Wednesday, May 07, 2008

The Four Keys to Winning Your Fantasy Baseball League

Few diversions appeal to the twin demons of obsession and competitiveness like fantasy baseball. After a solid yet fascinating smack-down in my first year of play I've managed to crack the code of schooling one's friends and enemies around the league. Here are the four keys to bragging rights:

1. Draft wisely

Pick the best available player. Every time. Every round. Don't worry about filling empty positions. You can always trade for a catcher if you're sitting on five top-shelf first basemen. How you draft will be the difference between working the waiver wire to defend your lead versus working the waiver wire for a miracle.

2. Pitchers are fragile things

Last year, my second round pick was Chris Carpenter. The 2005 NL Cy Young Award winner had just one start that went 6 innings with a 7.50 ERA and hasn't pitched a game since while he recovers from Tommy John elbow surgery. Very few starting pitchers (or relievers) merit a high draft pick. Judging from the number of quality pitchers still on the waiver wire it's tempting to not draft pitchers at all. Johan Santana, Jake Peavy and Brandon Webb are the elite few worthy of a draft pick. And you do need to draft a closer or two to avoid getting frozen out of the saves category. But it's also possible to pick up great pitching all through the year if one pays attention to the unexpected success stories that shape up every season. Chances are you will have a pitcher sitting in your DL slot more often than not given the way injuries plague hurlers.

Last year I drafted Brett Myers and was initially horrified as the opening day starter was converted into the team's closer. But he had value in that role and it looks as though history may repeat itself with John Smoltz - who I drafted in a late round this year - as he looks to return as the Braves' closer for the second time in his illustrious career.

3. Let the rest of the league load up on "home town" favorites

There's always at least one of these guys in every league. It's not enough to be a part of Red Sox Nation - they also want half of the roster on their fantasy team. Or they'll load up on Yankee pitching (a dubious call this season), Cubs batting or make a trade to complete their collection of Dodgers. While these are great teams, they compete in the real world against 29 other teams loaded with talent. In fantasy, you want to build a team with the best available from all 30 teams as that will beat any real world team every time. The guys who load up on their "favorites" tend to lose to players with better strategy. This is particularly true when it comes to grabbing elite, but almost "unknown" talent from small-market teams. Carl Crawford and James Shields would be super stars if they weren't Tampa Bay Rays. Kansas City starter Brian Bannister was my early sleeper pick this year. Who knew that Arizona Diamondbacks third baseman Mark Reynolds would get off to such an explosive start this year?

4. Nothing makes your team slump faster than talking trash

My head-to-head team, The Therimaniacs, is undefeated so far. They rule. They're the greatest team ever. The other guys in my league aren't even a challenge. Having said all that, I can fully expect the bats to grow cold and the pitching staff to blow a gazillion save opportunities while posting an ERA just one run over infinity.

Therimaniacs (40-19-6) after the draft:
C - Ronny Paulino (PIT)
1B - Albert Pujols (STL)
2B - Placido Polanco (DET)
3B - Garrett Atkins (COL)
SS - Carlos Guillen (DET)
OF - Ichiro Suzuki (SEA)
OF - Carlos Lee (HOU)
OF - Brad Hawpe (COL)
Util - Derrek Lee (CHC)
BN - Michael Young (SS, TEX)
BN - Nick Swisher (1B, OF, CHW)
BN - Todd Helton (1B, COL)
BN - Edgar Renteria (SS, DET)
BN - Raul Ibanez (OF, SEA)
BN - Mike Napoli (C, LAA)

SP - John Smoltz (ATL)
SP - Rich Hill (CHC)
SP - Dontrelle Willis (DET)
RP - Rafael Soriano (ATL)
RP - Todd Jones (DET)
RP - Rafael Betancourt (CLE)

Therimaniacs (40-19-6) as of today:
C - Mike Napoli (LAA)
1B - Albert Pujols (STL)
2B - Placido Polanco (DET)
3B - Garrett Atkins (COL)
SS - Erick Aybar (LAA)
OF - Ichiro Suzuki (SEA)
OF - Carlos Lee (HOU)
OF - Raul Ibanez (SEA)
Util - Derrek Lee (CHC)
BN - Carlos Guillen (1B, 3B, SS, DET)
BN - Jose Lopez (2B, SEA)
BN - Michael Young (SS, TEX)
BN - Evan Longoria (3B, TB)

SP - Cliff Lee (CLE)
SP - Micah Owings (ARI)
SP - Scott Olsen (FLA)
RP - C.J. Wilson (TEX)
RP - Brandon Lyon (ARI)
RP - Kerry Wood (CHC)
RP - Todd Jones (DET)
BN - Joba Chamberlain (RP, NYY)
DL - John Smoltz (SP, ATL)