Bringing the Knuckleball to Seattle

I have a particular fondness for pitchers who build their career on odd pitches. Bring a good eephus or gyro-ball to the plate and I'll be hanging on every pitch. Go against the grain with lots of change-ups and pristine location on off speed offerings (a la Jamie Moyer) and I'll be your biggest fan. Feed hitters a steady diet of sinkers without getting burned and I'm fascinated. The knuckleball is one of those novelties that draws me in.

One day, when I was working on a baseball video game as my day job, Angels broadcaster Steve Physioc was in the booth recording a couple dozen generic introductions for knuckleball pitchers. It was near the end of a long day of recording and Physioc commented that "these sure are a lot of lines just for Time Wakefield." There are never many knuckleball pitchers in the majors, but those who master that off speed wonder pitch with all of its unpredictable movement in and around the strike zone can pitch their way well into the twilight years of a big league career.

You can count on just two hairy knuckles the number of pitchers in the majors who feature this dancing pitch and this year one of them is pitching for my team. I can't help but wish RA Dickey great success this year. He could be an important part of a good run for the 2008 M's. Mike Bauman has a nice profile piece about him. I hope Kenji Johjima is up for the unusual challenge of catching this crazy pitch.

2008 Forcasting

There's already two games in the books, this Sunday will make it three. Then there will be the other 2,427 games scheduled after that. It's a good time for the dubious task of predicting the future.

American League Central

1 - Detroit Tigers
2 - Cleveland Indians (wild card)
3 - Minnesota Twins
4 - Chicago White Sox
5 - Kansas City Royals

This has to be a good year to be a Tigers fan. I think Dontrelle Willis bolsters an already outstanding pitching staff and the change of scenery (not to mention run support) could bring out the D-Train of 2003 and 2005 when he was an elite pitcher. Offensively, the addition of Miguel Cabrera makes this an intimidating lineup. Cleveland will make a good run, but that one-two punch of pitching and offense heavily favors Detroit going into this campaign.

American League East

1 - Boston Red Sox
2 - New York Yankees
3 - Toronto Blue Jays
4 - Tampa Bay Rays
5 - Baltimore Orioles

I'd pick the Orioles to finish lower, but there's only 5 teams in this division. The Rays will have a good surge at some point this year, putting together good outings from Shields and Kazmir along with explosive run support. But I just don't see them sustaining anything that threatens the Boston-New York hegemony.

American League West

1 - Seattle Mariners
2 - Los Angeles Angels
3 - Texas Rangers
4 - Oakland Athletics

Go Mariners. This year, I'm believing.

ALDS
Detroit Tigers defeat Seattle Mariners
Boston Red Sox defeat Cleveland Indians

(Apparently, my believing doesn't extend into post-season predictions.)

ALCS
Detroit Tigers defeat Boston Red Sox

National League Central

1 - Chicago Cubs
2 - Milwaukee Brewers
3 - Cincinnati Reds
4 - St. Louis Cardinals
5 - Houston Astros
6 - Pittsburgh Pirates

This is a weak division. It's not hard to envision the Cubs defending their division title here.

National League East

1 - New York Mets
2 - Philadelphia Phillies (wild card)
3 - Atlanta Braves
4 - Washington Nationals
5 - Florida Marlins

The 1-2 punch of Johan Santana and Pedro Martinez tips this one squarely in favor of New York. Though the Phillies will probably score enough runs to be serious contenders. The Fish will easily sink to the bottom of this division no matter how bad the pitching is in DC.

National League West

1 - Arizona Diamondbacks
2 - San Diego Padres
3 - Colorado Rockies
4 - Los Angeles Dodgers
5 - San Francisco Giants

The D-Backs pitching will be the big story this year. The Rockies' Cinderella story from last year will get a little.... rocky this time around.

NLDS
New York Mets defeat the Arizona Diamondbacks
Philadelphia Phillies defeat the Chicago Cubs

NLCS
Philadelphia Phillies defeat the New York Mets

World Series
Detroit Tigers defeat the Philadelphia Phillies

I picked the Phillies last year and was completely wrong. I picked the Cardinals the year before that and got it right. On that track record I'd say the Tigers have a 50% chance of winning it all this year.

More on that Seattle Rotation

The consistently insightful David Pinto confirms my optimism for the Mariner's starting rotation. I'm even entertaining thoughts of Jarrod Washburn having a career year. His best year came in 2002 with the Angels. He was fourth in the Cy Young voting that year with a 3.15 ERA on a team that won the championship. His two seasons with Seattle haven't been anything close to that. But that last spring training start does seem promising.

Even if the thought of Carlos Silva allowing many, many balls in play raises doubts, just remember the pitching friendly dimensions of Safeco Field, one JJ Putz in the bullpen and no Jeff Weaver on the roster this year.

That's One in the Books: Boston 1-0, Oakland 0-1

(Win Probability graphing from Fangraphs)

What a way to start the season! Lots of drama for the fans in Tokyo, a good dose of Dice-K (who looked terrible in the first inning, but improved from there), Hideki Okajima, extra innings, a blown save from Huston Street and a shaky save from Jonathan Papelbon.

The best story coming out of this is the ninth inning heroics of Brandon Moss - a late addition to the lineup to fill in for an ailing JD Drew - tying everything up with a solo shot. I'm skeptical of Drew's perpetual "ailing" status. He has a lot of natural talent, but has he ever logged in more than 140 - 145 games in a single season? Usually less. It's nice to see Moss step it up in his stead.

The other blast from a relative unknown was the two run shot by Jack Hannahan. That was an impressive cut and a taste of the surprises in store with this year's young Oakland staff.

Dice-K on Day One

Tuesday, March 25, 2008
Daisuke Matsuzaka (0-0)(BOS) vs. Joe Blanton (0-0)(OAK)

It seems fitting that the starting pitcher that became an obsession over the 2007 season would get the nod in the first official game of the 2008 campaign - as a defending world champion no less. He clearly wore down over the long season last year. And he had an ERA you could tune orchestras to (4.40, as in A 440 Hz), which is not overly impressive. But there's that mystique of the fabled "gyro ball." And when he's on his game, he can be a lot of fun to watch in action.
Matsuzaka's 2008 projection: 4.01 ERA/1.280 WHIP/200.0 IP/16-10

Blanton, on the other hand, is a better pitcher than most people realize. I don't know if he's "opening day" ace material. But his 2007 ERA was 3.95 and with that 1.217 WHIP he was effective at keeping the bases clear. And he does get to throw the first official pitch of the year.

The A's starting rotation is interesting - if somewhat less than what we've seen in Oakland in past years:
Joe Blanton - 2008 projection: 4.14 ERA/1.315 WHIP/213.0 IP/15-11
Rich Harden - 2008 projection: 3.26 ERA/1.174 WHIP/69.0 IP/5-2
Chad Gaudin - 2008 projection: 4.14 ERA/1.460 WHIP/150.0 IP/8-11
Justin Duchscherer (reprising his starting role) - 2008 projection: 3.12 ERA/1.163 WHIP/49.0 IP/4-3
Lenny DiNardo - 2008 projection: 4.36 ERA/1.495 WHIP/99.0 IP/5-7

If those projections hold out, the A's will be looking for spot starters and hurlers capable of eating innings. But the prospect - and the gamble - of a healthy Rich Hardin has to be tantalizing.

What is this Feeling? Optimism?

With a new season just days off there's more than the usual post-spring training optimism surrounding this year's Mariners organization. After a tantalizing late-season run (followed by an even later-season collapse) there's something about this year's starting rotation that gives this M's fan hope that they can hold their own in the American League West. They'll need to keep the Angels off the board (something sorely lacking in today's pre-season exchange). But it's been a while since the Mariners have gone into a season with expectations beyond an over-.500 record.

(1) Erik Bedard
The M's actually made a big trade to pull in this 2007 Cy Young candidate (5th in overall voting) and acquired an ace.
Projected: 3.48 ERA/1.222 WHIP/207.0 IP/15-8

(2) Felix Hernandez
The young phenom is still the King. And still destined to put together brilliant outings with experience.
Projected: 3.54 ERA/1.214 WHIP/206.0 IP/15-8

(3) Jarrod Washburn
Projected: 4.52 ERA/1.386 WHIP/189.0 IP/9-14

(4) Carlos Silva
Projected: 4.57 ERA/1.378 WHIP/193.0 IP/10-13

(5) Miguel Batista
Projected: 4.52 ERA/1.533 WHIP/197.0IP/12-12

There's not a lot on the back end of that rotation to scare too many teams. But bring a small lead into the late innings and the Mariners have an elite closer on hand to convert the victory.

Closer: J.J. Putz
Projected: 1.88 ERA/0.875 WHIP/72.0 IP/39 SV

Also in the wings, in the bullpen, and on hand for spot starts is a knuckle-baller who bears keeping an eye on: R.A. Dickey. He has struggled in the past few seasons. But the more pitching friendly Safeco Field could be just the place to put that behind him. It's hard not to root for someone attempting to build a career on that knuckler.