3HR - ND
Mike Zagurski: 1.0IP, 1H, 0R, 0ER, 1BB, 1SO, 0HR - W
Antonio Alfonseca: 1.0IP, 1H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 0SO, 0HR - SV

John Maine: 7.0IP, 6H, 2R, 2ER, 0BB, 2SO, 0HR - ND
Pedro Feliciano: 0.2IP, 0H, 0R, 0ER, 1BB, 0SO, 0HR - H
Billy Wagner: 1.1IP, 1H, 1R, 1ER, 1BB, 3SO, 1HR - BS
Scott Schoenweis: 0.1IP, 2H, 3R, 3ER, 1BB, 0SO, 0HR - L

It took 10 innings, but the Phillies got the sweep at Shea that they needed at this point. We'll see if they have any pitching left going into interleague play against the dreaded (er... dreadful) Royals. Congratulations to Mike Zagurski for recording his career first major league win.

Friday, June 8: Josh Beckett (8-0)(BOS) vs. Doug Davis (4-6)(ARI)

Beckett takes his "undefeated" status and his bat into the National League West where he'll need to take some at bats and keep snakes off the base paths.(Win Probability graphing by Fangraphs)
Josh Beckett: 8.0IP, 5H, 3R, 2ER, 0BB, 8SO, 1HR - W

Doug Davis: 4.0IP, 6H, 5R, 5ER, 5BB, 2SO, 2HR - L

No walks in 8 innings of work and 8 strikeouts. That's outstanding! Beckett goes to 9-0 with a rout of the D-Backs. Newsflash: excellent offensive American League team with great pitching beats anemic hitting National League team.

3 Picks: BoSox & Yanks... it's an East Coast Bias

2007-06-02T09:52:00.000-07:00

Sunday, June 3: Andy Pettitte (3-4)(NYY) vs. Josh Beckett (8-0)(BOS)

Still undefeated and running with a hot Red Sox lineup and rotation Josh Beckett wages more baseball warfare at home against the last place Yankees. It's been a long, long time since "Yankees" and "last place" have been strung together with accuracy. And Andy Pettitte - much like the pending return of the Rocket on Monday - is indicative of the Bronx Bombers' efforts to reclaim their past greatness and falling just short.(Win Probability graphing by Fangraphs)
Andy Pettitte: 4.1IP, 7H, 5R, 5ER, 1BB, 3SO, 0HR - ND
Brian Bruney: 1.0IP, 1H, 0R, 0ER, 1BB, 0SO, 0HR - W
Mariano Rivera: 1.0IP, 0H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 2SO, 0HR - SV

Josh Beckett: 6.1IP, 8H, 4R, 4ER, 3BB, 5SO, 0HR - ND
Brendan Donnelly: 0.1IP, 0H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 0SO, 0HR - H
Hideki Okajima: 1.1IP, 2H, 1R, 1ER, 0BB, 1SO, 0HR - BS
Jonathan Papelbon: 1.0IP, 1H, 1R, 1ER, 0BB, 2SO, 1HR - L

Anybody else notice that Pettitte hasn't been as sharp as he used to be? He wasn't on his game last year with the Astros and returning to the AL East hasn't brought back the old Andy. This was not a good start from him. Beckett looked very good. And gets to remain undefeated via the no decision. The Yankees still have a very good offensive lineup and they can still get inside the Red Sox pitchers' heads. They'll improve over the next few months. So Boston had better work on keeping their lead in the division race.

Monday, June 4: Roger Clemens (0-0)(NYY) vs. Jon Garland (3-3)(CHW)

The Rocket - mercenary starting pitcher for hire in his late years - returns to save the Yankees. It must be nice to sit out the first couple months of the season before collecting $18+ million for the most desparate, deep pocket organization running. The Yanks will probably pull themselves out of their current tail spin. But Clemens' contribution to that move will probably not be overwhelming. Plus, Garland has the goods to match up against the old ace.(Win Probability graphing by Fangraphs)
Matt DeSalvo: 1.1IP, 4H, 3R, 2ER, 1BB, 0SO, 0HR - L

Jon Garland: 8.1IP, 7H, 2R, 1ER, 3BB, 3SO, 0HR - W
Bobby Jenks: 0.2IP, 1H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 0SO, 0HR - SV

No old aces for Garland this time. With the uncomfortable proximity of the words "Rocket" and "fatigued groin," Clemens was "scratched" (oh my) from this start. Rookie starter Matt DeSalvo couldn't pitch his way out of the second inning as the Yankees' starting rotation continues to look like an emergency situation.

Tuesday, June 5: Daisuke Matsuzaka (7-3)(BOS) vs. Lenny DiNardo (1-2)(OAK)

Can't... take... eyes... off... every... Dice-K... start...(Win Probability graphing by Fangraphs)
Daisuke Matsuzaka: 7.0IP, 7H, 2R, 2ER, 2BB, 8SO, 1HR - L

Lenny DiNardo: 6.0IP, 2H, 0R, 0ER, 6BB, 0SO, 0HR - W
Kiko Calero: 1.0IP, 1H, 0R, 0ER, 1BB, 1SO, 0HR - H
Jay Marshall: 0.2IP, 0H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 0SO, 0HR - H
Colby Lewis: 0.1IP, 0H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 0SO, 0HR - H
Alan Embree: 1.0IP, 0H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 1SO, 0HR - SV

A strong outing from Dice-K, but he's defeated by the combined shutout from Oakland's pitching staff. DiNardo was a little wild - with 6 walks and no strike outs - but it's the no runs allowed on 2 hits that earns him a win. Let the talk of June Swoon begin in bean town.

3-picks: Halladay Returns

2007-05-30T17:47:00.000-07:00

Thursday, May 31: Mark Buerhle (2-1)(CHW) vs. Roy Halladay (4-2)(TOR)

Halladay's back! Let's hope he's in good health. I'm a little surprised to see Buerhle is only 2-1 at this point in the season. That's 6 no decisions for the big lefty so far.
(Win Probability graphing by Fangraphs)
Mark Buehrle: 8.0IP, 2H, 2R, 2ER, 0BB, 6SO, 2HR - L

Roy Halladay: 7.0IP, 6H, 0R, 0BB, 7SO, 0HR - W
Casey Janssen: 1.0IP, 0H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 1SO, 0HR - H
Jeremy Accardo: 1.0IP, 0H, 0R, 0ER, 1BB, 0SO, 0HR - SV

This one was well pitched on both sides. Roy Halladay is one of those rare starting pitchers where even a complete game effort against him with only two earned runs allowed can result in a loss.

Friday, June 1: Brandon Webb (4-3)(ARI) vs. John Maine (6-2)(NYM)

Maine's been hot this year. And he gets to pair up against the defending NL Cy Young Award winner at Shea in this one.(Win Probability graphing by Fangraphs)
Brandon Webb: 8.0IP, 4H, 1R, 0ER, 1BB, 8SO, 0HR - W

John Maine: 6.0IP, 5H, 2R, 2ER, 0BB, 7SO, 1HR - L

The D-backs don't win games at Shea very often. But this year they're a winning team and Brandon Webb pitched a real gem in this one.

Saturday, June 2: Noah Lowry (5-4)(SF) vs. Cole Hamels (7-2)(PHI)

It's a battle of youth in this one with Lowry - age 26 - taking on the Philly Phenom Cole Hamels - age 23.(Win Probability graphing by Fangraphs)
Noah Lowry: 7.0IP, 5H, 4R, 4ER, 2BB, 1SO, 0HR - L

Cole Hamels: 9.0IP, 5H, 2R, 2ER, 0BB, 5SO, 1HR - W

A complete game from young Hamels. I'm impressed. If only the Phillies were doing as well as their young starter...

3 Picks: Since When Did Boston Get So Hot?

2007-05-26T22:22:00.000-07:00

Monday, May 28: Jose Contreras (4-4)(CHW) vs. Johan Santana (5-4)(MIN)

Johan's pitching at home in this one. Which has traditionally favored a W for the Twins. This is a good chance for Minnesota to deal a tough loss to their division rival in this one.(Win Probability graphing by Fangraphs)
Jose Contreras: 5.1IP, 10H, 7R, 7ER, 3BB, 4SO, 0HR - L

Johan Santana: 8.0IP, 7H, 4R, 4ER, 1BB, 7SO, 2HR - W

The 7 hits, 4 runs and 2 homers allowed seems un-Santana-like. But the winning at home is something he knows how to do. The Twins flash a little offense late in this one.

Tuesday, May 29: Jeremy Sowers (1-4)(CLE) vs. Josh Beckett (7-0)(BOS)

Beckett is still undefeated? What is up with Boston and how did they get so hot this year? This could be an uphill climb for Sowers.(Win Probability graphing by Fangraphs)
Jeremy Sowers: 5.2IP, 6H, 4R, 4ER, 1BB, 1SO, 2HR - L

Josh Beckett: 7.0IP, 3H, 2R, 2ER, 1BB, 7SO, 0HR - W
Brendan Donnelly: 0.2IP, 1H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 0SO, 0HR - H
Javier Lopez: 0.1IP, 0H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 0SO, 0HR - H
Hideki Okajima: 1.0IP, 0H, 0R, 0ER, 1BB, 2SO, 0HR - SV

That's 8-0 and still undefeated Josh Beckett leading the charge. Making it a good time to be a Boston fan as they continue to extend their lead in the AL East.

Wednesday, May 30: Paul Byrd (5-1)(CLE) vs. Daisuke Matsuzaka (7-2)(BOS)

The Byrd flies into Fenway to square off against the Dice-K mania. He's pitching well this year and might make a duel out of this one yet.(Win Probability graphing by Fangraphs)
Paul Byrd: 6.0IP, 9H, 2R, 1ER, 0BB, 1SO, 0HR - W
Tom Mastny: 0.2IP, 0H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 1SO, 0HR - H
Aaron Fultz: 0.1IP, 0H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 0SO, 0HR - H

Daisuke Matsuzaka: 5.2IP, 12H, 6R, 6ER, 0BB, 4SO, 1HR - L

The Byrd is the word as Paul puts in a quality start while the Dice-man gives up 6 runs on 12 hits. And Grady Sizemore was hitting on all cylinders. The good news on the Boston side is Kevin Youkilis - my fantasy team stud - extends his hit streak to 22 games with his 1-for-5 game.

3 Picks: Gyro Balls in the Heart of Texas

2007-05-24T19:37:00.000-07:00

Friday, May 25: Daisuke Matsuzaka (6-2)(BOS) vs. Brandon McCarthy (4-4)(TEX)

The King Felix versus Gil Meche match up in Kansas City is also interesting today. But I have to stick with the Dice-K story. And the morbid curiosity of him pitching in that hitters paradise they have down in Arlington.(Win Probability graphing by Fangraphs)
Daisuke Matsuzaka: 5.0IP, 7H, 5R, 5ER, 3BB, 6SO, 2HR - W

Brandon McCarthy: 2.0IP, 1H, 4R, 4ER, 4BB, 1SO, 0HR - ND
Wes Littleton: 3.0IP, 5H, 2R, 2ER, 0BB, 1SO, 0HR - L

It's high scoring ball games like this that makes the Ballpark in Arlington unappealing for me. Though I understand it's stunning, visually. The Red Sox and Rangers combined used a total of 11 pitchers in this rain-delayed game. The Rangers staff allowed no home runs off of the potent Boston bats. But they lose the game. Dice-K didn't have his best outing, but he was good enough to pick up the decision. And the Rangers certainly helped with some shoddy defense.

The newest addition to my roto-fantasy team, Ramon Vazquez, make me look good as a fantasy manager with a home run on his first day on the (fantasy) staff.

Saturday, May 26: CC Sabathia (6-1)(CLE) vs. Justin Verlander (5-1)(CLE)

CC didn't look too sharp in his last start. We'll see if that carries over.(Win Probability graphing by Fangraphs)
CC Sabathia: 7.0IP, 6H, 3R, 3ER, 1BB, 6SO, 1HR - W
Tom Mastny: 1.0IP, 0H, 0R, 0ER, 1BB, 1SO, 0HR - H
Joe Borowski: 1.0IP, 2H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 1SO, 0HR - SV

Justin Verlander: 6.0IP, 3H, 2R, 2ER, 4BB, 5SO, 1HR - ND
Bobby Seay: 1.0IP, 2H, 1R, 1ER, 1BB, 1SO, 0HR - BS
Jason Grilli: 0.0IP, 3H, 3R, 3ER, 0BB, 0SO, 1HR - L

CC Sabathia looked fine in this one. Though it was really Jason Grilli's inability to record an out that put this win in the bank for Cleveland.

Sunday, May 27: John Lackey (7-3)(LAA) vs. Mike Mussina (2-3)(NYY)

The moose seems less intimidating than in years past. We'll see if big John Lackey can hold off enough Yankee offense to let the Angels take this one.(Win Probability graphing by Fangraphs)
John Lackey: 8.0IP, 5H, 2R, 2ER, 2BB, 4SO, 0HR - W
Francisco Rodriguez: 1.0IP, 1H, 1R, 1ER, 1BB, 0SO, 0HR - SV

Mike Mussina: 6.1IP, 5H, 2R, 2ER, 1BB, 6SO, 0HR - ND
Scott Proctor: 0.0IP, 1H, 2R , 2ER, 3BB, 0SO, 0HR - BS, L

Sweep! Big John Lackey gets it done! That guy is the kind of ace the Yanks wish they had in their flailing rotation.

Taking unnatural pleasure in watching the Yankees get swept at home is an old habit that is hard to let go of. The bombers go 6-games under .500 with this one. And even more entertainingly: they're just one game ahead of the Devil Rays. Go Rays! The 1-2 punch of Scott Kazmir and James Shields seems more intimidating than Mike Mussina and Chien-Ming Wang at this point. (Wang was second place in Cy Young Award voting last year? What? There's too many New Yorkers stuffing that ballot box! I hope somebody notices what Shields is doing this year. Because the Yankees are definitely missing the spark that guy brings to the Rays' rotation.)

Mussina actually had a pretty good outing, which should calm at least one of the alarms about the Yankee rotation. But the offense wasn't there to support him. And Scott Proctor gave it all away with 3 walks, allowing 2 earned runs and no outs in relief. It seems unfair that a middle reliever can come into a game in the seventh inning and get saddled with a loss and a blown save when it's unlikely they would be called upon to record the save in the first place.

Speaking of saves, K-Rod recorded his 16th of the season with this one. Meanwhile... Mariano Rivera has only recorded 3 so far. He also has as many losses. Interesting...

3 picks: When there's no Dice-K... turn to the NL

2007-05-21T19:16:00.000-07:00

Tuesday, May 22: Cole Hamels (6-1)(PHI) vs. Scott Olsen (3-3)(FLA)

Cole Hamels has been impressive this year. And he's only getting more confident.(Win Probability graphing by Fangraphs)
Cole Hamels: 6.0IP, 6H, 5R, 5ER, 3BB, 8SO, 0HR - L

Scott Olsen: 6.0IP, 4H, 3R, 3ER, 3BB, 6SO, 2HR - W
Renyel Pinto: 1.0IP, 0H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 2SO, 0HR - H
Kevin Gregg: 1.0IP, 0H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 1SO, 0HR - SV

Kevin Gregg is closing games for the fish? Really? He seemed pretty underwhelming with the Angels last year. Olsen gets the win despite giving up 2 home runs. Though I understand he threw a good hissy fit on the mound just before the Marlins took the lead.

Wednesday, May 23: Chris Capuano (5-2)(MIL) vs. Brad Penny (5-1)(LAD)

As of today (May 21), both these teams sit in first place in their respective divisions. Of course, the Brewers meet the lower standards of the NL Central of just being the only team over .500. But the defending world series champions weren't that far over the glass-half-full mark when they won it all last year.(Win Probability graphing by Fangraphs)
Chris Capuano: 4.0IP, 8H, 4R, 4ER, 0BB, 4SO, 0HR - L

Brad Penny: 7.0IP, 6H, 0R, 0ER, 2BB, 4SO, 0HR - W

Those starting pitcher lines tell the story. Not a good outing for Capuano. Penny was pitching like an ace.

Thursday, May 24: Tom Glavine (5-1)(NYM) vs. John Smoltz (6-2)(ATL)

Two old-timers with winning records... and the press will make a lot of noise about them being former team-mates.(Win Probability graphing by Fangraphs)
Tom Glavine: 6.0IP, 5H, 2R, 2ER, 2BB, 2SO, 1HR - L

John Smoltz: 7.0IP, 7H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 5SO, 0HR - W
Rafael Soriano: 1.0IP, 0H, 0R, 0ER, 1BB, 1SO, 0HR - H
Bob Wickman: 1.0IP, 1H, 1R, 0ER, 0BB, 0SO, 0HR - SV

This is the way I like games pitched - tight, low scoring games. Though I can't say I was rooting for the home team in this one. It's hard to begrudge Smoltz his victory when he clearly out pitched Glavine in this one.

3 Picks: Dice-K in the Day of the Day/Night

2007-05-18T19:14:00.000-07:00

Saturday, May 19: Anthony Lerew (0-1)(ATL) vs. Daisuke Matsuzaka (5-2)(BOS)

Lerew has only one start in his big league career. And for start #2 he faces the Dice-K. Unless the Braves regain their sanity and swap him out for John Smoltz in this first game of a day/night double-header. That way Lerew could square up against Devern Hansack - another rookie with just two big league starts under his belt.(Win Probability graphing by Fangraphs)
Anthony Lerew: 2.0IP, 5H, 3R, 3ER, 2BB, 0SO, 2HR - L

Daisuke Matsuzaka: 8.0IP, 9H, 3R, 3ER, 0BB, 6SO, 1HR - W

As expected, Matsuzaka wins easily over Lerew (who only recorded 6-outs total, forcing the Braves to use 6 pitchers in the first game of the double-header) while Smoltz won the night-cap. I'm disappointed that these teams decided to go with such mis-matches for both games.

Sunday, May 20: Jose Contreras (3-4)(CHW) vs. Carlos Zambrano (4-3)(CHC)

I would pay to see these two face each other. Not to mention seeing the colorful personalities of managers Ozzie Guillen and Lou Pinella crossing paths in the windy city for the first time. Lou Pinella is the reason why I love baseball.
(Win Probability graphing by Fangraphs)
Nick Masset: 5.2IP, 3H, 2R, 2ER, 3BB, 3SO, 0HR - W
Mike MacDougal: 0.1IP, 0H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 0SO, 0HR - H

Carlos Zambrano: 6.2IP, 6H, 7R, 7ER, 4BB, 5SO, 1HR - L

Nick Masset makes an emergency start instead of Jose Contreras (who only had three days rest) and comes up big to salvage the third game of the series for the White Sox. Sorry Lou, but the Southsiders rule.

Monday, May 21: Aaron Cook (3-1)(COL) vs. Brandon Webb (3-3)(ARI)

This is a good pairing. And it should be low scoring too.(Win Probability graphing by Fangraphs)
Aaron Cook: 6.0IP, 6H, 4R, 4ER, 1BB, 2SO, 2HR - ND
Jorge Julio: 0.0IP, 2H, 1R, 1ER, 1BB, 0SO, 1HR - BS
Jeremy Affeldt: 2.0IP, 1H, 1R, 1ER, 2BB, 1SO, 0HR - L

Brandon Webb: 7.0IP, 8H, 5R, 5ER, 4BB, 7SO, 1HR - ND
Doug Slaten: 1.0IP, 0H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 2SO, 0HR - W
Jose Valverde: 1.0IP, 0H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 0HR - SV

So much for a low scoring game. It looks like Jorge Julio wasted no time blowing saves for Colorado the way he has been doing it for Florida this year. And he even did it against the team that traded him to Florida in the first place.

3 Picks: Interleague Time is Upon Us

2007-05-15T19:19:00.000-07:00

Wednesday, May 16: Bronson Arroyo (2-3)(CIN) vs. Jake Peavy (5-1)(SD)

These pitchers are having the kind of year people expected from them last year. Which is to say Peavy is impressive this year and Arroyo is back to under-achieving.(Win Probability graphing by Fangraphs)
Bronson Arroyo: 8.0IP, 10H, 3R, 1ER, 2BB, 6SO, 0HR - L

Jake Peavy: 7.0IP, 9H, 2R, 2ER, 1BB 5SO, 0HR - ND
Trevor Hoffman: 1.0IP, 1H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 1SO, 0HR - W

Arroyo got the complete game the hard way - 8 innings in a losing effort as the visiting team. It seems like Peavy can toss 5 strikeouts or 15. The Padres will find a way to keep him from recording a win regardless.

Thursday, May 17: Ben Sheets (3-2)(MIL) vs. Freddy Garcia (1-2)(PHI)

How will Freddy fare against Prince Fielder, JJ Hardy and the crew? I keep waiting for Garcia to turn it on for the Phillies. And there's some bats in the Brewers' lineup that could test him in this one.
(Win Probability graphing by Fangraphs)
Ben Sheets: 7.2IP, 5H, 2R, 2ER, 1BB, 8SO, 0HR - W
Francisco Cordero: 1.1IP, 1H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 2SO, 0HR - SV

Freddy Garcia: 5.2IP, 7H, 2R, 2ER, 2BB, 5SO, 2HR - L

Okay, so it was Gabe Gross who ended up taking Freddy deep... twice. Garcia actually pitched well as those two home runs came with the bases empty. But Ben Sheets was just unbelievable in this one.

Friday, May 18: Barry Zito (3-4)(SF) vs. Chad Gaudin (2-1)(OAK)

Barry Zito's trip over the Bay Bridge to face his old team is going to be getting a lot of the attention this year as interleague play starts up.(Win Probability graphing by Fangraphs)
Barry Zito: 4.0IP, 6H, 7R, 7ER, 7BB, 2SO, 1HR - L

Chad Gaudin: 6.0IP, 7H, 2H, 2R, 2ER, 2BB, 2SO, 0HR - W

Ouch! You'd think Zito would know how to pitch to American League hitters... but then I guess he never faced the A's when he was pitching for them. It was as if he was still playing for his old team as he walked 7! in just 4 innings of work. That's a WHIP of 3.25 for the appearance and a recipe for a blowout.

3 Picks: From Humidors Back to Knuckleballs

2007-05-12T19:51:00.000-07:00

Sunday, May 13: Matt Cain (1-3)(SF) vs. Taylor Buchholz (1-1)(COL)

Buchholz came over to the Rockies in the deal that sent Jennings down to Houston. I'm curious to see how he matches up at home against Cain in this one.(Win Probability graphing by Fangraphs)
Matt Cain: 6.0IP, 5H, 1R, 1ER, 3BB, 6SO, 0HR - W

Taylor Buchholz: 4.2IP, 12H, 8R, 8ER, 1BB, 7SO, 1HR - L

So how did Taylor Buchholz do at the mile high today? Not good. A dozen hits over less than 5-innings of work. Ouch. Oh, and rookie center fielder Fred Lewis hit for the cycle for the Giants. Most impressive.

Monday, May 14: Nate Robertson (3-2)(DET) vs. Daisuke Matsuzaka (4-2)(BOS)

This is a match up worthy of the Dice-K hype. I'm a big fan of lefty Nate Robertson and he should be able to hold his own against the gyro baller.(Win Probability graphing by Fangraphs)
Nate Robertson: 5.0IP, 11H, 3H, 3R, 3ER, 0BB, 3SO, 0HR - L

Daisuke Matsuzaka: 9.0IP, 6H, 1R, 1ER, 0BB, 5SO, 1HR - W

A complete game from the Dice-K - giving up just the one run on the Curtis Granderson homer. Robertson's 11-hits over 5 innings couldn't overcome that performance.

Tuesday, May 15: Justin Verlander (3-1)(DET) vs. Tim Wakefield (4-3)(BOS)

Last year's Rookie of the Year Justin Verlander goes up against the age, wisdom, knuckleball, and AL League best ERA (1.79!!!) of Tim Wakefield.(Win Probability graphing by Fangraphs)
Justin Verlander: 7.2IP, 6H, 2R, 2ER, 0BB, 7SO, 1HR - W

Tim Wakefield: 7.0IP, 9H, 5R, 5ER, 1BB, 4SO, 2HR - L

Magglio Magglio Magglio. Ordonez hits the bomb that put this game squarely in the Tigers' grasp. Verlander strikes out 7 on no walks allowed. That's good control.

3 Picks: Knuckleballs and Humidors

2007-05-09T17:28:00.000-07:00

Thursday, May 10: Tim Wakefield (3-3)(BOS) vs. Roy Halladay (4-1)(TOR)

It's knuckleball versus the early front runner for the AL Cy Young Award.(Win Probability graphing by Fangraphs)
Tim Wakefield: 7.0IP, 3H, 0R, 0ER, 1BB, 5SO, 0HR - W

Roy Halladay: 5.0IP, 11H, 8R, 7ER, 0BB, 2SO, 1HR - L

Halladay did not look like himself at all in this one. With Chacin on the DL and BJ Ryan getting Tommy John elbow surgery the Blue Jays have been getting a lot of bad breaks lately. Even when they had the bases loaded in the first inning in this one - when it looked like they would get to Tim Wakefield - Troy Glaus got picked off on a snap throw to end the inning and that just looked bad in a way that injured pitching doesn't account for. Wakefield, on the other hand, is probably the most under rated talent in the American League as the Red Sox are looking like early favorites to take the pennant this year.

Friday, May 11: Scott Kazmir (2-1)(TB) vs. AJ Burnett (2-3)(TOR)

Nice match up on this one. Both of these guys have an explosive fast ball in their arsenal and the ability to dominate when their command is on.(Win Probability graphing by Fangraphs)
Scott Kazmir: 6.1IP, 9H, 5R, 4ER, 3BB, 6SO, 1HR - L

AJ Burnett: 6.2IP, 5H, 1R, 1ER, 5BB, 10SO, 1HR - W
Casey Janssen: 1.1IP, 2H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 1SO, 0HR - H

This one was a pleasure to watch. And the Jays needed a start like this from Burnett to put the brakes on their skid. 10 big strike outs in 6 and two-thirds!

Saturday, May 12: Barry Zito (3-3)(SF) vs. Jeff Francis (1-4)(COL)

Barry Zito brings his muffins to the Mile High to throw a little humidor ball.(Win Probability graphing by Fangraphs)
Barry Zito: 6.0IP, 6H, 6R, 6ER, 3BB, 0SO, 3HR - L

Jeff Francis: 8.0IP, 4H, 2R, 2ER, 1BB, 5SO, 1HR - W

Barry's transition to the National League looked pretty rough at the mile-high. No strike outs over 6 innings of work - with 6 earned runs allowed. Giving up three home runs will do a number on his season ERA.

3 Picks: Following the Phillies and a Dice-K Start

2007-05-06T11:09:00.000-07:00

Monday, May 7: Freddy Garcia (1-2)(PHI) vs. Doug Davis (2-3)(ARI)

Two starting pitchers looking to endear themselves to their new teams. Both have losing records thus far and a chance to reach .500 with a win in this contest.
(Win Probability Graphing by Fangraphs)
Freddy Garcia: 6.0IP, 5H, 2R, 2ER, 0BB, 2SO, 0HR - ND
Francisco Rosario: 1.0IP, 2H, 1R, 1ER, 1BB, 0SO, 0HR - L

Doug Davis: 6.0IP, 5H, 2R, 2ER, 3BB, 4SO, 0HR - ND
Tony Pena: 1.0IP, 0H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 0SO, 0HR - BS
Brandon Lyon: 1.0IP, 2H, 1R, 1ER, 0BB, 0SO, 0HR - BS, W
Jose Valverde: 1.0IP, 0H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 0SO, 0HR - SV

Another tough break for the Phillies. They're overdue to start having things go in their favor at some point. Though I think a lot of folks underestimate the D-Backs.

Tuesday, May 8: Adam Eaton (3-2)(PHI) vs. Micah Owings (1-1)(ARI)

Owings is the rookie the D-Backs turned to when the Big Unit wasn't up for his first time around in the rotation. And he's shown a lot of potential since then.
(Win Probability Graphing by Fangraphs)
Adam Eaton: 7.0IP, 7H, 3R, 3ER, 1BB, 4SO, 2HR - L

Micah Owings: 7.0IP, 5H, 2R, 2ER, 2BB, 2SO, 2HR - W
Brandon Lyon: 1.0IP, 0H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 2SO, 0HR - H
Tony Pena: 1.0IP, 0H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 1SO, 0HR - SV

The Phillies seem to be all set to dig themselves into a deep hole this season. It's going to get really ugly if they don't turn things around soon. Though the smart money was on Owings over Eaton in this one.

Wednesday, May 9: Daisuke Matsuzaka (3-2)(BOS) vs. Tomo Ohka (2-3)(TOR)

The Dice-K obsession makes a return trip to Toronto.(Win Probability Graphing by Fangraphs)
Daisuke Matsuzaka: 7.0IP, 5H, 1R, 1ER, 3BB, 8SO, 1HR - W

Tomo Ohka: 4.2IP, 6H, 3R, 3ER, 5BB, 2SO, 0HR - L

The Blue Jays are reeling in a big way. (Not unlike the Phillies.) The Red Sox had no problem figuring out Tomo Ohka.

3 Picks: Three from the National League

2007-05-03T09:34:00.000-07:00

Friday, May 4: Jamie Moyer (3-1)(PHI) vs. Matt Morris (3-1)(SF)

With Myers demoted to the bullpen... is Jamie Moyer the official ace of the Phillies rotation?(Win Probability graphing by Fangraphs)
Jamie Moyer: 7.0IP, 5H, 3R, 3ER, 1BB, 3SO, 0HR - L

Matt Morris: 7.0IP, 8H, 2R, 2ER, 3BB, 1SO, 0HR - W
Brad Hennessey: 1.0IP, 1H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 2SO, 0HR - H

There's simply no justice for the Phillies. Both starters go 7 full innings with a quality outing. And the guy with the poor 3:1 base on balls to strikeouts ratio gets the win over the guy with the 1:3 ratio. The Phillies are due several breaks at some point this season.

Saturday, May 5: Aaron Cook (0-1)(COL) vs. Aaron Harang (4-0)(CIN)

It's Aaron versus Aaron. And both should be accustomed to hitting-friendly ballparks at this point.(Win Probability graphing by Fangraphs)
Aaron Cook: 5.1IP, 10H, 5R, 5ER, 3BB, 4SO, 1HR - W
Denny Bautista: 1.2IP, 0H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 1SO, 0HR - H
Manny Corpas: 0.1IP, 1H, 0R, 0ER, 1BB, 1SO, 0HR - H
Brian Fuentes: 1.0IP, 1H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 1SO, 0HR - SV

Aaron Harang: 5.0IP, 8H, 5R, 5ER, 1BB, 8SO, 0HR - L

Another high scoring game at the Great American Ballpark. Harang's 8 strikeouts in just 5 innings of work is impressive. As he's saddled with the loss for this outing.

Sunday, May 6: Jake Peavy (3-1)(SD) vs. Scott Olsen (3-1)(FLA)

This is a match-up that should yield plenty of strike outs.(Win Probability graphing by Fangraphs)

Jake Peavy: 7.0IP, 1H, 1R, 0ER, 2BB, 10SO, 0HR - W
Cla Meredith: 1.0IP, 1H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 0SO, 0HR - H
Trevor Hoffman: 1.0IP, 0H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 1SO, 0HR - SV

Scott Olsen: 6.2IP, 4H, 2R, 1ER, 3BB, 4SO, 0HR - L

This one was a recipe for strikeouts: 18 of the 54 outs this game came via the K. No home runs allowed on either side as well. A true duel.

3 Picks: No Snow Delays in May

2007-04-30T21:14:00.000-07:00

Tuesday, May 1: AJ Burnett (2-1)(TOR) vs. CC Sabathia (3-0)(CLE)

It's AJ versus CC as the initials of the American League go at it in Cleveland.(Win Probability Graphing by Fangraphs)
AJ Burnett: 5.0IP, 8H, 7R, 7ER, 4BB, 7SO, 2HR - L

CC Sabathia: 6.0IP, 4H, 3R, 3ER, 0BB, 9SO, 3HR - W

I had expected a better start from AJ in this one. CC getting 9 strikeouts in 6 innings of work is ace-like. He clearly outpitched the Jays in this one.

Wednesday, May 2: Freddy Garcia (1-1)(PHI) vs. Chuck James (3-2)(ATL)

I'm a long time Freddy Garcia fan. And I'm intrigued by Chuck James given his great numbers in his rookie year last year. That makes for a compelling match up.
(Win Probability Graphing by Fangraphs)
Freddy Garcia: 5.0IP, 7H, 4R, 4ER, 2BB, 2SO, 0HR - L

Chuck James: 5.0IP, 8H, 3R, 3ER, 1BB, 6SO, 1HR - ND
Chad Paronto: 1.0IP, 0H, 0R, 0ER, 1BB, 0SO, 0HR - W
Tyler Yates: 1.0IP, 0H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 1SO, 0HR - H
Mike Gonzalez: 1.0IP, 0H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 2SO, 0HR - H
Rafael Soriano: 1.0IP, 1H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 0SO, 0HR - SV

The Braves bullpen showed a lot of depth in this contest. I'm still unhappy with the Soriano for Ramirez trade that gave Atlanta this outstanding reliever. He picked up his second save of the season in this one and could go on to be Atlanta's closer in the long run.

Thursday, May 3: Horacio Ramirez (2-1)(SEA) vs. Daisuke Matsuzaka (3-2)(BOS)

The smart money is not on Ramirez in this one. The D-Mat saga continues.(Win Probability Graphing by Fangraphs)

Horacio Ramirez: 4.0IP, 11H, 7R, 7ER, 3BB, 4SO, 1HR - ND
Chris Reitsma: 2.0IP, 3H, 1R, 1ER, 0BB, 2SO, 1HR - L

Daisuke Matsuzaka: 5.0IP, 5H, 7R, 7ER, 5BB, 1SO, 0HR - ND
Brendan Donnelly: 1.1IP, 0H, 0R, 0ER, 1BB, 0SO, 0HR - W
JC Romero: 1.0IP, 0H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 0SO, 0HR - SV

This one was had some poor pitching. Which is sadly only surprising on the Boston end side of the equation. Former Angels pitchers Donnelly and Romero brought their familiarity with their former division foe to pick up the win and save respectively.

3-picks: April Baseball Winding Down

2007-04-27T04:54:00.000-07:00

Saturday, April 28: Jered Weaver (0-2)(LAA) vs. Jon Garland (0-1)(CHW)

Jered Weaver and Jon Garland were the best starting pitchers for their respective teams last year. Now they both come into this game looking for their first win of the '07 campaign.(Win Probability Graphing by Fangraphs)

Jered Weaver: 5.2IP, 6H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 5SO, 0HR - W
Justin Speier: 1.0IP, 2H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 1SO, 0HR - H
Scot Shields: 1.1IP, 0H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 0SO, 0HR - H
Francisco Rodriguez: 1.0IP, 0H, 0R, 0ER, 1BB, 3SO, 0HR - SV

Jon Garland: 7.0IP, 5H, 3R, 3ER, 1BB, 0SO, 1HR - L

Angels get the shutout! Only one walk allowed by the entire staff for this one. On both sides. This one was a real display of control. Weaver gets that first win recorded while K-Rod gets save number 7.

Sunday, April 29: Johan Santana (3-2)(MIN) vs. Mike Maroth (2-0)(DET)

Santana pitching on a Sunday afternoon. It doesn't get any better than that.(Win Probability Graphing by Fangraphs)

Johan Santana: 6.0IP, 3H, 3R, 3ER, 3BB, 6SO, 2HR - ND
Jesse Crain: 1.0IP, 2H, 1R, 1ER, 0BB, 1SO, 1HR - L

Matt Maroth: 6.2IP, 9H, 3R, 3ER, 1BB, 3SO, 1HR - ND
Todd Jones: 1.0IP, 0H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 0SO, 0HR - W

The walk off homer from Brandon Inge made the Detroit closer the winning pitcher in this contest. Santana gave up 2 long balls and walked 3 in 6 innings. That's a little unusual for the normally dominant Santana.

Monday, April 30: Brandon Webb (1-1)(ARI) vs. Randy Wolf (3-2)(LAD)

Randy Wolf has exceeded expectations thus far for the Dodgers. And he goes up against a guy who hit the ceiling of expectation last year with that NL Cy Young Award. This should be a low scoring game.